Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

March 12, 2019

Economic activity declined year-on-year in Q3 on a contraction across most economic sectors, with the petroleum, petrochemicals and construction sectors leading the pack. Latest data, however, suggests the economy likely performed better in Q4 on a pick-up in LNG production. Moreover, methanol and ammonia production posted weaker declines in Q4, while the non-energy sector likely rebounded as suggested by a bounce back in cement production, a leading indicator for the construction sector. Moving to Q1, the Angelin project, BPTT’s latest gas facility located off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago, came onstream in late-February. With a production capacity of 600 million standard cubic feet per day, the operation will support the energy sector and investment.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Although growth is forecast to decelerate in 2019, natural gas output and the government’s capital program should buttress economic activity. Volatile energy prices, developments in Venezuela and high household debt are the key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 1.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4
GDP per capita (USD)	19,611	19,332	17,323	16,040	-
GDP (USD bn)	26.4	26.2	23.6	21.9	-
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.7	-0.6	-0.6	-2.3	-
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-13.6	-0.9	8.9	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	10.9	4.6	-31.5	-	-
Unemployment Rate	3.7	3.3	3.4	3.9	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.9	-2.6	-1.7	-5.3	-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	40.2	46.3	50.9	58.8	61.6
Money (annual variation in %)	8.8	13.1	-1.4	3.2	-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.6	8.5	1.5	3.1	1.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.2	5.7	4.7	3.1	1.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	2.75	3.25	4.75	4.75	4.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.41	6.37	6.42	6.71	6.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.41	6.39	6.36	6.63	6.74
Current Account (% of GDP)	20.3	14.7	4.6	-11.7	-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	5.4	4.0	1.1	-2.6	-
Trade Balance (USD billion)	7.6	6.4	2.5	-1.2	-
Exports (USD billion)	17.6	15.0	11.1	8.2	-
Imports (USD billion)	10.0	8.6	8.6	9.4	-
Exports (annual variation in %)	36.2	-14.9	-25.7	-26.1	-
Imports (annual variation in %)	-14.2	-14.4	0.5	9.5	-
International Reserves (USD)	10.2	11.5	9.9	9.5	8.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	14.5	15.3	16.7	21.8	-

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.79	0.39 %	Mar 20

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