Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy performed quite solidly in the January-November period, despite probably losing steam from last year, likely powered by domestic demand. In the year ending November, bank credit expanded robustly, especially to households, and trade and manufacturing companies. Moreover, imports increased robustly, on the back of surging purchases of capital goods associated with the government’s infrastructure push. On the flip side, the current account deficit widened notably, partly due to a sizeable drop in exports, which were weighed down by declining foreign sales of gold and manufactured goods. In the political arena, in early January the government named a new mining minister, as part of its efforts to crackdown on mining firms.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Growth should remain broadly stable this year, supported by robust government infrastructure spending. However, rising public investment will likely translate into sizeable fiscal and current account deficits, while heightened political risks could hit investor sentiment. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 6.3% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 6.4% in 2020.

Tanzania Economy Data

Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9571,031916975-  
GDP (USD bn)43.948.243.747.5-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.512.810.612.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.0-3.3-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.933.837.238.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,240
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0402,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-10.0-8.4-4.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-4.8-3.7-2.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-2.8-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)  
Exports (annual variation in %)-10.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)  

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Tanzania Facts

Exchange Rate2,3130.0 %Jan 30
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 30

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