Pakistan Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

The economy had a mixed start to FY 2019, which began in July. In the first quarter, the current account deficit narrowed slightly from the same period in FY 2018. This was due to higher remittance inflows, particularly from the United States, the United Kingdom and the Middle East. These inflows helped to outweigh a sharp rise in the import bill, which itself was stoked by higher oil prices. However, the rupee has lost significant value against the USD since the first quarter ended, hitting multi-year lows in October, which could further inflate import costs going forward. More positively, in recent weeks Saudi Arabia and China have both agreed to provide financial support to Pakistan.

Pakistan Economic Growth

This fiscal year, a slowdown is expected as the country grapples with economic imbalances, while both fiscal and monetary policy tightening take hold. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 4.6% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.4% in FY 2020.

Pakistan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	183	186	190	194	197
GDP per capita (USD)	1,267	1,314	1,428	1,466	1,547
GDP (USD bn)	231	245	271	284	305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.7	4.1	4.1	4.6	5.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.1	5.6	2.9	7.6	8.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	2.6	2.5	15.8	7.5	10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	0.8	4.5	5.2	5.7	5.0
Unemployment Rate	6.0	6.0	5.9	6.0	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-8.2	-5.5	-5.3	-4.6	-5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	62.6	62.7	61.8	65.5	65.0
Money (annual variation in %)	16.9	12.6	12.8	14.5	13.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.9	8.2	3.2	3.2	3.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	7.4	8.6	4.6	2.9	4.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)	9.00	10.00	6.50	5.75	5.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	99.6	98.68	101.9	104.7	104.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	96.82	102.9	101.4	104.3	104.8
Current Account (% of GDP)	-1.1	-1.3	-1.0	-1.7	-4.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-2.5	-3.1	-2.8	-4.9	-12.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-15.4	-16.6	-17.2	-18.4	-26.7
Exports (USD billion)	24.8	25.1	24.1	22.0	22.0
Imports (USD billion)	40.2	41.7	41.3	40.4	48.7
Exports (annual variation in %)	0.3	1.1	-3.9	-8.8	0.1
Imports (annual variation in %)	-0.5	3.8	-0.9	-2.3	20.6
International Reserves (USD)	8.5	11.8	16.0	20.9	18.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	25.0	25.3	22.7	24.5	26.2

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Pakistan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	12.70	0.0 %	Dec 12
Exchange Rate	139.9	-0.05 %	Dec 12

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