Egypt PMI January 2019


Egypt: Business conditions in the non-oil private sector deteriorate again in January

February 5, 2019

The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.5 in January from 49.6 in December, representing the lowest reading since December 2017. The index therefore remained below the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the non-oil private sector for the fifth month running.

The PMI moderated in January on the back of the largest contracted in output since December 2017, which was itself linked to fewer new business orders. Faced with weaker demand, businesses still increased purchasing activity in January at the fastest pace in 12 months. Employment declined in January for the fourth consecutive month, while backlogs of work were unchanged compared to the previous month, bringing a six-month streak of rises to an end. On the price front, output prices fell for the first time in three years in January, and input inflation moderated to the lowest on record due to falling oil and raw material prices. Meanwhile, business sentiment regarding prospects was downbeat in January and fell to the lowest level since October 2016 on concerns over future export sales.

Our panelists expect total investment to grow 9.9% in fiscal year 2019, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 9.9% in FY 2020.

Author:, Economist

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Egypt PMI Chart

Egypt PMI January 2019 0

Note: Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an improvement in non-oil business conditions while readings below 50 indicate a deterioration.
Source: Emirates NBD and Markit.

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