Base Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Base Metals Price Outlook

Base metal prices slide further in July

Base metal prices fell 12.8% month on month in July, on the heels of June’s 6.8% contraction. July’s result marked the largest drop in prices since the height of the Global Financial Crisis in December 2008.

Prices for 11 out of 12 metals tracked by our panel of analysts saw a drop in prices—prices for molybdenum were stable in July—with most metals witnessing a double-digit drop. A bleak demand outlook was at the epicenter of the selloff. Looking into top consumer China, the economy contracted sharply on a quarterly basis in Q2, hinting at weak demand conditions for all industrial metals. Lingering Covid-19  restrictions and the property market slowdown underpinned the downturn in the industrial sector, thus driving a fall in base metal prices. On a global scale, the picture was similar: Slowing GDP growth, a worsening cost-of-living crisis and a tighter monetary policy environment all boded poorly for the consumption of base metals, which, in turn, hammered prices.

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Base Metals Historical Price Data

2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  
Aluminium1663.69  1604.6  1968.4  2107.64  1794.37  
Alumina377.2  310.14  348.34292307692  472.02134615385  333.93521072797  
Copper5508.57  4871.3  6171.78  6527.31  6008.57  
Nickel11835.3  9596.5  10414.13  13110.42  13917.88  
Lead1787.3  1866.99  2313.17  2239.45  1996.65  
Zinc1929.03  2092.83  2890.89  2920.33  2548.76  
Tin16053.44  17960.96  20068.1  20134.02  18633.23  
Iron Ore55.82  58.61  71.77  69.67  93.88  
Steel (USA)461.14  519.95  619.92  828.46  603.52  
Steel (Europe)422.10344827586  455.12260536398  601.75  649.11877394636  530.27969348659  
Molybdenum17019.775568244  14131.704843581  17659.119469124  26381.87  25693.62  
Cobalt28440.24  25490.73  55850.9  72920.08  33296.91  

Note:
Aluminium prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alumina prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Copper prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Nickel prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Lead prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Zinc prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Tin prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Iron ore prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (USA) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (Europe) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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