South Africa Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018An inventory-driven recovery in the third quarter topped analysts’ estimates and ended the technical recession that blighted the economy through the first half of the year. In annualized terms, household spending staged a comeback following a value-added tax hike in the second quarter and appears to have also received a one-off boost from government employees’ back pay. Fixed investment, on the other hand, contracted sharply as firms’ plans were put off by the controversial land-reform debate. Despite a jump in exports, bolstered in part by greater automotive-related volumes, the external sector dragged on headline growth. Meanwhile, a supply-side breakdown revealed an industry- and agriculture-driven rebound in the quarter. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, improved private-sector metrics through November could hint at a sorely-needed upturn in fixed investment. On the other hand, fiscal woes—compounded by weak growth prospects and rising debt-servicing costs—pushed two of the three credit-rating agencies to keep their junk-status views in recent weeks.
South Africa Economic GrowthTepid year-end growth prospects aside, FocusEconomics analysts expect the economy to bounce back somewhat next year. Higher real wages and last-ditch fiscal stimulus are likely to lift economic sentiment ahead of next year’s elections and should serve to stoke household spending and fixed investment, respectively. Additional credit-rating downgrades will remain a key downside risk amid tense economic and political anxieties, however. Concerns over fiscal slippage and the inadequate pace of structural reforms are weighing on medium-term growth prospects. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.
South Africa Economy Data
5 years of South Africa economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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South Africa Facts
|Bond Yield||8.78||0.29 %||Jan 16|
|Exchange Rate||13.72||-0.21 %||Jan 16|
|Stock Market||0.7||-0.44 %||Jan 16|
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South Africa Economic News
January 17, 2019
At its meeting ending 17 January, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.75%.
January 10, 2019
A preliminary estimate showed the manufacturing sector cooling off in November.
January 4, 2019
In December, the Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed 0.8 points to 49.0 points, closing in on the 50-point threshold that distinguishes deterioration from improvement in the South African private sector. December’s reading revealed a more modest deterioration in business conditions, reflected in smaller declines in output and new orders amid languishing demand.
December 12, 2018
Consumer prices climbed 0.2% from the previous month in November, down from October’s 0.5% increase.
December 11, 2018
A preliminary estimate showed the manufacturing sector rebounding in October.