Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

November 27, 2018

Economic growth appears likely to have picked up pace in the third quarter, largely on the back of strengthening internal demand. Despite waning consumer confidence in the quarter, lower unemployment and robust tourist inflows likely buttressed private spending, while investment benefited from a pick-up in industrial activity, led by resilient external demand. Though a higher energy bill continues to weigh on the trade deficit, the external sector was notably buttressed by strong demand for phosphate products—amid surging global prices—and automotive components.

Morocco Economic Growth

Recent reforms to attract foreign investment in select sectors should bolster FDI inflows which, coupled with robust tourism activity, will likely propel economic growth in 2019. However, high youth unemployment will continue to weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.

Morocco Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.433.834.134.534.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,1433,3462,9763,0123,119
GDP (USD bn)105113102104109
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.52.74.51.24.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.33.44.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.5-1.30.29.3-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.91.31.62.12.6
Unemployment Rate9.29.79.69.99.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-4.7-4.2-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.763.463.764.764.5
Money (annual variation in %)2.75.07.06.37.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.60.61.81.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.90.41.61.60.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.502.502.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.169.069.9210.129.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.418.419.759.819.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.9-5.7-2.1-4.2-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.5-6.6-2.2-4.4-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-23.6-21.2-14.7-17.8-18.2
Exports (USD billion)22.020.518.718.921.4
Imports (USD billion)45.641.733.436.739.6
Exports (annual variation in %)2.9-7.0-8.91.313.1
Imports (annual variation in %)1.8-8.7-19.89.88.0
International Reserves (USD)18.820.222.725.026.1
External Debt (% of GDP)37.938.843.145.548.1

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Morocco Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.740.0 %Nov 30
Exchange Rate9.50-0.29 %Dec 12
Stock Market11,214-0.23 %Dec 12

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