Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

After starting the year on a strong note, high-frequency data for Q1 hints at a slowdown in momentum amid a record-high number of Covid-19 cases in mid-February and a tightening of associated restrictions. After consumer confidence hit an over two-year high in January, it quickly dropped to a six-month low in March. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI averaged lower in Q1 as the health situation weighed on demand. That said, a robust external sector should somewhat offset the domestic downturn, as Indonesia’s main exports—coal, palm oil and nickel—will likely benefit from surging commodity prices. Lastly, the IMF finished its Article IV consultation in the country, heralding authorities for balancing a supportive response to the pandemic with macroeconomic and financial stability, but warned that risks remain skewed to the downside.

Indonesia Economic Growth

The economy is projected to grow at a quicker pace this year compared to 2021. Accelerating household spending, bolstered by a swift vaccine rollout and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, should fuel domestic demand. Moreover, the external sector stands to strengthen due to higher commodity prices. That said, the pandemic continues to weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. GDP is seen growing 5.2% in 2023.

Indonesia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)256258261264267
GDP per capita (USD)3,3683,6073,8853,9464,194
GDP (USD bn)8619321,0151,0421,120
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.95.05.15.25.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.05.04.95.15.0
Investment (annual variation in %)5.04.56.26.64.4
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)4.34.34.34.33.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)13.311.02.93.73.9
Unemployment Rate6.25.65.55.35.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.5-2.6-1.7-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.028.029.430.130.4
Money (annual variation in %)9.010.08.36.36.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.43.03.63.22.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.43.53.83.32.8
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.504.754.256.005.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-12.115.320.0-2.51.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13,78813,47313,56814,38013,883
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)13,39213,30213,38314,23314,141
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-1.8-1.6-2.9-2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-17.5-17.0-16.2-30.6-30.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.79.511.8-8.7-3.2
Exports (USD billion)150145169180167
Imports (USD billion)143136157189171
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.6-3.416.36.6-7.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-19.9-4.915.720.2-9.5
International Reserves (USD)106116130121129
External Debt (% of GDP)36.134.334.736.036.1

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Indonesia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.10-0.05 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate13,8830.05 %Jan 01

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