Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

July 14, 2020

The economy is seen languishing in a deep recession this year, amid low energy prices and disruptions created by the Covid-19 pandemic. Data for the first quarter revealed falling production of both crude oil and natural gas, while new motor vehicle sales plunged over 20% suggesting depressed household spending. Moreover, recently released data revealed that the economy flatlined in 2019. Contracting activity in the energy sector in the first half of the year weighed on the economy’s performance. In the political arena, on 3 July, Prime Minister Keith Rowley announced that the country will go to the polls for a general election on 10 August. Meanwhile, the World Bank approved USD 20 million in financing to help strength Trinidad and Tobago’s healthcare sector and the fight against Covid-19.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

The Covid-19 pandemic is seen pummeling GDP as lockdowns weigh on all non-essential activity. Moreover, low energy prices will weigh on an already bruised energy sector and dent government revenues. Risks to the outlook arise chiefly from volatile energy prices, especially given the economy’s overreliance on the sector. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 5.2% in 2020, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 2.8% in 2021.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)18,48416,41416,52417,370-  
GDP (USD bn)25.122.422.623.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.8-6.3-2.3-0.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.9-  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-31.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.44.04.8185-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-5.3-8.9-3.6-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.958.361.860.163.2
Money (annual variation in %)-1.43.2-2.13.10.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.11.31.00.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.73.11.91.01.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.754.755.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.426.716.776.816.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.366.636.746.756.77
Current Account (% of GDP)6.9-4.45.35.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.7-1.01.21.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.91.23.03.9-  
Exports (USD billion)11.48.39.410.5-  
Imports (USD billion)7.57.16.56.7-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-23.7-27.213.711.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.9-5.9-9.03.4-  
International Reserves (USD)10.09.58.58.17.0
External Debt (% of GDP)8.914.315.615.5-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.760.39 %Jan 01

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