Fiscal Balance in USA
USA - Fiscal Balance
Congress approves fiscal package, lifting forecasts for 2011
On 16 December, Congress approved a USD 858 billion tax bill that extends all Bush-era tax cuts for two more years, cuts payroll taxes for one year and prolongs long-term unemployment insurance for 13 months. The package also includes the maintenance of the ceiling for taxes on capital gains and dividends at 15% (contrasting the Democrats' intention to raise it to 20%), among other measures. Market analysts reacted positively to the news and quickly revised their forecasts for the 2011-12 period. The approval of the new fiscal package is likely to boost economic activity in the next two years, with Consensus Forecast panellists raising their 2011 GDP growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points from last month to 2.8%. For 2012, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.1%. However, the costs of further supporting the recovery will impose a larger burden on the Obama administration. The U.S. budget deficit is expected to narrow from 10.0% of GDP in 2009 to only 8.5% of GDP in 2011, against last month's Consensus Forecast of 8.1%. That said, the additional threat on the sustainability of the country's public debt is likely to prompt investors to demand higher yields to hold public debt, with the Consensus Forecast for 2011 year-end yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising from 3.35% expected last month to 3.53% this month.
United States - Fiscal Balance Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -3.4 |
United States Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 3.07 | -0.43 % | Sep 20 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.18 | 0.65 % | Sep 20 |
| Stock Market | 26,657 | 0.02 % | Sep 20 |
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Economic News
United States: Retail sales soften in August
September 14, 2018
Retail sales expanded 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis in August, slowing from July’s upwardly revised 0.7% growth (previously reported: +0.5% month-on-month).
United States: Inflation cools in August from July’s six-and-a-half year high
September 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.2% from the previous month in August, matching the print recorded in July and slightly under market expectations of a 0.3% increase.
United States: Strong payroll gains buttress hourly earnings in August, paving the way for Fed rate hike in September
September 7, 2018
The August employment report showed the U.S. economy continuing to operate at full speed, once again recording strong payroll gains which are poised to support consumption dynamics going forward.
United States: ISM manufacturing index surges to 14-year high in August on a strong pickup in output and new orders
September 4, 2018
The U.S. manufacturing sector again registered an unexpectedly strong month in August, remaining on a well above-average growth path.
United States: Second GDP release confirms buoyant economic activity in Q2
August 29, 2018
A second GDP estimate confirmed the economy grew at the fastest pace in almost four years in the second quarter, buttressed by robust private outlays and a strong showing from the external sector, which benefited from the front-loading of export activity ahead of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. at the beginning of Q3.
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