Indonesia Economic Outlook
February 19, 2019
The economy posted a healthy expansion in the fourth quarter according to recent figures. Private consumption growth was brisk, likely supported by social assistance programs ahead of the April elections, modest price pressures and a robust labor market. Moreover, fixed investment and government expenditure grew notably, while the external sector’s drag on the economy lessened on softer import growth. This came after a similarly robust outturn in Q3 on dynamic domestic demand. Turning to 2019, the economy has had a soft start. The manufacturing sector began the year on weak footing, with the PMI broadly stagnating in January due to lower new orders. Moreover, on the external front, exports shrank in the same month due to declines in the energy and non-energy sectors; although imports also fell—partly due to a tough base effect—the trade balance worsened in annual terms as a result.Indonesia Economic Growth
Domestic demand should continue to support growth this year, with private consumption underpinned by a strong labor market and government consumption likely receiving a slight boost ahead of elections in April. However, potential delays to public infrastructure projects and cooling Chinese momentum could drag on the performance, while a possible resurgence of U.S.-China trade tensions poses a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 5.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% in 2020.Indonesia Economy Data
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Indonesia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.96 | -0.05 % | Mar 11 |
| Exchange Rate | 14,290 | 0.05 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 6,366 | -0.32 % | Mar 11 |
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Indonesia Economic News
Indonesia: Trade surplus recorded in February, but exports continue to decline sharply
March 15, 2019
According to Statistics Indonesia, the country recorded a trade surplus of USD 0.3 billion in February, confounding market expectations of a deficit.
Indonesia: Growth in retail sales stays elevated in January
March 11, 2019
In January, retail sales grew 7.2% over the same month in the prior year, down slightly from December’s 7.7% figure but beating the Bank’s initial estimate of 4.8%.
Indonesia: Manufacturing PMI ticks up marginally in February
March 1, 2019
Conditions in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector largely stagnated in February according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit and Nikkei, with the PMI increasing from 49.9 in January to 50.1 in February.
Indonesia: Inflation declines further in February
March 1, 2019
Consumer prices decreased 0.08% in February from the previous month, contrasting January’s 0.32% increase.
Indonesia: BI leaves rates unchanged in February on stronger rupiah
February 21, 2019
At its 20–21 February monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) left the seven-day reverse repo rate at 6.00% for the third consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.
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