Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

Following soft growth in Q3, the economy continued to lose steam in Q4: GDP growth fell in cumulative terms in November, with transportation and domestic trade recording weaker expansions. Moreover, the agricultural sector receded in cumulative terms in January–November. Meanwhile, a sluggish manufacturing subsector caused industrial production to fall in October, although output rebounded in November, despite a less favorable base. More positively, electricity production increased markedly in the first two months of Q4. Meanwhile, despite the mounting sanctions, exports to the EU have grown consistently since August 2020 without any sign of deterioration, suggesting the measures have had a limited impact. In other news, in its budget plan for 2022, the government sees spending at BYN 30.9 billion, including a reserved BYN 900 million for spending on wages or investment to respond to possible risks.

Belarus Economic Growth

GDP growth is seen losing pace in 2022, as the base effect turns less favorable. That said, continued support from Russia should provide some relief. Moreover, the planned commissioning of a second unit at the Astravets nuclear power plant by summer this year should boost industrial output. Additional sanctions, political instability and regional tensions cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 1.4% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2023, the economy is expected to grow 1.7%.

Belarus Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)6,1834,9485,7386,4906,813
GDP per capita (EUR)5,5524,4555,0225,5545,992
GDP (USD bn)58.647.054.561.664.6
GDP (EUR bn)52.642.347.752.756.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.8-2.52.53.11.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-3.24.88.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-15.5-14.55.54.45.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-0.46.15.71.0
Unemployment Rate5.95.85.64.84.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.41.53.04.02.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.947.247.245.444.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-0.419.430.220.127.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.010.64.65.64.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)13.511.86.04.95.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)25.0018.0011.0010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.861.961.972.172.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.601.991.932.042.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-3.4-1.70.0-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.6-1.00.0-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.5-3.0-2.5-4.1
Exports (USD billion)26.223.128.733.432.3
Imports (USD billion)28.325.631.735.936.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.1-11.724.216.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.6-9.523.713.51.3
International Reserves (USD)4.24.97.37.29.4
External Debt (% of GDP)65.379.873.063.863.1

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Belarus Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.10-0.36 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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