Fiscal Balance in USA
USA - Fiscal Balance
Congress approves fiscal package, lifting forecasts for 2011
On 16 December, Congress approved a USD 858 billion tax bill that extends all Bush-era tax cuts for two more years, cuts payroll taxes for one year and prolongs long-term unemployment insurance for 13 months. The package also includes the maintenance of the ceiling for taxes on capital gains and dividends at 15% (contrasting the Democrats' intention to raise it to 20%), among other measures. Market analysts reacted positively to the news and quickly revised their forecasts for the 2011-12 period. The approval of the new fiscal package is likely to boost economic activity in the next two years, with Consensus Forecast panellists raising their 2011 GDP growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points from last month to 2.8%. For 2012, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.1%. However, the costs of further supporting the recovery will impose a larger burden on the Obama administration. The U.S. budget deficit is expected to narrow from 10.0% of GDP in 2009 to only 8.5% of GDP in 2011, against last month's Consensus Forecast of 8.1%. That said, the additional threat on the sustainability of the country's public debt is likely to prompt investors to demand higher yields to hold public debt, with the Consensus Forecast for 2011 year-end yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising from 3.35% expected last month to 3.53% this month.
United States - Fiscal Balance Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -3.4 |
United States Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.79 | -0.43 % | Jan 18 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.14 | 0.65 % | Jan 21 |
| Stock Market | 24,706 | 0.02 % | Jan 21 |
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Economic News
United States: Inflation falls in December on energy price tumble
January 11, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.1% from the previous month in December, down from November’s flat reading and matching analysts’ expectations.
United States: Payrolls make strong gains in December jobs report; unemployment rises due to higher participation rate
January 4, 2019
The December jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows payroll gains soared in the month, delivering a strong finish to an already robust performance from the labor market in 2018.
United States: ISM manufacturing index logs steepest month-on-month decline since the last recession in December
January 3, 2019
The U.S. manufacturing sector tumbled sharply in December after logging a robust performance in November.
United States: Consumer confidence tumbles in December as concerns mount regarding the outlook
December 27, 2018
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index fell from a revised 136.4 in November (previously reported: 135.7) to 128.1 in December, badly missing market expectations of 134.0.
United States: Federal Reserve makes dovish hike in pivotal December meeting; lowers 2019 projections for growth and interest rates
December 19, 2018
At its 18–19 December monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 2.25%–2.50%.
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