Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Prices decline for third consecutive month in August on ample supply

Agricultural prices declined for the third month in a row in August, amid strong supply for key commodities. Agricultural prices fell 0.5% month-on-month in August, but notably less than July’s 4.3% decrease.

Cocoa prices posted the sharpest drop on the back of healthy yields predicted in Western Africa. Strong production and subdued demand sent sugar prices down again in August, while coffee prices were negatively affected by expected strong production in Brazil. On the flip side, lower production in Europe, Russia and Ukraine pushed up wheat prices. Soybean prices also rose in the first half of August due to stronger demand from Europe and speculation that talks in late August between China and the United could ease trade tensions. However, soybean prices declined in recent weeks as Chinese tariffs on the commodity start to take effect.

A base effect from last year and solid market fundamentals will lead agricultural prices to rise at a double-digit pace of 12.2% in Q4 2018 (previous edition: +15.9% yoy). Gains in agriculture prices, however, will moderate and FocusEconomics panelists see them expanding 0.5% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1088.33  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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