Argentina Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020The economic situation remained dire in Q3, after GDP collapsed in Q2. While the pace of the decline in economic activity softened in July-August from Q2, it remained considerable. Similarly, consumer confidence remained downbeat in Q3, pointing to constrained household spending. Moreover, merchandise exports plunged, although this could be partly due to under-reporting associated with a distorted exchange rate market. Moving to Q4, increased consumer pessimism in October, coupled with a still-high number of new Covid-19 cases, which led to the extension of restrictions in some regions, bodes ill for the recovery. However, in a bid to support the tourism sector, the government announced it would resume international flights to allow tourists from neighboring countries to enter from November. On the debt front, IMF staff will return in mid-November to make progress on replacing a USD 57 billion loan deal struck in 2018.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe economy should rebound, albeit timidly, in 2021 after this year’s sharp contraction. That said, protracted macroeconomic imbalances, sky-high inflation, capital controls and potentially market-unfriendly policies will weigh on growth. The unpredictable course of the pandemic poses an additional downside risk to the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy growing 4.5% in 2021, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.6% in 2022.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||59.88||0.45 %||Dec 30|
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Argentina Economic News
July 22, 2021
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) expanded 13.6% year-on-year in May (April: +29.4% yoy).
July 22, 2021
Merchandise exports soared 45.8% in annual terms in June, following May’s softer 34.2% jump.
July 21, 2021
Consumer prices rose 3.2% over the previous month in June, following the 3.3% increase logged in May.
July 12, 2021
Industrial output jumped 30.2% year-on-year in May, following April’s 55.6% surge.
July 7, 2021
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index dropped to 34.6 in June from 35.4 in May, marking the worst reading since April 2019.