Belarus Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021Cumulative data for activity in the third quarter suggests a slowdown from H1’s growth. August’s data shows deteriorations in the agricultural, construction, wholesale and retail, and manufacturing subsectors. Moreover, on the expenditure side, fixed investment remained severely down in August. Meanwhile, the Central Bank’s tighter stance could have hampered new loans, potentially hindering private spending. In other news, Russia pledged to lend Belarus an additional USD 630 million through to the end of next year in a meeting held between the two countries on 9 September. Moreover, Belarus agreed to buy over USD 1.0 billion worth of Russian weaponry, in a further sign of deepening economic and military ties. At the same time, tensions are running high with E.U. neighbors after the two countries held combined military drills in mid-September.
Belarus Economic GrowthActivity is seen broadly keeping pace in 2022 amid resolute support from Russia, which includes advantageous deals such as discounted gas prices. That said, the country has so far fallen short of full integration with Russia and at the same time it continues to drift away from western markets, which will keep investment subdued. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 1.9% in 2021. In 2022, the economy is expected to grow 1.8%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
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Belarus Economic News
September 16, 2021
Industrial production expanded 3.7% year-on-year in August (July: +2.7% yoy).
September 10, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.18% in August over the previous month, picking up from July's 0.07% rise.
August 17, 2021
Industrial production increased 2.7% year-on-year in July (June: +6.9% yoy).
August 10, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.07% from the previous month in July, which was below the 0.65% increase seen in June..
Belarus: Industrial output records slowest expansion since December 2020 in June, due to a less favorable base effect
July 16, 2021
Industrial production expanded 6.9% year-on-year in June (May: +11.5% yoy).