Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

The economy contracted again in the third quarter, weighed down by plummeting domestic demand amid soaring inflation and interest rates, and a significant depreciation of the peso. Recession likely carried over into the fourth quarter, as suggested by shrinking economic activity in October and plunging industrial production in October-November. In more positive news, November saw the third consecutive trade surplus, while inflationary pressures moderated notably in October-November. Meanwhile, on 19 December the IMF completed the second review of the standby agreement and disbursed an additional USD 7.6 billion. While recognizing that weaker inflation and the peso’s stabilization are encouraging signs, the Fund urged the government to keep cutting energy subsidies and to limit public wage increases in order to keep public finances in check.

Argentina Economic Growth

This year, the economy is expected to continue shrinking, although it will likely gradually exit recession. Strong inflationary pressures, rising taxes and tight financing conditions will likely hurt consumer spending and fixed investment. However, a strong rebound in agricultural output should help cushion the contraction. The uncertain result of October’s elections and a global slowdown are the main downside risks to the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.9% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and expanding 2.6% in 2020.

Argentina Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)42.242.743.143.644.1
GDP per capita (USD)14,54013,13315,11012,50714,609
GDP (USD bn)614560652554644
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.4-2.52.7-1.82.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.0-3.94.2-1.36.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.6-4.43.7-1.03.6
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-6.83.5-4.911.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.0-1.80.4-4.61.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)26.737.327.326.220.8
Unemployment Rate7.17.37.18.48.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.4-3.9-5.9-6.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.544.752.653.357.1
Money (annual variation in %)25.728.928.230.426.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)26.638.026.941.026.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)18.438.026.741.227.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)14.828.3-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)21.6320.3827.2519.8823.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)88.959.136.144.977.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.528.4612.9415.8618.60
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)32.6329.8352.8522.6017.30
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-1.6-2.6-2.7-4.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-13.0-8.9-16.8-15.0-30.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.53.2-3.02.1-8.5
Exports (USD billion)76.068.456.857.758.4
Imports (USD billion)74.465.259.855.666.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.0-9.9-17.01.71.2
Imports (annual variation in %)9.5-12.4-8.4-6.920.3
International Reserves (USD)30.631.425.638.855.1
External Debt (% of GDP)25.929.026.134.736.2

Sample Report

5 years of Argentina economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate37.520.45 %Jan 30
Stock Market36,0392.26 %Jan 30

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Argentina Economic News

Search form