ASEAN Economic Outlook
GDP growth will hover near the 10-year average in 2025 and 2026 as interest rate cuts aid domestic demand. Still, GDP growth in both years will be below the 2024 outturn as export growth takes a hit from U.S. tariffs and a more sluggish Chinese economy. The re-routing of goods from China via ASEAN as firms look to dodge U.S. tariffs should palliate the tariff impact.
ASEAN Inflation
So far this year, ASEAN’s inflation has been soft compared to global standards, partly due to a rising influx of low-cost Chinese goods. Price pressures should rise slightly in the coming quarters on central bank interest rate cuts. However, inflation should remain in line with the past decade’s average, kept in check by low oil and agricultural prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2025 to 2017.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 60.7 | 63.2 | 64.8 | 66.1 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,595 | 5,782 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,780 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,009 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.6 | 84.4 | 86.3 | 88.0 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 218 | 223 | 260 | 259 | 229 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.8 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 |