Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

July 16, 2019

Annual growth in the final quarter of 2018 remained stable at Q3’s robust 7.1%. The manufacturing and construction sectors spearheaded the overall expansion, with output growth in both sectors accelerating notably from the previous quarter. In addition, the all-important agricultural sector strengthened, although it remained relatively weak compared to other sectors. On a less positive note, activity in the hospitality and financial sectors lost considerable traction in Q4. Turning to this year, the economy appears to have lost some momentum owing to the deteriorating external backdrop. Exports shrank slightly in January–April, chiefly due to tumbling agricultural exports, which, coupled with higher imports, caused the current account deficit to jump in the period.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Growth is expected to lose some traction this year, chiefly due to slowing investment growth amid concerns over unpredictable government policies and a downbeat business environment. Robust private consumption growth, higher public spending and a rebound in exports should curb the slowdown, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 6.0% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month, and 6.0% again in 2020.

Tanzania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9851,0619701,0181,061
GDP (USD bn)45.149.646.349.653.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.86.76.26.96.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.45.36.31.14.8
Investment (annual variation in %)17.57.27.116.015.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-2.9-3.5-1.5-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.032.638.538.338.0
Money (annual variation in %)17.013.45.310.43.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.64.86.85.04.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.96.15.65.25.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,240
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0402,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.1-10.1-8.6-5.5-3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-5.0-4.0-2.7-1.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-3.6-3.0
Exports (USD billion)5.35.25.34.94.5
Imports (USD billion)11.010.99.88.57.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-10.7-1.22.4-8.5-7.0
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-10.8
International Reserves (USD)4.74.44.14.35.9
External Debt (% of GDP)29.229.333.335.036.1

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.380.0 %Jul 11
Exchange Rate2,2980.0 %Jul 11
Stock Market1.10.0 %Jul 10

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