Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

After likely tepid growth in 2021, the economy should be gaining speed this year. The progressive rollback of Covid-19 restrictions—most recently by scrapping the travel pass for visitors from June—should be aiding tourist arrivals and services activity more broadly. Moreover, higher prices for key exports such as oil, gas and fertilizer will be buoying government coffers. Less positively, available data shows that year-on-year production in volume terms of gas, methanol and ammonia has declined so far in 2022. Moreover, higher global price pressures in the wake of the war in Ukraine could be capping private spending. In May, the government published its mid-year budget review, where they proposed USD 3 billion in extra spending for this year, including USD 1.6 billion for VAT refunds and USD 0.8 billion for fuel subsidies. Greater government spending will boost demand ahead.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Economic growth should accelerate this year from last year’s expected weak reading, as higher energy prices allow for a less restrictive fiscal stance, and the impact of the pandemic subsides. High levels of violence and relatively high public debt pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 5.9% in 2022, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. In 2023, economic growth is seen at 2.3%.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-2.13.10.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.11.31.00.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.73.11.91.01.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-4.45.35.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-1.01.21.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.91.23.03.9-  
Exports (USD billion)11.48.39.410.5-  
Imports (USD billion)7.57.16.56.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)10.09.58.58.17.0
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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