Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

An advanced estimate shows that the economy cooled further in the first quarter of this year, expanding at a slower-than-expected pace. A broad-based deceleration was behind the slowdown, with the manufacturing sector the main cause of the weaker reading. Surging Covid-19 cases at the outset of the year plus the effect of the war in Ukraine on energy prices and supply chains likely took a further toll. Both the electronics and manufacturing PMI readings dipped further in March, only narrowly remaining in expansionary terrain. Meanwhile, growth of non-oil domestic exports slowed for the fourth consecutive month in March, likely owing to China’s zero-Covid stance, potentially indicating a slowing external sector. That said, the government eased Covid-19 restrictions in late March amid falling new infections, which should provide some support to activity into the second quarter.

Singapore Economic Growth

The economy should expand at a softer albeit still-robust pace this year, amid a waning low base effect. Normalizations in fixed investment growth and global trade will be behind the softer increase, while private consumption should expand strongly. Pandemic-related uncertainty, China’s Covid-19 policy and high energy prices pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 3.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and to grow 3.1% in 2023.

Singapore Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.55.65.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)55,61556,78860,72265,95365,390
GDP (USD bn)308318341372371
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.03.24.33.40.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.23.23.14.23.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.01.54.2-3.4-0.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.13.710.47.0-1.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.11.01.4-1.1-3.4
Unemployment Rate1.92.12.22.12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.42.30.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)99.5105106109126
Money (annual variation in %)1.58.03.23.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.20.40.50.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.50.60.40.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-15.3-6.97.06.4-3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.88-  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-14.3-0.118.1-9.85.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.451.341.361.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.371.381.381.351.36
Current Account (% of GDP)18.717.616.317.217.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)57.656.255.664.163.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)92.590.897.010497.6
Exports (USD billion)396374413459439
Imports (USD billion)304283316355342
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.3-5.610.311.2-4.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.8-6.711.412.6-3.8
International Reserves (USD)248247280288279
External Debt (% of GDP)429437420414418

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Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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