Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

The economy has started Q2 on weaker footing after likely slowing notably at the end of Q1, as Covid-19 dampens domestic activity and foreign demand. In April, business conditions in the private sector deteriorated markedly, with the PMI dropping to a record low amid falling output, new orders and purchasing activity due to lockdown measures. Weaker demand led to firms shedding jobs, which will impact private consumption in the quarter, dragging further on the economy, while the pandemic is likely also affecting exports as global demand diminishes. In addition, the locust infestation continues to weigh on the agricultural sector and poses food security issues. More positively, the government began the gradual lifting of lockdown measures from early May, while the IMF approved USD 492 million in emergency funding and the World Bank announced USD 48 million to tackle the locust infestation.

Uganda Economic Growth

The global pandemic and the locust plague will significantly slow economic growth this year. The double shock will weigh heavily on exports, while Covid-19 will also impact tourism and domestic activity. Fiscal stimulus should cushion the moderation somewhat, but uncertainty over the duration and full impact of the pandemic; sizeable twin deficits; and a growing debt burden pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in 2021.

Uganda Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)35.536.637.738.839.8
GDP per capita (USD)699839837870-  
GDP (USD bn)24.830.731.533.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.73.06.95.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.7-4.8-3.8-4.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.337.139.741.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.613.515.46.316.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.45.73.32.23.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.45.55.62.62.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)17.0012.009.5010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,3723,6103,6453,7153,670
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3,2403,4183,6123,7283,704
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.7-2.7-4.7-7.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-0.8-1.5-2.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.6-1.7-2.5-2.7
Exports (USD billion)2.72.93.43.64.1
Imports (USD billion)5.04.55.26.16.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.19.518.15.611.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.8-8.814.318.111.7
International Reserves (USD)2.83.03.73.23.8
External Debt (% of GDP)38.632.937.136.5-  

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Uganda Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield15.751.02 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3,6700.17 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 07

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