Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Economic conditions were improving prior to the outbreak of war in Ukraine, but have since seen a sharp moderation due to the impact of international sanctions. In March, annual GDP contracted for the time in over a year. Similarly, after hitting a multi-month high in January, industrial production swung into a marked contraction in February–March. Adding insult to injury, inflation hit a near seven year-high in March, weighing further on consumers’ purchasing power. In Q2, GDP continued to freefall in April, registering its sharpest contraction since December 2016 as the war raged on to the east and relentless sanctions by the West continued to strangle the economy. According to Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov, the aforementioned sanctions will likely result in the loss of around one-third of the country’s exports, boding ill for the economy ahead.

Belarus Economic Growth

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, our panelists sharply downgraded their growth forecasts for Belarus. GDP is projected to contract this year due to the impact of Western sanctions and the fallout from the war. This is expected to lead to a broad-based slowdown in the economy. A prolonged military campaign in Ukraine and additional sanctions pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to contract 6.3% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2023, GDP is expected to fall -0.4%.

Belarus Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)6,1834,9485,7386,4906,813
GDP per capita (EUR)5,5524,4555,0225,5545,992
GDP (USD bn)58.647.054.561.664.6
GDP (EUR bn)52.642.347.752.756.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.8-2.52.53.11.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-3.24.88.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-15.5-14.55.54.45.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-0.46.15.71.0
Unemployment Rate5.95.85.64.84.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.41.53.04.02.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.947.247.245.444.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-0.419.430.220.127.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.010.64.65.64.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)13.511.86.04.95.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)25.0018.0011.0010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.861.961.972.172.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.601.991.932.042.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-3.4-1.70.0-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.6-1.00.0-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.5-3.0-2.5-4.1
Exports (USD billion)26.223.128.733.432.3
Imports (USD billion)28.325.631.735.936.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.1-11.724.216.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.6-9.523.713.51.3
International Reserves (USD)4.24.97.37.29.4
External Debt (% of GDP)65.379.873.063.863.1

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Belarus Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.10-0.36 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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