Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

The economy likely contracted sharply in Q2 amid social distancing measures and a softened energy sector. Looking at the third quarter, domestic momentum seemed to pick up as both cement and motor vehicle sales were significantly higher compared to the previous quarter, suggesting stronger construction activity and private consumption, respectively. That said, the vital energy industry likely lost steam as production of liquefied natural gas fell well below Q2’s monthly average in Q3, while the chemicals industry also showed weakness, as ammonia and fertilizer exports were below Q2’s monthly average in July–August. In other news, some restrictions were lifted on 26 October, including the reopening of gyms, cinemas, casinos and theaters at 50% capacity, boding well for recovery in the fourth quarter.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

The economy will be depressed this year as the coronavirus spreads both infection and uncertainty, hampering activity in the process. Next year, economic activity is set to recover as foreign demand normalizes and oil prices pick up somewhat. However, the possibility of a prolonged pandemic, volatile energy prices and a tight fiscal stance pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.2% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2022, economic growth is seen at 3.3%.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-2.13.10.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.11.31.00.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.73.11.91.01.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-4.45.35.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-1.01.21.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.91.23.03.9-  
Exports (USD billion)11.48.39.410.5-  
Imports (USD billion)7.57.16.56.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)10.09.58.58.17.0
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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