Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

August 24, 2021

The economy grew more than previously expected in Q2, according to revised estimates, driven by strong growth in a manufacturing sector benefiting from healthy global demand for electronics. Turning to Q3, short-term data continues to point to a robust recovery, albeit with less of a favorable base effect acting as a tailwind to activity. In July, PMI readings for both the manufacturing and electronics sectors moved further into expansionary territory on the back of solid demand dynamics, while non-oil export growth remained in double digits for the second month running. More recently, authorities have begun to gradually ease restrictions that were reimposed in mid-July to curb rising Covid-19 cases, and they are also planning a pilot scheme to allow fully vaccinated business travelers to enter the country. Combined with a region-leading vaccination campaign, the moves bode well for activity in the remainder of Q3.

Singapore Economic Growth

This year, GDP is forecast to grow at the fastest rate in a decade following 2020’s record downturn. Domestically, consumer and capital spending growth will boost demand, while strengthening global trade levels should benefit exports. However, travel restrictions in key international markets and their impact on tourism figures continue to cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 6.3% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and to grow 4.1% in 2022.

Singapore Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.55.65.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)55,61556,78860,72265,95365,390
GDP (USD bn)308318341372371
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.03.24.33.40.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.23.23.14.23.7
Investment (annual variation in %)2.01.54.2-3.4-0.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.13.710.47.0-1.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.11.01.4-1.1-3.4
Unemployment Rate1.92.12.22.12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.42.30.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)99.5105106109126
Money (annual variation in %)1.58.03.23.95.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.60.20.40.50.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.50.60.40.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-15.3-6.97.06.4-3.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.88-  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-14.3-0.118.1-9.85.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.421.451.341.361.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.371.381.381.351.36
Current Account (% of GDP)18.717.616.317.217.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)57.656.255.664.163.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)92.590.897.010497.6
Exports (USD billion)396374413459439
Imports (USD billion)304283316355342
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.3-5.610.311.2-4.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.8-6.711.412.6-3.8
International Reserves (USD)248247280288279
External Debt (% of GDP)429437420414418

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Singapore Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.741.39 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %Jan 01

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