Argentina Economic Outlook
January 15, 2019
The economy contracted again in the third quarter, weighed down by plummeting domestic demand amid soaring inflation and interest rates, and a significant depreciation of the peso. Recession likely carried over into the fourth quarter, as suggested by shrinking economic activity in October and plunging industrial production in October-November. In more positive news, November saw the third consecutive trade surplus, while inflationary pressures moderated notably in October-November. Meanwhile, on 19 December the IMF completed the second review of the standby agreement and disbursed an additional USD 7.6 billion. While recognizing that weaker inflation and the peso’s stabilization are encouraging signs, the Fund urged the government to keep cutting energy subsidies and to limit public wage increases in order to keep public finances in check.Argentina Economic Growth
This year, the economy is expected to continue shrinking, although it will likely gradually exit recession. Strong inflationary pressures, rising taxes and tight financing conditions will likely hurt consumer spending and fixed investment. However, a strong rebound in agricultural output should help cushion the contraction. The uncertain result of October’s elections and a global slowdown are the main downside risks to the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.9% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and expanding 2.6% in 2020.Argentina Economy Data
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Argentina Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.69 | 0.15 % | Dec 17 |
| Exchange Rate | 37.52 | 0.45 % | Jan 30 |
| Stock Market | 36,039 | 2.26 % | Jan 30 |
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Argentina Economic News
Argentina: Inflation continues to soar in March
April 17, 2019
National consumer prices jumped 4.7% over the previous month in March, coming in above February’s 3.8% month-on-month increase and marking the fastest increase since October 2018, according to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC). March’s reading marks the third consecutive month of acceleration in month-on-month price increases.
Argentina: Peso falls to new all-time low in early April
April 6, 2019
The Argentine peso depreciated in the last few weeks, despite the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy stance.
Argentina: Peso falls to new all-time low in late March
April 4, 2019
The Argentine peso depreciated in the last few weeks, despite the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy stance.
Argentina: Contraction in industrial production eases again in February
April 4, 2019
Industrial production shrank 8.5% over the same month of last year in February, according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 4 April.
Argentina: Central Bank introduces a floor on LELIQ rate to curb inflation
April 1, 2019
At its latest meeting held on 1 April, the Central Bank of Argentina (Banco Central de la República Argentina, BCRA) introduced a floor for the LELIQ rate during April, in order to intensify its fight against inflation.
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