Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

According to recent reports from the Central Bank, the economy grew 6.7% on average in the first three quarters of 2018, and healthy private sector credit growth in the fourth quarter points to resilient economic dynamics. The construction sector accounted for the lion’s share of growth in Q1-Q3, supported by buoyant public infrastructure spending. That said, the current account deficit widened sizably in 2018: A notable drop in traditional exports was behind the contraction in foreign sales, while a surge in capital good purchases fueled by the government’s infrastructure push boosted imports. In the political arena, parliament granted the government extensive powers over political parties in late January, a move which could undermine investor confidence.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Strong public investment spending, solid credit growth and more favorable weather conditions should underpin growth this year. Higher infrastructure expenditure, however, could inflate fiscal and current account deficits, while weakening investor sentiment clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 6.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month, and 6.4% in 2020.

Tanzania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9571,031916975-  
GDP (USD bn)43.948.243.747.5-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.36.97.07.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.54.51.416.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.512.810.612.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.0-3.3-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.933.837.238.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.013.45.310.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.64.86.85.04.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.96.15.65.25.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,240
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0402,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-10.0-8.4-4.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-4.8-3.7-2.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-2.8-  
Exports (USD billion)5.35.25.35.7-  
Imports (USD billion)11.010.99.88.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-10.7-1.22.46.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-  
International Reserves (USD)4.74.44.14.35.9
External Debt (% of GDP)30.130.235.336.5-  

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,3350.0 %Feb 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 21

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