Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

October 6, 2020

The economy contracted in Q2 on the fallout from the pandemic. The transport sector suffered markedly as travel between regions was reduced, while industrial production lost steam. Turning to Q3, available data paints a mixed picture: Cumulative GDP data for January–August shows a softer annual decline compared to January–June. However, retail sales growth remained below Q2’s average in August, while industrial production declined in the month as widespread protests likely held back activity somewhat. In other news, on 11 September, S&P Global Ratings kept Belarus’ credit rating at B but revised the outlook to negative from stable, citing risks emerging from the presidential election. The decision preceded Russia’s announcement on 14 September that it will lend USD 1.5 billion to Belarus, providing some relief to an economy ravaged by both the pandemic and political instability.

Belarus Economic Growth

The economy is set to contract this year, hit by both the pandemic and political tensions. Moving to 2021, the economy is expected to recover somewhat, although heightened uncertainty emerging from ongoing political instability could hamper investment, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 3.8% in 2020. In 2021, the economy is expected to rebound and grow 2.3%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Belarus Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)6,1834,9485,7386,4906,813
GDP per capita (EUR)5,5524,4555,0225,5545,992
GDP (USD bn)58.647.054.561.664.6
GDP (EUR bn)52.642.347.752.756.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.8-2.52.53.11.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-3.24.88.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-15.5-14.55.54.45.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-0.46.15.71.0
Unemployment Rate5.95.85.64.84.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.41.53.04.02.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.947.247.245.444.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-0.419.430.220.127.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.010.64.65.64.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)13.511.86.04.95.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)25.0018.0011.0010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.861.961.972.172.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.601.991.932.042.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-3.4-1.70.0-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.6-1.00.0-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.5-3.0-2.5-4.1
Exports (USD billion)26.223.128.733.432.3
Imports (USD billion)28.325.631.735.936.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.1-11.724.216.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.6-9.523.713.51.3
International Reserves (USD)4.24.97.37.29.4
External Debt (% of GDP)65.379.873.063.863.1

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Belarus Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.10-0.36 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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