Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

October 20, 2020

The economy contracted at a significantly slower pace in Q3 than in Q2, according to advanced estimates, pointing to a nascent recovery in activity. The easing of circuit breaker policies and the phased reopening of the economy throughout Q3 lifted some pressure off the construction and services sectors. Meanwhile, stronger export demand for electronics saw growth return in the manufacturing sector, corroborated by the electronics PMI hitting the highest level in two years in September and strong non-oil export growth across July–September. Moving into Q4, the continued reopening of the economy and low number of new daily Covid-19 cases should further support the recovery: High frequency data indicates that retail activity has returned close to its pre-pandemic levels in mid-October, boding well for an uptick in consumer spending in the final quarter of the year.

Singapore Economic Growth

In 2021, GDP is set to rebound strongly from the steep contraction projected for 2020. Improving household and capital spending is likely to drive a surge in domestic demand, while a recovery in key regional trading partners should bolster the external sector. However, uncertainty around the ongoing development of the pandemic clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 5.4% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month, and to grow 3.1% in 2022.

Singapore Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.55.65.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)55,61556,78860,72265,95365,390
GDP (USD bn)308318341372371
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.03.24.33.40.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.23.23.14.23.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.01.54.2-3.4-0.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.13.710.47.0-1.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.11.01.4-1.1-3.4
Unemployment Rate1.92.12.22.12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.42.30.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)99.5105106109126
Money (annual variation in %)1.58.03.23.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.20.40.50.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.50.60.40.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-15.3-6.97.06.4-3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.88-  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-14.3-0.118.1-9.85.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.451.341.361.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.371.381.381.351.36
Current Account (% of GDP)18.717.616.317.217.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)57.656.255.664.163.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)92.590.897.010497.6
Exports (USD billion)396374413459439
Imports (USD billion)304283316355342
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.3-5.610.311.2-4.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.8-6.711.412.6-3.8
International Reserves (USD)248247280288279
External Debt (% of GDP)429437420414418

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Singapore Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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