Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

September 21, 2021

Economic conditions likely remained challenging in the second quarter. On one hand, oil prices soared as softer lockdown measures abroad boosted demand for the black gold. However, oil output tumbled in June, reaching a near 17-year low, owing to prior OPEC+ production curbs. Meanwhile, spiraling inflation and lingering restrictions will have constrained household spending in Q2. Turning to Q3, similar dynamics have been at play in the oil sector: Oil prices averaged higher in July–August than in Q2, but output eased on average. More positively, on 1 September the government lifted the Luanda-province lockdown for the first time since March 2020, which should boost economic activity at the tail of the quarter and into Q4. Furthermore, authorities recently expressed their intention to continue with the IPO of 30% of the state oil company, which could net them EUR 5–7 billion in proceeds.

Angola Economic Growth

Economic growth is forecast to return this year, ending a multi-year recession, before accelerating next year. The rollback of domestic and foreign lockdown measures will see demand dynamics firm, while the new oil sector bill should boost investment growth. However, social unrest, high inflation and a sizable public debt burden cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 0.8% in 2021. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 2.9%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Angola Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)26.727.528.429.330.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,3543,6554,3043,6522,809
GDP (USD bn)11610112210784.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.6-0.1-2.0-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-19.53.0-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-4.5-6.32.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.175.769.389.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.814.44.120.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)14.341.926.318.217.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.332.431.720.317.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0016.0018.0016.5015.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)135.2165.8165.8307.7479.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)120.1163.5165.8252.9363.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-3.1-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.3-3.1-
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.514.520.225.020.6
Exports (USD billion)33.227.634.640.834.7
Imports (USD billion)20.713.014.515.814.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.9-16.925.617.8-14.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.6-
International Reserves (USD)23.823.717.515.416.3
External Debt (% of GDP)45.360.049.057.477.8

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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