South Africa Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
The economic scenario likely remained challenging in Q3, after the historic plunge in activity in Q2. While the pace of decline moderated from Q2 due to the gradual easing of restrictions, industrial output contracted relatively sharply in the quarter. Meanwhile, business sentiment remained entrenched in negative territory in the same period, likely holding back capital spending. Turning to Q4, however, the manufacturing PMI returned to growth for the first time in 18 months, hitting an over two-and-a-half-year high amid improved demand dynamics. Moreover, despite a stubbornly high number of Covid-19 cases, authorities announced the reopening of borders to all international travelers on 11 November, in a bid to revive the ailing tourism industry. In other news, on 28 October, the government tabled its medium-term budget statement, reaffirming its commitment to fiscal consolidation and debt stabilization.South Africa Economic Growth
After this year’s projected contraction at the hands of Covid-19, the economy is seen rebounding in 2021 as domestic and foreign demand revive. That said, high unemployment and persistent electricity shortages are likely to weigh on growth, while frail fiscal metrics and a ballooning public debt stock pose additional risks. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.6% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2022.South Africa Economy Data
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South Africa Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.26 | 0.29 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 13.98 | -0.21 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | -0.44 % | Jan 06 |
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South Africa Economic News
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South Africa: Rand hits eight-month high in November on Biden win and positive Covid-19 vaccine trials
November 16, 2020
The South African rand (ZAR) posted strong gains against the U.S. dollar over the past month, largely reflecting improved market sentiment following Joe Biden’s win in the U.S.
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South Africa: Decline in manufacturing activity softens in September
November 10, 2020
Manufacturing output slid 2.6% in year-on-year terms in September, which was above August's 11.1% decrease and marked the best result since February.
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South Africa: PMI returns to expansionary territory for the first time in 18 months in October
November 4, 2020
The South Africa IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in October, from September’s 49.4 and marking the best reading in over two-and-a-half years.
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South Africa: Inflation hits three-month low in September
October 28, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.17% over the previous month in September, mirroring August's reading.
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South Africa: Government tables medium-term budget; sticks to debt stabilization plan but raises reliance on public wage cuts
October 28, 2020
On 28 October, the government unveiled the FY 2020 medium-term budget policy statement to parliament, reaffirming its commitment to fiscal consolidation—as established in June’s supplementary budget—and to bringing back debt stocks to a sustainable level.
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