Argentina Economic Outlook
February 12, 2019
The economy appears to have remained stuck in recession in the fourth quarter. This follows a second consecutive GDP contraction in the third quarter, which was triggered by plunging domestic demand on the back of sky-high inflation and interest rates, and a sharp fall of the peso. The decline in economic activity intensified in November, due to faster contractions in most economic sectors, and industrial production shrunk markedly throughout Q4. Turning to the first quarter of this year, January’s drop in consumer confidence points to protracted weakness in spending. At the same time, macroeconomic adjustments continue. The trade balance recorded a fourth consecutive surplus in December thanks to surging exports and plunging imports. Moreover, recently released data shows that the country outperformed its 2.7% primary-deficit-to-GDP ratio which had been outlined as a target by the IMF in 2018, while it also reduced its fiscal deficit from 6.0% of GDP in 2017 to 5.2% of GDP.Argentina Economic Growth
The economy should gradually begin to recover this year. A slow but steady moderation in both inflation and interest rates should support consumer spending and fixed investment, which will nevertheless suffer from still-tight financing conditions and higher taxes. Growing agricultural production will boost exports and limit the scope of the contraction. Political uncertainty ahead of October’s elections continue to cloud the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 1.0% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and expanding 2.5% in 2020.Argentina Economy Data
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Argentina Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.69 | 0.15 % | Dec 17 |
| Exchange Rate | 38.21 | 0.45 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 37,386 | 2.26 % | Feb 14 |
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Argentina Economic News
Argentina: Inflation jumps in January on a low-base effect
February 15, 2019
According to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC), national consumer prices rose 2.9% over the previous month in January, coming in above December’s 2.6% month-on-month increase.
Argentina: Contraction in industrial production sharpens in December
February 6, 2019
Industrial production plunged a multi-year low of 14.7% over the same month of last year in December, according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 5 February, marking a steeper fall than November’s 13.9% year-on-year decline. December’s result reflected contractions in all components of the index.
Argentina: Consumer sentiment declines at the beginning of the year
January 25, 2019
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index dropped to 33.1 points in January from 36.0 points in December—which had marked the best reading in four months.
Argentina: Economic activity contracts at sharpest pace in close to 10 years in November
January 25, 2019
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 7.5% in annual terms in November, a sharper drop than the revised 4.2% fall recorded in October (previously reported: -4.0% year-on-year).
Argentina: Trade surplus widens further in December on falling imports and surging exports
January 23, 2019
Exports leaped 15.4% in year-on-year terms in December, following November’s 14.6% increase.
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