Belarus Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017The economic recovery has picked up momentum following two years of recession which ended at the start of this year. According to a first estimate, annual GDP grew at an over four-year high of 2.0% in the January–October period, up from 1.7% in the January–September period. A leap in annual industrial production growth, led by the manufacturing sector; a year-on-year acceleration in retail sales, bumped up by higher wages; and increased agricultural output propelled the rise. Renewed demand for Belarusian exports in Russia and higher prices for oil and potassic fertilizers—the nation’s chief exports—have also been key drivers of the rebound in economic growth. The IMF has expressed cautious optimism about the progress made, however. It recently warned of stagnation if proposed reforms to state-owned enterprises are not implemented. Measures to institute business-friendly practices are among President Lukashenko’s top priorities. On 23 November, Belarus’ parliament approved a draft law that will limit the number of fines that can be issued to firms and eliminate existing grounds for property confiscation.
Belarus Economic GrowthGrowth will continue to strengthen on the back of increased investment, solid private consumption and robust trade with Russia and CIS economies that will provide a boost to exports. A high level of non-performing loans in the banking sector remains a burden on the economy, however, posing risks to long-term financial stability. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 1.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and project growth rising to 1.9% in 2019.
Belarus Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||2.03||-0.36 %||Dec 06|
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Belarus Economic News
November 16, 2017
In October, industrial production growth accelerated to 8.1% over the same month of the previous year, up from the 6.1% year-on-year growth recorded in September. October’s print reflected an upsurge in manufacturing output and weaker expansions in the mining and quarrying, and water supply, waste management and remediation activities sectors.
November 13, 2017
Consumer prices increased 1.2% over the previous month in October, following a 0.3% month-on-month rise in September.
October 16, 2017
Consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month in September, contrasting the 0.8% month-on-month drop in August.
October 2, 2017
The economy picked up speed in the second quarter, as the recovery from a two-year long recession strengthened.
September 18, 2017
Industrial production jumped 6.8% over the same month of the previous year in August, a marked improvement from the 5.4% year-on-year expansion in July.