Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

October 20, 2020

After GDP fell sharply in Q2, economic conditions likely remained muted in Q3, with elevated infection rates limiting any rebound. Retail sales fell markedly in July and August—albeit at a softer rate than in Q2—suggesting still-subdued private consumption. Moreover, exports declined throughout Q3, while the manufacturing PMI returned to contractionary territory in September amid the reimposition of large-scale restrictions in Jakarta. Turning to Q4, the easing of restrictions in Jakarta from early October should aid momentum, although still-high Covid-19 cases risk renewed lockdowns. Also in early October, parliament approved the “omnibus” bill, overhauling business, labor and environmental laws. The bill loosens limits on FDI, liberalizes the labor market and streamlines the process of obtaining business and environmental permits, and should support the economy ahead.

Indonesia Economic Growth

The economy is set to rebound next year, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus. The omnibus bill could also buoy investment to an extent. However, uncertainty over the evolution and duration of the pandemic clouds the outlook. The possible poor execution of spending measures—which limited the effectiveness of the fiscal response earlier this year—is a further risk. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.0% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, GDP is seen growing 5.2%.

Indonesia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)256258261264267
GDP per capita (USD)3,3683,6073,8853,9464,194
GDP (USD bn)8619321,0151,0421,120
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.95.05.15.25.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.05.04.95.15.0
Investment (annual variation in %)5.04.56.26.64.4
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)4.34.34.34.33.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)13.311.02.93.73.9
Unemployment Rate6.25.65.55.35.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.5-2.6-1.7-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.028.029.430.130.4
Money (annual variation in %)9.010.08.36.36.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.43.03.63.22.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.43.53.83.32.8
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.504.754.256.005.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-12.115.320.0-2.51.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13,78813,47313,56814,38013,883
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)13,39213,30213,38314,23314,141
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-1.8-1.6-2.9-2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-17.5-17.0-16.2-30.6-30.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.79.511.8-8.7-3.2
Exports (USD billion)150145169180167
Imports (USD billion)143136157189171
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.6-3.416.36.6-7.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-19.9-4.915.720.2-9.5
International Reserves (USD)106116130121129
External Debt (% of GDP)36.134.334.736.036.1

Sample Report

5 years of Indonesia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Indonesia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.10-0.05 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate13,8830.05 %Jan 01

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Indonesia Economic News

Search form