Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

The economy shrank in Q1 2019 in quarterly terms, contrasting the expansion posted in the final quarter of last year. The mainland economy, which excludes petroleum activities and related ocean transport, eked out an expansion, but slowed markedly from the prior quarter nonetheless. Falling fixed investment, which coincided with waning business confidence, was the main culprit for Q1’s poor outturn. The labor market, however, did not feel the chill, as the unemployment rate fell to a near five-year low in March. Turning to Q2, the government announced on 14 May that it would spend slightly more money than previously estimated this year and collect slightly less revenue. This fiscal revision should boost economic growth, although the national wealth fund will pick up the tab.

Norway Economic Growth

The economy should gain momentum this year. Greater investment in the hydrocarbon industry is seen driving growth, while higher wages, looser government spending and lower corporate tax rates also brighten prospects. However, tighter monetary policy, a slowdown across Europe and fraught global trade all cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% again in 2020. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.9% in 2020.

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Norway Facts

Bond Yield1.40-0.65 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate8.68-0.38 %Jun 13
Stock Market859-0.08 %Jun 13

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