Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

February 20, 2018

Leading economic indicators suggest that GDP maintained a healthy rate of expansion throughout the last quarter of 2017 and into 2018. Foreign direct investment expanded by double digits in 2017, contrasting a significant decline in the previous year. Business conditions remained strong in December and January, with the PMI coming in comfortably above the 50-point mark in each month, indicating expansionary conditions in the private sector. In addition, business sentiment remained positive in January, and economic activity grew at a stable rate, pointing to a solid start to the year for Uganda’s economy.

Uganda Economic Growth

GDP is projected to expand at a robust pace in 2018 on the back of consumption growth and solid investment activity. However, weaknesses in the financial system, particularly the low level of credit in the private sector and the high cost of small loans, present downsides to the growth outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 5.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, our panel expects GDP to increase 5.8%.

Uganda Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)36.337.638.739.941.1
GDP per capita (USD)661662700632616
GDP (USD bn)24.024.927.125.225.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.24.74.95.72.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-4.1-4.8-4.5-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.327.330.133.235.7
Money (annual variation in %)13.98.415.65.413.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.35.52.18.45.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.74.93.15.45.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.5011.0017.0012.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,6902,5232,7653,3723,610
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5052,5862,5993,2403,418
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-7.2-8.8-7.1-4.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-1.8-2.4-1.8-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.5-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.4
Exports (USD billion)2.82.82.72.72.9
Imports (USD billion)5.35.05.15.04.3
Exports (annual variation in %)11.60.7-3.7-2.19.5
Imports (annual variation in %)5.3-5.52.5-2.8-12.7
International Reserves (USD)3.03.13.22.83.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.719.318.422.821.7

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Uganda Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.201.02 %Feb 22
Exchange Rate3,6600.17 %Feb 22
Stock Market0.40.0 %Feb 21

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