Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

August 24, 2021

Available indicators for the second quarter paint a mixed picture. Economic activity averaged higher in April–May compared to the previous quarter—with April registering the highest growth rate on record. Moreover, demand dynamics gained traction in May: Both merchandise imports and exports improved at a quicker pace compared to the previous month. On the other hand, both consumer and business confidence slipped to multi-month lows in May. Additionally, the private sector PMI averaged slightly lower in April–June than in Q1 before falling to the lowest reading in a year in July, pointing to an ongoing deterioration in business conditions at the outset of Q3. Meanwhile, the country is currently scrambling to administer vaccines as it battles a third wave of Covid-19 cases and an overwhelmed health system, boding ill for activity going forward.

Ghana Economic Growth

Strengthening private and capital spending should bolster economic growth in 2021, following last year’s contraction. Moreover, the gradual easing of restrictions abroad bodes well for the external sector, which should contribute to overall growth. Nevertheless, increased pandemic-related uncertainty amid a rise in cases of the Delta variant clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.5% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in 2022.

Ghana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)27.728.328.929.630.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,7211,9262,0142,1732,164
GDP (USD bn)47.754.658.364.265.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.48.16.36.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.10.20.18.54.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.712.21.013.2-10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.14.315.710.66.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-6.9-5.0-3.8-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.157.357.259.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)26.624.619.815.716.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)17.715.411.89.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)17.217.512.49.88.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)26.0025.5020.0017.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.814.304.544.835.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.783.944.404.685.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.2-3.4-3.2-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.0-1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-1.81.21.82.3
Exports (USD billion)10.311.113.814.915.7
Imports (USD billion)13.612.912.613.113.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-21.67.924.28.04.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.5-4.7-2.03.81.5
International Reserves (USD)5.65.86.96.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)42.238.838.436.3-  

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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