Argentina Economic Outlook
September 15, 2020The economy likely took a severe hit in Q2, and available indicators suggest the economic situation remains challenging, although it is gradually stabilizing in Q3. Activity plunged throughout Q2, constrained by severe lockdown measures, while data on consumer confidence and industrial production points to a softer pace of contraction in Q3. Meanwhile, the government recently secured near-unanimous backing for its debt restructuring proposal, avoiding its ninth sovereign default. Consequently, S&P Global Ratings improved the country’s rating to ‘CCC+’ and Fitch Ratings to ‘CCC’, out of selective default. Moreover, on 26 August the government notified the IMF of its request for a new arrangement on the USD 44 billion already disbursed by the Fund. On the health front, lockdown measures have been gradually relaxed, although some restrictions will remain in place until at least 20 September.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe coronavirus pandemic will wreak havoc on the already-ailing economy, causing GDP to shrink sharply this year amid severe lockdown measures. Moreover, the evolution of the health crisis in the region adds a downside risk to the outlook, although the recent debt restructuring agreement reduces the short-term risk of financial turmoil. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy contracting 11.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before expanding 5.3% in 2021.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||59.88||0.45 %||Dec 30|
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Argentina Economic News
September 13, 2020
Consumer prices increased 2.70% over the last month in August, above the 1.93% increase logged in July.
September 9, 2020
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index increased from 38.2 in July to 41.3 in August, the highest reading since February.
September 4, 2020
Industrial output decreased 6.9% year-on-year in July (June: -6.3% yoy).
August 25, 2020
Merchandise exports plummeted 16.3% in annual terms in July, following June’s 8.6% fall.
August 20, 2020
On an annual basis, economic activity fell at a slower pace of 12.3% in June (May: -20.5% yoy).