Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Ample supply sends agricultural prices down in February

Agricultural prices declined for the first time in five months in February, decreasing a mild 0.1% month-on-month following January’s 1.0% rise.

Lower prices for coffee, cotton and wheat led February’s broader drop in agricultural prices. Coffee prices have been hit by improved harvest prospects in Brazil, while wheat prices have been weighed on by ample supply in the United States. Meanwhile, high inventories and fierce competition from synthetic fibers have undermined cotton prices. Conversely, solid demand from China and Europe continued to propel wool prices, while news that global sugar markets could swing to deficit have supported sugar prices.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect agricultural prices to rise 6.2% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (previous edition: +5.8% yoy) on solid demand for food, feed and biofuel. The rally in agricultural prices is expected to continue next year, with FocusEconomics panelists projecting a 3.0% increase in Q4 2020 in annual terms.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Corn698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  
Soybeans1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  
Wheat749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  
Cocoa2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  
Coffee175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  
Cotton74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  
Sugar21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  
Wool1088.33  1071.7  1047.33  1198.43  1293.69  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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