Brazil Economic Outlook
November 6, 2018
Right-wing Jair Bolsonaro was elected president on 28 October, after a polarizing and turbulent election cycle. Bolsonaro campaigned on a largely market-friendly platform, vowing to continue with economic reforms and curb the worrysome fiscal deficit, which should bode well for the economy going forward if enacted. That said, Bolsonaro is a controversial and wildcard figure; he could thus have difficultly drumming up support in Congress to pass legislation throughout his tenure, while some uncertainty remains regarding his incoming policies. Meanwhile, mixed economic data is rolling in on the recovery. The unemployment rate fell in the third quarter and consumer confidence jumped in October, positive signs for household spending. However, industrial production contracted sharply in September and business confidence fell further the following month. Overall, growth is expected to have firmed in Q3 as the economy normalized after the truckers’ strike caused widespread disruptions in Q2.Brazil Economic Growth
After downgrading Brazil’s outlook last month, FocusEconomics panelists kept their view of 2019 growth unchanged this edition. Next year, the recovery should gain steam on the back of an improving labor market and robust fixed investment. Keeping the country’s finances on a positive trajectory is key to the country’s longer-term outlook and Bolsonaro’s pledges to pursue fiscal consolidation should keep growth on track. GDP is seen growing 2.3% in 2019 and expanding 2.5% in 2020.Brazil Economy Data
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Brazil Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 10.45 | -0.82 % | Nov 14 |
| Exchange Rate | 3.78 | -0.13 % | Nov 15 |
| Stock Market | 85,973 | -0.40 % | Nov 14 |
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Brazil Economic News
Brazil: Retail sales shrink in September
November 13, 2018
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) dropped 1.3% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, contrasting August’s 2.0% expansion. The fall was largely broad-based with six of the eight categories recording decreased sales.
Brazil: Inflation inches up in October
November 7, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.45% in October over the previous month, which followed September’s 0.48% increase and was below market expectations of a 0.55% rise.
Brazil: Bolsonaro wins presidency; questions linger over reform details
November 6, 2018
Jair Bolsonaro will take the reins of Latin America’s largest economy on 1 January, after winning 55% of the vote in the second-round presidential election held on 28 October.
Brazil: Industrial production plunges in September
November 2, 2018
Industrial production contracted for a third consecutive month in September.
Brazil: Manufacturing PMI rises in October
November 2, 2018
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector improved at the start of the fourth quarter.
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