Argentina Economic Outlook
May 19, 2020The coronavirus pandemic has hit the country in difficult times. Economic activity shriveled in the first two months of this year after plummeting domestic demand crippled the economy in 2019. Since then, Covid-19 fallout and the lockdown caused industrial activity and exports to plunge in March, while consumer confidence fell deeper into pessimistic territory in March-April. Meanwhile, the debt renegotiation saga continues: After three major creditor groups rejected the initial proposal to restructure over USD 65 billion debt, the government extended negotiations until 22 May, the same day a grace period expires for a USD 503 million debt repayment the government suspended in April. Given the need for the government to meet a minimum participation threshold necessary for a comprehensive restructuring, the outlook for striking a deal looks grim.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe Covid-19 crisis will wreak havoc on Argentina’s already ailing economy, lambasting domestic and external demand. The pandemic will also exacerbate the country’s troubled fiscal position, with an increased use of deficit monetary financing on the cards. If the government defaults on its debts, financial turmoil will likely ensue and external financing sources will dry up. LatinFocus Consensus sees the economy contracting 6.9% in 2020, which is down 1.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding 3.5% in 2021.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||59.88||0.45 %||Dec 30|
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Argentina Economic News
June 29, 2020
Economic activity decreased 26.4% year-on-year in April (March: -11.5% yoy).
June 26, 2020
Exports tumbled 16.3% in year-on-year terms in May, following April’s sharper 18.9% dive.
June 24, 2020
Economic activity in the first quarter slumped 5.4% year-on-year, following Q4’s softer 1.1% drop, according to the Statistical Institute (INDEC).
June 12, 2020
Consumer prices rose 1.5% from the previous month in May, matching April’s increase.
Argentina: Consumer confidence falls deeper into pessimistic terrain in May amid containment measures
June 10, 2020
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index fell to a one-year low of 38.4 in May from 39.3 in April amid containment measures.