Base Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Base Metals Price Outlook

China continues to lead increases Q4 2018 forecast

Strong global demand, particularly in China, is supporting prices for base metals. Moreover, prices are benefiting from stricter environmental regulations in China and other countries such as the Philippines, which could cool output of key commodities. Our Consensus Forecast for base metals rose for the third consecutive period this month. The FocusEconomics base metals price index is seen averaging 67.3 in Q4 2018, which represents a 2.0% increase over last month’s forecast. Nevertheless, it would be slightly below the 68.5 projected for Q4 2017.

This month, the price forecasts for Q4 2018 were raised for nine metals, including aluminium, copper, lead and iron ore. Aluminium, lead, tin and zinc all saw sizeable upgrades. On the other hand, price forecasts were stable for aluminium alloy and steel (EUR). 

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Base Metals Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Aluminium2020.88  1845.86  1867.48  1663.69  1604.6  
Aluminium Alloy1935.97  1797.84  1950.43  1720.53  1553.26  
Alumina433.69  426.39  421.3  387.42  320.71  
Copper7954.23  7330.44  6863.26  5508.57  4871.3  
Nickel17522.38  15022.53  16897.92  11834.73  9596.5  
Lead2062.45  2139.23  2095  1787.3  1866.99  
Zinc1948.16  1910.09  2162.01  1929.03  2092.83  
Tin21099.76  22272.66  21878.75  16053.44  17960.96  
Iron Ore131.83  136.58  97.34  55.82  58.61  
Steel (USA)656.57  630.49  657.79  462.25  517.96  
Steel (Europe)659.47  614.28  568.37  420.18  439.66  

Note:
Aluminium prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Aluminium Alloy prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alumina prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Copper prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Nickel prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Lead prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Zinc prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Tin prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Iron ore prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (USA) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (Europe) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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