Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

December 18, 2017

According to recently released data, economic activity expanded at the fastest clip since May in October, and indicators for November seem to indicate another solid month. The PMI increased for the 10th consecutive month, signaling ongoing growth in Uganda’s private sector economy. It came mainly on the back of growth in output, new orders and employment. New orders and output are likely to pick up further in the coming months as the political deadlock in Kenya, a crucial trading partner for Uganda, comes to an end. Business confidence also increased in November, but access to credit remained tight.

Uganda Economic Growth

Growth is likely to remain solid next year; accommodative monetary policy and a recovery in external demand and investment should support the economy. Downside risks are present, however, in the ongoing political tensions over the age limit of presidential candidates. For 2018, our panel foresees GDP growth picking up to 5.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, our panel expects GDP to increase 6.0%.

Uganda Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)36.337.638.739.941.1
GDP per capita (USD)661662700632616
GDP (USD bn)24.024.927.125.225.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.24.74.95.72.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-4.1-4.8-4.5-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.327.330.133.235.7
Money (annual variation in %)13.98.415.65.413.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.35.52.18.45.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.74.93.15.45.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.5011.0017.0012.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,6902,5232,7653,3723,610
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5052,5862,5993,2403,418
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-7.2-8.8-7.1-4.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-1.8-2.4-1.8-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.5-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.4
Exports (USD billion)2.82.82.72.72.9
Imports (USD billion)5.35.05.15.04.3
Exports (annual variation in %)11.60.7-3.7-2.19.5
Imports (annual variation in %)5.3-5.52.5-2.8-12.7
International Reserves (USD)3.03.13.22.83.0
External Debt (% of GDP)15.719.318.422.821.7

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Uganda Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.951.02 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate3,6250.17 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.40.0 %Dec 06

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