Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

GDP growth softened to 4.9% in annual terms in Q4 2021 (Q3: +5.2% yoy) as mining and quarrying activity expanded at a more moderate pace. The result brought overall growth for 2021 to 4.9%. At the outset of 2022, dynamics should have firmed further. Personal credit growth accelerated in January–February, which likely contributed to the robust annual growth in merchandise imports. That said, elevated prices for key commodities could have capped the overall improvement. In other news, authorities are in talks with the IMF over a USD 700 million loan, which the government intends to use to reduce debt distress risks. The government is also seeking low-cost concessional loans from China and India for various projects. Moreover, elevated energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions have unlocked investment projects for Tanzania, which now expects an extra USD 10 billion to be poured into its liquified gas sector.

Tanzania Economic Growth

The economy will grow at a brisker pace this year, as domestic demand will strengthen thanks to large infrastructure projects that should bolster employment levels and spending in turn. Moreover, promising political and policy developments bode well for future reforms. That said, elevated debt stocks, weather-related shocks and supply disruptions are risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 5.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.0% in 2023.

Tanzania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)50.051.553.154.756.3
GDP per capita (USD)9259621,0001,039-  
GDP (USD bn)46.349.653.156.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.96.87.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.31.14.86.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.116.015.815.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.037.738.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.45.310.43.811.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.04.03.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.65.25.33.53.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0016.009.007.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,1602,1812,2402,3002,298
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0402,1862,2372,2772,307
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-5.5-3.4-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-2.7-1.8-2.2-1.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-3.6-3.0-3.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)4.84.94.54.45.6
Imports (USD billion)9.88.57.68.19.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.11.0-7.4-1.525.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-9.8-14.0-10.86.811.8
International Reserves (USD)4.14.35.95.05.6
External Debt (% of GDP)33.032.734.732.7-  

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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