Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Data for the third and fourth quarters suggests that economic growth has decelerated in the second half of the year. The manufacturing PMI declined to an over one-year low in October, indicating that trade protectionism and slower growth in China is dragging on demand. The electronics PMI also fell, which coupled with the tenth consecutive decline in electronics exports in September highlights the electronics sector’s feeble performance in 2018. On a more positive note, pharmaceutical exports buttressed the non-oil export headline trade print in September. On the political scene, seven countries—including Singapore—have officially signed off on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), enabling the agreement to take effect by the end of 2018. The news bodes well for Singapore, as the deal should help deepen trade ties with its Pacific Rim members.

Singapore Economic Growth

Although momentum is expected to wane in 2019 as the contribution from the manufacturing sector weakens, growth should stay robust thanks to strong domestic demand. However, given trade’s importance to the economy, a prolonged dispute between the U.S. and China or a more notable slowdown in China could weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 2.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2020.

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Singapore Facts

Bond Yield2.451.39 %Nov 15
Exchange Rate1.38-0.01 %Nov 15
Stock Market3,0550.18 %Nov 15

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