Brazil Economic Outlook
June 11, 2019GDP contracted in the first quarter of the year for the first time since the severe recession in 2015-2016. A breakdown by components revealed broad-based weakness in the economy, with uncertainty at home and abroad strangling fixed investment. In addition, exports plunged on lower mining sales amid troubles at Vale, the slowdown in global trade and collapse in demand from key trading partner Argentina. Available data for the second quarter points to lingering softness: Industrial production barely grew in April and both consumer and business confidence fell in May. Meanwhile, in June, the Supreme Court ruled that state-run firms do not need congressional approval to sell subsidiaries, a win for state-run oil company Petrobras and Bolsonaro’s government. The decision will allow Petrobras to sell around USD 27 billion of assets to help reduce its bloated debt.
Brazil Economic GrowthThe recovery is seen languishing this year, picking up only modestly from 2018. Reform uncertainty will weigh on the business environment and dampen investment, while fiscal tightening and a tough external backdrop from rising protectionism and slowing global growth will also take their toll. This month, Brazil’s prospects were slashed for the fourth consecutive month. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 1.4% this year, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.88||-0.82 %||Jun 13|
|Exchange Rate||3.85||-0.13 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||98,774||-0.40 %||Jun 13|
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Brazil Economic News
June 14, 2019
In April, economic activity decreased 0.5% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity.
June 12, 2019
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.6% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in April, contrasting March’s 0.1% increase.
June 7, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.13% in May over the previous month, a softer gain than April’s 0.57% increase and undershooting expectations of a larger 0.20% rise.
June 4, 2019
Industrial production rose a soft 0.3% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in April, contrasting March’s revised 1.4% drop (previously reported: -1.3% mom) and undershooting market expectations.
June 3, 2019
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector appear to have deteriorated further in May.