Investment in Poland
Poland - Investment
Growth weakens to over-six year low in Q1 but economy shows resilience
In the first quarter, the economy grew 2.0% year-on-year in unadjusted terms, according to a second estimate released by Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS). The print surpassed the preliminary estimate of a 1.9% increase, although it was down from Q4 2019’s 3.2% expansion and marked the softest reading since Q3 2013. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted a revised 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms (previously reported: -0.5% quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted) after rising 0.2% in Q4, also marking the weakest performance of the economy since Q3 2013.
Unadjusted year-on-year figures show domestic demand excluding inventories weakened sharply in the quarter, as did external demand. Particularly, household spending eased (Q1: +1.2% year-on-year; Q4: +3.3% yoy) amid cooling wage growth, a rising unemployment rate and depressed consumer sentiment. Moreover, fixed investment growth slumped (Q1: +0.9% yoy; Q4: +6.1% yoy), as companies cut investment plans in the face of lockdown and soaring economic uncertainty. On the other hand, government spending growth gained pace in a bid to cushion the slowdown (Q1: +4.3% yoy; Q4: +3.2% yoy). Moreover, destocking had a neutral effect on economic growth after subtracting 2.5 percentage points in the previous quarter as companies had opted to lighten their warehouses amid weaker demand prospects.
On the external front, net exports contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth, notably down from Q4’s 2.0 percentage-point contribution. Export growth slowed to 0.6% (Q4: +2.0% yoy) amid widespread lockdowns and disrupted supply chains in the EU, while imports contracted 0.2% on downbeat domestic demand after falling 2.0% in Q4.
GDP is expected to plunge this year, with the downturn largely concentrated in Q2. Lockdown measures, which are being gradually lifted, will hit consumer spending, while vanishing European demand and disrupted supply chains will weigh on the industrial sector. The severity and longevity of the pandemic remains the key risk to the outlook.
FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to shrink 3.5% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, our panelists see growth at 4.4%.
Poland - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||10.0||6.1||-8.2||4.0||8.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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May 29, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.2% over the previous month in May, following April’s 0.1% dip, according to provisional data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
May 29, 2020
In the first quarter, the economy grew 2.0% year-on-year in unadjusted terms, according to a second estimate released by Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
May 29, 2020
On 28 May, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) slashed the reference rate from 0.50% to a new record low of 0.10%, in a further bid to mitigate the fallout from coronavirus.
May 25, 2020
Retail sales nosedived 22.6% year-on-year in April amid lockdown (March: -7.0% yoy), marking the steepest fall on record.
May 25, 2020
Manufacturing-sector business confidence recovered some lost ground in May, although it remained deeply entrenched in pessimist terrain due to measures to contain the spread of Covid-19.