Morocco Economic Forecast
October 5, 2021The country saw steep economic growth in Q2, although this was largely driven by a base effect: Underlying activity likely remained burdened by Covid-19 restrictions, which, although loosened in May, remained tough through the quarter. Turning to Q3, Covid-19 cases increased sharply in July and restrictions were tightened in August, although the accelerating vaccination program sounded a positive note as cases began to fall in September, boding well for activity in Q4. Less positively, it was announced that the Maghreb gas pipeline will be closed from 31 October, reducing fuel supply, amid a diplomatic spat with Algeria. In other news, the ruling Islamist party lost more seats than expected in the parliamentary elections held on 8 September. A three-party coalition with a pro-business and pro-monarchy stance took its place, pledging more fiscal stimulus to boost growth in the next budget.
Morocco Economic GrowthAmid a relatively successful vaccination campaign, growth should be one of the region’s highest this year. In 2022, activity should be more muted as the base effect fades. Dispute with Algeria and international backlash regarding ongoing conflict in the Western Sahara pose downside risks, with an EU court annulling all EU-Morocco trade and fisheries deals in September. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 5.1% in 2021 and to grow 3.5% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Morocco Economy Data
5 years of Morocco economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.02||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||9.56||-0.29 %||Dec 31|
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