Investment in Poland
Poland - Investment
GDP slides at steeper pace in Q4
According to a preliminary reading, the economy shrank at a steeper rate in the final quarter of 2020, with GDP decreasing 2.8% year-on-year, below the 1.5% contraction tallied in the third quarter. The reading came in slightly above market analysts’ expectations of a 3.0% drop. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity fell 0.7% in Q4, contrasting the previous period's 7.9% expansion.
While a detailed breakdown of the result is yet to be released, available data indicates household spending suffered in Q4 amid the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and the reimposition of containment measures. Retail sales contracted in the quarter, while consumer sentiment deteriorated. Meanwhile, depressed business confidence and uncertainty regarding the trajectory of the pandemic likely weighed on investment activity in the fourth quarter.
Commenting on the outlook for the Polish economy, Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas, economists at Goldman Sachs, reflected:
“Although the second pandemic wave in Poland was more severe than in spring, the economic impact of second-wave lockdowns appears more limited. This is not unique to Poland, and economies across CEEMEA have shown resilience (e.g., Russia and the Czech Republic). Looking ahead, while uncertainties remain surrounding the pace of vaccinations and the precise timing of a broad economic reopening, we maintain our baseline expectation of a sharp rebound this year. Indeed, Poland has begun a gradual reopening, allowing shopping malls and cultural venues to reopen with reduced capacity from February 1, as well as hotels, entertainment venues and outdoor sport facilities from February 12.”
FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to expand 4.0% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2022, our panelists see growth at 4.6%.
Poland - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||6.1||-8.2||4.0||9.4||7.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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February 23, 2021
Business confidence rose to minus 8.3 in February from January's minus 9.9.
February 18, 2021
Industrial output expanded 0.9% year-on-year in January (December: +11.1% yoy), marking the weakest expansion since June 2020.
February 15, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.20% in January over the previous month, picking up from December's 0.10% rise, according to a preliminary reading.
February 12, 2021
According to a preliminary reading, the economy shrank at a steeper rate in the final quarter of 2020, with GDP decreasing 2.8% year-on-year, below the 1.5% contraction tallied in the third quarter.
February 3, 2021
At its meeting on 3 February, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) once again decided to maintain the reference rate at its historic low of 0.10%.