Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

May 19, 2020

Economic conditions have worsened notably as the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic depresses both domestic and external demand. Containment measures have led to disruptions and closures throughout the island, while the global economy has ground to a halt. Moreover, the collapse of oil and gas prices has hammered the vital energy sector, which is also a major source of government revenues. On 27 April, in the wake of collapsing revenues, the finance minister announced that the government now expects a revenue loss of TTD 9.2 billion and that the fiscal deficit will soar to a TTD 15.5 billion shortfall this fiscal year, exacerbated by higher costs related to the health crisis (previously: TTD 5.3 billion deficit). On a brighter note, the government began relaxing some social distancing measures in May, allowing food vendors and hardware stores among others to open.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

The economy is seen falling deeper into recession this year amid twin shocks from Covid-19 and depressed energy prices. The domestic economy is seen reeling from government containment measures and a weakening labor market, while collapsed foreign demand, low energy prices and halted tourism hit the external sector. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 4.2% in 2020, which is down 2.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 1.9% in 2021.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)20,36118,48416,41416,52417,370
GDP (USD bn)27.625.122.422.623.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.01.8-6.3-2.3-0.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.98.9-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.6-31.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.33.44.04.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.248.059.162.961.6
Money (annual variation in %)13.1-1.43.2-2.13.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.51.53.11.31.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.74.73.11.91.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.254.754.754.755.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.376.426.716.776.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.396.366.636.746.75
Current Account (% of GDP)14.56.9-4.45.35.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)4.01.7-1.01.21.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.03.91.23.03.9
Exports (USD billion)15.011.48.39.410.5
Imports (USD billion)7.97.57.16.56.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.9-23.7-27.213.711.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.6-4.9-5.9-9.03.4
International Reserves (USD)11.510.09.58.58.1
External Debt (% of GDP)7.78.613.815.615.1

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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