South Africa Economic Outlook
May 26, 2020
The economy likely slipped into recession in the first quarter. Supply-side activity collapsed due to troubles at the state-owned utilities provider Eskom; manufacturing output contracted in January–February; and the Covid-19 related lockdown measures hammered domestic demand in March. Turning to the second quarter, the economic panorama has deteriorated even further. Strict containment measures will be hammering investment activity and private spending, with business confidence and the PMI diving to their respective record lows in April, while the unemployment rate seems to have surged. Against this backdrop, the government announced an aid package of up to USD 26.0 billion—about 10.0% of GDP—to support businesses and protect jobs and boost the welfare system. Authorities are set to ease the nationwide lockdown by 1 June, which should give the economy a much-needed respite.South Africa Economic Growth
The economy is set to plunge into a severe recession this year. Both fixed investment and private consumption are projected to be hard hit by the pandemic, amid rising unemployment and evaporating business confidence. Meanwhile, concerns over debt sustainability due to a ballooning fiscal deficit may prompt the country to seek additional IMF support to prevent a liquidity crisis. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy shrinking 6.4% in 2020, which is down 1.0 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and expanding 2.9% in 2021.South Africa Economy Data
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South Africa Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.26 | 0.29 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 13.98 | -0.21 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | -0.44 % | Jan 06 |
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South Africa Economic News
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South Africa: Rand rebounds in May
May 25, 2020
The South African rand (ZAR) recovered some lost ground against the U.S. dollar over the past month, chiefly thanks to recovering investor sentiment as the government gears up to reopen the economy.
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South Africa: SARB further cuts rate to new record low in May
May 21, 2020
On 21 May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) slashed its main lending rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%.
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South Africa: PMI falls at the fastest pace in the survey’s history in April
May 6, 2020
The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 44.5 in March to 35.1 in April, the lowest print in the survey’s history, which started in July 2011.
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South Africa: Government unveils stimulus to contain the impact of Covid-19 amid a dire fiscal outlook
April 27, 2020
On 21 April, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced measures to combat the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic totaling ZAR 500 billion (about 10% of GDP), which aim to support businesses, retain employment and shield those most affected by the crisis.
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South Africa: Rand slumps to new all-time low on rising fiscal concerns and surprise Central Bank cut
April 24, 2020
The South African rand (ZAR) sank to a new record low against the U.S. dollar in April amid faltering government action to curtail the rapid deterioration of the public accounts.
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