Uganda Economic Outlook
February 20, 2018Leading economic indicators suggest that GDP maintained a healthy rate of expansion throughout the last quarter of 2017 and into 2018. Foreign direct investment expanded by double digits in 2017, contrasting a significant decline in the previous year. Business conditions remained strong in December and January, with the PMI coming in comfortably above the 50-point mark in each month, indicating expansionary conditions in the private sector. In addition, business sentiment remained positive in January, and economic activity grew at a stable rate, pointing to a solid start to the year for Uganda’s economy.
Uganda Economic GrowthGDP is projected to expand at a robust pace in 2018 on the back of consumption growth and solid investment activity. However, weaknesses in the financial system, particularly the low level of credit in the private sector and the high cost of small loans, present downsides to the growth outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 5.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, our panel expects GDP to increase 5.8%.
Uganda Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||661||662||700||632||616|
|GDP (USD bn)||24.0||24.9||27.1||25.2||25.3|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.2||4.7||4.9||5.7||2.3|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.1||-4.1||-4.8||-4.5||-3.8|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||24.3||27.3||30.1||33.2||35.7|
|Money (annual variation in %)||13.9||8.4||15.6||5.4||13.6|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||4.3||5.5||2.1||8.4||5.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||12.7||4.9||3.1||5.4||5.5|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||12.00||11.50||11.00||17.00||12.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||2,690||2,523||2,765||3,372||3,610|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||2,505||2,586||2,599||3,240||3,418|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-6.9||-7.2||-8.8||-7.1||-4.7|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-1.7||-1.8||-2.4||-1.8||-1.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-2.5||-2.1||-2.4||-2.3||-1.4|
|Exports (USD billion)||2.8||2.8||2.7||2.7||2.9|
|Imports (USD billion)||5.3||5.0||5.1||5.0||4.3|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||11.6||0.7||-3.7||-2.1||9.5|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||5.3||-5.5||2.5||-2.8||-12.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||3.0||3.1||3.2||2.8||3.0|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||15.7||19.3||18.4||22.8||21.7|
5 years of Uganda economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||14.20||1.02 %||Feb 22|
|Exchange Rate||3,660||0.17 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||0.4||0.0 %||Feb 21|
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