Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

August 25, 2020

The economy contracted 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, after growth slowed in the first quarter. Domestic and foreign lockdowns to fight the pandemic resulted in a broad-based deterioration of the economy, hitting the external sector particularly hard with a negative impact on foreign direct investment, remittances, tourism and exports. Moreover, the locust infestation that started in February is not yet under control, weighing on agricultural production in Q2. On the positive side, the PMI rose above the 50-threshold in July, supported by higher demand thanks to the easing of restrictions, and signaling an improvement in the business environment. Nevertheless, activity is likely to remain muted, as uncertainty regarding the pandemic, employment levels and income remains.

Uganda Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow in 2020, but at a much slower pace than in recent years, resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, the locust plague and floods, which have harmed tourism, exports and domestic activity. Fiscal stimulus and international aid should soften the slowdown, although uncertainty regarding the evolution of the pandemic and the locust plague dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 1.9% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.8% in 2021.

Uganda Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)35.536.637.738.839.8
GDP per capita (USD)829835837867912
GDP (USD bn)29.430.531.533.736.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.00.67.26.05.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-4.1-3.2-3.8-6.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.337.139.741.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.613.515.46.316.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.45.73.32.23.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.45.55.62.62.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)17.0012.009.5010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,3723,6103,6453,7153,670
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3,2403,4183,6123,7283,704
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.2-2.8-4.5-7.2-9.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-0.8-1.5-2.3-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.6-1.7-2.5-2.7
Exports (USD billion)2.72.93.43.64.1
Imports (USD billion)5.04.55.26.16.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.19.518.15.611.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.8-8.814.318.111.7
International Reserves (USD)2.83.03.73.23.2
External Debt (% of GDP)32.533.037.136.6-  

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Uganda Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield15.751.02 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3,6700.17 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 07

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