Pakistan Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

The economy is showing signs of stabilization. The large current account deficit narrowed slightly in the first half of the fiscal year, which runs through June, while the weakening of the rupee has slowed substantially in recent months. Nevertheless, S&P Global Ratings lowered its credit rating for Pakistan on 4 February to B- from B, partly due to the slow negotiations between the cash-strapped government and the IMF on a financial support deal. On 12 February, however, the finance minister said the two sides were “very close” to an agreement, while a Saudi state visit to Pakistan in on 17 February resulted in USD 20 billion of new investment.

Pakistan Economic Growth

Growth is set to slow this fiscal year as Pakistan grapples with economic imbalances. Our panelists see growth of 4.3% in FY 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in FY 2020.

Pakistan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	183	186	190	194	197
GDP per capita (USD)	1,267	1,314	1,428	1,466	1,547
GDP (USD bn)	231	245	271	284	305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.7	4.1	4.1	4.6	5.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.1	5.6	2.9	7.6	8.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	2.6	2.5	15.8	7.5	10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	0.8	4.5	5.2	5.7	5.0
Unemployment Rate	6.0	6.0	5.9	6.0	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-8.2	-5.5	-5.3	-4.6	-5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	62.6	62.7	61.8	65.5	65.0
Money (annual variation in %)	16.9	12.6	12.8	14.5	13.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.9	8.2	3.2	3.2	3.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	7.4	8.6	4.6	2.9	4.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	99.6	98.68	101.9	104.7	104.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	9.00	10.00	6.50	5.75	5.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	96.82	102.9	101.4	104.3	104.8
Current Account (% of GDP)	-1.1	-1.3	-1.0	-1.7	-4.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-2.5	-3.1	-2.8	-4.9	-12.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-15.4	-16.6	-17.2	-18.4	-26.7
Exports (USD billion)	24.8	25.1	24.1	22.0	22.0
Imports (USD billion)	40.2	41.7	41.3	40.4	48.7
Exports (annual variation in %)	0.3	1.1	-3.9	-8.8	0.1
Imports (annual variation in %)	-0.5	3.8	-0.9	-2.3	20.6
International Reserves (USD)	8.5	11.8	16.0	20.9	18.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	25.0	25.3	22.7	24.5	26.2

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Pakistan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	13.11	0.0 %	Mar 11
Exchange Rate	139.7	-0.05 %	Mar 11

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