Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

January 23, 2018

Recent data shows that from January to November 2017 the administration heavily underspent compared to the budgeted amounts, especially on development expenditure. As tax receipts increased significantly in the same period, the fiscal deficit was lower than expected and weighed on economic momentum. As for the troubled banking system, private sector credit grew slightly in annual terms in October, although banks continued to struggle with a high stock on NPLs and slow deposit growth. However, interest rates on loans and deposits moderated further from October, suggesting financial conditions could be easing somewhat. The mining sector also continued to send worrying signals: Acacia Mining, an important mining company, announced that its production had fallen by a third in Q4, due to a ban on gold and copper exports.

Tanzania Economic Growth

After decelerating in 2017, growth should pick up this year, thanks to a ramp-up in infrastructure expenditure, sustained consumer spending and increased agricultural production. However, a weak banking system and policy uncertainty could cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 6.5% in both 2018 and 2019.

Tanzania Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)44.945.846.747.748.6
GDP per capita (USD)8629571,021916976
GDP (USD bn)38.743.947.743.747.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.17.36.87.07.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.18.44.52.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.04.47.011.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-3.9-3.0-3.3-3.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.230.933.836.939.0
Money (annual variation in %)12.510.015.64.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.15.64.86.85.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)16.07.96.15.65.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.4615.8316.2616.1015.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5851,5871,7332,1602,181
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-11.3-11.2-9.1-4.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.8-5.0-5.3-4.0-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-5.8-5.7-4.1-2.9
Exports (USD billion)5.95.35.25.75.7
Imports (USD billion)10.311.010.99.88.6
Exports (annual variation in %)15.5-10.7-1.29.9-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.06.9-1.0-9.8-12.3
International Reserves (USD)4.14.64.54.14.3
External Debt (% of GDP)29.929.930.134.5-  

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield12.750.0 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate2,2550.0 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.40.0 %Feb 08

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