GDP in Slovenia

Slovenia - GDP

Activity loses notable steam in Q3

GDP growth slowed markedly to 5.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, from 16.3% in the second quarter.

The downturn was broad-based, with private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports all weakening. Private consumption increased 9.3% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter's 18.4% expansion, likely affected by rising Covid-19 cases towards the end of the period. Public spending growth waned to 1.6% in Q3 (Q2: +3.3% yoy), while fixed investment growth moderated to 9.6% from 20.4% in the prior quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 10.6% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which was significantly below the second quarter's 30.5% expansion, amid ongoing semiconductor shortages. In addition, growth in imports of goods and services moderated to 19.9% in Q3 (Q2: +36.1% yoy). In total, the external sector subtracted 5 percentage points from the final growth figure.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth moderated to 1.3% in Q3, down from the previous quarter's 2.0% expansion. Q3's reading was the worst since Q4 2020.

Analysts at Erste Bank commented on the outlook:

“We see the pace of economic recovery remaining moderate also in the last quarter of the year, where still present supply-side bottlenecks, inflationary pressures and the worsening epidemic situation pose the most pronounced risks to the growth outlook. Domestic demand is expected to remain the main growth engine, as private consumption should continue to increase on the back of the stabilizing labor market and improving sentiment, with investment activity remaining vivid and further supported by the EU funds. While continued exports growth should tone down to some extent the pressures coming from rising imports, overall the net exports contribution is expected to remain in the negative area.”

FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 4.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is seen growing 3.3%.