Pakistan Economic Outlook
September 21, 2021The economy expanded robustly in fiscal year 2021 (July 2020–June 2021), due to stronger domestic demand and a healthy external sector. However, economic momentum has seemingly lost some steam in Q1 FY 2022 (July–September 2021), as a third wave of Covid-19 has likely hampered economic sentiment and weighed on activity—amid some partial lockdowns in place since July. Moreover, worker remittances and export growth averaged markedly lower in July–August relative to the previous quarter, boding poorly for overall GDP. Furthermore, industrial production posted the worst year-on-year result since June 2020 in July, as large-scale manufacturing growth slowed notably. On a positive note, affordable housing loans under the government’s flagship markup subsidy scheme generated a surge in lending activity in July–August, and it should have continued to gain momentum in September.
Pakistan Economic GrowthGDP growth is set to ease in FY 2022 (July 2021–June 2022) following FY 2021’s rebound. Fixed investment and private consumption growth should slow as ongoing pandemic-related concerns and a moderating global economic recovery weigh on domestic demand. Downside risks stem from new variants of the virus, rising debt and geopolitical tensions. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 4.0% in FY 2022, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. In FY 2023, our panel forecasts GDP growth of 4.5%.
Pakistan Economy Data
5 years of Pakistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||11.00||0.0 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||154.9||-0.05 %||Jan 01|
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