Indonesia Economic Outlook
November 16, 2021The economy grew at a notably softer pace in Q3, despite upbeat exports and higher commodity prices, as a surge in Covid-19 cases in July and August and subsequent harsh lockdowns weighed on the recovery. A marked deceleration in domestic demand growth was behind the reading, with private consumption, public spending and fixed investment all weakening. That said, conditions have improved so far in Q4 amid a relaxation of restrictions, as suggested by a jump in the manufacturing PMI in October. Moreover, authorities recently approved Novavax’s vaccine, which should further support vaccination efforts. Meanwhile, in early November the government placed a cap on prices for coal sold to local cement and fertilizer plants to protect them against surging global prices, although this could weigh on coal production, while it plans to reduce exports of raw materials to attract onshore investment.
Indonesia Economic GrowthGrowth is seen gaining considerable steam in 2022, following an uneven recovery this year. A notable strengthening of domestic demand amid reduced containment measures, unleashed pent-up spending and supportive fiscal and monetary policy stances should spearhead the upturn, while foreign demand will likely soften, albeit remain robust. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.3% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, GDP is also seen growing 5.3%.
Indonesia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||7.10||-0.05 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||13,883||0.05 %||Jan 01|
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Indonesia Economic News
December 2, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.37% in November over the previous month, accelerating from the 0.12% rise recorded in October.
December 1, 2021
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 53.9 in November, from October's 57.2, which had marked the best result in series history.
November 19, 2021
At its 18–19 November monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to leave the seven-day reverse repo rate at the all-time low of 3.50%, where it has been since February.
November 17, 2021
Merchandise exports soared 53.4% over the same month last year in October (September: +47.6% year-on-year).
November 10, 2021
Retail sales decreased 2.2% year-on-year in September (August: -2.1% yoy).