Base Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Base Metals Price Outlook

Base metal prices hit five-month high in October

Prices for base metals increased 3.6% over the previous month in October, accelerating from September’s 1.1% rise and logging the best result since May.

Base metal prices rose at a quicker pace at the outset of Q4, with prices for 8 out of the 12 commodities tracked by our panelists posting increases compared to the previous month, largely on favorable fundamentals. Supply tightness, coupled with low inventories stemming from high withdrawing activity from commodity traders, sent copper prices soaring to a multi-year high in October, while strong demand- and supply-side fundamentals pushed prices for tin to a fresh record high in the same month. On the other hand, prices for iron ore slid for the third consecutive month, chiefly due to tighter output curbs in the Chinese steel-making hub of Tangshan amid high inventory levels of iron ore. This, coupled with China’s decision to set a target price for coal, weighed further on prices for the steel-making commodity.

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Base Metals Historical Price Data

2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  
Aluminium1663.69  1604.6  1968.4  2107.64  1794.37  
Alumina377.2  310.14  348.34292307692  472.02134615385  333.93521072797  
Copper5508.57  4871.3  6171.78  6527.31  6008.57  
Nickel11835.3  9596.5  10414.13  13110.42  13917.88  
Lead1787.3  1866.99  2313.17  2239.45  1996.65  
Zinc1929.03  2092.83  2890.89  2920.33  2548.76  
Tin16053.44  17960.96  20068.1  20134.02  18633.23  
Iron Ore55.82  58.61  71.77  69.67  93.88  
Steel (USA)461.14  519.95  619.92  828.46  603.52  
Steel (Europe)422.10344827586  455.12260536398  601.75  649.11877394636  530.27969348659  
Molybdenum17019.775568244  14131.704843581  17659.119469124  26381.87  25693.62  
Cobalt28440.24  25490.73  55850.9  72920.08  33296.91  

Note:
Aluminium prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alumina prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Copper prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Nickel prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Lead prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Zinc prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Tin prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Iron ore prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (USA) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (Europe) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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