Belarus Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020
The economy contracted at a softer annual pace in Q3 than in Q2 according to preliminary data. The slight improvement was driven by higher agricultural production and a smaller decrease in the manufacturing sector. However, domestic demand remained weak as indicated by soft retail sales, as protests likely dragged on domestic activity. In other news, political tensions have escalated in recent weeks after President Lukashenko ignored the opposition’s ultimatum asking him to step down by 26 October. As a result, the opposition called a general strike. While observance of the strike has so far been patchy, ongoing protests will likely dent sentiment and retail sales, and could impact industrial production—all of which bode ill for recovery in Q4.Belarus Economic Growth
GDP is set to contract this year, hit by both the pandemic and political tensions. In 2021, the economy is expected to recover somewhat, although heightened uncertainty stemming from ongoing political instability could hamper investment, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 2.0% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the economy is also expected to grow 2.0%.Belarus Economy Data
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Belarus Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 2.10 | -0.36 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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Belarus Economic News
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Belarus: Industrial output records slowest expansion since December 2020 in June, due to a less favorable base effect
July 16, 2021
Industrial production expanded 6.9% year-on-year in June (May: +11.5% yoy).
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Belarus: Economy records quickest upturn since Q2 2018 in Q2
July 16, 2021
According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth improved to 5.5% year-on-year in the second quarter (H1 2021: 3.3% yoy), from 1.1% in the first quarter.
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Belarus: Central Bank hikes rate by 75 basis points in surprise meeting in July amid high inflation
July 15, 2021
At an unscheduled meeting on 15 July, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus decided to hike the refinancing rate by 75 basis points from 8.50% to 9.25%, effective from 21 July.
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Belarus: Inflation comes in at highest level since December 2016 in June
July 9, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.65% in June over the previous month, picking up from the 0.55% increase logged in May.
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Belarus: EU sanctions target key sectors, although their effectiveness is still uncertain
July 5, 2021
In late June, EU member states announced substantial sanctions on Belarussian officials and entities, in a bid to punish Lukashenko’s regime for the hijacking of a Ryanair flight that occurred on 23 May.
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