Indonesia Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018The economy should have performed fairly well in the fourth quarter, likely supported by solid fixed investment and government consumption, although high-frequency indicators paint a nuanced picture. On one hand, tourist arrivals grew at a double-digit pace in October. On the other, growth in retail sales and merchandise exports was soft in the same month, while the manufacturing PMI declined for the third straight month in November and now hovers only slightly above contractionary territory. This comes after economic growth was solid in Q3 thanks to domestic demand, despite edging down from Q2. In mid-November, the government announced plans to relax foreign-ownership rules in numerous economic sectors, which should support FDI inflows going forward. Also in November, Indonesia concluded a trade deal with the four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members, although the boost to the external sector will likely only be mild.
Indonesia Economic GrowthDomestic demand should continue to underpin the economy, with private consumption supported by a strong labor market and government consumption likely receiving a boost ahead of elections in April 2019. However, tighter monetary policy, delays to public infrastructure projects and cooling Chinese momentum could drag on the performance, while a possible resurgence of U.S.-China trade tensions poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 5.2% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% again in 2020.
Indonesia Economy Data
5 years of Indonesia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.98||-0.05 %||Jan 14|
|Exchange Rate||14,124||0.05 %||Jan 14|
|Stock Market||6,336||-0.32 %||Jan 14|
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Indonesia Economic News
January 15, 2019
According to Statistics Indonesia, the country recorded a trade deficit of USD 1.1 billion in December, marking the third consecutive month in which the deficit has been wider than market expectations.
January 10, 2019
In November, retail sales grew 3.4% over the same month last year, up from October’s 2.9% expansion and matching the Bank’s initial estimate.
January 2, 2019
Conditions in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector improved at a faster pace in December, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit and Nikkei, with the PMI increasing from 50.4 in November to 51.2 in December.
January 2, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.62% in December from the previous month, up from November’s 0.27% increase.
December 20, 2018
At its 19–20 December monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) left the seven-day reverse repo rate at 6.00%, following a surprise rate hike in the prior month.