Fiscal Balance in USA
USA - Fiscal Balance
Congress approves fiscal package, lifting forecasts for 2011
On 16 December, Congress approved a USD 858 billion tax bill that extends all Bush-era tax cuts for two more years, cuts payroll taxes for one year and prolongs long-term unemployment insurance for 13 months. The package also includes the maintenance of the ceiling for taxes on capital gains and dividends at 15% (contrasting the Democrats' intention to raise it to 20%), among other measures. Market analysts reacted positively to the news and quickly revised their forecasts for the 2011-12 period. The approval of the new fiscal package is likely to boost economic activity in the next two years, with Consensus Forecast panellists raising their 2011 GDP growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points from last month to 2.8%. For 2012, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.1%. However, the costs of further supporting the recovery will impose a larger burden on the Obama administration. The U.S. budget deficit is expected to narrow from 10.0% of GDP in 2009 to only 8.5% of GDP in 2011, against last month's Consensus Forecast of 8.1%. That said, the additional threat on the sustainability of the country's public debt is likely to prompt investors to demand higher yields to hold public debt, with the Consensus Forecast for 2011 year-end yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising from 3.35% expected last month to 3.53% this month.
United States - Fiscal Balance Data
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.8 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -3.4 | -3.8 |
United States Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.92 | -0.43 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Economic News
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United States: Retail sales growth edges up in January
February 14, 2020
Nominal retail sales increased 0.3% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, up from December’s revised 0.2% rise (previously reported: +0.3% month-on-month) and matching market expectations.
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United States: Inflation edges higher at outset of the year
February 13, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.1% over the prior month in January, softer than the 0.2% rise in December and missing market expectations of another 0.2% increase.
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United States: Payrolls grow at solid pace at outset of year
February 7, 2020
Non-farm payrolls increased by 225,000 in January, outpacing market expectations of 160,000 new jobs and up from December’s upwardly revised 147,000 gains (previously reported: 145,000).
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United States: ISM manufacturing index returns to expansionary territory for first time in 6 months in January
February 3, 2020
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 50.9 in January from 47.8 in December, beating market expectations of 48.5 and marking the best performance since last July.
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United States: Economic growth stabilizes in the fourth quarter
January 30, 2020
Economic growth was stable in the fourth quarter from the third, with GDP growth again clocking in at 2.1% in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), according to an advance GDP estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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