Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Agricultural prices broadly flat in May 

June 11, 2019

Although agricultural prices decreased for the fourth consecutive month in May, they receded only 0.2% month-on-month. The print was above April’s 0.5% decline.

Most agricultural commodity prices lost ground in May led by cotton and soybeans. The decrease mostly reflected ample supply as well as demand concerns as global growth appears to decelerate. Conversely, coffee prices recovered strongly in May after hitting a 15-year low in April as the commodity benefited from an appreciating Brazilian real and weather concerns in the South American country.

Strong demand for food, feed and biofuels will continue to support demand for agricultural products, with FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expecting agricultural prices to rise 4.0% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (previously reported: +4.8% year-on-year). Our panelists expect the rally to continue in the following year and see prices 4.3% higher in Q4 2020 in annual terms.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Corn598.06  397.77  361.72  343.92  334.76  
Soybeans1419.78  1250.72  936.31  968.21  944.71  
Wheat699.94  578.22  481.76  431.09  435.91  
Cocoa2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  2893.27  2029.25  
Coffee122.21  171.43  132.27  137.88  131.9  
Cotton79.63  73.38  61.47  64.13  70.8  
Sugar17.69  16.99  13.43  18.08  15.99  
Wool1071.7  1047.33  1198.43  1293.69  1538.78  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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