ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN’s GDP growth should ease from 2024 in 2025 due to spillovers from U.S. protectionism—many regional economies still rely on exports to drive growth. Additionally, private spending and fixed investment should decelerate this year regionally. Higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs and remittance taxes are a downside risk, while hefty public stimulus is an upside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
After regional inflation picked up in April from March, it likely moderated in May. In 2025 as a whole, price pressures in the ASEAN region should ease from 2024 levels on aggregate, remaining anchored below the global average on relatively stable regional currencies. Strong public stimulus could reignite price growth.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,594 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.6 | 84.4 | 86.3 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 60.6 | 63.2 | 64.8 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | - |