Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

May 17, 2022

Following Q3’s acceleration driven by a surge in crude oil exploration and extraction, growth momentum likely carried over into Q4 of 2021, further aided by the easing of Covid-19-related restrictions. Still, higher inflation and an uptick in the unemployment rate in the period should have capped household spending. Turning to 2022, inflation rose quickly in January–February and likely accelerated further though May, as commodity prices rose globally, hurting consumers’ purchasing power. That said, the rollback of all Covid-19 restrictions will have supported business activity and the tourism sector. Meanwhile, higher energy prices favor the external sector; mineral fuels account for over half of the country’s goods exports. Fertilizer prices have also risen due to the war in Ukraine, driving up prices for agricultural product exports, which should be supporting government finances.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Economic growth should accelerate this year from last year’s expected tepid figure. The rollback of Covid-19 curbs and reactivated business activity, buoyed by bank financing, should support the upturn, while greater commodity prices bode well for government coffers. New gas projects coming online this year should further fuel the acceleration. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 5.9% in 2022, which is up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2023, economic growth is seen at 2.3%.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-2.13.10.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.11.31.00.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.73.11.91.01.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-4.45.35.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-1.01.21.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.91.23.03.9-  
Exports (USD billion)11.48.39.410.5-  
Imports (USD billion)7.57.16.56.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)10.09.58.58.17.0
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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