Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Prices jump in January and February on strong demand and supply concerns

Prices for a wide range of agricultural commodities soared in February amid news that global supply could be disrupted in the coming months, due to severe cold weather in Europe and dry conditions in Argentina, the United States and West Africa. Moreover, demand for agricultural products remains strong particularly for industrial usages, food supplies and animal feed. That said, the rally will be limited by profit-taking pressures, as investors would likely take advantage of the recent surge in agriculture prices.

Agriculture prices rose 5.1% on a month-on-month basis in February (January: +1.5% mom). Five out of the nine agriculture commodities tracked by FocusEconomics recorded price gains in February, with the largest increases in the prices of cocoa, wheat and corn, in that order. Conversely, prices for coffee and cotton declined in the month. Sugar prices posted the third monthly drop amid surging global supply. That said, mills assigning more cane sugar to ethanol production could provide some support to prices.

Concerns about supply and healthy demand for agriculture products are expected to boost prices going forward. Our panel of analysts forecast a 14.4% annual increase in Q4 2018. Agriculture prices are seen expanding a solid 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1088.33  1071.7  1047.33  1198.43  1293.69  

Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

Sample Report

Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities


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