Argentina Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020The economic situation remained dire in Q3, after GDP collapsed in Q2. While the pace of the decline in economic activity softened in July-August from Q2, it remained considerable. Similarly, consumer confidence remained downbeat in Q3, pointing to constrained household spending. Moreover, merchandise exports plunged, although this could be partly due to under-reporting associated with a distorted exchange rate market. Moving to Q4, increased consumer pessimism in October, coupled with a still-high number of new Covid-19 cases, which led to the extension of restrictions in some regions, bodes ill for the recovery. However, in a bid to support the tourism sector, the government announced it would resume international flights to allow tourists from neighboring countries to enter from November. On the debt front, IMF staff will return in mid-November to make progress on replacing a USD 57 billion loan deal struck in 2018.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe economy should rebound, albeit timidly, in 2021 after this year’s sharp contraction. That said, protracted macroeconomic imbalances, sky-high inflation, capital controls and potentially market-unfriendly policies will weigh on growth. The unpredictable course of the pandemic poses an additional downside risk to the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy growing 4.5% in 2021, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.6% in 2022.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||59.88||0.45 %||Dec 30|
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Argentina Economic News
November 25, 2020
On an annual basis, economic activity fell at a softer pace of 6.9% in September (August: -11.8% yoy).
November 25, 2020
Merchandise exports tumbled 21.6% in annual terms in October, following September’s 18.0% slump.
November 16, 2020
Consumer prices soared 3.76% over the last month in October, above the 2.84% increase logged in September and the marking third consecutive month of acceleration.
November 6, 2020
Industrial output rose 3.4% year-on-year in September (August: -7.0% yoy), marking the strongest increase since April 2018.
October 23, 2020
Merchandise exports tumbled 18.0% in annual terms in September, following August’s 11.3% slump.