Belarus Economic Outlook
May 7, 2019
Growth slowed further in Q1 2019 due to spillover effects from a trade quarrel with Russia over oil import taxes, which dented government revenue. Belarus has historically relied on tax-free oil imports, exported at a profit, to generate a key source of state income. Budget strains, owing to the quarrel, forced a slash in consumer subsidies, triggering higher inflation and a contraction in wholesale trade, which likely translated into slower household spending in the quarter. In addition, industrial production teetered in Q1 as a result of the spat with Russia, which, coupled with falling agricultural output, weighed on exports and bruised economic activity. Meanwhile, Moody’s confirmed its B3 credit rating with a stable outlook; however, it also lowered its macroeconomic projections owing to the import tax row.Belarus Economic Growth
Growth is set to moderate this year, restrained by a more challenging domestic backdrop. Household spending will likely slow, undermined by an acceleration in inflation amid higher prices for oil. Moreover, the government’s reluctance to slash spending ahead of the 2020 elections could weigh on the fiscal surplus going forward. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again 2.4% in 2020.Belarus Economy Data
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Belarus Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 2.10 | -0.36 % | May 13 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | May 13 |
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Belarus Economic News
Belarus: Inflation recedes in April
May 13, 2019
Consumer prices were stable over the previous month in April (March: +0.4% month-on-month), with lower prices for services offsetting higher prices for food and non-food goods.
Belarus: Central Bank stays put in May
May 3, 2019
At its 3 May meeting, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) left the refinancing rate unchanged at an over decade-low 10.0%, in line with analysts’ expectations.
Belarus: Industrial production stays muted in March
April 18, 2019
Industrial production grew 0.9% year-on-year in the January-March period, matching January-February’s result.
Belarus: Growth slows to a near two-year-low in Q1
April 16, 2019
A preliminary estimate confirmed weak momentum from the second half of 2018 carried over into this year.
Belarus: Industrial production subdued in February
March 18, 2019
Industrial production grew 0.9% year-on-year in the January-February period, matching January’s result.
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