Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

The economy should have performed fairly well in the fourth quarter, likely supported by solid fixed investment and government consumption, although high-frequency indicators paint a nuanced picture. On one hand, tourist arrivals grew at a double-digit pace in October. On the other, growth in retail sales and merchandise exports was soft in the same month, while the manufacturing PMI declined for the third straight month in November and now hovers only slightly above contractionary territory. This comes after economic growth was solid in Q3 thanks to domestic demand, despite edging down from Q2. In mid-November, the government announced plans to relax foreign-ownership rules in numerous economic sectors, which should support FDI inflows going forward. Also in November, Indonesia concluded a trade deal with the four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members, although the boost to the external sector will likely only be mild.

Indonesia Economic Growth

Domestic demand should continue to underpin the economy, with private consumption supported by a strong labor market and government consumption likely receiving a boost ahead of elections in April 2019. However, tighter monetary policy, delays to public infrastructure projects and cooling Chinese momentum could drag on the performance, while a possible resurgence of U.S.-China trade tensions poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 5.2% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% again in 2020.

Indonesia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)249252255259262
GDP per capita (USD)3,6723,5323,3693,6053,876
GDP (USD bn)9148918619331,015
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.65.04.95.05.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.45.15.05.04.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.04.45.04.56.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)4.44.64.34.34.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)12.914.513.311.02.9
Unemployment Rate6.25.96.25.65.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.1-2.6-2.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.024.327.528.930.5
Money (annual variation in %)12.811.99.010.08.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.18.43.43.03.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.46.46.43.53.8
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.757.504.754.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.022.3-12.115.320.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,17012,38513,78813,47313,568
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10,44911,86613,39213,30213,383
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.2-3.1-2.0-1.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-29.1-27.5-17.5-17.0-17.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.1-2.27.79.511.8
Exports (USD billion)183176150145169
Imports (USD billion)187178143136157
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.9-3.6-14.6-3.416.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.6-4.5-19.9-4.915.7
International Reserves (USD)99.4112106116130
External Debt (% of GDP)29.132.936.134.334.8

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Indonesia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.98-0.05 %Jan 14
Exchange Rate14,1240.05 %Jan 14
Stock Market6,336-0.32 %Jan 14

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