Pakistan Economic Outlook
August 25, 2020A provisional GDP estimate for FY 2020 (July–June), using data from the first three quarters and adjusted for the Covid-19 fallout, pointed to a slight contraction in output, as lockdown measures weighed heavily on activity in the final quarter. Industrial production fell by over a quarter in Q4 FY 2020, while exports plummeted by nearly a third in the same period. Turning to Q1 FY 2021, economic activity should be gaining some momentum after most nationwide lockdown measures were eased from late May. In July, exports rebounded on the back of growth in shipments of textiles and manufactured food products, while remittances were solid. In other news, Moody’s affirmed its B3 rating with a stable outlook in early August, citing macroprudential policies implemented ahead of the crisis which should contain economic vulnerabilities induced by the pandemic.
Pakistan Economic GrowthThe economy should recover in FY 2021 as the pandemic recedes and domestic demand gradually rebounds. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the virus domestically and the pace of the revival in external demand for Pakistani products are key risks. Mounting debt and geopolitical tensions further cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 1.3% in FY 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.1% in FY 2022.
Pakistan Economy Data
5 years of Pakistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||11.00||0.0 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||154.9||-0.05 %||Jan 01|
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