Pakistan Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy likely recovered in Q1 of this fiscal year—which began in July 2020—after GDP growth slowed significantly in FY 2020 (July 2019–June 2020) due to lockdown measures imposed at the tail end of the year. In July–September, industrial production rebounded, mainly due to healthier manufacturing activity. Moreover, average remittances growth surged in the quarter, which, coupled with easing containment measures, should have boosted private spending. Turning to Q2 (October–December) economic conditions are likely continuing to improve. In October, merchandise exports expanded modestly year-on-year, while imports continued to contract, leading to a notable improvement in the trade deficit. However, an uptick in new Covid-19 cases prompted a snap-back of some restrictions in mid-November, which should be weighing on activity somewhat; that said, a full lockdown is unlikely in the coming months.
Pakistan Economic GrowthThe economy should rebound in FY 2021 as the impact of the pandemic gradually fades and domestic demand recovers. Moreover, structural reforms should boost investment, while foreign demand is expected to pick up in tandem with the global economic recovery. However, mounting debt, uncertainty over the evolution of the virus and geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 1.5% in FY 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in FY 2022.
Pakistan Economy Data
5 years of Pakistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||11.00||0.0 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||154.9||-0.05 %||Jan 01|
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