Fiscal Balance in USA
USA - Fiscal Balance
Congress approves fiscal package, lifting forecasts for 2011
On 16 December, Congress approved a USD 858 billion tax bill that extends all Bush-era tax cuts for two more years, cuts payroll taxes for one year and prolongs long-term unemployment insurance for 13 months. The package also includes the maintenance of the ceiling for taxes on capital gains and dividends at 15% (contrasting the Democrats' intention to raise it to 20%), among other measures. Market analysts reacted positively to the news and quickly revised their forecasts for the 2011-12 period. The approval of the new fiscal package is likely to boost economic activity in the next two years, with Consensus Forecast panellists raising their 2011 GDP growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points from last month to 2.8%. For 2012, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.1%. However, the costs of further supporting the recovery will impose a larger burden on the Obama administration. The U.S. budget deficit is expected to narrow from 10.0% of GDP in 2009 to only 8.5% of GDP in 2011, against last month's Consensus Forecast of 8.1%. That said, the additional threat on the sustainability of the country's public debt is likely to prompt investors to demand higher yields to hold public debt, with the Consensus Forecast for 2011 year-end yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising from 3.35% expected last month to 3.53% this month.
United States - Fiscal Balance Data
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-||-||-||-||-|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United States Facts
|Bond Yield||2.13||-0.43 %||Jul 11|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||27,088||0.02 %||Jul 11|
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United States: Strong retail sales growth in June rounds out solid second quarter for consumer spending
July 16, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 0.4% over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, matching May’s revised 0.4% increase (previously reported: +0.5% month-on-month).
United States: Headline inflation weakens in June; Federal Reserve rate cut appears increasingly imminent
July 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month in June, increasing by the same margin as in May.
United States: Strong payroll gains in June assuage investors’ fear and decrease odds of a July Fed rate cut
July 5, 2019
The June jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed a sharp rebound in payroll growth following a meek reading in May, suggesting that economic momentum—while waning—remains quite resilient for now, and somewhat reducing the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting on 30–31 July.
July 1, 2019
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell from 52.1 in May to 51.7 in June, the lowest reading since November 2016.
United States: Consumer confidence falls to near two-year low in June on pessimistic shift in expectations
June 25, 2019
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index sharply fell from a revised 131.3 in May (previously reported: 134.1) to 121.5 in June, wildly missing market expectations of 132.0.