Argentina Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020The economic situation remained dire in Q3, after GDP collapsed in Q2. While the pace of the decline in economic activity softened in July-August from Q2, it remained considerable. Similarly, consumer confidence remained downbeat in Q3, pointing to constrained household spending. Moreover, merchandise exports plunged, although this could be partly due to under-reporting associated with a distorted exchange rate market. Moving to Q4, increased consumer pessimism in October, coupled with a still-high number of new Covid-19 cases, which led to the extension of restrictions in some regions, bodes ill for the recovery. However, in a bid to support the tourism sector, the government announced it would resume international flights to allow tourists from neighboring countries to enter from November. On the debt front, IMF staff will return in mid-November to make progress on replacing a USD 57 billion loan deal struck in 2018.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe economy should rebound, albeit timidly, in 2021 after this year’s sharp contraction. That said, protracted macroeconomic imbalances, sky-high inflation, capital controls and potentially market-unfriendly policies will weigh on growth. The unpredictable course of the pandemic poses an additional downside risk to the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy growing 4.5% in 2021, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.6% in 2022.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||59.88||0.45 %||Dec 30|
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Argentina Economic News
February 23, 2021
Merchandise exports collapsed 34.1% in annual terms in December, following November’s 23.6% slump and marking the worst reading since September 2009.
February 23, 2021
Industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in December, following November’s 4.3% drop and marking the strongest increase since February 2018.
February 12, 2021
Consumer prices surged 4.00% over the previous month in January, matching the jump logged in December and marking the joint-fastest increase in over one year.
February 5, 2021
Industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in December, following November’s 4.3% drop and marking marked the strongest increase since February 2018.
January 29, 2021
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index decreased to 38.2 in January from 39.3 in December.