Angola Economic Outlook
September 17, 2019Available data suggests that weak momentum persisted in Q2, after GDP fell in Q1 amid a contracting oil sector, which has done so for three consecutive years. Oil output in Q2 was lower year-on-year, which, alongside falling global crude prices throughout the quarter, point to a still-ailing oil sector, likely weighing on overall activity. Moving to Q3, crude production fell to its lowest level in over 13 years in July, and despite bouncing back in August, it remained subdued. Coupled with volatile international crude prices this paints a discouraging picture for Q3. In other news, in a bid to improve the business environment and diversify the economy away from oil, the government announced a major privatization drive last month in which 195 state-owned companies would be sold in 2019–2022. Five industrial units were already reportedly sold earlier this month, with the government taking in around USD 16 million in revenue.
Angola Economic GrowthThis year, the economy is projected to contract for the fourth successive year. Oil production is expected to continue to decline and a challenging external backdrop is seen weighing on global crude prices, both dragging on the all-important industry. Next year, however, activity is projected to rebound, aided by ongoing economic reforms and support from the IMF. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.4% this year. In 2020, the economy is expected to grow 1.3%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Angola Economy Data
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Angola Economic News
September 18, 2019
The economic climate indicator (ICE, Indicador de Clima Económico) published by the Statistical Institute improved from minus 9 points in the first quarter to minus 5 points in the second quarter.
September 13, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude fell from USD 64.9 per barrel (pb) in July to USD 60.7 pb in August, the lowest since January.
Angola: Cabinda crude oil price inched down in July; Angolan production slumps to an over 12-year low
August 16, 2019
The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude fell from USD 65.5 per barrel (pb) in June to USD 64.9 pb in July.
August 13, 2019
Consumer prices in the province of Luanda rose 1.5% in July from the previous month, accelerating from June’s 1.1% increase and marking the highest print so far this year.
July 26, 2019
At its 26 July meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the National Bank of Angola (BNA) decided to keep the key policy rate at an over three-year low of 15.50%.