Brazil Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020After GDP plunged at a record pace in Q2, the economy likely rebounded in Q3. Activity in the goods sector seemingly bounced back, with industrial production growing strongly in the quarter and retail sales climbing in July–August, bolstered by the emergency pandemic payments. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory in Q3, while confidence in the industrial sector rebounded in September. Turning to Q4, incoming data paints a mixed picture. Both the manufacturing PMI and business confidence hit new record highs in October, boding well for investment. However, consumer sentiment turned more pessimistic in the same month, hinting that the recovery could be losing momentum. In other news, on 3 November, the Senate passed the central bank autonomy bill, which would limit political interference in monetary policy. The bill still requires approval from the lower house of Congress, however.
Brazil Economic GrowthAfter this year’s projected contraction due to the Covid-19 hit, the economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021 as domestic and foreign demand recover. However, the gradual reducing of fiscal stimulus as the coronavirus shock fades, an elevated unemployment rate and ballooning public debt represent downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy rebounding and growing 3.4% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 2.5%.
Brazil Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.79||-0.82 %||Dec 31|
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Brazil Economic News
April 13, 2021
Retail sales rose 0.6% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January's 0.2% decrease.
April 9, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.93% from the previous month in March, picking up from the 0.86% rise recorded in February.
April 1, 2021
Industrial output dropped 0.7% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January's 0.4% increase and marked the first decline since April 2020.
April 1, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, dived to 52.8 in March, from February’s 58.4, marking a nine-month low.
March 26, 2021
The Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundação Getúlio Vargas) industrial business confidence index came in at 104.2 in March, down from February's 107.9, marking the weakest reading since August last year.