Argentina Economic Outlook
August 6, 2019
The economy seems to have markedly improved in the second quarter, after diving domestic demand caused GDP to contract in the first quarter. The economy expanded for the first time in over one year in May, propped up by a vigorous agricultural sector. Additionally, consumer confidence picked up in Q2, while the trade balance remained in surplus throughout the quarter. In further positive news, on 12 July, the IMF approved a fourth review of the standby credit deal, praising the country’s overcompliance with the deal’s criteria and authorizing the disbursement of a further USD 5.4 billion. Moreover, the government asked the IMF for tougher fiscal goals, to make its commitment to public-debt reduction more credible; in early July, Moody’s had changed its outlook from stable to negative, due to risks of a reversal in fiscal consolidation.Argentina Economic Growth
The economy is expected to remain in recession this year as elevated inflation, high borrowing costs and reduced public investment weigh on domestic demand. That said, strong agricultural production should support the external sector, while improving fiscal metrics bodes well for investor sentiment. Political uncertainty ahead of October’s elections clouds the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 1.5% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before expanding 2.1% in 2020.Argentina Economy Data
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Argentina Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.69 | 0.15 % | Dec 17 |
| Exchange Rate | 43.88 | 0.45 % | Jul 31 |
| Stock Market | 42,058 | 2.26 % | Jul 31 |
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Argentina Economic News
Argentina: Inflation slows for the second consecutive month in July
August 15, 2019
National consumer prices rose 2.2% over the previous month in July, coming in below June’s 2.7% month-on-month increase and marking the lowest reading in 14 months, according to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
Argentina: Consumer confidence jumps to 18-month high in July, but remains entrenched in pessimistic terrain
July 26, 2019
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index surged to 44.2 points in July from 40.6 points in June, marking the best result since January 2018.
Argentina: Economic activity expands for the first time in over a year, dazzling markets
July 25, 2019
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) increased 2.6% in annual terms in May, contrasting the 1.3% fall recorded in April.
Argentina: Plunging imports keep trade balance in surplus
July 25, 2019
Exports increased 1.9% in year-on-year terms in June, following May’s 16.5% jump.
Argentina: Central Bank introduces a temporary tweak to monetary-base target and extends lower floor for LELIQ rate
July 22, 2019
At its latest meeting held on 22 July, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) stated it will temporarily adopt a two-month-average compliance assessment for the monetary base objective, rather than a monthly one, to adapt the monetary policy framework to the volatility of money demand.
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