Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

December 13, 2019

Economic growth appears to have quickened in the third quarter, after slowing to a one-year low in the second quarter. The economic activity index strengthened in Q3, compared to the prior period, while business sentiment remained broadly stable. Moreover, the PMI averaged higher in Q3 than in Q2, suggesting robust private sector dynamics in Q3. Turning to Q4, incoming data is mixed. Merchandise exports contracted in October, while business sentiment weakened on average in October–November amid easing optimism among firms, particularly in the wholesale trade and other services sectors. However, the economic activity index rose in October and the PMI averaged higher in October–November than in Q3 amid upbeat demand dynamics, which supported increases in new orders, production and staffing levels. This hints at a continued buoyant private sector activity in the final months of the year.

Uganda Economic Growth

Economic activity is seen picking up slightly next year amid stronger domestic demand. Buoyant household consumption is likely to underpin overall growth, while robust investment activity and solid government expenditure should provide further support. The country’s weak fiscal position and adverse weather conditions pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 5.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% again in 2021.

Uganda Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812698690717
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.825.227.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.74.55.72.64.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.7-4.7-4.8-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.830.733.237.040.7
Money (annual variation in %)9.014.85.613.515.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.52.18.45.73.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.93.15.45.55.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6103,645
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2403,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.7-3.3-5.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.8-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.6-1.7
Exports (USD billion)2.82.72.72.93.4
Imports (USD billion)5.05.15.04.55.2
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.518.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-8.814.3
International Reserves (USD)3.13.22.83.03.7
External Debt (% of GDP)33.630.938.637.741.4

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Uganda Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield15.751.02 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3,6700.17 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 07

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