Poland Investment

Economic growth picks up in the second quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Poland's GDP increased 3.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, following a 3.5% expansion in the prior quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output expanded 1.0% in Q2, following a 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter.

Investment and exports shift into higher gear: Compared with the prior quarter's data, readings in Q2 improved for fixed investment (+8.4% in annual terms vs +2.4% in Q1), exports of goods and services (+10.8% vs +5.6% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+10.4% vs +6.1% in Q1). In contrast, readings softened for private consumption (+2.8% vs +3.3% in Q1) and government consumption (+1.7% vs +6.0% in Q1).

Panelist insight: ING’s Adam Antoniak commented: “The 2Q26 GDP data came as a positive surprise, with the economy proving remarkably resilient to the outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the resulting rise in oil prices. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East had prompted us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.7% to 3.4%. Recent growth data provides a strong starting point for the second half of the year and increases upside risks to our revised forecast. However, given the persistent uncertainty surrounding the medium-term impact of the prolonged US-Iran conflict on Poland's economy, we maintain our cautious 2026 GDP growth forecast of 3.4%.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish investment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable investment forecast available for Polish investment.

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