Belarus Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy contracted at a softer annual pace in Q3 than in Q2 according to preliminary data. The slight improvement was driven by higher agricultural production and a smaller decrease in the manufacturing sector. However, domestic demand remained weak as indicated by soft retail sales, as protests likely dragged on domestic activity. In other news, political tensions have escalated in recent weeks after President Lukashenko ignored the opposition’s ultimatum asking him to step down by 26 October. As a result, the opposition called a general strike. While observance of the strike has so far been patchy, ongoing protests will likely dent sentiment and retail sales, and could impact industrial production—all of which bode ill for recovery in Q4.
Belarus Economic GrowthGDP is set to contract this year, hit by both the pandemic and political tensions. In 2021, the economy is expected to recover somewhat, although heightened uncertainty stemming from ongoing political instability could hamper investment, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 2.0% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the economy is also expected to grow 2.0%.
Belarus Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||2.10||-0.36 %||Dec 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Belarus Economic News
April 9, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.69% in March over the previous month, coming in below the 1.94% rise logged in February.
March 19, 2021
Industrial production increased 8.1% in February (January: +8.5% yoy).
March 12, 2021
At its 12 March meeting, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus kept the refinancing rate unchanged at its record low of 7.75%.
March 10, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.94% in February over the previous month, picking up from the 1.14% increase seen in January.
February 16, 2021
Industrial production expanded 8.5% year-on-year in January (December: -0.7% yoy).