Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

May 12, 2020

Economic activity was likely derailed in the first quarter. Lockdown measures will have weighed heavily on the tourism and retail sectors since they were implemented in late March, while agricultural production likely contracted notably in Q1 due to poor weather conditions, and industrial production activity likely ebbed. Prospects for the second quarter are even bleaker. In May, an estimated 87% of Moroccan hotels were shuttered due to Covid-19. Moreover, employment levels are falling in the non-agricultural sector, while depressed commodity prices are dragging on the terms of trade. A public-private fund worth roughly 2.7% of GDP has been allocated to deal with the economic fallout from Covid-19, and the government called on all available funds (USD 3 billion) from the precautionary and liquidity line from the IMF to address the pandemic. In late April Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Morocco’s credit rating from stable to negative due to growing twin deficits.

Morocco Economic Growth

The economy is seen contracting this year due to Covid-19 weighing on the all-important tourism sector. Moreover, domestic containment measures will likely drag heavily on household spending and business investment. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 1.7% in 2020, which is down 3.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.8% in 2021.

Morocco Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)34.134.534.935.235.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,9753,0033,1603,313-  
GDP (USD bn)102104110117-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.51.14.23.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.28.8-0.21.2-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.81.03.23.0-  
Unemployment Rate9.69.910.29.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.2-4.3-3.6-3.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)63.764.965.164.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)7.06.37.95.96.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.61.81.90.11.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.61.60.81.80.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.502.252.252.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)9.9210.129.359.579.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9.759.819.719.399.62
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-4.0-3.4-5.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-4.2-3.7-6.5-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.7-17.6-18.0-20.2-  
Exports (USD billion)18.619.121.524.6-  
Imports (USD billion)33.336.739.544.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.52.312.614.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.510.07.613.5-  
International Reserves (USD)22.725.026.124.426.5
External Debt (% of GDP)43.145.747.544.2-  

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Morocco Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.020.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate9.56-0.29 %Dec 31

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