Brazil Economic Outlook
October 11, 2021After the economy shrank slightly in sequential terms in Q2, available data for Q3 paints a mixed picture. While overall activity grew at a robust rate in July, the economy appears to be operating at two different speeds. Externally, exports have been supported by rising commodity prices and strong foreign demand. However, domestically, industrial production shrank in July–August and retail sales tumbled at the fastest pace in eight months in August amid declining consumer confidence, likely pointing to muted household spending in the quarter. Moreover, business confidence fell throughout the quarter, likely reflecting concerns around the political situation: While President Bolsonaro has toned down his anti-democratic rhetoric in recent weeks, tensions remain high ahead of next year’s general elections.
Brazil Economic GrowthEconomic activity is projected to rebound this year, before growth slows in 2022 as domestic demand normalizes and export growth falls from this year’s estimated jump. Moreover, frail fiscal accounts, a heavy debt burden and political polarization could weigh on activity, while uncertainty over the pandemic amid the spread of new Covid-19 strains further clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 5.0% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Brazil Economy Data
5 years of Brazil economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
|Bond Yield||6.79||-0.82 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||4.02||-0.13 %||Jan 01|
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
Brazil Economic News
October 13, 2021
The Brazilian real tumbled against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, hitting an over five-month low in early October.
October 8, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.16% over the previous month in September, coming in above the 0.87% rise seen in August.
October 6, 2021
Retail sales decreased 3.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in August, contrasting July’s 2.7% increase.
October 5, 2021
Industrial output decreased 0.7% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in August (July: -1.2% mom).
October 1, 2021
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 54.4 in September, up from 53.6 in August.