Argentina Economic Outlook
January 18, 2022The economy rebounded in sequential terms in Q3 last year, supported by the easing of restrictions, but annual growth eased on a fading base effect. Underlying momentum should have softened in Q4. Activity dropped month-on-month in October, while stubbornly high inflation in October–December and declining consumer sentiment in the quarter likely restrained consumer spending. Meanwhile, clouds are gathering over the economy in the first stretch of the new year: Covid-19 cases have soared to record numbers amid the spread of the Omicron variant, while the government authorized an increase in prices for electricity and natural gas in a bid to reduce the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the sovereign bond market is seeing some turbulence as the country struggles to reach an agreement with the IMF for the repayment of its USD 45 billion debt, due to differences over the path to reducing the deficit.
Argentina Economic GrowthGDP should expand at a notably slower pace this year as the favorable base effects wanes. On top of this, downbeat consumer and investor confidence amid protracted macro imbalances will restrain growth. Moreover, policy and pandemic-related uncertainty pose downside risks, as does the uncertain outcome of debt renegotiation talks. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy growing 2.3% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.2% in 2023.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||59.88||0.45 %||Dec 30|
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Argentina Economic News
January 26, 2022
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) grew 9.3% year-on-year in November (October: +6.7% yoy).
January 21, 2022
Merchandise exports jumped 85.9% over the same month last year in December, following November’s 37.6% increase.
January 14, 2022
Consumer prices rose 3.84% from the previous month in December, coming in above the 2.53% rise recorded in November.
January 7, 2022
Industrial production expanded 10.1% year-on-year in November (October: +4.4% yoy).
January 3, 2022
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index dropped to 37.8 in December from 39.7 in November, marking the weakest reading in five months.