ASEAN Economic Outlook
Our panelists see ASEAN GDP growth near 2024’s level in 2025. Stronger rises in fixed investment and exports, fueled by the global electronics sector upcycle and export frontloading, should offset softer growth in household spending, stifled by tight monetary conditions. Earlier-than-expected U.S. tariffs on ASEAN countries plus China are a key downside risk.
ASEAN Inflation
After rising in December, ASEAN inflation likely picked up further in January; price pressures grew in Thailand and Vietnam, and remained elevated in Malaysia and the Philippines. ASEAN inflation will remain near 2024’s level in 2025, as lower commodity prices keep a lid on prices. Weaker regional currencies are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2023 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,684 | 5,100 | 5,468 | 5,598 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.56 | 4.95 | 4.86 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.7 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | - | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | - | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.4 | 89.9 | 83.5 | 83.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.2 | 60.7 | 63.3 | 64.8 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | - |