Brazil Economic Outlook
March 12, 2019
Brazil’s lackluster fourth quarter capped off a second, unenthusiastic year of economic recovery. Plunging inventories and weaker fixed investment caused growth to slow in Q4, while consumption was uneven. Public spending fell while private spending largely held up. Available indicators for the first quarter of 2019, meanwhile, have been patchy, revealing little positive carryover from last year’s stumble: Improved economic sentiment through February bodes well for domestic demand in the first quarter, but exports swung to contraction in February. In mid-February, Jair Bolsonaro took aim at the government’s strained finances and presented a bold vision for social-security reform. His ambitious plans, which set out to save more than BRL 1 trillion over the next decade, impressed markets. Congressional approval remains far from certain, however, and most analysts expect any successful legislation to get heavily watered down.Brazil Economic Growth
The end of last year’s frenzied election is expected to make way for improved economic sentiment over the short-term and, along with continued employment gains and accommodative monetary policy, should kick the recovery into a higher gear. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish turn should bode well for the outlook. Implementation of sorely-needed economic reforms remains pivotal. FocusEconomics analysts put growth at 2.3% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 2.5% next year.Brazil Economy Data
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Brazil Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.72 | -0.82 % | Mar 20 |
| Exchange Rate | 3.78 | -0.13 % | Mar 20 |
| Stock Market | 98,041 | -0.40 % | Mar 20 |
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Brazil Economic News
Brazil: Economic activity contracts in January
March 18, 2019
In January, economic activity decreased 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic activity (IBC-Br, Indice de Atividade Economica do Banco Central).
Brazil: Retail sales bounce back in January
March 15, 2019
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) increased 0.4% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, notably contrasting December’s revised 2.1% contraction (previously reported: +2.2% month-on-month).
Brazil: Industrial production drops in January
March 13, 2019
Industrial production contracted in January, falling 0.8% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms.
Brazil: Bolsonaro’s ambitious social-security reform bill likely to get diluted in Congress
March 12, 2019
Taking aim at the government’s strained finances, newly-elected President Jair Bolsonaro presented Congress with a comprehensive social-security reform bill on 20 February.
Brazil: Business confidence rises further in February
March 1, 2019
Business sentiment in Brazil improved in February, with the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas) business confidence index rising to 99.0 points from 98.2 points in January.
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