Fiscal Balance in USA
USA - Fiscal Balance
Congress approves fiscal package, lifting forecasts for 2011
On 16 December, Congress approved a USD 858 billion tax bill that extends all Bush-era tax cuts for two more years, cuts payroll taxes for one year and prolongs long-term unemployment insurance for 13 months. The package also includes the maintenance of the ceiling for taxes on capital gains and dividends at 15% (contrasting the Democrats' intention to raise it to 20%), among other measures. Market analysts reacted positively to the news and quickly revised their forecasts for the 2011-12 period. The approval of the new fiscal package is likely to boost economic activity in the next two years, with Consensus Forecast panellists raising their 2011 GDP growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points from last month to 2.8%. For 2012, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.1%. However, the costs of further supporting the recovery will impose a larger burden on the Obama administration. The U.S. budget deficit is expected to narrow from 10.0% of GDP in 2009 to only 8.5% of GDP in 2011, against last month's Consensus Forecast of 8.1%. That said, the additional threat on the sustainability of the country's public debt is likely to prompt investors to demand higher yields to hold public debt, with the Consensus Forecast for 2011 year-end yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising from 3.35% expected last month to 3.53% this month.
United States - Fiscal Balance Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -3.4 |
United States Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.64 | -0.43 % | Mar 11 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 25,651 | 0.02 % | Mar 11 |
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Economic News
United States: Inflation cools again in February
March 12, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.2% over the prior month in February, accelerating from the flat print recorded in January and matching market expectations.
United States: Retail sales rebound marginally in January
March 11, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis in January, recovering marginally from December’s downwardly revised 1.6% sharp plunge (previously reported: -1.2% month-on-month), and mildly beating market expectations of a flat print.
United States: Weak February jobs report nonetheless sees wage pressures rising; confirms strong January reading
March 8, 2019
The February jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows payrolls barely budged in the month after a strong start of the year, adding to concerns about an economic slowdown.
United States: ISM manufacturing index dips to over two-year low in February on softer output and domestic demand
March 1, 2019
The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to seesaw in the first months of 2019, losing ground in February after sharply recovering in the previous month from a year-end slump.
United States: Economy seen slowing less than expected in Q4
February 28, 2019
According to an initial estimate of fourth quarter GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the economy continued to soften at the end of 2018, but nevertheless performed better than expected on a robust outturn of business spending.
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