Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

June 18, 2019

Growth is likely to have moderated somewhat in the first quarter, on the heels of a buoyant Q4 2018. The economic activity index softened in Q1 while the PMI trended lower than in the previous quarter, owing to rising business costs amid higher inflation. On a brighter note, the external sector likely contributed to the overall quarterly expansion, as gold exports hit a record high in March, which more than offset lower coffee shipments. Turning to Q2, improved economic activity in April suggests that tailwinds may have held up. The PMI rose in both April and May on the back of increased customer demand and continued job creation. Furthermore, double-digit export growth in April should provide an additional push to the second quarter expansion.

Uganda Economic Growth

The economy is projected to grow at a strong clip this year, although growth will likely moderate a notch. Domestic demand should benefit from increased public infrastructure investment and an expansion of financial services. That said, rising price pressures and slower export growth, in part due to volatility in global commodity prices, represent the key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 5.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 5.8% in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812698690717
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.825.227.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.7-4.7-4.8-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.830.733.237.040.7
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6103,645
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2403,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.7-3.3-5.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.8-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.6-1.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.518.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-8.814.3
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)33.630.938.637.741.4

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Uganda Facts

Bond Yield14.301.02 %Jul 11
Exchange Rate3,6950.17 %Jul 11
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jul 11

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