Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

November 28, 2017

Upbeat trade data for Q3 suggests that GDP growth was again buoyant in the quarter after accelerating notably in the first half of the year. Year-to-date exports through September were robust as both phosphate and agricultural shipments picked up, the latter reflecting the agricultural sector’s strong recovery this year. The year-to-date trade deficit widened, however, on higher imported energy costs. Industrial output, which slowed in Q2, appeared to lose ground in both August and September. Optimistically, Morocco’s nascent aerospace and automotive industries appear to be thriving this year on new investment.

Morocco Economic Growth

A recovery in the agricultural sector has brightened near-term economic prospects, and should support household spending both this year and next. In the medium term, tourism inflows are expected to help narrow the current account deficit, while fiscal tightening bodes well for foreign investment. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.8% both next year, down 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and in 2019.

Morocco Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)32.532.933.233.533.8
GDP per capita (USD)2,9903,1933,3993,013-  
GDP (USD bn)97.2105113101-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.04.52.64.51.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.22.43.52.42.6
Investment (annual variation in %)3.6-0.5-2.11.53.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.91.31.64.5
Unemployment Rate9.09.29.99.69.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.8-5.1-4.7-4.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)58.261.763.564.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)4.32.75.07.06.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.60.41.60.61.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.31.90.41.61.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.002.502.502.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.468.169.069.9210.12
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.638.418.419.759.81
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.8-7.6-5.7-1.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.3-7.9-6.4-1.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-23.4-23.6-21.2-14.7-17.8
Exports (USD billion)21.422.020.518.718.9
Imports (USD billion)44.845.641.733.436.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.92.9-7.0-8.91.3
Imports (annual variation in %)1.41.8-8.7-19.89.8
International Reserves (USD)17.319.020.523.025.3
External Debt (% of GDP)34.937.938.943.4-  

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Morocco Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.680.0 %Sep 30
Exchange Rate9.45-0.29 %Dec 06
Stock Market12,284-0.23 %Dec 06

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