Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

May 10, 2022

Annual GDP growth slowed in Q1 2022. A drought caused the agricultural sector to contract 12.1% year on year. Reduced agricultural rents and softer remittances growth hit private consumption, as did rising inflation due to the Russia-Ukraine war pushing up food and energy prices. Rising commodity prices also caused the trade deficit to widen in Q1. More positively, the lifting of a flight ban in February boosted the tourism sector, while an easing Covid-19 wave further supported the services sector. Turning to Q2, activity is set to pick up. The economy continues to reopen from Covid-19 and recent rains have boosted the agricultural sector somewhat. That said, with much of the harvest already ruined, the agricultural sector will continue to drag on growth. High energy prices will continue to put pressure on consumers’ purchasing power and on the external and fiscal balances.

Morocco Economic Growth

After growing at the second-fastest rate in the region in 2021, growth will slow this year on deteriorating terms of trade and reduced agricultural output. Nonetheless, a high vaccination rate and a supportive fiscal policy should sustain domestic demand. Key factors to watch include future rainfall, further increases in food and energy prices, and new Covid-19 variants. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 2.6% in 2022, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 4.1% in 2023.

Morocco Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)34.134.534.935.235.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,9753,0033,1593,3183,364
GDP (USD bn)102104110117120
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.51.14.23.12.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.28.8-0.21.21.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.80.63.63.03.5
Unemployment Rate9.69.910.29.79.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.2-4.3-3.6-3.7-3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)63.764.965.165.266.2
Money (annual variation in %)7.06.37.95.96.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.61.81.90.11.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.61.60.82.00.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.502.252.252.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)9.9210.129.359.579.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9.759.819.719.399.62
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-4.0-3.4-5.3-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-4.2-3.7-6.2-4.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.7-17.6-18.0-20.3-20.0
Exports (USD billion)18.619.121.524.624.7
Imports (USD billion)33.336.739.544.944.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.52.312.614.60.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.510.07.613.6-0.4
International Reserves (USD)22.725.026.124.426.5
External Debt (% of GDP)43.145.747.544.145.8

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Morocco Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.020.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate9.56-0.29 %Dec 31

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