Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

Although growth appears to have lost some traction in Q1 2019, it should have remained robust nonetheless after the services and agricultural sectors powered Q4 2018’s strong expansion. The economic activity index continued to improve in Q1, although at a markedly slower pace than in Q4. The slowdown was likely related to rising headwinds in the manufacturing sector: Average PMI weakened in Q1 compared to Q4, partly due to rising business costs amid higher inflation. On a more positive note, business confidence hovered around a five-year high throughout Q1 amid upbeat sentiment in the construction, services and agricultural sectors. External sector metrics were also upbeat: Exports surged by nearly a quarter in Q1 thanks to booming demand for gold, which more than offset lower coffee shipments.

Uganda Economic Growth

Growth is expected to lose some steam this year although should stay robust nonetheless. Rising business investment and increased public infrastructure spending should prop up domestic demand, although further oil production delays could curb the expansion. Volatile global commodity prices and unfavorable weather conditions also threaten the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 5.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 5.7% again in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812697687718
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.725.127.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.7-4.6-3.8-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.730.833.537.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.615.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6103,645
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2403,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.8-2.8-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.514.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-10.713.8
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.332.023.321.925.5

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Uganda Facts

Bond Yield15.851.02 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate3,7450.17 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.50.0 %Jun 12

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