Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

October 9, 2018

The economy likely performed well in the second quarter, supported by higher energy prices and greater natural gas production thanks to the Juniper project. This fed through to an increase in government revenues which helped the fiscal deficit narrow markedly in year-on-year terms. In Q3, elevated crude prices should have continued to buttress economic activity, although the non-oil sector likely remained sluggish. On 1 October, the government presented its budget for the 2019 fiscal year. It estimates double-digit revenue growth, a more modest increase in spending, and a marked narrowing of the fiscal deficit, to be financed mainly by domestic capital markets.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate next year due to greater natural gas output, as the Angelin project comes online. Low economic diversification however makes the country vulnerable to a downturn in energy prices. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 1.2% this year and 1.8% in 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.31.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,61119,33217,32316,040-  
GDP (USD bn)26.426.223.621.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.7-0.6-0.6-2.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-13.6-0.98.9-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)10.94.6-31.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.33.43.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.6-1.7-5.3-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.246.350.958.861.6
Money (annual variation in %)8.813.1-1.43.2-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.68.51.53.11.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.74.73.11.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.753.254.754.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.416.376.426.716.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.416.396.366.636.74
Current Account (% of GDP)20.314.74.6-11.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.44.01.1-2.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.66.42.5-1.2-  
Exports (USD billion)17.615.011.18.2-  
Imports (USD billion)10.08.68.69.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)36.2-14.9-25.7-26.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.2-14.40.59.5-  
International Reserves (USD)10.211.59.99.58.4
External Debt (% of GDP)14.515.316.721.8-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.740.39 %Oct 12

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