South Africa Economic Outlook
November 14, 2017The most recent data suggests that the economy continues to struggle after coming out of a technical recession in the second quarter. In the government’s medium-term budget policy statement released in October, the government confirmed that the fiscal deficit for the 2017/2018 fiscal year is expected to reach 4.3%, widening from the 3.1% fiscal shortfall observed in the previous fiscal year and the largest fiscal shortfall since 2009. The unemployment rate in Q3 remained extremely elevated at 27.7%, the same print observed in the previous quarter, a bad sign for private consumption. Manufacturing production contracted in September, and the latest PMI data from October point to another month of falling output. The latest batch of economic data and the somber outlook given by the government in the budget policy statement have raised the alarm of a possible credit rating downgrade in late November by Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings, which could set the tone for the key ANC leadership contest in December.
South Africa Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to recover in 2018 and 2019 on higher prices for commodities. Growth, however, remains constrained as incessant political noise has stalled implementation of reforms and is weighing on consumer and business confidence. Further credit downgrades or lower prices for commodities could also dent growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 1.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019.
South Africa Economy Data
5 years of South Africa economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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South Africa Facts
|Bond Yield||9.18||0.29 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||13.53||-0.21 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||0.1||-0.44 %||Dec 06|
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South Africa Economic News
December 5, 2017
Activity in the private sector remained in contractionary territory for the fourth consecutive month.
November 23, 2017
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to leave the repurchase rate unchanged at the end of its three-day meeting culminating on 23 November.
November 22, 2017
In October, consumer prices increased 0.3% month-on-month, coming in below the 0.5% rise observed in September.
November 9, 2017
According to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 9 November, year-on-year manufacturing production contracted 1.6% in September, contrasting the revised 1.8% increase observed in August (previously reported: +1.5% year-on-year).
November 7, 2017
Activity in the private sector remained in contractionary territory for the third consecutive month.