Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

The fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be taking its toll on the economy in the second quarter, after growth likely remained robust in the first quarter of the year. Following healthy export growth in Q1, the external sector will be suffering in Q2, as the pandemic has extinguished foreign demand for merchandise exports while tourist arrivals all but dried up amid travel restrictions and widespread lockdowns. Domestic activity seems to have held up better thus far this year, as the government refused to implement a statewide lockdown, although investment activity and household spending are likely to falter in Q2 amid souring sentiment. Against this backdrop, the government is reportedly considering fiscal measures to prop up the economy, after the Central Bank eased its monetary policy on 12 May.

Tanzania Economic Growth

The pandemic will batter activity this year, although the economy is expected to avoid recession, in contrast to most of the region’s other economies. Sliding global demand and travel restrictions will hamper investment, tourism and trade, while lockdown measures on the domestic front are seen constraining household spending. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 2.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2021, GDP is seen expanding 6.1%.

Tanzania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)50.051.553.154.756.3
GDP per capita (USD)9259621,0001,039-  
GDP (USD bn)46.349.653.156.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.96.87.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.31.14.86.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.116.015.815.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.037.738.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.45.310.43.811.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.04.03.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.65.25.33.53.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0016.009.007.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,1602,1812,2402,3002,298
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0402,1862,2372,2772,307
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-5.5-3.4-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-2.7-1.8-2.2-1.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-3.6-3.0-3.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)4.84.94.54.45.6
Imports (USD billion)9.88.57.68.19.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.11.0-7.4-1.525.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-9.8-14.0-10.86.811.8
International Reserves (USD)4.14.35.95.05.6
External Debt (% of GDP)33.032.734.732.7-  

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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