Belarus Economic Outlook
October 6, 2020The economy contracted in Q2 on the fallout from the pandemic. The transport sector suffered markedly as travel between regions was reduced, while industrial production lost steam. Turning to Q3, available data paints a mixed picture: Cumulative GDP data for January–August shows a softer annual decline compared to January–June. However, retail sales growth remained below Q2’s average in August, while industrial production declined in the month as widespread protests likely held back activity somewhat. In other news, on 11 September, S&P Global Ratings kept Belarus’ credit rating at B but revised the outlook to negative from stable, citing risks emerging from the presidential election. The decision preceded Russia’s announcement on 14 September that it will lend USD 1.5 billion to Belarus, providing some relief to an economy ravaged by both the pandemic and political instability.
Belarus Economic GrowthThe economy is set to contract this year, hit by both the pandemic and political tensions. Moving to 2021, the economy is expected to recover somewhat, although heightened uncertainty emerging from ongoing political instability could hamper investment, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 3.8% in 2020. In 2021, the economy is expected to rebound and grow 2.3%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Belarus Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||2.10||-0.36 %||Dec 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Belarus Economic News
October 16, 2020
Industrial output grew 1.4% compared to the same month a year earlier in September, which contrasted August's 0.1% decrease.
October 11, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.94% from the previous month in September, accelerating from August's 0.17% rise.
September 15, 2020
Industrial output slid 0.1% year-on-year in August (July: +1.1% yoy).
September 10, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.17% from the previous month in August, marginally lower than July’s 0.19% rise.
September 3, 2020
Mass demonstrations have rocked Belarus since the 9 August election, raising uncertainty against an already fragile economic backdrop.