ASEAN Economic Outlook
ASEAN’s GDP growth should hover near the 10-year average in 2025 on strong public spending, looser monetary policy and export frontloading plus re-routing from China via ASEAN as firms look to dodge U.S. tariffs. Still, higher U.S. levies from August will hit momentum in H2. Prolonged political instability and extreme weather events pose downside risks.
ASEAN Inflation
Regional inflation has been weak by global standards so far this year, but has trumped the Asia average which is weighed down by absent price pressures in China. Inflation should pick up later in 2025 but remain mild by global standards, kept in check by strong inflows of cheap Chinese imports. Unexpected depreciation of ASEAN currencies is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2020 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,077 | 1,167 | 952 | 1,047 | 1,102 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.66 | 2.59 | 4.50 | 4.91 | 4.76 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 218 | 223 | 260 | 259 | 229 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.2 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,214 | 1,551 | 1,784 | 1,632 | 1,780 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,431 | 1,775 | 2,044 | 1,891 | 2,009 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,680 | 5,096 | 5,464 | 5,595 | 5,782 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.8 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 91.5 | 90.6 | 84.4 | 86.3 | 88.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 60.6 | 63.2 | 64.8 | 66.3 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |