Brazil Economic Outlook
October 10, 2017Incoming data points to a gradual improvement in the Brazilian economy following the rebound in GDP in Q2. The unemployment rate fell more than expected in the three months up to August, extending a streak of gains seen since March. Business and consumer confidence also improved slightly in September, while the manufacturing PMI pointed to expansion for a sixth consecutive month. Despite the improvement in economic data, political turbulence is casting a long shadow on the strength of the recovery. President Michel Temer is facing another criminal corruption charge, his second in two months. While it is widely expected that Temer has enough support in Congress to avoid a trial—two-thirds of the Lower House must vote in favor of a trial for the case to move to the Supreme Court—the accusations have further dented Temer’s already abysmal popularity and his reform agenda could lose steam as politicians’ distance themselves from him as the October 2018 general election draws near. Despite all the political noise, the government managed to make some progress on its reform agenda and auctioned off several oil blocks and hydroelectric dams in recent weeks.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||9.63||-0.82 %||Oct 19|
|Exchange Rate||3.17||-0.13 %||Oct 19|
|Stock Market||76,283||-0.40 %||Oct 19|
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Brazil Economic Growth
October 10, 2017FocusEconomics see the economy growing a measly 0.7% in 2017 as falling investment and austerity measures dampen growth. Next year, the recovery is seen gaining speed with GDP expanding 2.3%, which is up a notch from last month’s forecast. Low inflation and looser monetary policy should help revive the domestic economy, although uncertainty is high given the election year.
Brazil Economic News
October 11, 2017
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) dropped 0.5% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in August, which was a deterioration from July’s zero growth.
October 3, 2017
In August, industrial production fell 0.8% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted July’s revised 0.7% increase (previously reported: +0.8% month-on-month).
October 2, 2017
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector were broadly unchanged in September.
September 26, 2017
Brazil’s current account balance came in at a deficit of USD 302 million in August, which was a smaller shortfall compared to August 2016’s USD 648 million deficit.
September 14, 2017
In July, economic activity rose 0.4% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).