Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

Available data suggest the economy picked up pace in the final quarter of 2019, after growth softened in the third quarter on waning activity in the construction sector. Merchandise exports grew strongly in Q4, largely on upbeat gold exports, while credit supply growth to the private sector gathered path amid a favorable business environment. The credit upturn was most notable in the agricultural; building and construction; transport and communication; and mining and quarrying sectors. In other news, on 13 February, the government secured a USD 1.46 billion loan from Standard Chartered Tanzania to finance the construction of 550km-long railway connecting the capital with central parts of the country, which should reduce freight costs and provide new employment opportunities.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Growth is expected to soften somewhat this year, although will remain robust nonetheless. Strong fixed investment growth, underpinned by ongoing infrastructure projects and the development of the hydrocarbon sector, and healthy household expenditure should support the economy. Key risks to the outlook include erratic policy making ahead of the upcoming elections and below potential FDI inflows. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 6.0% in 2020, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2021, GDP is also seen expanding 6.0%.

Tanzania Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)46.750.051.553.154.7
GDP per capita (USD)1,0619259621,0001,039
GDP (USD bn)49.646.349.653.156.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.96.87.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.36.31.14.86.3
Investment (annual variation in %)7.27.116.015.815.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.635.936.436.637.3
Money (annual variation in %)13.413.45.310.43.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.86.85.04.03.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.15.65.25.33.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.7516.0016.009.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7332,1602,1812,2402,300
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6652,0402,1862,2372,277
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.1-8.6-5.4-3.4-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-4.0-2.7-1.8-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.7-4.5-3.5-3.0-3.7
Exports (USD billion)5.25.35.04.54.4
Imports (USD billion)10.99.88.57.68.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.22.4-6.9-8.6-3.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.0-9.8-14.0-10.86.8
International Reserves (USD)4.44.14.35.95.0
External Debt (% of GDP)29.333.032.734.732.7

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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