Fiscal Balance in USA
USA - Fiscal Balance
Congress approves fiscal package, lifting forecasts for 2011
On 16 December, Congress approved a USD 858 billion tax bill that extends all Bush-era tax cuts for two more years, cuts payroll taxes for one year and prolongs long-term unemployment insurance for 13 months. The package also includes the maintenance of the ceiling for taxes on capital gains and dividends at 15% (contrasting the Democrats' intention to raise it to 20%), among other measures. Market analysts reacted positively to the news and quickly revised their forecasts for the 2011-12 period. The approval of the new fiscal package is likely to boost economic activity in the next two years, with Consensus Forecast panellists raising their 2011 GDP growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points from last month to 2.8%. For 2012, the panel sees growth accelerating to 3.1%. However, the costs of further supporting the recovery will impose a larger burden on the Obama administration. The U.S. budget deficit is expected to narrow from 10.0% of GDP in 2009 to only 8.5% of GDP in 2011, against last month's Consensus Forecast of 8.1%. That said, the additional threat on the sustainability of the country's public debt is likely to prompt investors to demand higher yields to hold public debt, with the Consensus Forecast for 2011 year-end yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising from 3.35% expected last month to 3.53% this month.
United States - Fiscal Balance Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -3.4 |
United States Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.40 | -0.43 % | May 13 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | May 13 |
| Stock Market | 25,325 | 0.02 % | May 13 |
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Economic News
United States: Retail sales unexpectedly dip in April; core purchases are flat
May 15, 2019
Nominal retail sales fell 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis in April, markedly contrasting March’s revised 1.7% rise (previously reported: +1.6% month-on-month) and missing market expectations of 0.2% growth.
United States: Inflation edges up on strong shelter and service price gains in April; core pressures remain moderate
May 10, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.3% over the prior month in April, down from March’s reading and market expectations, both at 0.4% month-on-month.
United States: Payroll gains strengthen in April while wage growth remains stable
May 3, 2019
The April jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that the economy revved up after a soft patch in February.
United States: Fed indicates no urge to change rates in May; Powell signals mild concerns over low inflation
May 1, 2019
At its 30 April–1 May monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25%–2.50%.
United States: ISM manufacturing index falls to two-and-a-half year low in April on weaker orders amid declining export demand
May 1, 2019
The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector softened again in April after roughly stabilizing in the first months of the year.
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