Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

Cumulative data for activity in the third quarter suggests a slowdown from H1’s growth. August’s data shows deteriorations in the agricultural, construction, wholesale and retail, and manufacturing subsectors. Moreover, on the expenditure side, fixed investment remained severely down in August. Meanwhile, the Central Bank’s tighter stance could have hampered new loans, potentially hindering private spending. In other news, Russia pledged to lend Belarus an additional USD 630 million through to the end of next year in a meeting held between the two countries on 9 September. Moreover, Belarus agreed to buy over USD 1.0 billion worth of Russian weaponry, in a further sign of deepening economic and military ties. At the same time, tensions are running high with E.U. neighbors after the two countries held combined military drills in mid-September.

Belarus Economic Growth

Activity is seen broadly keeping pace in 2022 amid resolute support from Russia, which includes advantageous deals such as discounted gas prices. That said, the country has so far fallen short of full integration with Russia and at the same time it continues to drift away from western markets, which will keep investment subdued. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 1.9% in 2021. In 2022, the economy is expected to grow 1.8%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Belarus Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)6,1834,9485,7386,4906,813
GDP per capita (EUR)5,5524,4555,0225,5545,992
GDP (USD bn)58.647.054.561.664.6
GDP (EUR bn)52.642.347.752.756.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.8-2.52.53.11.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-3.24.88.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-15.5-14.55.54.45.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-0.46.15.71.0
Unemployment Rate5.95.85.64.84.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.41.53.04.02.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.947.247.245.444.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-0.419.430.220.127.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.010.64.65.64.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)13.511.86.04.95.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)25.0018.0011.0010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.861.961.972.172.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.601.991.932.042.09
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-3.4-1.70.0-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.6-1.00.0-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.5-3.0-2.5-4.1
Exports (USD billion)26.223.128.733.432.3
Imports (USD billion)28.325.631.735.936.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.1-11.724.216.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.6-9.523.713.51.3
International Reserves (USD)4.24.97.37.29.4
External Debt (% of GDP)65.379.873.063.863.1

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Belarus Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.10-0.36 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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