Belarus Economic Outlook
A state-controlled economy:
Belarus has one of the most state-dominated economies in Europe, with government ownership in key sectors such as manufacturing, energy, and agriculture. The country’s economy relies heavily on trade with Russia, which provides financial support and subsidized energy. Western sanctions in response to Belarus’s political crisis have further deepened its dependence on Moscow.
Manufacturing and agriculture:The Belarusian economy is driven by manufacturing, particularly machinery, chemicals, and fertilizers. The country is also a major exporter of potash, a key component in global fertilizer production. However, the lack of market reforms and inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises limit economic competitiveness and innovation.
Sanctions and economic isolation:Western sanctions following the 2020 political crackdown and Belarus’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war have severely impacted trade and investment. Many foreign companies have exited Belarus, and export markets in Europe have shrunk. While Russia has provided economic assistance, long-term growth prospects are constrained by isolation from Western financial systems and markets.
Belarus economic outlook:Belarus’s economy faces a difficult future, with limited access to Western capital and reduced trade options. The government’s reliance on Russia makes it vulnerable to external pressures, and state-controlled policies limit economic dynamism. Unless structural reforms are implemented and geopolitical tensions ease, Belarus’s economy will likely stagnate, relying primarily on Russian financial and political support.
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Belarus' Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 75.3 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 79.5 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 75.3 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 8,250 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 8,250 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 8,666 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 0.7% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 0.7% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 6.5% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 47.8% of overall GDP, manufacturing 23.0%, other industrial activity 21.9%, and agriculture 7.3%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 54.7% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 18.1%, fixed investment 24.1%, and net exports 3.1%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 38.4% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 12.6%, food 16.6%, ores and metals 1.1% and agricultural raw materials 3.6%, with other categories accounting for 27.7% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 49.4% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 20.4%, food 10.3%, ores and metals 3.5% and agricultural raw materials 1.3%, with other goods accounting for 15.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 39.50 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 44.20 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 0.7% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Belarus, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Belarus's fiscal deficit averaged 0.7% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.6% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Belarus's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 9.2% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Belarus inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Belarus's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 9.50%, down from 20.00% a decade earlier. See our Belarus monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the ruble weakened by 63.6% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the ruble, click here.
Economic situation in Belarus
Our panelists see annual GDP growth cooling for the fourth straight quarter in Q2, a prediction backed by early data: In January–April, the economy expanded 2.8% (Q1: +3.1% yoy). Manufacturing—which forms a fifth of the economy—was muted, possibly due to weakness in Russian industry, which is closely linked to that of Belarus. In addition, agricultural output remained near-stagnant as frosts hit crop yields, and domestic trade decelerated from Q1 as real wages fell. More positively, construction activity continued to rise over 10%, despite losing slight steam from the first quarter. In a blow to agriculture and trade, the European Parliament recently approved progressive tariff hikes on Belarussian fertilizers and farm produce—which account for the lion’s share of its exports—effective from 1 July: Tariffs should rise from less than 10% currently to about 100% over the next three years.Belarus Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.46 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 13 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Belarus in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 46 economic indicators for Belarus from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Belarus economy. To download a sample report on the Belarus' economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.