Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

August 25, 2020

The economic recession is expected to have intensified in the second quarter at the hands of Covid-19 and associated containment measures. Domestic restrictions weighed on activity at home and the unemployment rate ticked up further from the previous quarter, suggesting household consumption took a hit. Moreover, the pandemic subdued oil prices in Q2 as demand for the commodity was hammered, compounding tightened supply amid the OPEC+ production cut deal. Consequently, government finances suffered, with the risk of default continuing to loom and reduced space for further stimulus to spur activity. Turning to the third quarter, early prospects are somewhat downbeat, with Cabinda oil output falling to an over-15-year low in July amid the OPEC+ deal and prices remaining depressed. Moreover, stricter containment measures in two provinces are to remain in place until early September, weighing on activity.

Angola Economic Growth

The recession is forecast to deepen this year due to the global pandemic. Domestic containment measures will further depress household consumption and capital expenditure, while foreign lockdowns will hit the external sector through subdued oil demand, driving down prices. The risk of default threatening macroeconomic stability further clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP shrinking 4.3% this year, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen expanding 0.5%.

Angola Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)26.727.528.429.330.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,3543,6554,3043,6522,809
GDP (USD bn)11610112210784.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.6-0.1-2.0-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-19.53.0-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-4.5-6.32.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.175.769.389.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.814.44.120.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)14.341.926.318.217.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.332.431.720.317.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)135.2165.8165.8307.7479.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0016.0018.0016.5015.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)120.1163.5165.8252.9363.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-3.1-0.56.96.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.3-3.1-0.67.45.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.514.520.225.020.6
Exports (USD billion)33.227.634.640.834.7
Imports (USD billion)20.713.014.515.814.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.9-16.925.617.8-14.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.6-37.010.99.2-10.6
International Reserves (USD)23.823.717.515.416.3
External Debt (% of GDP)45.360.049.057.477.8

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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