Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Coffee and sugar boost agricultural prices in October

Agricultural prices posted the first month-on-month increase in five months mostly due to a sharp rise in prices for coffee and sugar. Agricultural prices rose 2.3% month-on-month in October, contrasting September’s 5.3% decrease.

Sugar and coffee prices rallied in October in the wake of a strengthening Brazilian real following Jair Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected victory in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on 7 October. Lower crop estimates for corn and soybeans shored up prices for both commodities, while wheat prices were supported by weaker production in Australia and Russia. On the flip side, wool prices were negatively affected by seasonal factors. Cocoa and cotton prices also declined in October.

Agricultural prices are expected to recover in 2018 following a subdued performance in the previous five years. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect agriculture prices to increase 6.4% year-on-year in Q4 2018 (previous edition: +7.3% yoy) mostly due to strong demand and tight supply for key commodities. Looking forward, however, gains in agriculture prices are expected to moderate. FocusEconomics panelists see prices rising 4.2% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1088.33  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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