Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

July 7, 2020

The panorama darkened further in the second quarter, after the economy shrank for the first time in over three years in the first quarter. Activity contracted at a sharper pace, on average, in April-May than in Q1. Moreover, industrial production plunged in April–May, largely reflecting constraining effects of the health crisis, while retail sales growth dropped to a near three-year low in May as households put off spending amid lingering uncertainty. Externally, the picture was similarly grim: Merchandise exports nosedived by nearly a third in April—the worst result in over five years—due to eviscerated foreign demand and global supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, in politics, authorities have detained Viktor Babaryko, President Lukashenko’s main rival in the 9 August’s presidential election, as part of a broader crackdown on the opposition. The sitting president is expected to win his sixth term in office.

Belarus Economic Growth

The economy will likely shrink this year, owing to Covid-19. The external sector is set to be particularly hard hit due to vanishing foreign demand. Moreover, investment activity is seen contracting amid deteriorating sentiment, while shrinking remittances and delayed spending will dent consumer demand. The decision to avoid social distancing measures could soften the blow, however. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 3.6% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2021, the economy is expected to rebound and grow 2.9%.

Belarus Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)6,1834,9485,7386,4906,813
GDP per capita (EUR)5,5524,4555,0225,5545,992
GDP (USD bn)58.647.054.561.664.6
GDP (EUR bn)52.642.347.752.756.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.8-
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-
Investment (annual variation in %)-15.5-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.947.247.245.444.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-0.419.430.220.127.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)13.511.
Policy Interest Rate (%)25.0018.0011.0010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.861.961.972.172.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.601.991.932.042.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-3.4-1.70.0-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.6-1.00.0-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.5-3.0-2.5-4.1
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)28.325.631.735.936.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.1-11.724.216.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.6-9.523.713.51.3
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)65.379.873.063.863.1

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Belarus Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.10-0.36 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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