Uganda Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
Economic conditions likely improved in the third quarter, after GDP contracted in the second on the fallout from the pandemic. Economic activity gained notable momentum in Q3 on average, while exports and imports grew strongly after a sharp decrease in Q2, suggesting that both foreign and domestic demand strengthened in the period amid the further easing of restrictions. Turning to Q4, in October, the private sector PMI climbed to its highest level since the breakout of the pandemic, highlighting a sharp improvement in business conditions as further restrictions were removed. Consequently, output continued to expand, leading to higher employment levels and boding well for private consumption in turn. Additionally, more measures were lifted on 14 November, which should support activity going forward; however, domestic and global Covid-19 cases continue to rise.Uganda Economic Growth
The economy will have suffered this year, hit by the fallout from the pandemic and locust plagues. However, it is expected to grow notably next year as aggregate demand improves. That said, the global surge in Covid-19 cases poses a key downside risk, as some regions are bringing back restrictions that could weigh on the external sector. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 4.7% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% in 2022.Uganda Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 35.5 | 36.6 | 37.7 | 38.8 | 39.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 829 | 835 | 837 | 867 | 912 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 29.4 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 33.7 | 36.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.0 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -4.1 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -6.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 34.3 | 37.1 | 39.7 | 41.4 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 5.6 | 13.5 | 15.4 | 6.3 | 16.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 8.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 17.00 | 12.00 | 9.50 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3,372 | 3,610 | 3,645 | 3,715 | 3,670 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3,240 | 3,418 | 3,612 | 3,728 | 3,704 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.2 | -2.8 | -4.5 | -7.2 | -9.5 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.7 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -2.3 | -2.3 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -2.7 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -2.1 | 9.5 | 18.1 | 5.6 | 11.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -2.8 | -8.8 | 14.3 | 18.1 | 11.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 32.5 | 33.0 | 37.1 | 36.6 | - |
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Uganda Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 15.75 | 1.02 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 3,670 | 0.17 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.3 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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