Morocco Economic Forecast

July 3, 2018

Following a slowdown in Q1 due to dampened agricultural output—and despite strong investment momentum—the economy may have taken a further hit in Q2. Deep social unrest, caused by rising inflation and persistent urban and youth unemployment, sparked a large and still-ongoing boycott campaign in April, targeting food and oil and gas companies. The added uncertainty threatens jobs in the agricultural sector, and could drag on investment momentum and growth, despite the robustness of the tourism and industrial sectors.

Morocco Economic Growth

Growth will likely soften this year as activity in the agricultural sector moderates somewhat, although the cereal harvest is expected to be bountiful. Nevertheless, the sector—which employs a third of the workforce—should support private consumption while the government’s fiscal efforts strengthen macro fundamentals. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.2% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2019.

Morocco Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	33.4	33.8	34.1	34.5	34.9
GDP per capita (USD)	3,143	3,346	2,976	3,012	3,119
GDP (USD bn)	105	113	102	104	109
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.5	2.7	4.5	1.2	4.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.2	3.1	2.3	3.4	4.2
Investment (annual variation in %)	-0.5	-1.3	0.2	9.3	-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	0.9	1.3	1.6	2.1	2.6
Unemployment Rate	9.2	9.7	9.6	9.9	9.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.1	-4.7	-4.2	-4.0	-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	61.7	63.4	63.7	64.7	64.5
Money (annual variation in %)	2.7	5.0	7.0	6.3	7.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.4	1.6	0.6	1.8	1.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.9	0.4	1.6	1.6	0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	2.50	2.50	2.25	2.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	8.16	9.06	9.92	10.12	9.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	8.41	8.41	9.75	9.81	9.71
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.9	-5.7	-2.1	-4.2	-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-8.5	-6.6	-2.2	-4.4	-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-23.6	-21.2	-14.7	-17.8	-18.2
Exports (USD billion)	22.0	20.5	18.7	18.9	21.4
Imports (USD billion)	45.6	41.7	33.4	36.7	39.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.9	-7.0	-8.9	1.3	13.1
Imports (annual variation in %)	1.8	-8.7	-19.8	9.8	8.0
International Reserves (USD)	18.8	20.2	22.7	25.0	26.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	37.9	38.8	43.1	45.5	48.1

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Morocco Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	3.68	0.0 %	Jun 30
Exchange Rate	9.46	-0.29 %	Jul 17
Stock Market	11,401	-0.23 %	Jul 17

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