South Africa Economic Outlook
March 19, 2019
Fourth-quarter growth confirmed the South African economy’s slow but steady comeback from last year’s short-lived recession. On the demand side, fixed investment fell for the fourth quarter in a row as economic unrest pushed firms to rethink their outlays on machinery and equipment; by the same token, this also bruised imports. Household spending, on the other hand, was upbeat despite elevated inflation, as was government spending. Meanwhile, exports appeared to benefit from a cyclical pick-up across the region. Looking ahead, available current-quarter data hints at a protracted recovery. Moreover, rolling blackouts in recent weeks have highlighted Eskom’s shortcomings. The state-owned power utility’s crippled finances took center-stage when this year’s budget was presented on 20 February. Although analysts praised Tito Mboweni’s plans as a net-positive for the ailing economy, they were also quick to note that an Eskom bailout could push this year’s fiscal deficit beyond 4.0% of output.South Africa Economic Growth
South Africa’s short-term recovery will hinge on Cyril Ramaphosa’s last-ditch economic reforms and, in turn, a mandate for his African National Congress on 8 May. Meanwhile, higher real wages and new business-friendly prescriptions should help lift economic sentiment. Notably, some analysts expect Mboweni’s budget to have averted a credit-rating downgrade by Moody’s. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.South Africa Economy Data
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South Africa Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.74 | 0.29 % | Mar 20 |
| Exchange Rate | 14.37 | -0.21 % | Mar 20 |
| Stock Market | 0.6 | -0.44 % | Mar 20 |
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South Africa Economic News
South Africa: Manufacturing stalls once more in January
March 18, 2019
A preliminary estimate revealed little improvement for the manufacturing sector at the outset of the year.
South Africa: Fixed investment weighs on consumer spending- and net export-led growth in Q4 2018
March 5, 2019
South Africa’s economy slumped through last year-end but nonetheless expanded modestly in seasonally-adjusted and annualized (saar) terms.
South Africa: Private-sector output stabilizes in February
March 5, 2019
In February, the Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed 0.6 points to 50.2 points, landing above the 50-point threshold that distinguishes improvement from deterioration in the South African private sector for the first time in eight months. February’s reading reflected a more moderate fall in new orders, as well as stabilizing output on the heels of a seven-month decline.
South Africa: Inflation touches 10-month low in January
February 20, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.2% from a month earlier in January, in line with December’s outturn but landing below analysts’ expectations.
South Africa: Manufacturing gains muted in December
February 12, 2019
A preliminary estimate showed an ailing manufacturing sector in December.
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