Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

February 13, 2018

Available data for the final months of last year points to a long-awaited upturn in the economy, with fiscal and output milestones appearing to lay the groundwork for an upbeat start to the year. Corporate tax changes and the creation of a new Revenue Authority, which were drafted into law in December’s 2017–18 budget and took effect this year, are part of the government’s efforts to stimulate revenue and manage fiscal imbalances. Furthermore, the launch of BP’s Juniper project in August last year and higher global energy prices this year set the stage for stronger upstream and downstream output in the sector.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

A modest revival in the energy sector is expected to lead the economy out of its years-long recession in 2018. Moreover, knock-on effects should give the non-energy sector a boost, while higher royalties on natural gas output and lower fuel subsidies should help narrow the fiscal deficit. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.2% this year, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% next year.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)19,31419,76620,25019,081-  
GDP (USD bn)25.826.627.426.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.32.3-1.0-0.6-2.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Unemployment Rate5.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-2.9-2.6-4.2-5.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.439.140.953.557.9
Money (annual variation in %)10.68.813.1-1.43.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.752.753.254.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.396.416.376.426.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.406.416.396.366.63
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.612.91.4-0.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)  
Exports (USD billion)12.918.714.610.8-  
Imports (USD billion)11.612.611.39.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.645.1-22.3-25.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)22.78.5-10.7-16.0-  
International Reserves (USD)9.410.
External Debt (% of GDP)12.814.014.3-  -  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

Exchange Rate6.770.39 %Feb 22

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