Base Rate in Kazakhstan
The Base Rate (%, eop) ended 2024 at 15.25%, down from the 15.75% end-2024 value and down from the reading of 6.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average interest rate in CIS Countries was 18.77% at end-2024. For more information on interest rate, visit our dedicated page.
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Kazakhstan from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base Rate (%, eop) | 9.00 | 9.75 | 16.75 | 15.75 | 15.25 |
Central Bank stands pat again in June
Rates remain at some of the highest levels in recent history as expected: At its meeting on 5 June, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to maintain the base rate at 16.50% and keep the interest rate corridor at plus or minus one percentage point. The hold matched April’s decision and came on the heels of a cumulative 225 basis point of hikes since late 2024. As a result, rates remain at some of their highest levels in recent decades and only slightly below the 2022–2023 peaks. The decision had been priced in by the markets.
Stubborn inflation and elevated global economic uncertainty keep the Bank on hold: The NBK opted to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance due to sticky inflation and rising inflationary risks. Price pressures trended up at the outset of 2025, fanned by energy tariff hikes, sturdy consumer demand, fiscal stimulus, rising inflation expectations and elevated inflation in key trade partner Russia. As a result, policymakers hiked their end-2025 and 2026 inflation forecasts by 0.5 percentage points. In addition, the NBK raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 due to stronger domestic demand and investment activity. The January reopening of the Tengiz oil field notably boosted capital outlays. Still, the Bank pointed to significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook—particularly U.S. tariff policy and declining oil prices—which likely dissuaded it from hiking rates further in May.
Slight easing still on the horizon despite hawkish tilt: In its communiqué, the NBK struck a more hawkish tone than in past meetings, indicating that it is “highly probable” that it would stand pat through December, while leaving the door open for further policy tightening “if necessary”. Notably, the Bank highlighted that inflation risks had tilted to the upside due to unanchored inflation expectations, fiscal stimulus and second-round effects of a VAT hike earlier this year. Our panelists expect the Bank to kick off a monetary policy loosening cycle later this year. Still, some panelists see the Bank on hold or hiking rates. Our end-2025 Consensus interest rate forecast has been hiked by around 100 basis points since the NBK last met in April. The Bank will announce its next monetary policy decision on 11 July.
Panelist insight: Analysts at the EIU commented: “Uncertainty over the inflation outlook is heightened by global trade instability and the government's proposed 2026 tax reforms. Our baseline forecast is for the NBK to hold rates unchanged for a period and return to a mild easing stance from late 2025. However, there is a clear risk that resilient price pressures will delay this process or trigger further near-term tightening.” Goldman Sachs’ Basak Edizgil and Clemens Grafe were more hawkish: “The Committee stated that the risks have now become pro-inflationary from stronger domestic demand, higher external inflation, and elevated inflation expectations. The NBK emphasised that the current inflation dynamics require monetary policy to remain tighter for longer and guided towards stable rates until the end of 2025, as it is currently the case in our baseline.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Kazakhstani interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Kazakhstani interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Kazakhstani interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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