Belarus Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy contracted at a softer annual pace in Q3 than in Q2 according to preliminary data. The slight improvement was driven by higher agricultural production and a smaller decrease in the manufacturing sector. However, domestic demand remained weak as indicated by soft retail sales, as protests likely dragged on domestic activity. In other news, political tensions have escalated in recent weeks after President Lukashenko ignored the opposition’s ultimatum asking him to step down by 26 October. As a result, the opposition called a general strike. While observance of the strike has so far been patchy, ongoing protests will likely dent sentiment and retail sales, and could impact industrial production—all of which bode ill for recovery in Q4.
Belarus Economic GrowthGDP is set to contract this year, hit by both the pandemic and political tensions. In 2021, the economy is expected to recover somewhat, although heightened uncertainty stemming from ongoing political instability could hamper investment, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 2.0% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the economy is also expected to grow 2.0%.
Belarus Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||2.10||-0.36 %||Dec 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Belarus Economic News
January 19, 2021
Industrial output dropped 0.7% in year-on-year terms in December, which was a deterioration from November's 4.3% increase.
December 30, 2020
A second estimate revealed the economy shrank 0.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2020, easing from the second quarter’s 3.3% decrease.
December 16, 2020
Industrial production expanded 4.3% in November (October: +4.2% yoy).
December 10, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.66% over the previous month in November, picking up from the 0.59% increase logged in October.
November 17, 2020
Industrial output rose 4.2% compared to the same month of the previous year in October, which followed September's 1.4% increase.