Belarus Economic Outlook
February 6, 2018The economy escaped the grips of a two-year long recession in 2017. GDP growth jumped to the highest level in six years, coming in notably above the government’s target. The turnaround was propelled by an expansion in most key sectors. Rising export demand from Russia, following the country’s exit from a prolonged recession, boosted exports. Moreover, retail sales returned to growth in the year, improving for the tenth consecutive month in December as consumers’ real purchasing power was lifted by declining inflation; inflation dropped to a record low in the month. A turning point in the nation’s economic recovery came on 26 January, when Fitch Ratings upgraded Belarus’ credit rating from B- to B. Main reasons cited for the upgrade were reduced risks in near-term external financing, thanks to last year’s pre-financing of payments due in 2018 and a renewed stock of international reserves, along with improved monetary and fiscal management. The improved rating will enable Belarus to borrow more cheaply through the planned issuance of Eurobonds.
Belarus Economic GrowthFavorable demand from Russia and the Euro area should boost exports, which, along with healthy private consumption and strong investment, is expected to keep the recovery on track. While macroeconomic management has improved somewhat, and structural reforms are underway, downside risks stem from the nation’s high external and public debt, and the elevated level of non-performing loans in the banking sector. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 1.9% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and project growth edging up to 2.1% in 2019.
Belarus Economy Data
5 years of Belarus economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1.96||-0.36 %||Feb 16|
|Stock Market||0.2||0.0 %||Feb 15|
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Belarus Economic News
February 9, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.8% over the previous month in January, following a 0.2% month-on-month increase in December.
January 23, 2018
In December, growth in the industrial sector slowed considerably from the previous month: Industrial production expanded 3.9% over the same month of 2016, down from November’s 6.3% year-on-year growth.
January 10, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.2% over the previous month in December, a smaller rise than the 0.5% month-on-month rise in November.
December 29, 2017
Belarus’s economic recovery from a two-year long recession continued to pick up pace in the third quarter of 2017.
December 18, 2017
Consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous month in November, down from a 1.2% month-on-month jump in October.