Brazil Economic Forecast

Brazil Economic Outlook

March 12, 2019

Brazil’s lackluster fourth quarter capped off a second, unenthusiastic year of economic recovery. Plunging inventories and weaker fixed investment caused growth to slow in Q4, while consumption was uneven. Public spending fell while private spending largely held up. Available indicators for the first quarter of 2019, meanwhile, have been patchy, revealing little positive carryover from last year’s stumble: Improved economic sentiment through February bodes well for domestic demand in the first quarter, but exports swung to contraction in February. In mid-February, Jair Bolsonaro took aim at the government’s strained finances and presented a bold vision for social-security reform. His ambitious plans, which set out to save more than BRL 1 trillion over the next decade, impressed markets. Congressional approval remains far from certain, however, and most analysts expect any successful legislation to get heavily watered down.

Brazil Economic Growth

The end of last year’s frenzied election is expected to make way for improved economic sentiment over the short-term and, along with continued employment gains and accommodative monetary policy, should kick the recovery into a higher gear. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish turn should bode well for the outlook. Implementation of sorely-needed economic reforms remains pivotal. FocusEconomics analysts put growth at 2.3% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 2.5% next year.

Brazil Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)201203204206208
GDP per capita (USD)12,27812,1068,7858,7209,896
GDP (USD bn)2,4682,4551,7961,7972,055
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.00.5-3.5-3.51.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.70.3-6.3-5.10.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.52.3-3.2-4.31.0
Investment (annual variation in %)5.8-4.2-13.9-10.3-1.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.1-3.0-8.3-6.42.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.32.2-4.4-6.32.1
Unemployment Rate7.16.88.511.512.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-6.0-10.2-9.0-7.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.556.365.570.074.0
Money (annual variation in %)10.99.96.33.84.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.96.410.76.32.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.26.39.08.73.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.12.211.37.7-2.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0011.7514.2513.757.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-15.5-2.9-13.338.926.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.362.663.963.253.31
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.162.353.343.483.19
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-4.2-3.3-1.3-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-74.8-104.2-59.4-23.5-9.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.3-4.019.747.767.1
Exports (USD billion)242225191185218
Imports (USD billion)240229171138151
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.2-7.0-15.1-3.117.6
Imports (annual variation in %)7.4-4.4-25.2-19.89.6
International Reserves (USD)359364356365374
External Debt (% of GDP)12.714.418.618.015.1

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Brazil Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.72-0.82 %Mar 20
Exchange Rate3.78-0.13 %Mar 20
Stock Market98,041-0.40 %Mar 20

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