Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Available indicators suggest that weak dynamics persisted at the outset of the year, after the economy likely contracted in Q4 2018. Although the economic activity index edged up in January, which mainly reflected the softer decline of activity in the all-important oil industry, it remains firmly entrenched in negative territory. In the same month, oil exports plunged on an annual basis, contributing to the first monthly trade deficit in a year. Furthermore, the non-oil economy lost momentum yet again, with annual growth in activity falling to a seven-month low in January. Meanwhile, after oil production dipped to its lowest level in over a decade in February, it inched back up in March; however, the quarterly average came notably below that of Q4, hinting that overall economic conditions remained frail in Q1.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy is expected to exit recession this year largely on the back of improving domestic demand. The economy’s high dependence on the oil industry, however, poses the main downside risk to the outlook as disruptions in production and/or softer crude prices would adversely impact fiscal and external accounts. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 0.6% in 2019, which down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

Angola Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.025.826.627.428.2
GDP per capita (USD)5,4615,6484,3343,722-  
GDP (USD bn)137146116101-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.04.80.9-2.6-2.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.312.73.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.63.5-1.9-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.3-6.6-3.3-4.5-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.940.764.679.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.216.111.813.04.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.514.341.926.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.87.310.332.431.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)97.60102.1135.3165.9165.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.259.0011.0016.0018.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.5298.41120.1163.5165.8
Current Account (% of GDP)6.0-2.6-8.9-3.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.1-3.7-10.3-3.1-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.930.612.514.520.4
Exports (USD billion)68.259.233.227.634.4
Imports (USD billion)26.328.620.713.014.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.0-13.3-43.9-16.924.7
Imports (annual variation in %)11.18.5-27.6-37.07.1
International Reserves (USD)32.227.724.424.418.0
External Debt (% of GDP)20.624.731.542.6-  

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate324.50.0 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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