Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Incoming data suggests that the economy shifted into a higher gear in the second half of the year, after GDP growth softened in Q2. The country’s PMI surged to an all-time high in October amid buoyant domestic demand, which led to robust growth in output and new orders. In addition, the business tendency indicator hit an eight-month high in the same month, largely thanks to an improving perception of the business situation over the next three months. The agricultural sector appears to be leading this positivity on expectations of a strong coffee harvest season this year.

Uganda Economic Growth

Domestic demand is expected to drive growth next year, supported by healthy private sector credit growth, higher infrastructure spending and continued FDI inflows. The key risks to the outlook stem from the country’s all-important agricultural sector and associated exports, which are highly vulnerable to weather factors and global commodity price trends. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 5.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 6.1% in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812697687718
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.725.127.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.7-4.6-3.8-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.730.833.537.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.615.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6103,645
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2403,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.8-2.8-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.514.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-10.713.8
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.332.023.321.925.5

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Uganda Facts

Exchange Rate3,7150.17 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.00.0 %Dec 11

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