Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

The economy contracted at a softer annual pace in Q3 than in Q2 according to preliminary data. The slight improvement was driven by higher agricultural production and a smaller decrease in the manufacturing sector. However, domestic demand remained weak as indicated by soft retail sales, as protests likely dragged on domestic activity. In other news, political tensions have escalated in recent weeks after President Lukashenko ignored the opposition’s ultimatum asking him to step down by 26 October. As a result, the opposition called a general strike. While observance of the strike has so far been patchy, ongoing protests will likely dent sentiment and retail sales, and could impact industrial production—all of which bode ill for recovery in Q4.

Belarus Economic Growth

GDP is set to contract this year, hit by both the pandemic and political tensions. In 2021, the economy is expected to recover somewhat, although heightened uncertainty stemming from ongoing political instability could hamper investment, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 2.0% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the economy is also expected to grow 2.0%.

Belarus Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)6,1834,9485,7386,4906,813
GDP per capita (EUR)5,5524,4555,0225,5545,992
GDP (USD bn)58.647.054.561.664.6
GDP (EUR bn)52.642.347.752.756.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.8-2.52.53.11.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-3.24.88.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-15.5-14.55.54.45.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-0.46.15.71.0
Unemployment Rate5.95.85.64.84.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.41.53.04.02.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.947.247.245.444.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-0.419.430.220.127.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.010.64.65.64.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)13.511.86.04.95.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)25.0018.0011.0010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.861.961.972.172.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.601.991.932.042.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-3.4-1.70.0-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.6-1.00.0-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.5-3.0-2.5-4.1
Exports (USD billion)26.223.128.733.432.3
Imports (USD billion)28.325.631.735.936.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.1-11.724.216.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.6-9.523.713.51.3
International Reserves (USD)4.24.97.37.29.4
External Debt (% of GDP)65.379.873.063.863.1

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Belarus Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.10-0.36 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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