Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

Economic activity in the energy sector ticked up in Q3 as BP’s Juniper project came online, although it remains to be seen whether spillover effects into the non-energy sector have materialized. Juniper helped propel natural gas output to a nearly two-year high in September; further downstream, liquified natural gas (LNG) output approached July’s year-to-date high. In the non-energy sector, however, prospects still appear bleak. Private sector credit growth was tepid in September, held back by muted lending to businesses. Next year’s budget is expected to address the country’s acute fiscal imbalances with a series of new taxes, royalties on natural gas output and lower fuel subsidies.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Next year, GDP growth appears poised to pick up substantially and the economy is expected to exit its years-long recession. Robust demand for natural gas is expected to support growth in the energy sector, while knock-on effects should give the non-energy sector a much-needed boost. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% next year, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)1.31.31.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,31419,76620,25019,081-  
GDP (USD bn)25.826.627.426.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.32.3-1.0-0.6-2.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.03.74.04.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.74.52.0-1.4-  
Unemployment Rate5.03.73.33.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-2.9-2.6-4.2-5.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.439.140.953.557.9
Money (annual variation in %)10.68.813.1-1.43.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.25.78.41.63.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.35.25.74.73.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.752.753.254.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.396.416.376.426.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.406.416.396.366.63
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.612.91.4-0.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.73.40.4-0.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.36.13.31.3-  
Exports (USD billion)12.918.714.610.8-  
Imports (USD billion)11.612.611.39.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.645.1-22.3-25.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)22.78.5-10.7-16.0-  
International Reserves (USD)9.410.211.59.99.5
External Debt (% of GDP)12.814.014.3-  -  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.710.39 %Dec 06

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