Morocco Economic Forecast

January 14, 2020

The economy softened slightly in the third quarter due to a sharp contraction in agricultural output, as rainfall deficits in early 2019 hurt cereal output. Moreover, the non-agricultural sector decelerated slightly on weaker momentum in retail and manufacturing. Turning to the fourth quarter, economic growth should have picked up slightly due to stronger contributions from the mining and construction sectors, while upbeat tourist arrivals likely further supported domestic activity. However, the agricultural sector will likely have continued to drag on momentum. In related news, the state news agency reported in January that the government will spend USD 12 billion between 2020 and 2027 securing the country’s strained water supply, which could help smooth the volatility of agricultural output in the longer term.

Morocco Economic Growth

Economic growth should accelerate this year due to a recovery in agricultural output. Moreover, recent financial reforms should strengthen domestic demand. Heightened regional political tensions and twin deficits pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.2% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, our panelists project growth of 3.5%.

Morocco Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	33.4	33.8	34.1	34.5	34.9
GDP per capita (USD)	3,143	3,346	2,975	3,003	3,160
GDP (USD bn)	105	113	102	104	110
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.5	2.7	4.5	1.1	4.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-	-	-	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	-0.5	-1.3	0.2	8.8	-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	0.9	1.3	1.6	2.5	2.1
Unemployment Rate	9.2	9.7	9.6	9.9	10.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.1	-4.7	-4.2	-4.3	-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	61.8	63.3	63.7	64.9	65.1
Money (annual variation in %)	2.7	5.0	7.0	6.3	7.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.4	1.6	0.6	1.8	1.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.9	0.4	1.6	1.6	0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	2.50	2.50	2.25	2.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	8.16	9.06	9.92	10.12	9.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	8.41	8.41	9.75	9.81	9.71
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.9	-5.8	-2.1	-4.0	-3.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-8.2	-6.6	-2.2	-4.2	-3.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-20.5	-21.0	-14.7	-17.6	-18.0
Exports (USD billion)	22.0	19.9	18.6	19.1	21.5
Imports (USD billion)	42.5	40.9	33.3	36.7	39.5
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.5	-9.2	-6.5	2.3	12.6
Imports (annual variation in %)	2.5	-3.7	-18.5	10.0	7.6
International Reserves (USD)	18.8	20.2	22.7	25.0	26.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	37.9	38.8	43.1	45.7	47.5

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Morocco Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	3.02	0.0 %	Dec 31
Exchange Rate	9.56	-0.29 %	Dec 31

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