National Bank of Kazakhstan leaves rates unchanged in August

Bank meets expectations and keeps rates steady: At its meeting on 29 August, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to maintain the base rate at 16.50%, with the interest-rate corridor unchanged at plus or minus one percentage point. The decision was in line with market expectations and marked the fourth consecutive hold; the NBK has raised rates by a cumulative 225 basis points since December 2024.

Decision driven by sticky inflation: The Bank kept rates stable due to persistently high inflation, which stood at 11.7% in July. Price pressures in the services sector remain elevated, driven by strong government and private spending. Moreover, in July, households’ expectations rose for future inflation, which they see rising from current levels. That said, the Bank did not hike rates further due to slowing underlying inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank will implement new minimum reserve requirements for banks from September to strengthen monetary policy transmission.

Most panelists expect stable rates through year-end: A majority of our panelists see the Central Bank standing pat through December. However, the NBK was more hawkish than at its past meeting and said that, if inflation does not slow significantly in the coming months, it may hike the base rate to bring price pressures toward its 5.0% target in the medium term. This could cause our panelists to revise their forecasts ahead. Upside risks to rates include looser-than-expected fiscal policy and stronger-than-expected domestic demand.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Kazakhstani interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Kazakhstani interest rate projections.

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