Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

December 13, 2019

The economy appears to have shrunk again in the third quarter. Oil production continued plummeting in Q3, which, coupled with falling average crude oil prices, boded ill for the country’s external sector. Meanwhile, available data leaves little room for optimism in Q4: Crude prices inched down in October–November compared to Q3, while domestic production remained depressed in the same period. That said, the authorities continue to show commitment to structural economic reforms. After floating the kwanza in October, the Central Bank relaxed restrictions on foreign exchange trading for companies and commercial banks. Consequently, on 6 December, the IMF approved a second tranche of the USD 247 million loan, praising efforts to diversify the economy and improve public finances. In other news, Parliament approved the state budget for 2020, which projects a 1.2% fiscal surplus.

Angola Economic Growth

The growth outlook for next year was chopped again this month, as the all-important oil sector remains in the doldrums with little hope of a rebound. That said, economic activity should recover in 2020 as ongoing economic reforms, sustained political stability and continued IMF assistance are set to support consumer demand and investment activity. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 0.7% next year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 1.9%.

Angola Economy Data

Population (million)25.125.926.727.528.4
GDP per capita (USD)5,4375,6244,3543,6774,304
GDP (USD bn)137146116101122
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.63.5-1.9-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-5.7-2.9-4.5-6.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.139.857.175.768.5
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.514.341.926.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.87.310.332.431.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)97.61102.9135.2165.8165.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.259.0011.0016.0018.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.5298.41120.1163.5165.8
Current Account (% of GDP)6.0-2.6-8.8-3.1-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.1-3.7-10.3-3.1-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.930.612.514.520.2
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)26.328.620.713.014.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.0-13.3-43.9-16.925.6
Imports (annual variation in %)11.18.5-27.6-37.010.9
International Reserves (USD)31.527.023.823.717.5
External Debt (% of GDP)20.624.731.243.935.5

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Angola Facts

Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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