Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

The economy seemingly continued to strengthen in Q2 and at the outset of Q3, after the first quarter’s expansion: Both goods imports and exports continued to grow robustly in April–August, pointing to stronger demand dynamics, although a favorable base effect flattered the readings. Moreover, despite slowing in annual terms at the tail end of Q2, personal credit growth remained robust, and accelerated in July and August, which should have supported spending. However, higher inflation in June–September could have tempered the overall improvement. Lastly, on 10 October, the government roughly outlined its plans to use two IMF loans approved last month primarily to invest in education and welfare, with other sizable amounts directed at water projects in mainland Tanzania. Meanwhile, some USD 100 million will be allocated to Zanzibar.

Tanzania Economic Growth

A surge in exports is set to drive an acceleration in economic growth in 2022 as restrictions among key trading partners are lifted. Additionally, private and capital spending should buttress overall growth. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the pandemic and the sizable fiscal deficit brought about by the government’s large-scale infrastructure projects cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 5.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.9% in 2023.

Tanzania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)50.051.553.154.756.3
GDP per capita (USD)9259621,0001,039-  
GDP (USD bn)46.349.653.156.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.96.87.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.31.14.86.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.116.015.815.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.037.738.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.45.310.43.811.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.04.03.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.65.25.33.53.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0016.009.007.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,1602,1812,2402,3002,298
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0402,1862,2372,2772,307
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-5.5-3.4-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-2.7-1.8-2.2-1.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-3.6-3.0-3.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)4.84.94.54.45.6
Imports (USD billion)9.88.57.68.19.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.11.0-7.4-1.525.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-9.8-14.0-10.86.811.8
International Reserves (USD)4.14.35.95.05.6
External Debt (% of GDP)33.032.734.732.7-  

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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