Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

September 15, 2020

The economy likely took a severe hit in Q2, and available indicators suggest the economic situation remains challenging, although it is gradually stabilizing in Q3. Activity plunged throughout Q2, constrained by severe lockdown measures, while data on consumer confidence and industrial production points to a softer pace of contraction in Q3. Meanwhile, the government recently secured near-unanimous backing for its debt restructuring proposal, avoiding its ninth sovereign default. Consequently, S&P Global Ratings improved the country’s rating to ‘CCC+’ and Fitch Ratings to ‘CCC’, out of selective default. Moreover, on 26 August the government notified the IMF of its request for a new arrangement on the USD 44 billion already disbursed by the Fund. On the health front, lockdown measures have been gradually relaxed, although some restrictions will remain in place until at least 20 September.

Argentina Economic Growth

The coronavirus pandemic will wreak havoc on the already-ailing economy, causing GDP to shrink sharply this year amid severe lockdown measures. Moreover, the evolution of the health crisis in the region adds a downside risk to the outlook, although the recent debt restructuring agreement reduces the short-term risk of financial turmoil. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy contracting 11.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before expanding 5.3% in 2021.

Argentina Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)43.143.644.144.645.1
GDP per capita (USD)15,11012,77814,72712,1239,679
GDP (USD bn)652557649540436
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.7-2.12.7-2.5-2.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-1.66.0-3.4-8.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.7-0.84.0-2.4-6.4
Investment (annual variation in %)3.5-5.812.2-5.7-15.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.1-4.52.5-5.0-6.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.326.020.828.545.4
Unemployment Rate7.18.48.49.29.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-5.8-5.9-5.0-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)52.653.156.686.089.4
Money (annual variation in %)28.230.426.022.830.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)26.941.024.847.653.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.741.227.7-  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.0-  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)27.2519.8823.2549.5040.31
Stock Market (annual variation in %)36.144.977.70.837.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12.9415.8618.6037.6659.88
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9.2714.7716.5628.0848.22
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-4.8-5.0-0.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-17.6-15.1-31.2-27.3-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.42.1-8.3-3.716.0
Exports (USD billion)56.857.958.661.865.1
Imports (USD billion)60.255.966.965.549.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.02.01.35.35.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.4-7.219.8-2.2-25.0
International Reserves (USD)25.639.355.165.844.8
External Debt (% of GDP)25.732.636.151.463.7

Sample Report

5 years of Argentina economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Argentina Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate59.880.45 %Dec 30

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Argentina Economic News

Search form