Brazil Economic Outlook
May 15, 2018A stream of downbeat data on the Brazilian economy has rolled in, suggesting that the recovery is weak. Retail sales decelerated and unemployment rose in the first quarter, boding poorly for private consumption in the period. Moreover, recent figures for the industrial sector have also been soft, with industrial production dropping in March, and the manufacturing PMI falling in April. In addition, both business and consumer sentiment dropped in April. To raise much-needed funding, the government is pushing ahead with the privatization of state utility Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA, more commonly known as Eletrobras, Latin America’s largest power company. On 9 May, a congressional commission voted in favor of a bill allowing the privatization, despite public opposition. Additional votes in the lower house and senate still need to be held to approve the privatization, which if implemented could boost the government’s efforts to meet fiscal targets.
Brazil Economic GrowthThe economy is seen gaining steam this year thanks to low inflation, accommodative monetary policy and a rebound in investment. Although some progress has been made in improving government accounts, more tough reforms are needed to put public finances on a sustainable path, and a market-friendly outcome in October’s elections is key to supporting the economic outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 2.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the economy is seen growing 2.8%.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||10.42||-0.82 %||May 21|
|Exchange Rate||3.68||-0.13 %||May 21|
|Stock Market||81,815||-0.40 %||May 21|
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Brazil Economic News
May 16, 2018
At its 16 May meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Comité de Politica Monetaria, COPOM) decided to keep the benchmark SELIC interest rate at its record low of 6.50%.
May 16, 2018
In March, economic activity fell 0.7% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).
May 11, 2018
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) rose a moderate 0.3% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in March, which contrasted February’s 0.2% decrease.
May 10, 2018
Consumer prices in April rose 0.22% over the previous month, above March’s 0.09% rise.
May 4, 2018
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.2% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January’s revised 0.8% increase (previously reported: +0.9% month-on-month).