Belarus Economic Outlook
July 2, 2019
The economy continues to reel. Russia’s gradual elimination of export duties on oil and raising of the mineral extraction tax has marked the end of preferentially cheap oil imports to Belarus. This, along with contamination of the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, has slashed exports, and the industrial sector consequently contracted in May for the first time in over two years. Growth has also been dragged down by lower agricultural output, owing to the dearth of rainfall. That said, household spending likely remained resilient, evidenced by robust retail sales growth in April–May. Meanwhile, tensions with Russia are at fever-pitch: Russia will not be awarding any further loans and has also refused to compensate Belarus for loss of earnings caused by the oil contamination, until the two countries agree to a shared vision of integration. In response, Belarus has threatened the Russian government with legal action.Belarus Economic Growth
Growth is set to weaken this year. Private consumption is seen losing steam amid higher inflation and unemployment rate, weak business confidence will weigh on fixed investment, while Russia’s lackluster performance will likely drag on exports. A rebound in government spending ahead of the 2020 election should cushion the slowdown, but also poses downside fiscal risks. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2020.Belarus Economy Data
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Belarus Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 2.03 | -0.36 % | Jul 11 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jul 11 |
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Belarus Economic News
Belarus: Contraction of industrial sector eases in June
July 17, 2019
Industrial production fell 0.9% year-on-year in June, following a 3.3% contraction in May.
Belarus: Inflation falls in May
July 11, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.1% in June following a 0.3% upturn in May.
Belarus: Industrial production plummets to a near three-year low in May
June 17, 2019
Industrial production shrank 3.3% year-on-year in May, after April’s 2.1% expansion, owing to a deteriorating in the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying sectors.
Belarus: Inflation speeds up in May
June 10, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in May, following flat growth in April, largely reflecting higher prices for non-food goods and services. Inflation accelerated to 6.2% in May (April: 5.5%), moving further above the Central Bank’s 5.0% target.
Belarus: Industrial production gathers momentum in April
May 17, 2019
Industrial production grew 2.1% year-on-year in April, accelerating from March’s 0.9% result, owing to stronger production in the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying sectors.
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