Pakistan Economic Outlook
June 18, 2019The economy remains on feeble footing. The rupee fell to record lows after the announcement of the IMF’s bailout package in May, which was accompanied by a push from the Fund for the Central Bank to adopt a more market-determined exchange rate. Moreover, merchandise exports contracted in March and April, while the latest data suggests the agricultural and industrial sectors continue to struggle. However, more positively, the current account deficit markedly improved in July 2018–April 2019. On the fiscal front, the government unveiled its FY 2020 budget on 11 June, which presented an ambitious revenue target, in an effort to shore up fiscal stability, while featuring other IMF-friendly policy adjustments, including the withdrawal of tax incentives for export sectors. The government also slashed its growth estimate for FY 2020 to the slowest rate since the global financial crisis.
Pakistan Economic GrowthEconomic growth is projected to be lethargic in the fiscal year ending June 2020. A more austere fiscal stance and economic reforms to narrow gaping fiscal and current account deficits will likely hamper short-term growth prospects. Low international reserves, ballooning public debt and tensions with neighboring India present downside risks to the outlook. Our panelists see growth of 3.8% in FY 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.7% in FY 2021.
Pakistan Economy Data
5 years of Pakistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||14.09||0.0 %||Jul 11|
|Exchange Rate||158.8||-0.05 %||Jul 11|
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