Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

January 25, 2022

The economy bounced back to growth in the third quarter of last year, thanks to firming non-oil sector activity. Manufacturing and trade output picked up pace in annual terms in the quarter, while production in the construction sector swung from a contraction to an expansion in the period. On the other hand, the key oil sector remained downbeat, recording the 23rd consecutive quarter of declining annual output. Moving forward, conditions likely remained fairly stable in Q4: Oil production was stable on average in the quarter compared to the previous period, while oil prices trended higher. However, contractions in the money supply in October and November suggest cooling activity, while rising inflationary pressures likely weighed on household spending. Meanwhile, surging Covid-19 cases in January bode ill for the economy at the outset of the new year.

Angola Economic Growth

Angola is forecast to emerge from a six-year recession in 2022 amid a rebounding oil sector. Moreover, activity in the non-oil sector should be buoyed by progress on the vaccination front, moderating price pressures and the halving of the VAT. Social unrest and weakened public finances cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.5% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is seen growing 2.9%.

Angola Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)26.727.528.429.330.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,3543,6554,3043,6522,809
GDP (USD bn)11610112210784.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.6-0.1-2.0-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-19.53.0-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-4.5-6.32.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.175.769.389.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.814.44.120.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)14.341.926.318.217.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.332.431.720.317.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0016.0018.0016.5015.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)135.2165.8165.8307.7479.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)120.1163.5165.8252.9363.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-3.1-0.56.96.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.3-3.1-0.67.45.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.514.520.225.020.6
Exports (USD billion)33.227.634.640.834.7
Imports (USD billion)20.713.014.515.814.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.9-16.925.617.8-14.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.6-37.010.99.2-10.6
International Reserves (USD)23.823.717.515.416.3
External Debt (% of GDP)45.360.049.057.477.8

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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