Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

April 17, 2018

GDP growth in annual terms accelerated to a multi-year high in Q4 2017. The expansion came in above market estimates and underscores a domestic economy that is showing signs of recovery, with declining unemployment and robust industrial production. More recent data is positive, suggesting the growth momentum carried over into the first quarter of this year. Economic activity accelerated markedly in January, and industrial output surged in February. However, this positive data contrasts with figures from the external and monetary sectors. The trade balance recorded its fourteenth consecutive month of deficit in February, and a devastating drought in parts of the country throughout Argentina’s summer months will hit export-oriented industries. Inflation in Q1 furthermore remained untamed, implying that the external debt burden will continue to grow in the coming months to keep up with elevated public spending.

Argentina Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a solid pace this year and next thanks to a sharp expansion in fixed investment and still-strong private consumption. However, a weaker currency and high inflation will weigh on private consumption growth. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 2.6% in 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 3.2%.

Argentina Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)41.742.2-  -  -  
Population (million)41.742.2-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)13,88514,540-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)13,88514,540-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)579614-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)579614-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.02.4-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.02.4-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.34.0-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.34.0-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.13.6-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.13.6-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.12.3-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.12.3-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-7.80.0-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-7.80.0-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)26.326.7-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)26.326.7-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.27.1-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.27.1-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.9-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.9-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.133.0-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.133.0-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)38.425.7-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)38.425.7-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.826.6-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.826.6-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.018.4-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.018.4-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)13.114.8-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)13.114.8-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.4217.75-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.4217.75-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)15.988.9-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)15.988.9-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.926.52-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.926.52-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.555.48-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.555.48-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-2.1-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-2.1-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.3-13.0-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.3-13.0-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.01.5-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.01.5-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)80.076.0-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)80.076.0-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)68.074.4-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)68.074.4-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.6-5.0-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.6-5.0-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.19.5-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.19.5-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)43.330.6-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)28.025.9-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)28.025.9-  -  -  

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Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate20.180.45 %Apr 17
Stock Market31,4032.26 %Apr 17

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