Angola Economic Outlook
September 21, 2021Economic conditions likely remained challenging in the second quarter. On one hand, oil prices soared as softer lockdown measures abroad boosted demand for the black gold. However, oil output tumbled in June, reaching a near 17-year low, owing to prior OPEC+ production curbs. Meanwhile, spiraling inflation and lingering restrictions will have constrained household spending in Q2. Turning to Q3, similar dynamics have been at play in the oil sector: Oil prices averaged higher in July–August than in Q2, but output eased on average. More positively, on 1 September the government lifted the Luanda-province lockdown for the first time since March 2020, which should boost economic activity at the tail of the quarter and into Q4. Furthermore, authorities recently expressed their intention to continue with the IPO of 30% of the state oil company, which could net them EUR 5–7 billion in proceeds.
Angola Economic GrowthEconomic growth is forecast to return this year, ending a multi-year recession, before accelerating next year. The rollback of domestic and foreign lockdown measures will see demand dynamics firm, while the new oil sector bill should boost investment growth. However, social unrest, high inflation and a sizable public debt burden cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 0.8% in 2021. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 2.9%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
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Angola Economic News
October 13, 2021
Cabinda oil prices came in at USD 74.5 per barrel (pb) on average in September, up from USD 70.9 pb in August.
October 12, 2021
Luanda-province consumer prices rose 2.34% in September over the previous month, largely in line with the 2.30% rise logged in August.
October 11, 2021
The economy returned to growth in the second quarter for the first time since Q2 2019, with GDP expanding 1.2% year-on-year and swinging from the first quarter’s 3.4% contraction.
October 11, 2021
Economic sentiment continued its upward trend in the second quarter; however, confidence remained encapsulated by pessimism as the sentiment index rose to minus 6 from minus 9 in the first quarter.
September 30, 2021
At its 30 September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Angola decided to leave all its monetary policy instruments untouched.