Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

Although hard data is limited, the economy likely fared well in the first quarter. The energy sector should have underpinned growth as evidenced by a solid pick-up in liquid natural gas production, supported by the Angelin project coming onstream in February. Meanwhile, government investment in infrastructure and housing developments should have helped to revive activity in the non-oil sector. On the fiscal front, the 2019 mid-year budget review in May revealed the fiscal performance so far this year was better than expected; however, the Ministry of Finance now expects the downturn in oil prices to cause the fiscal deficit to widen more than projected.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate notably in 2019, likely weighed on by a sluggish non-energy sector. Nevertheless, increased LNG production thanks in part to the Angelin project should support the economy. Volatility in commodity prices, the ongoing crisis in neighboring Venezuela and high household debt are key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 1.2% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% in 2020.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4
GDP per capita (USD)	19,611	19,332	17,323	16,040	-
GDP (USD bn)	26.4	26.2	23.6	21.9	-
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.7	-0.6	-0.6	-2.3	-
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-13.6	-0.9	8.9	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	10.9	4.6	-31.5	-	-
Unemployment Rate	3.7	3.3	3.4	3.9	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.9	-2.6	-1.7	-5.3	-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	40.2	46.3	50.9	58.8	61.6
Money (annual variation in %)	8.8	13.1	-1.4	3.2	-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.6	8.5	1.5	3.1	1.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.2	5.7	4.7	3.1	1.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	2.75	3.25	4.75	4.75	4.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.41	6.37	6.42	6.71	6.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.41	6.39	6.36	6.63	6.74
Current Account (% of GDP)	20.3	14.7	4.6	-11.7	-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	5.4	4.0	1.1	-2.6	-
Trade Balance (USD billion)	7.6	6.4	2.5	-1.2	-
Exports (USD billion)	17.6	15.0	11.1	8.2	-
Imports (USD billion)	10.0	8.6	8.6	9.4	-
Exports (annual variation in %)	36.2	-14.9	-25.7	-26.1	-
Imports (annual variation in %)	-14.2	-14.4	0.5	9.5	-
International Reserves (USD)	10.2	11.5	9.9	9.5	8.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	14.5	15.3	16.7	21.8	-

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.78	0.39 %	Jun 13

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