Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

Economic conditions likely improved in the third quarter, after GDP contracted in the second on the fallout from the pandemic. Economic activity gained notable momentum in Q3 on average, while exports and imports grew strongly after a sharp decrease in Q2, suggesting that both foreign and domestic demand strengthened in the period amid the further easing of restrictions. Turning to Q4, in October, the private sector PMI climbed to its highest level since the breakout of the pandemic, highlighting a sharp improvement in business conditions as further restrictions were removed. Consequently, output continued to expand, leading to higher employment levels and boding well for private consumption in turn. Additionally, more measures were lifted on 14 November, which should support activity going forward; however, domestic and global Covid-19 cases continue to rise.

Uganda Economic Growth

The economy will have suffered this year, hit by the fallout from the pandemic and locust plagues. However, it is expected to grow notably next year as aggregate demand improves. That said, the global surge in Covid-19 cases poses a key downside risk, as some regions are bringing back restrictions that could weigh on the external sector. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 4.7% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% in 2022.

Uganda Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)35.536.637.738.839.8
GDP per capita (USD)829835837867912
GDP (USD bn)29.430.531.533.736.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.00.67.26.05.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-4.1-3.2-3.8-6.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.337.139.741.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.613.515.46.316.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.45.73.32.23.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.45.55.62.62.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)17.0012.009.5010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,3723,6103,6453,7153,670
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3,2403,4183,6123,7283,704
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.2-2.8-4.5-7.2-9.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-0.8-1.5-2.3-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.6-1.7-2.5-2.7
Exports (USD billion)2.72.93.43.64.1
Imports (USD billion)5.04.55.26.16.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.19.518.15.611.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.8-8.814.318.111.7
International Reserves (USD)2.83.03.73.23.2
External Debt (% of GDP)32.533.037.136.6-  

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Uganda Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield15.751.02 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3,6700.17 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 07

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