Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

Storm clouds have been gathering on the horizon in recent weeks in part due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Saudi Arabia and Russia continued their oil price war in early April, which flooded the market amid weakened global demand and dragged heavily on prices. Consequently, in April, Cabinda crude oil prices fell to an over two-decade low, while oil production fell to a five-month low. This should have weighed on exports at the start of the second quarter, and also increases the risk of default given the country's large public debt and high reliance on oil revenues. Moreover, private consumption and business outlays are expected to have suffered amid continued kwanza depreciation—the currency was down 17.3% year-to-date on 22 May—stoking price pressures, and the government's extension of the state of emergency until 25 May. However, some lockdown restrictions have now been eased, which should prop up activity somewhat.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy will contract sharply this year as domestic activity is depressed by containment measures, a weakening kwanza and rising price pressures, while the external sector will be hit by lower oil prices and output. Exacerbating matters is the looming risk of default amid an increasing pile of debt, which threatens macroeconomic stability. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP shrinking 3.1% this year, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen expanding 1.0%.

Angola Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)25.926.727.528.429.3
GDP per capita (USD)5,6244,3543,6554,3043,652
GDP (USD bn)146116101122107
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.80.9-2.6-0.1-1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.5-1.9-19.53.09.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.7-2.9-4.5-6.32.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.857.175.769.389.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.111.814.44.120.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.514.341.926.318.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.310.332.431.720.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.0011.0016.0018.0016.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)102.9135.2165.8165.8307.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)98.41120.1163.5165.8252.9
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.6-8.8-3.1-0.56.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.7-10.3-3.1-0.67.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)30.612.514.520.225.0
Exports (USD billion)59.233.227.634.640.8
Imports (USD billion)28.620.713.014.515.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.3-43.9-16.925.617.8
Imports (annual variation in %)8.5-27.6-37.010.99.2
International Reserves (USD)27.023.823.717.515.4
External Debt (% of GDP)24.731.244.235.544.0

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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