Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

September 26, 2017

The economy recorded a better-than-expected performance in Q2, signaling that despite some sluggishness, the recovery from the collapse in global energy prices is now firmly underway. Boosting growth in the quarter was a rebound in the oil and gas sector, which had contracted sharply in Q1. Although exports expanded modestly as shipments of refined products rose, the turnaround in the external sector was largely due to a steep drop in imports. Domestically, household spending reached a more than four-year high as consumer confidence and employment continued their upward trajectories. Moreover, fixed investment shot up on soaring business confidence. It appears, however, that H2 got off to a more uneven start, with a substantial slowdown in the growth of industrial production in July. Having campaigned on tax cuts and paring back spending of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, which recently topped USD 1 trillion, the ruling Conservative Party-Progress Party coalition won a majority in parliament on 11 September, securing another four-year term for Prime Minister Erna Solberg.

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Norway Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.60-1.71 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate7.900.12 %Oct 16
Stock Market791-0.20 %Oct 16

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Norway Economic Growth

September 26, 2017

A turnaround in the oil and gas sector is expected to continue gathering steam in the coming quarters. The mainland economy is also improving on the back of falling unemployment, a recovery in fixed investment and loose monetary policy. Total GDP is expected to expand 1.6% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Mainland GDP, which excludes oil drilling activities, is expected to expand 1.8% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

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