Indonesia Economic Outlook
November 12, 2019Economic momentum eased marginally in the third quarter according to recent data. Both private and government consumption slowed as the boost from election-related spending ebbed. Moreover, fixed investment growth fell to a three-year low, likely due in part to import controls. However, the contribution from the external sector strengthened, as these same controls led to a sharp fall in imports. Turning to the fourth quarter, economic activity is likely broadly unchanged, as recent substantial monetary easing should be providing support to the domestic economy. That said, signs from the manufacturing sector are discouraging: The PMI fell to a near four-year low in October amid lower production and new orders. Meanwhile, in the political arena, President Jokowi announced his new cabinet in mid-October. Market-friendly Sri Mulyani was reappointed as finance minister, boding well for business sentiment.
Indonesia Economic GrowthEconomic growth is seen fairly stable next year. While fixed investment is seen picking up on recent tax incentives and greater infrastructure spending, this will be largely offset by a weaker external sector as imports rebound. Souring global trade relations and a slowdown in China pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 5.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in 2021.
Indonesia Economy Data
5 years of Indonesia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.35||-0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||14,153||0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||6,270||-0.32 %||Sep 04|
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Indonesia Economic News
November 6, 2019
In September, retail sales increased 0.7% year-on-year, below August’s 1.1% rise and falling short of the Central Bank’s initial estimate of 2.1%.
November 5, 2019
The economy expanded 5.0% in the third quarter, according to recent data released by Statistics Indonesia, down from Q2’s revised 5.1% figure (previously reported: +5.0% year-on-year) but matching market expectations. The domestic economy lost steam in Q3.
November 1, 2019
Indonesia’s manufacturing sector weakened in October according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit, with the reading dropping to a near four-year low of 47.7, down from 49.1 in September.
November 1, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.02% in October over the prior month, contrasting September’s 0.27% decrease.
October 24, 2019
At its 23–24 October monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate from 5.25% to 5.00%, as had been widely expected by market analysts.