South Africa Economic Outlook
January 28, 2020
The economy seemingly sank into technical recession in the fourth quarter of last year. Industrial production slumped in October–November, weighed on by falls in both mining and manufacturing output, while December’s unprecedented rolling blackouts by Eskom and over one-year low PMI hint that industrial production plunged further at the end of Q4. In addition, on the demand-side, household spending likely remained subdued amid lingering pessimism among consumers reflected in plummeting merchandise imports in October–November. That said, a positive trade balance in the same period suggests that the external sector buffered the downturn somewhat. Meanwhile, the economy’s woes likely persisted at this year’s outset as large companies announced thousands of job cuts in January; the country’s unemployment rate already stands at nearly a third of the labor force.South Africa Economic Growth
The economy should recover somewhat this year, yet growth is likely to remain subdued. More upbeat household spending and an expected rebound in capital investment, thanks to cheaper credit conditions, should provide a minor boost. However, fiscal challanges remain high and could worsen if Eskom’s financial woes deepen. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 1.0% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% in 2021.South Africa Economy Data
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South Africa Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.26 | 0.29 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 13.98 | -0.21 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | -0.44 % | Jan 06 |
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South Africa Economic News
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South Africa: Manufacturing production falls at the sharpest pace in over five years in December
February 11, 2020
On an annual basis, manufacturing output plummeted 5.9% in December, (November: -3.2% year-on-year) thus marking the worst result since August 2014 as an unprecedented level of rolling blackouts hampered the industrial sector at year-end.
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South Africa: Private sector activity up a notch in January
February 5, 2020
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 48.3 from 47.6 in December, which had marked a 14-month low.
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South Africa: Inflation rises in December
January 22, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, up from a 0.1% increase in November.
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South Africa: SARB slashes rates in January
January 16, 2020
At its meeting ending 16 January, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) unanimously decided to axe the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
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South Africa: Manufacturing production contracts in November
January 8, 2020
Manufacturing output plummeted 3.6% in November, following October’s 0.8% drop.
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