Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

November 9, 2021

Available data points to muted economic activity in Q2. Stricter Covid-19 measures in May–June had an immediate impact on the domestic market, as shown by falling vehicle sales during the period. Looking at production indicators, crude oil output remained strong in April–May, but LNG output contracted at a sharper pace in Q2 overall. Moving on to Q3, in mid-July the government eased some restrictions, seemingly spurring the domestic market as motor vehicle sales recovered in the quarter. Meanwhile, LNG output remained relatively downbeat in the period, at roughly half of last year’s level. Looking at Q4, after shortening the nightly curfew in October, authorities further eased restrictions on 1 November, allowing leisure establishments such as cinemas, restaurants and bars to resume in-person services at 50% capacity. In other news, the Senate approved the 2022 budget on 21 October.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Activity will likely grow at a healthy pace in 2022, after this year’s rebound. Looser restrictions and strong fiscal support should boost the domestic market, while vaccination progress will offset Covid-19-related risks. Meanwhile, the discovery of new gas fields bodes well for the energy sector. The potential to untap further oil and gas reserves poses an upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.4% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2023, economic growth is seen at 2.3%.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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