Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in September

Rates remain joint-highest in the EU: At its meeting on 23 September, the Central Bank decided to leave the base rate unchanged at 6.50%, keeping it at the joint-highest level in the EU alongside Romania’s policy rate. The decision aligned with market expectations.

Bank weighs inflation risks against a weak economy: The Bank ruled out a cut as inflation remained above its tolerance band of 2.0–4.0% through August, and household inflation expectations remained high. Meanwhile, a hike was also off the table due to subdued economic growth.

Most panelists now see rates on hold this year: The Central Bank emphasized the importance of maintaining tight monetary conditions to achieve the inflation target in a sustainable manner. Following recent upgrades, most of our panelists now expect the policy rate to end 2025 at current levels as inflation remains above target and the economy struggles to take off. Still, a minority see scope for a 25–50 basis point cut. The Bank should reconvene on 21 October.

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