Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

April 28, 2020

The economy shrank at the sharpest rate in over a decade in the first quarter of this year. A drying up of foreign demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic, coupled with government-imposed restrictions domestically and abroad, caused the manufacturing and construction sectors to contract in Q1. Highlighting the extent of the damage, the country’s electronics and manufacturing PMIs fell to their lowest levels since the global financial crisis in March. To mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic, the government announced new fiscal stimulus measures in mid-March and early April, on top of earlier measures announced in February. The total amount of fiscal stimulus now reaches roughly SGD 59.9 billion. All citizens will receive cash handouts, with additional financial support for low-income families and unemployed. Firms will also be able to receive wage subsidies and loans for capital.

Singapore Economic Growth

The Covid-19 pandemic will drive the economy into a contraction this year, as it will rock domestic and external activity by depressing trade, manufacturing and tourism. While fiscal stimulus should cushion the impact of the fallout somewhat, it will not be able to ward off a recession. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to contract 4.5% in 2020, which is down 4.3 percentage points from last month, and to grow 4.8% in 2021.

Singapore Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)5.55.55.65.65.6
GDP per capita (USD)57,66955,61556,78860,72265,953
GDP (USD bn)315308318341372
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.93.03.24.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.65.23.23.04.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.22.01.54.2-3.4
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)2.7-5.13.710.47.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.34.61.41.3-1.2
Unemployment Rate2.01.92.12.22.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.1-1.01.42.30.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)97.199.5105106109
Money (annual variation in %)3.31.58.03.23.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.1-0.60.20.40.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.0-0.5-0.50.60.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.3-15.3-6.97.06.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.380.88-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)6.2-14.3-0.118.1-9.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.331.421.451.341.36
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.271.371.381.381.35
Current Account (% of GDP)17.918.717.716.317.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)56.557.656.255.664.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)86.792.690.897.4104
Exports (USD billion)451396375414460
Imports (USD billion)364304284317356
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.6-12.0-5.510.511.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.1-16.5-6.611.612.6
International Reserves (USD)257248247280288
External Debt (% of GDP)426416413431404

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Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
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