Pakistan Economic Forecast

Pakistan Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

Amid the changing political calculus, the economy remains poised for an upbeat performance this fiscal year. Exports grew at a six-year high in the first three months of FY 2018 (through September), although the relatively overvalued rupee almost certainly hindered even stronger growth. Furthermore, imports in the same period soared on improved economic activity and consumption dynamics, which in turn benefitted from the rapid growth of private sector lending. That said, remittances from abroad have recorded slow growth thus far this fiscal year, and the current account deficit more than doubled in the July–September period from a year earlier.

Pakistan Economic Growth

A robust recovery of the agricultural sector and the ongoing expansion of the industrial sector are expected to underpin economic growth this fiscal year and next. Moreover, CPEC-related investment is expected to support regional trade in the years to come. Clouding the outlook is political uncertainty, which could worsen in the run-up to next year’s elections. Our analysts expect GDP to grow 5.0% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% in FY 2019.

Pakistan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)181184186190194
GDP per capita (USD)1,2411,2601,3141,4281,466
GDP (USD bn)224231245271284
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.74.14.04.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.02.15.63.27.0
Investment (annual variation in %)2.42.62.514.15.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.60.64.75.25.8
Unemployment Rate6.06.06.05.96.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.8-8.2-5.5-5.3-4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)64.565.265.164.667.8
Money (annual variation in %)13.416.612.812.814.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.35.98.23.23.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.07.48.64.62.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.009.0010.007.006.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)94.6599.698.68101.9104.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)89.3796.82102.9101.4104.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-1.1-1.3-1.0-1.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-2.5-3.1-2.7-3.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-15.7-15.4-16.6-17.2-18.4
Exports (USD billion)24.724.825.124.122.0
Imports (USD billion)40.440.241.741.340.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.50.31.1-3.9-8.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.2-0.53.8-0.9-2.3
International Reserves (USD)14.18.511.816.020.9
External Debt (% of GDP)28.125.025.322.724.5

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Pakistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.930.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate105.4-0.05 %Dec 06

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