Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

Incoming President João Lourenço, whose People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party secured a landslide victory in August’s elections, inherits an economy that still looks shaky. Recently released data shows that economic sentiment remained gloomy in Q2, with firms reporting financial difficulties and insufficient demand. On a more positive note, oil prices have picked up notably in recent weeks following news of a possible OPEC deal extension and a fall in oil output among OPEC producers in August. If momentum is maintained, it could help bolster the country’s weak fiscal position and help contain the sizeable budget deficit. The election of Lourenço is highly unlikely to substantially alter economic policy-making, as former president José Eduardo dos Santos will still wield influence as leader of the MPLA party. In addition, other members of the dos Santos family continue to occupy key posts: The ex-president’s daughter is head of state oil company Sonangol, while his son is in charge of the sovereign wealth fund.

Angola Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)24.325.025.826.627.4
GDP per capita (USD)5,2745,4605,6444,3333,504
GDP (USD bn)12813714611595.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.55.04.03.01.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.88.312.73.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.21.63.5-1.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)6.7-3.8-4.9-3.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.532.940.765.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)6.517.216.111.813.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.07.77.514.341.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.38.87.310.332.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.259.259.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)95.8297.61102.9135.3165.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)95.3596.5298.41120.1163.5
Current Account (% of GDP)10.86.0-2.6-8.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)13.88.1-3.7-10.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)42.040.230.012.514.8
Exports (USD billion)71.168.058.933.227.3
Imports (USD billion)29.027.828.920.712.5
Exports (annual variation in %)38.7-4.3-13.4-43.9-17.7
Imports (annual variation in %)2.7-4.03.9-27.6-39.6
International Reserves (USD)32.232.227.724.424.4
External Debt (% of GDP)16.518.319.924.3-  

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate165.80.0 %Oct 16
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 16

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Angola Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

Growth should speed up next year, due to greater oil production and higher oil prices. However, an uncertain business environment, sustained high inflation and foreign exchange restrictions are likely to limit the expansion. Analysts expect GDP to expand 1.4% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

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