Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

September 17, 2019

Available data suggests that weak momentum persisted in Q2, after GDP fell in Q1 amid a contracting oil sector, which has done so for three consecutive years. Oil output in Q2 was lower year-on-year, which, alongside falling global crude prices throughout the quarter, point to a still-ailing oil sector, likely weighing on overall activity. Moving to Q3, crude production fell to its lowest level in over 13 years in July, and despite bouncing back in August, it remained subdued. Coupled with volatile international crude prices this paints a discouraging picture for Q3. In other news, in a bid to improve the business environment and diversify the economy away from oil, the government announced a major privatization drive last month in which 195 state-owned companies would be sold in 2019–2022. Five industrial units were already reportedly sold earlier this month, with the government taking in around USD 16 million in revenue.

Angola Economic Growth

This year, the economy is projected to contract for the fourth successive year. Oil production is expected to continue to decline and a challenging external backdrop is seen weighing on global crude prices, both dragging on the all-important industry. Next year, however, activity is projected to rebound, aided by ongoing economic reforms and support from the IMF. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.4% this year. In 2020, the economy is expected to grow 1.3%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Angola Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.125.926.727.528.4
GDP per capita (USD)5,4375,6244,3543,6774,304
GDP (USD bn)137146116101122
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.04.80.9-2.6-0.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.63.5-1.9-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-5.7-2.9-4.5-6.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.139.857.175.768.5
Money (annual variation in %)17.216.111.814.44.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.514.341.926.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.87.310.332.431.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)97.61102.9135.2165.8165.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.259.0011.0016.0018.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)96.5298.41120.1163.5165.8
Current Account (% of GDP)6.0-2.6-8.8-3.1-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.1-3.7-10.3-3.1-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.930.612.514.520.2
Exports (USD billion)68.259.233.227.634.6
Imports (USD billion)26.328.620.713.014.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.0-13.3-43.9-16.925.6
Imports (annual variation in %)11.18.5-27.6-37.010.9
International Reserves (USD)31.527.023.823.717.5
External Debt (% of GDP)20.624.731.243.935.5

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Angola Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate362.70.0 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 04

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