Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

December 20, 2019

The economy was flat in the third quarter as a sharp contraction in exports counterbalanced stronger domestic demand, which was supported by rapid gross capital formation growth. Looking to the fourth quarter, the economy is likely picking up steam. Monthly GDP growth in October hit a 16-month high, propelled by upbeat fixed investment growth; industrial production surged in October as the state-owned Johan Sverdrup oilfield began production; while the contraction in year-on-year merchandise exports eased to a six-month low in November, suggesting the external sector is on the path to recovery. On a less positive note, private consumption growth could struggle in Q4 given higher interest rates and a recent small uptick in the unemployment rate.

Norway Economic Growth

Growth is projected to accelerate notably next year as a stronger housing market and low unemployment will support domestic demand, while the Johan Sverdrup oil platform should propel the energy sector. Nevertheless, a tight monetary stance and weak growth in the Euro area will likely keep momentum in check. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.0% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2021. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 1.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.6% in 2021.

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Norway Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.58-0.65 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate8.78-0.38 %Jan 01

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