Angola Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economic downturn worsened markedly in Q2 at the hands of the pandemic, which battered domestic and foreign demand. Moreover, the all-important oil sector contracted for the 17th consecutive quarter. Turning to Q3, data continued to paint a bleak picture. The unemployment rate rose further, which, coupled with spiraling inflation, will have weighed on private consumption. Price pressures have been building up, partly due to ongoing currency depreciation, which in turn will have also weighed on business activity. Moreover, the weakened currency, coupled with lower oil output and still-subdued prices, continues to heighten the risk of debt default. In other news, social unrest continued into mid-November, with anti-government protesters taking to the streets on the country’s Independence Day. This, together with a global rise in new Covid-19 cases, is set to hamper activity in Q4.
Angola Economic GrowthNext year, the economy is forecast to partly recover from this year’s Covid-19-induced slump as both external and domestic demand strengthen. The recovery is expected to be mild as still-elevated unemployment, ongoing currency weakness, social unrest, a notable fiscal shortfall and ballooning public debt all hang over the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.3% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 2.4%.
Angola Economy Data
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Angola Economic News
February 19, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.94% from the previous month in January, marking the softest monthly rise since September last year and coming in above December’s 2.19% increase.
February 16, 2021
Angola’s Cabinda oil sold at USD 55.4 per barrel (pb) on average in January, which was up from December’s USD 51.1 pb.
January 29, 2021
At its 28–29 January meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Angola (BNA) maintained its basic reference rate at 15.50%, where it has been since 24 May 2019.
January 21, 2021
GDP contracted at a slower rate of 5.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, above the 8.3% contraction logged in the second quarter. Sector-level data revealed that the improvement came on the back of a softer drop in the key oil sector, which accounts for roughly one third of GDP, as output fell 5.1% year-on-year (Q2: -8.2% yoy).
January 14, 2021
Consumer prices increased 2.19% from the previous month in December, largely in line with the 2.14% rise seen in November.