Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economy likely remained downbeat in Q3, despite the lifting of all domestic restrictions in July. The external sector continued to suffer as exports decreased again in annual terms in September, mostly on a drop in service receipts. Meanwhile, imports also fell, suggesting that domestic demand remained frail. On the other hand, credit growth picked up pace in the same month, boosted by the Central Bank’s accommodative policy, which should have supported domestic demand somewhat. In politics, incumbent president Magufuli won a second term in the elections held on 28 October, which should lead to policy stability and a continued focus on boosting the economy after the pandemic-induced downturn. Nevertheless, opposition parties called for protests amid claims of voting irregularities, fueling tensions within the country, which could weigh on investor sentiment going forward.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Economic activity will suffer this year at the hands of the pandemic. Next year, growth is projected to accelerate as aggregate demand recovers, although many downside risks remain as potential further waves of the virus could weigh on the domestic economy, while the recent surge of cases globally threatens the recovery of foreign demand. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 5.8% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022, GDP is seen expanding 6.1%.

Tanzania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)50.051.553.154.756.3
GDP per capita (USD)9259621,0001,039-  
GDP (USD bn)46.349.653.156.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.96.87.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.31.14.86.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.116.015.815.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.037.738.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.45.310.43.811.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.04.03.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.65.25.33.53.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0016.009.007.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,1602,1812,2402,3002,298
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0402,1862,2372,2772,307
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-5.5-3.4-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-2.7-1.8-2.2-1.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-3.6-3.0-3.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)4.84.94.54.45.6
Imports (USD billion)9.88.57.68.19.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.11.0-7.4-1.525.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-9.8-14.0-10.86.811.8
International Reserves (USD)4.14.35.95.05.6
External Debt (% of GDP)33.032.734.732.7-  

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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