Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

May 7, 2019

The economy appears to have lost momentum in Q1 2019 as a contraction in the agricultural sector, owing to a high base effect from last year’s bumper harvest and drought conditions in winter, dragged on growth. That said, the rest of the economy showed some positive momentum, with robust growth in the services and manufacturing sectors likely powering a rebound in fixed investment. Industrial output was driven by a noticeable acceleration in the mining and quarrying sector thanks to higher domestic demand for phosphate products—due notably to the dynamism of the chemical sector. Turning to Q2, the picture looks similar; an expected further contraction in the agricultural sector is projected to be broadly counterbalanced by solid growth elsewhere.

Morocco Economic Growth

Growth should be broadly stable this year. On the one hand, strong tourism and solid private consumption will power momentum, while reforms to attract FDI in key sectors should support investment. On the other, weaker growth in the Eurozone—Morocco’s main trade partner and source of tourists—is a main downside risk and will weigh on growth. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.9% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.

Morocco Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.433.834.134.534.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,1433,3462,9763,0123,119
GDP (USD bn)105113102104109
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.52.74.51.24.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.33.44.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.5-1.30.29.3-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.91.31.62.12.6
Unemployment Rate9.29.79.69.99.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-4.7-4.2-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.763.463.764.764.5
Money (annual variation in %)2.75.07.06.37.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.60.61.81.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.90.41.61.60.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.502.502.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.169.069.9210.129.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.418.419.759.819.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.9-5.7-2.1-4.2-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.5-6.6-2.2-4.4-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-23.6-21.2-14.7-17.8-18.2
Exports (USD billion)22.020.518.718.921.4
Imports (USD billion)45.641.733.436.739.6
Exports (annual variation in %)2.9-7.0-8.91.313.1
Imports (annual variation in %)1.8-8.7-19.89.88.0
International Reserves (USD)18.820.222.725.026.1
External Debt (% of GDP)37.938.843.145.548.1

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Morocco Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.490.0 %Apr 30
Exchange Rate9.63-0.29 %May 13
Stock Market11,222-0.23 %May 13

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