Nigeria GDP

Economic growth picks up in the second quarter of 2026

Q2 GDP growth clocks four-year high: Nigeria's GDP increased 4.4% in annual terms in Q2, following 3.9% growth in the prior quarter. Q2's reading was the strongest since Q1 2022 and beat market expectations.

Both oil and non-oil sectors gain steam in Q2: The oil sector grew 7.3% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, following a 2.6% expansion in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the non-oil sector grew 4.3% in annual terms in Q2, following 3.9% growth in the prior quarter. Compared with the previous quarter's data, readings in Q2 improved for the agricultural sector (+4.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +3.2% in Q1), the industrial sector (+4.0% vs +3.5% in Q1) and the services sector (+4.6% vs +4.3% in Q1). Nigeria, Africa’s oil giant, benefited from higher crude oil prices in Q2 as the blockade of the Hormuz Strait constrained global supply and boosted both demand and production at the Dangote refinery and Petrochemicals FZE. The acceleration in the non-oil sector, meanwhile, was primarily driven by a pickup in agriculture and robust services growth, underpinned by crop production, telecommunications, real estate, trade, financial services, cement manufacturing and construction. Higher crop output was supported by elevated food prices, which encouraged planting and helped offset disruptions from rising insecurity in key farming regions.

Momentum to hold up: Annual GDP growth is set to average close to H1’s rate in H2, supported by stronger government spending ahead of the January 2027 general election and a modest recovery in oil production as pipeline security improves. Still, high fuel prices and restrictive interest rates will likely weigh on household spending, capping overall momentum. In 2026 as a whole, GDP growth is seen in line with 2025 and comfortably above the prior decade average.

Panelist insight: Oxford Economics’ Brendon Verster commented: “Higher-for-longer global oil prices will support economic growth via stronger export receipts and fiscal inflows, but a prolonged period of elevated local fuel prices will have a more pronounced impact on consumption demand and business activity.”

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