Morocco Economic Forecast

March 5, 2019

The economy likely decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2018 as a contraction in mining and quarrying output—notably for phosphate—weighed on the industrial sector. In contrast, the aeronautic and automotive sectors likely fared well, supporting export growth in the quarter while imports slowed. Turning to Q1 2019, a more average cereal harvest following a bountiful 2018 crop should further weigh on growth. In recent weeks, Morocco obtained loans and grants of USD 700 million from the World Bank, and USD 375 million from Germany to support digital transformation, financial inclusion and sustainable development.

Morocco Economic Growth

Solid investment momentum following a landmark reform to attract FDI should power the economy this year, while robust private consumption and tourist inflows will further support growth. High youth unemployment and slowing global growth remain key downside risks, however. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2020.

Morocco Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	33.4	33.8	34.1	34.5	34.9
GDP per capita (USD)	3,143	3,346	2,976	3,012	3,119
GDP (USD bn)	105	113	102	104	109
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.5	2.7	4.5	1.2	4.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.2	3.1	2.3	3.4	4.2
Investment (annual variation in %)	-0.5	-1.3	0.2	9.3	-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	0.9	1.3	1.6	2.1	2.6
Unemployment Rate	9.2	9.7	9.6	9.9	9.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.1	-4.7	-4.2	-4.0	-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	61.7	63.4	63.7	64.7	64.5
Money (annual variation in %)	2.7	5.0	7.0	6.3	7.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.4	1.6	0.6	1.8	1.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.9	0.4	1.6	1.6	0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	2.50	2.50	2.25	2.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	8.16	9.06	9.92	10.12	9.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	8.41	8.41	9.75	9.81	9.71
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.9	-5.7	-2.1	-4.2	-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-8.5	-6.6	-2.2	-4.4	-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-23.6	-21.2	-14.7	-17.8	-18.2
Exports (USD billion)	22.0	20.5	18.7	18.9	21.4
Imports (USD billion)	45.6	41.7	33.4	36.7	39.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.9	-7.0	-8.9	1.3	13.1
Imports (annual variation in %)	1.8	-8.7	-19.8	9.8	8.0
International Reserves (USD)	18.8	20.2	22.7	25.0	26.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	37.9	38.8	43.1	45.5	48.1

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Morocco Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	3.62	0.0 %	Feb 28
Exchange Rate	9.64	-0.29 %	Mar 11
Stock Market	11,103	-0.23 %	Mar 11

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