Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economic downturn worsened markedly in Q2 at the hands of the pandemic, which battered domestic and foreign demand. Moreover, the all-important oil sector contracted for the 17th consecutive quarter. Turning to Q3, data continued to paint a bleak picture. The unemployment rate rose further, which, coupled with spiraling inflation, will have weighed on private consumption. Price pressures have been building up, partly due to ongoing currency depreciation, which in turn will have also weighed on business activity. Moreover, the weakened currency, coupled with lower oil output and still-subdued prices, continues to heighten the risk of debt default. In other news, social unrest continued into mid-November, with anti-government protesters taking to the streets on the country’s Independence Day. This, together with a global rise in new Covid-19 cases, is set to hamper activity in Q4.

Angola Economic Growth

Next year, the economy is forecast to partly recover from this year’s Covid-19-induced slump as both external and domestic demand strengthen. The recovery is expected to be mild as still-elevated unemployment, ongoing currency weakness, social unrest, a notable fiscal shortfall and ballooning public debt all hang over the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 2.4%.

Angola Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)26.727.528.429.330.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,3543,6554,3043,6522,809
GDP (USD bn)11610112210784.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.6-0.1-2.0-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-19.53.0-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-4.5-6.32.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.175.769.389.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.814.44.120.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)14.341.926.318.217.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.332.431.720.317.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)135.2165.8165.8307.7479.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0016.0018.0016.5015.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)120.1163.5165.8252.9363.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-3.1-0.56.96.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.3-3.1-0.67.45.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.514.520.225.020.6
Exports (USD billion)33.227.634.640.834.7
Imports (USD billion)20.713.014.515.814.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.9-16.925.617.8-14.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.6-37.010.99.2-10.6
International Reserves (USD)23.823.717.515.416.3
External Debt (% of GDP)45.360.049.057.477.8

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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