Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

November 3, 2020

The economy shrank 9.0% on an annual basis in Q3, according to preliminary government figures, softening somewhat from the near 15.0% contraction recorded in Q2. An uptick in agricultural production is set to have driven the moderation, although continued contractions in the industrial and textile sectors will have weighed on overall output. This comes amid tumbling consumer sentiment, with the household confidence index dropping to a series-low reading in Q3. Furthermore, a rapid increase in daily Covid-19 cases through October forced the government to extend the state of emergency to 10 November, boding ill for activity in Q4. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating to BB+ from BBB-, effectively cutting it to junk status, due to the harsh impact of the pandemic on the country’s finances and debt levels.

Morocco Economic Growth

GDP is projected to recover in 2021 following the sharp contraction expected for this year. A rebound in household and capital spending should bolster the domestic economy, while an ameliorating external panorama should benefit exports. However, the prolonged nature of the pandemic and its impact on the vital tourism sector remains a key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 4.6% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 3.6% in 2022.

Morocco Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)34.134.534.935.235.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,9753,0033,1593,3183,364
GDP (USD bn)102104110117120
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.51.14.23.12.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.28.8-0.21.21.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.80.63.63.03.5
Unemployment Rate9.69.910.29.79.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.2-4.3-3.6-3.7-3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)63.764.965.165.266.2
Money (annual variation in %)7.06.37.95.96.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.61.81.90.11.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.61.60.82.00.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.502.252.252.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)9.9210.129.359.579.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9.759.819.719.399.62
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-4.0-3.4-5.3-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-4.2-3.7-6.2-4.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.7-17.6-18.0-20.3-20.0
Exports (USD billion)18.619.121.524.624.7
Imports (USD billion)33.336.739.544.944.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.52.312.614.60.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.510.07.613.6-0.4
International Reserves (USD)22.725.026.124.426.5
External Debt (% of GDP)43.145.747.544.145.8

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Morocco Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.020.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate9.56-0.29 %Dec 31

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