Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

Following the strong Q2 performance thanks to a surging manufacturing sector, recent indicators are mixed. In August, the manufacturing and electronics PMIs increased on faster expansions in new orders, exports and factory output, while year-on-year growth in tourist arrivals was robust in July. However, retail sales were limp in the same month, even when excluding the volatile motor vehicles sub-sector. In addition, in August non-oil domestic export growth dimmed, while private home sales plummeted following recent property curbs. On the political scene, in early September Singapore and Malaysia agreed to postpone the high-speed rail link between the two countries by two years. This marks a reversal from the new Malaysian government’s initial intention of scrapping the project altogether, boding well for relations with Singapore’s closest neighbor and key trading partner.

Singapore Economic Growth

Year-on-year growth is set to be slower in the quarters ahead than in recent periods, due a less supportive base effect and slower manufacturing growth. However, the economy will likely be supported by a more expansionary fiscal stance and higher wages, which should boost private consumption. Downside risks stem largely from increasing global trade tensions, which could have a significant effect on Singapore’s highly open economy. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 3.2% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.

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Singapore Facts

Bond Yield2.531.39 %Sep 20
Exchange Rate1.36-0.01 %Sep 20
Stock Market3,1800.18 %Sep 20

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