Uganda Economic Outlook
February 19, 2019
Available data suggests that robust growth carried through to the end of last year, on the heels of a strong third-quarter outturn. The index of economic activity hit a fresh all-time high in December, signaling sustained growth in the private sector as easing inflationary pressures, the stabilizing shilling and greater lending to the private sector likely propelled household consumption. The external sector fared less well, however, with merchandise exports growing only marginally in Q4, weighed on by lower coffee exports. Meanwhile, survey-based data signals momentum carried over into this year, with the PMI surging to an all-time high in January amid solid new orders and output growth.Uganda Economic Growth
Robust domestic demand should continue spearheading healthy growth this year, amid a pick-up in public infrastructure spending and sustained private sector credit growth. The all-important agricultural sector remains the key downside risk to the outlook, however, owing to its vulnerabilities to weather factors and global commodity prices. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 5.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 5.7% again in 2020.Uganda Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 33.5 | 34.5 | 35.5 | 36.6 | 37.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 761 | 812 | 697 | 687 | 718 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 25.5 | 28.0 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 27.0 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 6.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -4.7 | -4.6 | -3.8 | -4.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 27.7 | 30.8 | 33.5 | 37.2 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 8.4 | 15.6 | 5.4 | 13.6 | 15.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 5.5 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 4.9 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 2,523 | 2,765 | 3,372 | 3,610 | 3,645 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 11.50 | 11.00 | 17.00 | 12.00 | 9.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 2,586 | 2,599 | 3,240 | 3,418 | 3,612 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -7.2 | -7.7 | -6.8 | -2.8 | -4.3 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.8 | -2.2 | -1.7 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -2.1 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -1.7 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 0.7 | -3.7 | -2.1 | 9.5 | 14.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -5.5 | 2.5 | -2.8 | -10.7 | 13.8 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 34.3 | 32.0 | 23.3 | 21.9 | 25.5 |
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Uganda Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3,701 | 0.17 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 0.0 | 0.0 % | Mar 11 |
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