Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

October 13, 2020

The economy likely contracted severely in Q2 amid social distancing measures and a weaker energy sector. Turning to Q3, available indicators hint at a slight improvement in economic activity, as the total number of motor vehicle sales picked up markedly in July–August. However, energy output continued to contract in July, while the restrictions enacted in mid-August will have weighed on the economy towards the end of the quarter. In October, the government presented the 2021 budget, which aims to fuel the recovery without jeopardizing the fiscal credibility of the government. The budget is worth USD 7.3 billion, down from 2020’s expected outturn of USD 7.5 billion. The cut in expenditure comes as low oil prices bite into tax revenue. Accordingly, the 2021 budget sees significant fiscal consolidation, bringing the deficit to 5.6% in 2021 from 2020’s 11.0%.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

The economy will be depressed this year as the coronavirus spreads both infection and uncertainty, hampering activity in the process. Moreover, low energy prices will weigh on an already bruised energy sector, denting government revenues in turn. Next year, economic activity is set for a slight recovery as foreign demand normalizes and oil prices pick up somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 6.1% in 2020, before growing 3.0% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-2.13.10.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.11.31.00.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.73.11.91.01.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-4.45.35.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-1.01.21.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.91.23.03.9-  
Exports (USD billion)11.48.39.410.5-  
Imports (USD billion)7.57.16.56.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)10.09.58.58.17.0
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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