Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

A strong economic recovery has yet to materialize this year, as the economic climate indicator remained firmly entrenched in negative territory in Q1. On a more positive note, President João Lourenço’s government has pursued its Macroeconomic Stabilization Program focused on improving the country’s economic prospects through fiscal deficit reduction and public debt consolidation, as well as the transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime. The private sector is likely to benefit significantly from the structural reforms amid government’s focus on increasing competition in domestic markets. The program has been positively received by the IMF, which commended economic policies and anti-corruption efforts pursued by the government during its first eight months in power.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy is forecast to emerge from recession in 2018, on the back of higher global oil prices, which bode well for Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil exporter. Meanwhile, fiscal consolidation measures, moderating public debt and the transition away from a pegged exchange rate should further buttress economic activity in the medium to long-term. The diversification of exports and imports substitution should also boost growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2019.

Angola Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.025.826.627.428.2
GDP per capita (USD)5,4615,6484,3343,722-  
GDP (USD bn)137146116101-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.04.80.9-2.6-2.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.312.73.0-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.63.5-1.9-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.3-6.6-3.3-4.5-5.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.940.764.679.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.216.111.813.04.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.514.341.926.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.87.310.332.431.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.259.0011.0016.0018.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)97.60102.1135.3165.9165.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.5298.41120.1163.5165.8
Current Account (% of GDP)6.0-2.6-8.9-3.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.1-3.7-10.3-3.1-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.930.612.514.520.4
Exports (USD billion)68.259.233.227.634.4
Imports (USD billion)26.328.620.713.014.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.0-13.3-43.9-16.924.7
Imports (annual variation in %)11.18.5-27.6-37.07.1
International Reserves (USD)32.227.724.424.418.0
External Debt (% of GDP)20.624.731.542.6-  

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate269.20.0 %Aug 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Aug 15

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