Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economic picture is one of gradual recovery, following advanced estimates indicating a significant slowing in the pace of contraction in the third quarter. The easing of circuit breaker policies throughout the quarter saw industrial output rebound strongly, while non-oil exports declined at a softer pace in the same period. Turning to Q4, the continued reopening of the economy and the low level of new daily Covid-19 cases should support business activity and consumer spending. Meanwhile, both the manufacturing and electronics PMIs indicated a continued improvement in conditions within their respective sectors in October. However, the reimposition of mobility restrictions in key international markets bodes ill for the services sector in Q4, particularly for businesses involved in tourism activities, amid markedly reduced visitor arrivals.

Singapore Economic Growth

Next year, the economy should recover strongly from the sharp contraction in 2020. Domestic demand is set to drive the upturn, with significant growth in consumer and capital spending more than offsetting lower government consumption growth. A recovery in key regional trading partners should benefit the external sector, although the ongoing pandemic clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 5.6% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and to grow 3.3% in 2022.

Singapore Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.55.65.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)55,61556,78860,72265,95365,390
GDP (USD bn)308318341372371
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.03.24.33.40.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.23.23.14.23.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.01.54.2-3.4-0.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.13.710.47.0-1.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.11.01.4-1.1-3.4
Unemployment Rate1.92.12.22.12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.42.30.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)99.5105106109126
Money (annual variation in %)1.58.03.23.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.20.40.50.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.50.60.40.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-15.3-6.97.06.4-3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.88-  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-14.3-0.118.1-9.85.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.451.341.361.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.371.381.381.351.36
Current Account (% of GDP)18.717.616.317.217.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)57.656.255.664.163.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)92.590.897.010497.6
Exports (USD billion)396374413459439
Imports (USD billion)304283316355342
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.3-5.610.311.2-4.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.8-6.711.412.6-3.8
International Reserves (USD)248247280288279
External Debt (% of GDP)429437420414418

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Singapore Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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