Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

Following the economy’s return to pre-pandemic levels in Q2, momentum has carried into Q3. GDP continued to expand in July—albeit at a more moderate pace than in June—with private consumption growth accelerating. Moreover, the external sector contributed to overall growth, as imports dropped back to a contraction and exports of goods and services expanded at a quicker rate compared to June. Meanwhile, in politics, the center-left Labour Party came first in the 13 September elections. Although the party fell short of an overall majority, it has begun talks to form a coalition that is likely to include the Center and the Socialist Left parties. Climate change and the future of the country’s oil and gas industry dominated the polls: The Labour Party aims for a gradual withdrawal from the industry, which accounts for around 14% of GDP and 40% of exports, and has helped build the USD 1.4 trillion wealth fund.

Norway Economic Growth

GDP is projected to rebound strongly this year and economic growth should accelerate in 2022, driven by improving private spending and investment. Additionally, the external sector will benefit from the global reopening of economies as vaccines continue to be rolled out. That said, uncertainty over the pandemic clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists estimate total GDP to grow 3.1% in 2021 and to expand 3.2% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Our panel sees mainland GDP increasing 3.8% in 2021 and growing 3.8% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the prior month’s projection.

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Norway Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.58-0.65 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate8.78-0.38 %Jan 01

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