ASEAN Economic Outlook
Higher global trade protectionism is set to cool ASEAN’s economic growth in 2025 from 2024; many regional economies still rely on exports to drive growth. That said, looser financing conditions should bolster domestic demand. Higher U.S. tariffs on ASEAN are a downside risk, while looser-than-expected fiscal policy is an upside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
Regional inflation picked up in April from March, as an eight-month high in Indonesian cost pressures outweighed a decline in Thai consumer prices. ASEAN’s inflation should ease from 2024 levels and remain below the world’s average in 2025, dragged down by relatively stable regional currencies and lower commodity prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,774 | 2,044 | 1,893 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,594 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.8 | -2.8 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.56 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.6 | 84.4 | 86.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.2 | 60.7 | 63.3 | 64.8 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | - |