Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

The economic expansion recorded in Q2 may have lost some steam in Q3. Data for the year up to August shows that private-sector credit growth continued to weaken in annual terms compared to the year ending in July. Banks are increasingly cautious in their lending activity due to a deterioration in asset quality. Worrying news also came from the all-important mining sector. Because of the government’s crackdown and related export ban, gold miner Barrick Gold Corporation reported lower production and a net loss in Q3. Acacia Mining, a gold and copper producer, reduced capital expenditure by a third in Q3 over the same period last year. Both suggest that President Magufuli’s confrontation with multinational mining companies started to take its toll.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust next year, aided by a scaling up in public infrastructure spending and vibrant consumer spending. However, a deterioration in investor sentiment could translate into slower-than-expected private capital spending, restraining growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 6.5% in both 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2019.

Tanzania Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)44.945.846.747.748.6
GDP per capita (USD)8629571,021916976
GDP (USD bn)38.743.947.743.747.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.17.36.87.07.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.18.44.52.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.04.47.011.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-3.9-3.0-3.3-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.230.933.836.939.0
Money (annual variation in %)12.510.015.64.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.15.64.86.85.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)16.07.96.15.65.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.4615.8316.2616.1015.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5851,5871,7332,1602,181
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-11.3-11.2-9.1-4.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.8-5.0-5.3-4.0-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-5.8-5.7-4.1-2.9
Exports (USD billion)5.95.35.25.75.7
Imports (USD billion)10.311.010.99.88.6
Exports (annual variation in %)15.5-10.7-1.29.9-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.06.9-1.0-9.8-12.3
International Reserves (USD)4.14.64.54.14.3
External Debt (% of GDP)29.929.930.134.5-  

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.700.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate2,2410.0 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.50.0 %Oct 18

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