Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

November 12, 2019

The economy grew 7.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking the fastest expansion in over a year and up from the previous quarter’s 6.6% rise. A stronger jump in construction activity, coupled with a quicker expansion of manufacturing output compared to Q1, led the pick-up. Turning to the third quarter, incoming data is mixed. In the year ending September, the current account deficit widened notably as imports of capital and intermediate goods soared amid the government’s ongoing infrastructure projects. That said, exports of goods and services rose in the same period on stronger sales of gold and manufactured goods. Moreover, bank lending to the agricultural, building and construction, and mining and quarrying sectors soared in Q3, which should have stimulated business activity.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Although growth is seen softening next year, it will remain solid. On the domestic side, resilient household consumption, robust government spending and sturdy investment growth should underpin the expansion, while a pick-up in export growth will further support the economy. Uncertainty with regard to the government’s policy direction poses a risk to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2021, growth is seen largely stable at 5.9%.

Tanzania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9851,0619701,0181,061
GDP (USD bn)45.149.646.349.653.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.86.76.26.96.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.45.36.31.14.8
Investment (annual variation in %)17.57.27.116.015.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-2.9-3.5-1.5-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.032.638.538.338.0
Money (annual variation in %)17.013.45.310.43.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.64.86.85.04.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.96.15.65.25.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,240
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0402,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.1-10.1-8.6-5.5-3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-5.0-4.0-2.7-1.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-3.5-3.0
Exports (USD billion)5.35.25.35.04.5
Imports (USD billion)11.010.99.88.57.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-10.7-1.22.4-6.9-8.6
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-10.8
International Reserves (USD)4.74.44.14.35.9
External Debt (% of GDP)29.229.333.335.036.1

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.290.0 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate2,2980.0 %Sep 04
Stock Market1.00.0 %Sep 04

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