Morocco Economic Forecast

July 2, 2019

Growth decelerated marginally in the first quarter, due largely to a downturn in agriculture following an exceptional harvest last year. On the positive side, investment rebounded from Q4’s slight dip, private consumption remained robust and government spending accelerated. Turning to Q2, solid dynamics in industrial activities should have supported momentum although the agricultural sector will likely have detracted from growth again. Notably, strong phosphate demand should have buttressed the mining and chemical sectors, while activity in the energy, construction and environmental sectors also appear to have been robust. On 19 June, Morocco secured USD 237 million to fund a highway project as well as the expansion of a hydroelectric dam.

Morocco Economic Growth

Growth should slightly slow this year, as a mediocre harvest will weigh on the agricultural sector. On the other hand, strong tourism and solid private consumption will power momentum, while reforms to attract FDI in key sectors should support investment. Weak activity in the Eurozone remains a main downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Morocco Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	33.4	33.8	34.1	34.5	34.9
GDP per capita (USD)	3,143	3,346	2,975	2,995	3,143
GDP (USD bn)	105	113	102	103	110
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.5	2.7	4.5	1.1	4.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-	-	-	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	-0.5	-1.3	0.2	8.8	-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	0.9	1.3	1.6	2.5	2.1
Unemployment Rate	9.2	9.7	9.6	9.9	10.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.1	-4.7	-4.2	-4.3	-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	61.8	63.3	63.7	64.9	65.1
Money (annual variation in %)	2.7	5.0	7.0	6.3	7.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.4	1.6	0.6	1.8	1.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.9	0.4	1.6	1.6	0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	2.50	2.50	2.25	2.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	8.16	9.06	9.92	10.12	9.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	8.41	8.41	9.75	9.81	9.71
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.9	-5.8	-2.1	-4.1	-3.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-8.2	-6.6	-2.2	-4.2	-3.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-20.5	-21.0	-14.7	-17.6	-18.0
Exports (USD billion)	22.0	19.9	18.6	19.1	21.5
Imports (USD billion)	42.5	40.9	33.3	36.7	39.5
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.5	-9.2	-6.5	2.3	12.6
Imports (annual variation in %)	2.5	-3.7	-18.5	10.0	7.6
International Reserves (USD)	18.8	20.2	22.7	25.0	26.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	37.9	38.8	43.1	45.8	47.7

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Morocco Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	3.38	0.0 %	Jun 30
Exchange Rate	9.57	-0.29 %	Jul 11
Stock Market	11,272	-0.23 %	Jul 11

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