Brazil Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020
After GDP plunged at a record pace in Q2, the economy likely rebounded in Q3. Activity in the goods sector seemingly bounced back, with industrial production growing strongly in the quarter and retail sales climbing in July–August, bolstered by the emergency pandemic payments. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory in Q3, while confidence in the industrial sector rebounded in September. Turning to Q4, incoming data paints a mixed picture. Both the manufacturing PMI and business confidence hit new record highs in October, boding well for investment. However, consumer sentiment turned more pessimistic in the same month, hinting that the recovery could be losing momentum. In other news, on 3 November, the Senate passed the central bank autonomy bill, which would limit political interference in monetary policy. The bill still requires approval from the lower house of Congress, however.Brazil Economic Growth
After this year’s projected contraction due to the Covid-19 hit, the economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021 as domestic and foreign demand recover. However, the gradual reducing of fiscal stimulus as the coronavirus shock fades, an elevated unemployment rate and ballooning public debt represent downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy rebounding and growing 3.4% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 2.5%.Brazil Economy Data
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Brazil Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.79 | -0.82 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.02 | -0.13 % | Jan 01 |
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Brazil Economic News
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Brazil: Economy bounces back at record pace in Q3
December 3, 2020
The economy bounced back robustly in the third quarter, growing at the quickest rate on record as the easing of Covid-19 containment measures and sizable fiscal stimulus enabled the gradual firming of activity.
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Brazil: Industrial production growth cools in October
December 2, 2020
Industrial production increased 1.1% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in October (September: +2.8% mom), marking the worst reading since April.
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Brazil: Manufacturing conditions improve at softer pace in November
December 1, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, dropped to 64.0 in November from 66.7 in October, which had marked the best reading since the survey began in February 2006.
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Brazil: Business confidence hits near-decade high in November
November 27, 2020
The Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundação Getúlio Vargas) industrial business confidence index came in at 113.1 in November, up from October's 111.2, marking the best reading since December 2010.
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Brazil: Consumer confidence falls in November
November 25, 2020
The seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation fell to 81.7 in November from October's 82.4.
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