Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus Economic Outlook

July 2, 2019

The economy continues to reel. Russia’s gradual elimination of export duties on oil and raising of the mineral extraction tax has marked the end of preferentially cheap oil imports to Belarus. This, along with contamination of the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, has slashed exports, and the industrial sector consequently contracted in May for the first time in over two years. Growth has also been dragged down by lower agricultural output, owing to the dearth of rainfall. That said, household spending likely remained resilient, evidenced by robust retail sales growth in April–May. Meanwhile, tensions with Russia are at fever-pitch: Russia will not be awarding any further loans and has also refused to compensate Belarus for loss of earnings caused by the oil contamination, until the two countries agree to a shared vision of integration. In response, Belarus has threatened the Russian government with legal action.

Belarus Economic Growth

Growth is set to weaken this year. Private consumption is seen losing steam amid higher inflation and unemployment rate, weak business confidence will weigh on fixed investment, while Russia’s lackluster performance will likely drag on exports. A rebound in government spending ahead of the 2020 election should cushion the slowdown, but also poses downside fiscal risks. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2020.

Belarus Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.59.59.59.59.5
GDP per capita (USD)8,0628,3156,1834,9485,738
GDP per capita (EUR)6,1986,0735,5524,4555,022
GDP (USD bn)76.378.758.647.054.5
GDP (EUR bn)58.757.552.642.347.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.01.7-3.8-2.52.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.94.3-2.4-3.24.8
Investment (annual variation in %)9.0-5.7-15.5-14.55.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.92.0-6.6-0.46.1
Unemployment Rate0.50.51.00.80.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.21.01.81.32.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.932.946.947.247.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)15.514.5-0.419.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)16.516.212.010.64.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.318.113.511.86.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)23.5020.0025.0018.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.951.191.861.961.97
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.891.031.601.991.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.9-6.6-3.1-3.4-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-7.6-5.2-1.8-1.6-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-2.6-2.1-2.5-3.0
Exports (USD billion)36.535.426.223.128.7
Imports (USD billion)41.138.128.325.631.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.8-3.1-26.1-11.724.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.6-7.5-25.6-9.523.7
International Reserves (USD)6.75.14.24.97.3
External Debt (% of GDP)51.950.865.379.873.2

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Belarus Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.03-0.36 %Jul 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 11

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