Base Metals Price Outlook
Base metal prices flat in December following two months of decline
Base metal prices were flat on a monthly basis in December, contrasting a 0.7% decrease in November and marking an end to two consecutive months of sliding prices.
Growing optimism over the demand outlook for base metals following the 13 December announcement of the impending signing of Sino-U.S. “phase one” trade deal was the key factor supporting base metal prices after two months of decline. Higher prices for copper, tin and European steel offset lower prices for zinc and lead, which crumbled under frail demand. Notably, nickel prices fell for the third consecutive month in December amid an upturn in supply and weak demand. Somewhat positive momentum is set to be sustained early in 2020 thanks to an influx of healthy year-end economic data from China and the U.S. and the ratification of the trade accord on 15 January.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see base metal prices increasing 2.9% annually in Q4 2020 (previous edition: +2.9% yoy). A thawing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., an expected pick up in global growth in the second half of 2020 and sustained supply fears should underpin stronger demand for base metals. Uncertainty over growth dynamics in China, the world’s top metal consumer, as well as the unpredictable U.S. trade policy remains the major downside risks, however. In 2021, our panelists expect prices rise 2.2% in Q4 2021 in annual terms.
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Base Metals Historical Price Data
Note:
Aluminium prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alumina prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Copper prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Nickel prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Lead prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Zinc prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Tin prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Iron ore prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (USA) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (Europe) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).
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