Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

The recovery in energy production looks poised to have supported growth in the first quarter; major natural gas projects have come online in recent months, with more expected to follow suit, notably in Q4. Furthermore, a fresh USD 180 million loan from the CAF Development Bank in April, along with an expected tripling of oil royalties this year, should help the government’s planned fiscal consolidation. Despite these efforts, S&P Global Ratings revised Trinidad’s sovereign rating outlook to “negative” on 27 April, citing concerns over exchange rate pressures, access to foreign currency and the impact of higher interest rates in the United States.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Higher oil prices will buoy the energy sector this year, and knock-on effects should eventually buttress non-oil growth. A new USD 100 million forex fund launched by the Export Import Bank in April should also support the manufacturing sector. Over the medium term, BP’s Angelin project should prolong the economic momentum. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 1.6% this year, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% next year.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.31.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,76620,25019,081-  -  
GDP (USD bn)26.627.426.0-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.3-1.0-0.6-2.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.74.04.5-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.52.0-1.4-  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.33.4-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.6-4.2-5.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.140.953.557.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.813.1-1.43.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.78.41.63.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.74.73.1-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.753.254.754.75-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.416.376.426.71-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.416.396.366.63-  
Current Account (% of GDP)12.91.4-0.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.40.4-0.1-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.13.31.3-  -  
Exports (USD billion)18.714.610.8-  -  
Imports (USD billion)12.611.39.5-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)45.1-22.3-25.8-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.5-10.7-16.0-  -  
International Reserves (USD)10.211.59.99.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)14.014.3-  -  -  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.740.39 %May 21

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