Argentina Economic Outlook
October 11, 2021GDP growth accelerated on an annual basis in Q2, supported by a low base effect and an upbeat construction sector, although the economy shrank in sequential terms amid tougher restrictions. Turning to Q3, while annual growth likely slowed due to a fading base effect, activity should have rebounded sequentially amid a supportive external sector and somewhat less downbeat consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the country made a USD 1.9 billion payment to the IMF in September, in a bid to reach a new deal over its remaining debt. Moreover, in the same month the government presented the draft 2022 budget, which sees the fiscal deficit at 3.3% of GDP and economic growth at 4.0%. In politics, following a defeat for Alberto Fernández’s leftist party in September’s mid-term congressional primaries, the president reshuffled his cabinet and announced new stimulus measures, starting with an immediate minimum wage hike.
Argentina Economic GrowthGDP will rebound this year, partly thanks to a low base effect, while the pace of growth will slow significantly in 2022 as weak macro fundamentals, capital controls and a lack of investor confidence weigh on the economy. Pandemic-related uncertainty, ongoing debt renegotiations and the outcome of November’s elections are key factors to watch. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy growing 7.3% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
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Argentina Economic News
October 8, 2021
Industrial output rose 13.8% in year-on-year terms in August, which was a stronger expansion than July's 12.5%.
October 6, 2021
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index rose to 40.5 in September from 39.8 in August, marking the best reading since November 2020.
September 29, 2021
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) grew 11.7% year-on-year in July (June: +11.7% yoy).
September 29, 2021
Merchandise exports soared 63.3% over the same month last year in August, following July’s 47.1% upturn.
September 24, 2021
GDP growth gathered significant momentum in the second quarter, accelerating to 17.9% year-on-year from 2.9% in the first quarter, benefiting from a favorable base effect. The upturn mainly reflected a marked improvement in domestic demand.