Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

July 21, 2020

Activity contracted sharply in the second quarter, plunging the economy into recession following the first quarter’s mild downturn. Circuit breaker policies enacted in early April to stem the spread of the viral outbreak wrought havoc on production, with the services industry suffering from curtailed domestic demand—retail sales plummeted in April–May—and drastically reduced visitor numbers. However, an easing of lockdown conditions at the start of June gives cause for cautious optimism, with June’s PMI indicating a marked slowing in the private sector downturn and high-frequency data pointing to an uptick in business activity during June and into Q3. Meanwhile, the incumbent People’s Action Party (PAP) has formed a new government following elections held on 10 July. PAP won almost 90% of available seats, ensuring a continuation of power stretching back to 1959, and no major changes to economic policy are expected.

Singapore Economic Growth

This year, the economy is set to contract sharply as the pandemic inhibits consumption and heightened uncertainty delays fixed investment. Markedly increased government spending should soften the downturn somewhat, although uncertainty regarding the evolution of the pandemic clouds the outlook amid stubbornly high global infection rates. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to contract 5.7% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month, and to grow 5.3% in 2021.

Singapore Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.55.65.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)55,61556,78860,72265,95365,390
GDP (USD bn)308318341372371
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.03.24.33.40.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.23.23.14.23.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.01.54.2-3.4-0.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.13.710.47.0-1.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.11.01.4-1.1-3.4
Unemployment Rate1.92.12.22.12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.42.30.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)99.5105106109126
Money (annual variation in %)1.58.03.23.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.20.40.50.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.50.60.40.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-15.3-6.97.06.4-3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.88-  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-14.3-0.118.1-9.85.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.451.341.361.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.371.381.381.351.36
Current Account (% of GDP)18.717.616.317.217.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)57.656.255.664.163.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)92.590.897.010497.6
Exports (USD billion)396374413459439
Imports (USD billion)304283316355342
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.3-5.610.311.2-4.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.8-6.711.412.6-3.8
International Reserves (USD)248247280288279
External Debt (% of GDP)429437420414418

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Singapore Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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