Interest Rate in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan - Interest Rate
Central Bank keeps rates unchanged in January
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 9.00% at its 25 January meeting, marking the third consecutive hold, after having cut it by 50 basis points in July 2020. Moreover, the rate corridor was kept at plus or minus 1.0 percentage point.
The Bank’s decision came despite the pandemic continuing to spark uncertainty, amid increases in domestic Covid-19 cases and the recent imposition of tougher restrictions in the EU, which could harm the external sector. However, the need to contain inflation—which has risen in recent months—and bring it back to the target band of 4–6%, as well as the threat of downward pressure on the tenge, did not leave any room for further cuts.
Going forward, the Bank struck a cautious tone, stating it would mainly consider “the actual dynamics of inflation” in its next decisions regarding the base rate. In short, it seems that the Bank will continue to prioritize price stability, and as such, if inflation is brought down closer to the target, the Bank could cut rates to spur activity.
On the outlook, Artem Zaigrin at SOVA Capital said:
“Passing the inflation spike could pave the way for NBK to cut rates starting from 2Q21. The dissipation of geopolitical risks could push the KZT/$ rate to 410 by YE21, we think.”
The Bank’s next policy rate decision is scheduled for 9 March.
FocusEconomics panelists see the base rate ending 2021 at 8.79% and 2022 at 8.52%.
Kazakhstan - Interest Rate Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 16.00 | 12.00 | 10.25 | 9.25 | 9.25 |
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Chart
Kazakhstan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 382.9 | 0.32 % | Jan 01 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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Economic News
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Kazakhstan: Economy contracts at moderate pace in 2020
February 16, 2021
A preliminary estimate released on 16 February revealed the economy was down 2.6% in 2020.
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Kazakhstan: Industrial activity deteriorates in January
February 12, 2021
Industrial output dropped 4.1% in January in annual terms (December: +0.3% yoy).
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Kazakhstan: Inflation decreases in January but remains elevated
February 1, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.60% over the previous month in January, slowing down from December's 0.87% increase.
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Kazakhstan: Central Bank keeps rates unchanged in January
January 25, 2021
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 9.00% at its 25 January meeting, marking the third consecutive hold, after having cut it by 50 basis points in July 2020.
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Kazakhstan: Industrial output expands at fastest pace since May in December
January 12, 2021
Industrial production expanded 0.3% year-on-year in December (November: -2.9% yoy).
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