Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Available data showed that economic activity continued to lose traction at the outset of the fourth quarter, on the heels of a seemingly marked slowdown in the third quarter. Industrial output growth fell to a 20-month low in October, due to weakness in the country’s all-important manufacturing sector. In addition, agricultural output contracted in October, likely partly due to restrictions on Belarussian milk exports by Russia, which is its largest trading partner. Meanwhile, retail sales growth softened to a 10-month low in the same month, signaling potential headwinds to private consumption growth. That said, the latest survey data was more upbeat, with the seasonally-adjusted composite economic sentiment indicator rising in October on improved optimism in the transport sector and higher confidence in the trade sector due to stronger sales expectations.

Belarus Economic Growth

Growth is seen decelerating slightly next year, although it should remain healthy thanks to solid household consumption growth propped up by sustained tightness in the labor market. Meanwhile, solid fiscal metrics and a well-managed external position should power the economy in the medium-term, while financial support from Russia should help with debt refinancing. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 2.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Belarus Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,8798,0295,9814,9155,741
GDP per capita (EUR)5,8835,8645,3704,4265,024
GDP (USD bn)74.676.056.746.754.3
GDP (EUR bn)55.755.550.942.047.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.7-3.8-2.52.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.94.3-2.4-3.92.9
Investment (annual variation in %)9.6-5.3-15.9-17.45.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.92.0-6.6-0.46.1
Unemployment Rate0.50.51.00.80.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.21.01.81.32.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.932.946.947.247.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)15.514.5-0.419.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)16.516.212.010.64.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.318.113.511.86.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)23.5020.0025.0018.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.951.191.861.961.97
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.891.031.601.991.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.1-6.9-3.2-3.6-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.6-5.2-1.8-1.7-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-2.6-2.1-2.5-2.9
Exports (USD billion)36.535.426.223.128.7
Imports (USD billion)41.138.128.325.631.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.8-3.1-26.1-11.724.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.6-7.5-25.6-9.523.3
International Reserves (USD)6.75.14.24.97.3
External Debt (% of GDP)53.152.667.580.473.6

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Belarus Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.12-0.36 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 10

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