Uganda Economic Outlook
A rapidly growing economy:
Uganda has sustained impressive economic growth, averaging 5-6% per year, driven by agriculture, services, and a growing industrial sector. With a population exceeding 45 million, Uganda has a youthful workforce that presents opportunities for growth but also challenges in terms of employment generation.
Agriculture and oil potential:Agriculture remains the backbone of Uganda’s economy, employing over 70% of the population. Coffee is the country’s largest export, followed by tea, fish, and maize. However, the discovery of substantial oil reserves in the Albertine Graben has the potential to transform Uganda’s economy. Delayed by infrastructure bottlenecks, oil production is expected to commence by 2025, bringing in significant revenues.
Investment and trade prospects:Uganda is part of the East African Community (EAC) and benefits from regional trade agreements. The government has been pushing for industrialization through initiatives like the "Buy Uganda, Build Uganda" policy, which promotes local manufacturing. Kampala, the capital, has become a regional hub for services, particularly in banking and ICT.
Challenges and risks:Uganda struggles with high levels of informal employment, inadequate infrastructure, and slow progress in poverty reduction. Political uncertainty and concerns over governance have deterred some investors, while heavy public debt raises questions about fiscal sustainability. Additionally, climate change poses a risk to the agriculture-dependent economy.
Uganda’s economic outlook:Economic projections for Uganda remain strong, bolstered by oil sector development, infrastructure projects, and regional trade. However, ensuring that economic growth translates into widespread job creation and poverty reduction will be key. Long-term success will depend on political stability, investment in human capital, and a diversified economic base.
Uganda's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 56.6 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 51.9 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 1,208 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 1,142 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 4.5% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 5.1% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 42.4% of overall GDP, manufacturing 15.6%, other industrial activity 18.2%, and agriculture 23.8%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 71.3% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 9.5%, fixed investment 23.3%, and net exports -4.1%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 19.1% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 3.4%, food 48.0%, ores and metals 0.7% and agricultural raw materials 2.6%, with other categories accounting for 26.2% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 56.5% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 14.2%, food 14.2%, ores and metals 1.6% and agricultural raw materials 1.6%, with other goods accounting for 11.9% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 8.60 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 12.20 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 4.5% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Uganda, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Uganda's fiscal deficit averaged 4.4% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 3.0% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Uganda's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 4.1% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Uganda inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Uganda's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 9.75%, down from 11.00% a decade earlier. See our Uganda monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the shilling weakened by 24.7% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the shilling, click here.
Economic situation in Uganda
Our Consensus is for annual GDP growth to have dipped to a five-quarter low in Q4. Looking at available data, economic activity expanded less than in the prior quarter. Moreover, the quantity of coffee shipments—Uganda’s top export—rose by just 0.8% compared to Q3’s 10.4% increase, likely due to adverse weather in the Mount Elgon region. That said, GDP growth will have remained above the 10-year average and the average for developing countries. Turning to Q1 2025, our Consensus is for the economy to expand at the quickest pace since Q3 2022. In January, economic activity improved at the fastest speed in 11 months, and the volume of coffee exports soared by 11.4% in annual terms. In addition, business sentiment improved from Q4 in January–February to some of the highest levels since records began in 2012, likely supporting investment.Uganda Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.44 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 15 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Uganda in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 44 economic indicators for Uganda from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Uganda economy. To download a sample report on the Uganda's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.