Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

The economy should have perked up in the tail-end of last year but likely remained uninspiring nonetheless. Momentum in the oil and gas sector carried over into Q4 thanks to a strong rebound in crude oil production growth in October and November. Moreover, the non-energy private sector should have gained some impetus in Q4 after a reasonably upbeat Q3. Boding well for private consumption, household credit growth was healthy in October–November, the government hiked the minimum wage at the start of December, and domestic price pressures were mild in Q4. The outlook for the first quarter of 2020, however, looks less positive. Oil and gas prices plunged as a consequence of the coronavirus outbreak, which will likely weigh on merchandise exports at a time when low oil prices are already discouraging investment into the energy sector.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

The economy should improve this year, as the construction sector benefits from healthy government spending and favorable credit conditions stoke domestic demand. That said, weaker hydrocarbon prices will hinder investment into existing production capacities, while oil refineries will remain hamstrung due to sanctions on Venezuela’s crude oil—its key supplier. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 1.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, our panel sees growth of 2.0%.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4
GDP per capita (USD)	20,361	18,484	16,414	16,524	17,370
GDP (USD bn)	27.6	25.1	22.4	22.6	23.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	-1.0	1.8	-6.3	-2.3	-0.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-0.9	8.9	-	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	4.6	-31.5	-	-	-
Unemployment Rate	3.3	3.4	4.0	4.8	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.6	-1.7	-5.3	-8.9	-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	45.2	48.0	59.1	62.9	61.6
Money (annual variation in %)	13.1	-1.4	3.2	-2.1	3.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	8.5	1.5	3.1	1.3	1.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.7	4.7	3.1	1.9	1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.25	4.75	4.75	4.75	5.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.37	6.42	6.71	6.77	6.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.39	6.36	6.63	6.74	6.75
Current Account (% of GDP)	14.5	6.9	-4.4	5.3	5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	4.0	1.7	-1.0	1.2	1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)	7.0	3.9	1.2	3.0	3.9
Exports (USD billion)	15.0	11.4	8.3	9.4	10.5
Imports (USD billion)	7.9	7.5	7.1	6.5	6.7
Exports (annual variation in %)	-14.9	-23.7	-27.2	13.7	11.4
Imports (annual variation in %)	-14.6	-4.9	-5.9	-9.0	3.4
International Reserves (USD)	11.5	10.0	9.5	8.5	8.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	7.7	8.6	13.8	15.6	15.1

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.76	0.39 %	Jan 01

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