Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

October 8, 2019

The economy likely remained sluggish in the second quarter, after contracting for the third consecutive quarter in Q1. Annual natural gas output declined in Q2, owing to a shutdown at Atlantic LNG, which weighed heavily on the energy sector. Turning to the third quarter, available data is more positive. In July, natural gas production looks to have stabilized, while petrochemicals output was solid year-on-year, suggesting a stronger energy sector. Moreover, the non-energy economy should have benefited from solid consumer credit and mortgage loan growth in July. Meanwhile, cement sales year-on-year picked up in the same month, as did retail sales of construction materials, indicating an improvement in construction activity. Furthermore, continued government capital spending aimed at supporting the construction and manufacturing sectors should also bode well for non-energy sector growth going forward.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Growth should soften this year amid lower crude output, although the Angelin project should prop up gas output in H2. In 2020, the economy should gain some impetus as increased government spending spills over into the non-energy sector. Volatile commodity prices and the crisis in Venezuela continue to pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 1.4% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4
GDP per capita (USD)	20,203	20,361	18,527	16,018	16,359
GDP (USD bn)	27.2	27.6	25.2	21.9	22.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.0	-1.0	1.8	-6.5	-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-13.6	-0.9	8.9	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	10.9	4.6	-31.5	-	-
Unemployment Rate	3.7	3.3	3.4	4.0	4.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.9	-2.6	-1.7	-5.4	-9.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	39.7	45.2	51.5	58.8	61.2
Money (annual variation in %)	8.8	13.1	-1.4	3.2	-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.6	8.5	1.5	3.1	1.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.2	5.7	4.7	3.1	1.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	2.75	3.25	4.75	4.75	4.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.41	6.37	6.42	6.71	6.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.41	6.39	6.36	6.63	6.74
Current Account (% of GDP)	19.9	14.5	7.4	-3.9	4.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	5.4	4.0	1.9	-0.9	1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)	8.3	7.0	3.9	1.2	3.0
Exports (USD billion)	17.6	15.0	11.4	8.3	9.4
Imports (USD billion)	9.3	7.9	7.5	7.1	6.5
Exports (annual variation in %)	7.8	-14.9	-23.7	-27.4	13.6
Imports (annual variation in %)	0.5	-14.6	-4.9	-5.9	-9.0
International Reserves (USD)	10.2	11.5	9.9	9.5	8.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	7.6	7.7	8.6	14.2	15.7

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.78	0.39 %	Sep 04

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