Morocco Economic Forecast

September 8, 2020

The economy is estimated to have contracted around 14% in the second quarter (Q1: 0.1% year-on-year), as the country felt the full impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Lockdown measures enacted in mid-March will have severely hampered household spending in the quarter amid a spike in the unemployment rate, with consumer confidence deteriorating markedly in tandem. Furthermore, merchandise exports plunged by around 25% in Q2 as disrupted supply chains and faltering demand for automobiles and textiles suppressed the sector, while the suspension of all international flights will have hammered the tourism industry. Turning to Q3, the recent jump in infections is a cause for concern, with authorities considering an economically debilitating second lockdown in order to contain the health crisis. A decision is due to be made on 10 September.

Morocco Economic Growth

This year, the economy is set to shrink notably as faltering private consumption and fixed investment weigh on domestic demand. The external sector will be hampered by slack foreign demand for key exports and travel restrictions affecting the all-important tourism sector. An uptick in government spending should soften the downturn somewhat. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 4.5% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 4.3% in 2021.

Morocco Economy Data

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Population (million)	34.1	34.5	34.9	35.2	35.6
GDP per capita (USD)	2,975	3,003	3,159	3,318	3,364
GDP (USD bn)	102	104	110	117	120
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.5	1.1	4.2	3.1	2.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-	-	-	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	0.2	8.8	-0.2	1.2	1.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.8	0.6	3.6	3.0	3.5
Unemployment Rate	9.6	9.9	10.2	9.7	9.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-4.2	-4.3	-3.6	-3.7	-3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)	63.7	64.9	65.1	65.2	66.2
Money (annual variation in %)	7.0	6.3	7.9	5.9	6.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.6	1.8	1.9	0.1	1.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.6	1.6	0.8	2.0	0.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)	2.50	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	9.92	10.12	9.35	9.57	9.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	9.75	9.81	9.71	9.39	9.62
Current Account (% of GDP)	-2.1	-4.0	-3.4	-5.3	-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-2.2	-4.2	-3.7	-6.2	-4.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-14.7	-17.6	-18.0	-20.3	-20.0
Exports (USD billion)	18.6	19.1	21.5	24.6	24.7
Imports (USD billion)	33.3	36.7	39.5	44.9	44.7
Exports (annual variation in %)	-6.5	2.3	12.6	14.6	0.2
Imports (annual variation in %)	-18.5	10.0	7.6	13.6	-0.4
International Reserves (USD)	22.7	25.0	26.1	24.4	26.5
External Debt (% of GDP)	43.1	45.7	47.5	44.1	45.8

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Morocco Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	3.02	0.0 %	Dec 31
Exchange Rate	9.56	-0.29 %	Dec 31

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