Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

February 20, 2018

The economy remains fragile despite recovering oil prices, which reached an over-three year high in January. Industrial production in the third quarter of 2017 contracted 2.3% in year-on-year terms, and exports of goods and services also dropped compared to the previous year, indicating depressed oil earnings in the period when the current upswing in global oil prices started. Furthermore, the devaluation of the kwanza on 9 January is putting severe pressure on the government’s public accounts. Moody’s placed Angola’s B2 credit rating under review on 9 February due to growing concerns over the country’s mounting debt level. Public debt is expected to have increased, along with borrowing requirements to meet the government’s high debt obligations. A rating decision by Moody’s will largely depend on the government’s ability to successfully restructure part of its debt with international partners to put it on a more sustainable footing.

Angola Economic Growth

Fiscal austerity measures and structural imbalances in the economy will keep growth constrained this year. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 1.6% in 2018, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 2.7%.

Angola Economy Data

Population (million)24.325.025.826.627.4
GDP per capita (USD)5,2745,4605,6444,3333,504
GDP (USD bn)12813714611595.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.88.312.73.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)6.7-3.8-4.9-3.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.532.940.765.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)6.517.216.111.813.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)95.8297.61102.9135.3165.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)95.3596.5298.41120.1163.5
Current Account (% of GDP)10.86.0-2.6-8.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)13.88.1-3.7-10.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)29.027.828.920.712.5
Exports (annual variation in %)38.7-4.3-13.4-43.9-17.7
Imports (annual variation in %)2.7-4.03.9-27.6-39.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)16.518.319.924.3-  

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Angola Facts

Exchange Rate214.50.0 %Mar 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Mar 15

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