Brazil Economic Outlook
September 15, 2020
The economy shrank at a record-breaking pace in Q2 as social distancing measures slammed activity. The downturn came largely on the back of plunging household and capital spending as consumers and firms deferred non-essential purchases. However, exports rebounded in Q2, primarily driven by an upturn in commodity and food exports. Turning to Q3, incoming data suggests a recovery is taking hold. Both industrial production and retail sales expanded strongly in July as restrictions were gradually lifted, while the manufacturing PMI surged to a new record high in August, reflecting firming domestic activity. Meanwhile, on 1 September, the government extended the emergency stipend for low-income earners hit by the pandemic to the end of the year, although it was halved to BRL 300 per month (around USD 56). This will increase the cost of the program by BRL 100 billion to a total of BRL 350 billion.Brazil Economic Growth
GDP is set to contract markedly this year as Covid-19 containment measures constrain domestic activity. A rising unemployment rate and income losses will shred household spending, while elevated uncertainty will hamper investment. Moreover, muted global demand will constrain the external sector. A prolonged health crisis and political tensions pose downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 5.9% in 2020, which is up 0.7 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before growing 3.6% in 2021.Brazil Economy Data
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Brazil Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.79 | -0.82 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.02 | -0.13 % | Jan 01 |
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Brazil Economic News
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Brazil: Economic activity slows in July
September 14, 2020
Economic activity grew 2.1% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, moderating from the 5.3% increase logged in the previous month.
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Brazil: Retail sales growth eases in July
September 10, 2020
Retail sales grew 5.2% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, a softer than June's 8.5% increase.
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Brazil: Inflation hits four-month high in August
September 9, 2020
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.24% in August over the previous month, which was below July's 0.36% increase, marking the softest rise in prices since May.
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Brazil: Industrial output growth softens in July
September 3, 2020
Industrial output increased 8.0% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, a softer expansion than June’s 9.7% rise.
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Brazil: Manufacturing PMI hits jumps to new record high in August
September 1, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, shot up to 64.7 in August from 58.2 in July, marking a new record high as the recovery from the pandemic gained further ground.
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