Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

May 31, 2022

In Q1 2022, the economy contracted in sequential terms at the sharpest rate since the outbreak of the pandemic. Restrictions put in place in January to contain the spread of the Omicron variant hurt economic activity, which then picked up slightly in February and March after their removal. The GDP growth downturn in the quarter was broad-based, with private and public spending declining, and the external sector continuing to weigh on the reading. In Q2, activity should rebound. The manufacturing PMI showed that conditions improved at the strongest pace in five months in April. Additionally, government finances will be benefitting from high oil prices, boding well for a large fiscal surplus. That said, household spending could be in a tough spot, as price pressures hit an over 13-year high in April, likely capping consumption.

Norway Economic Growth

GDP is projected to grow at the second-strongest pace in nearly two decades this year. The moderation from 2021 will be due to softer public spending, as support measures are rolled back in a bid to cool the economy. The war in Ukraine, supply disruptions and the uncertain evolution of housing prices are risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists estimate total GDP to grow 3.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to expand 2.3% in 2023. Our panel sees mainland GDP increasing 3.6% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection, and growing 2.1% in 2023.

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Norway Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.58-0.65 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate8.78-0.38 %Jan 01

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