Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

August 27, 2019

The economy is expected to gain momentum in the second quarter, as GDP data for April and May posted firm month-on-month expansions, driven mainly by strong fixed investment. Furthermore, the external sector was robust, thanks to stronger exports of goods and services. Although private consumption declined on a tough base of comparison, underlying labor market conditions were healthy as reflected by the low unemployment rate and brisk year-on-year wage growth in Q2. Less positively, a weak June reading saw industrial production decline quarter-on-quarter in Q2, driven by a sharp contraction in extraction and related services output, which was only partially offset by a rebound in manufacturing. Looking at the third quarter, growth is likely faster than regional peers, aided by the strong labor market. That said, DNB’s July manufacturing PMI fell into contractionary territory on lower demand and output.

Norway Economic Growth

The economy will likely accelerate this year, as a healthy labor market and fixed investment—particularly in the petroleum sector—power domestic demand. That said, uncertainty over Brexit, volatile commodity prices and elevated household debt pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 1.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.8% in 2020.

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Norway Facts

Bond Yield1.13-0.65 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate9.03-0.38 %Sep 04
Stock Market859-0.08 %Sep 04

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