Belarus Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Economic conditions were improving prior to the outbreak of war in Ukraine, but have since seen a sharp moderation due to the impact of international sanctions. In March, annual GDP contracted for the time in over a year. Similarly, after hitting a multi-month high in January, industrial production swung into a marked contraction in February–March. Adding insult to injury, inflation hit a near seven year-high in March, weighing further on consumers’ purchasing power. In Q2, GDP continued to freefall in April, registering its sharpest contraction since December 2016 as the war raged on to the east and relentless sanctions by the West continued to strangle the economy. According to Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov, the aforementioned sanctions will likely result in the loss of around one-third of the country’s exports, boding ill for the economy ahead.
Belarus Economic GrowthFollowing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, our panelists sharply downgraded their growth forecasts for Belarus. GDP is projected to contract this year due to the impact of Western sanctions and the fallout from the war. This is expected to lead to a broad-based slowdown in the economy. A prolonged military campaign in Ukraine and additional sanctions pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to contract 6.3% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2023, GDP is expected to fall -0.4%.
Belarus Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||2.10||-0.36 %||Dec 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Belarus Economic News
May 17, 2022
Industrial output contracted 10.6% year-on-year in April (March: -6.4% yoy).
May 15, 2022
Consumer prices rose 1.57% in April over the previous month, a smaller increase than the 6.05% increase logged in March.
April 1, 2022
The Belarusian ruble continued to lose ground against the U.S. dollar over the past month, plummeting to an all-time low of 3.33 per USD in mid-March, amid a spiraling sovereign debt crisis due to the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war.
Belarus: Belarusian ruble collapses amid war in Ukraine; Central Bank hikes rate by 275 basis points to 12.00%
March 4, 2022
On 28 February, four days after war broke out in Ukraine, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus had its first meeting in seven months.
February 16, 2022
Industrial output expanded 7.2% year-on-year in January (December: +4.3% yoy).