Indonesia Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy contracted sharply in Q3 according to recent data, although at a softer rate than in Q2. Private consumption and fixed investment were both down notably amid lingering domestic social mobility restrictions. However, public spending surged as the government was finally able to expedite stimulus measures. Moreover, the external sector contributed markedly to GDP—albeit largely due to import compression, as exports continued to fall markedly. Turning to the fourth quarter, early signs are muted amid ongoing restrictions in Jakarta and stubbornly high infection rates. In October, the manufacturing PMI continued to signal deteriorating operating conditions, while consumer sentiment worsened, and retail sales contracted at a sharper rate according to preliminary estimates.
Indonesia Economic GrowthThe economy is set to rebound next year, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus and the likely lessening impact of Covid-19. Moreover, the passage of the omnibus bill could buoy investment to an extent. However, uncertainty over the evolution and duration of the pandemic and the timing of a vaccine clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.0% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2022, GDP is seen growing 5.1%.
Indonesia Economy Data
5 years of Indonesia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.10||-0.05 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||13,883||0.05 %||Jan 01|
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Indonesia Economic News
January 15, 2021
Merchandise exports soared 14.6% year-on-year in December, following November’s 9.5% increase and supported by higher non-energy exports.
January 12, 2021
Retail sales plunged 16.3% in November (October: -14.9% yoy).
January 4, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.45% over the previous month in December, accelerating from November's 0.28% increase.
January 4, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit rose from 50.6 in November to 51.3 in December.
December 17, 2020
At its 16–17 December monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to leave the seven-day reverse repo rate at an all-time low of 3.75%.