Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

Growth seems to have remained relatively downbeat in the second quarter, after tumbling activity in the mining and quarrying, and construction sectors dragged on growth at the outset of the year. The Central Bank’s compositive index suggests that economic activity slowed to a two-and-a-half-year low in Q2, reflecting softening dynamics both on the external front and domestically. A jump in inflation, a weaker shilling and a slight downturn in business sentiment likely weighed on private consumption and investment in the quarter. Meanwhile, export growth more than halved in Q2, against the backdrop of a cooling global economy and ongoing trade spats. A higher PMI, lower inflation and a stronger shilling in July signal a likely improvement domestic economic conditions at the outset of the third quarter, however.

Uganda Economic Growth

The economy is expected to sustain a healthy pace of expansion this year, on the back of upbeat private consumption growth. That said, growth is likely to lose some pace due to a feebler external backdrop and as public spending and investment activity lose considerable traction from an impressive performance last year. Regional tensions remain a major risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 5.8% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 5.9% in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812698690717
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.825.227.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.74.55.72.64.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.7-4.7-4.8-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.830.733.237.040.7
Money (annual variation in %)9.014.85.613.515.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.52.18.45.73.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.93.15.45.55.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6103,645
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2403,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.7-3.3-5.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.8-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.6-1.7
Exports (USD billion)2.82.72.72.93.4
Imports (USD billion)5.05.15.04.55.2
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.518.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-8.814.3
International Reserves (USD)3.13.22.83.03.7
External Debt (% of GDP)33.630.938.637.741.4

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Uganda Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.301.02 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate3,6800.17 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.30.0 %Sep 04

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