Uganda Economic Outlook
May 26, 2020
The economy has started Q2 on weaker footing after likely slowing notably at the end of Q1, as Covid-19 dampens domestic activity and foreign demand. In April, business conditions in the private sector deteriorated markedly, with the PMI dropping to a record low amid falling output, new orders and purchasing activity due to lockdown measures. Weaker demand led to firms shedding jobs, which will impact private consumption in the quarter, dragging further on the economy, while the pandemic is likely also affecting exports as global demand diminishes. In addition, the locust infestation continues to weigh on the agricultural sector and poses food security issues. More positively, the government began the gradual lifting of lockdown measures from early May, while the IMF approved USD 492 million in emergency funding and the World Bank announced USD 48 million to tackle the locust infestation.Uganda Economic Growth
The global pandemic and the locust plague will significantly slow economic growth this year. The double shock will weigh heavily on exports, while Covid-19 will also impact tourism and domestic activity. Fiscal stimulus should cushion the moderation somewhat, but uncertainty over the duration and full impact of the pandemic; sizeable twin deficits; and a growing debt burden pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in 2021.Uganda Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 35.5 | 36.6 | 37.7 | 38.8 | 39.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 699 | 839 | 837 | 870 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 24.8 | 30.7 | 31.5 | 33.8 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 5.7 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.7 | -4.8 | -3.8 | -4.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 34.3 | 37.1 | 39.7 | 41.4 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 5.6 | 13.5 | 15.4 | 6.3 | 16.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 8.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 17.00 | 12.00 | 9.50 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3,372 | 3,610 | 3,645 | 3,715 | 3,670 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3,240 | 3,418 | 3,612 | 3,728 | 3,704 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.7 | -2.7 | -4.7 | -7.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.7 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -2.6 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -2.7 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -2.1 | 9.5 | 18.1 | 5.6 | 11.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -2.8 | -8.8 | 14.3 | 18.1 | 11.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 38.6 | 32.9 | 37.1 | 36.5 | - |
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Uganda Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 15.75 | 1.02 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 3,670 | 0.17 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.3 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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