SARB Repo Rate in South Africa
The South African Reserve Bank's policy rates over the last decade reflected the country's economic challenges. Initially, rates were increased to combat inflation and stabilize the Rand. However, in 2020, in response to the COVID-19 economic fallout, rates were significantly reduced to historic lows to support economic growth. By 2022, as the economy began recovering and inflationary pressures emerged, the central bank started increasing rates, before mild monetary easing in 2024. The SARB Repo Rate ended 2022 at 7.00%, up from the 3.75% end-2021 value and higher than the reading of 5.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Sub-Saharan Africa was 11.80% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
South Africa Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for South Africa from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
South Africa Interest Rate Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SARB Repo Rate (%, eop) | 3.50 | 3.75 | 7.00 | 8.25 | 7.75 |
3-Month JIBAR (%, eop) | 3.87 | 3.85 | 6.50 | 8.43 | 7.71 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 9.70 | 9.82 | 11.30 | 11.33 | 10.32 |
SARB holds fire in March
SARB pauses loosening cycle, as expected: At its meeting on 20 March, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held fire and kept its policy rate at 7.50%. The hold followed three consecutive quarter-point reductions and had been largely priced in by markets. The decision was once again not unanimous: Two of the MPC’s six members preferred another 25 basis point cut.
Rising economic uncertainty and price pressures prompt pause: The SARB’s hold was partly driven by its assessment that risks to the inflationary outlook in the medium term are skewed to the upside. Furthermore, the SARB hiked its core inflation projections for 2026 and 2027 by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively. Moreover, the Bank described current global economic uncertainty as “extreme”, citing trade tensions and shifting geopolitical alliances, calling for caution regarding monetary policy decisions.
Fewer cuts now forecast ahead: The SARB forecasts its policy rate to end the year at 7.25%, a level the Bank considers neutral—that which matches aggregate demand and supply. That said, the Bank’s governor noted that this is only “broad” guidance. The SARB will reconvene on 29 May. A slight majority of our panelists see the Bank staying put in Q2 and resuming the easing cycle in Q3; the rest see cuts in Q2. Overall in 2025, our panelists have turned more hawkish and our Consensus is now for a little over 25 basis points of additional cuts by end-2025, matching the SARB’s forecast, instead of 75 basis points after the SARB’s January meeting.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects South African interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for South African interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our South African interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of South African interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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