Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

October 5, 2021

The country saw steep economic growth in Q2, although this was largely driven by a base effect: Underlying activity likely remained burdened by Covid-19 restrictions, which, although loosened in May, remained tough through the quarter. Turning to Q3, Covid-19 cases increased sharply in July and restrictions were tightened in August, although the accelerating vaccination program sounded a positive note as cases began to fall in September, boding well for activity in Q4. Less positively, it was announced that the Maghreb gas pipeline will be closed from 31 October, reducing fuel supply, amid a diplomatic spat with Algeria. In other news, the ruling Islamist party lost more seats than expected in the parliamentary elections held on 8 September. A three-party coalition with a pro-business and pro-monarchy stance took its place, pledging more fiscal stimulus to boost growth in the next budget.

Morocco Economic Growth

Amid a relatively successful vaccination campaign, growth should be one of the region’s highest this year. In 2022, activity should be more muted as the base effect fades. Dispute with Algeria and international backlash regarding ongoing conflict in the Western Sahara pose downside risks, with an EU court annulling all EU-Morocco trade and fisheries deals in September. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 5.1% in 2021 and to grow 3.5% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Morocco Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)34.134.534.935.235.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,9753,0033,1593,3183,364
GDP (USD bn)102104110117120
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.51.14.23.12.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.28.8-0.21.21.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.80.63.63.03.5
Unemployment Rate9.69.910.29.79.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.2-4.3-3.6-3.7-3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)63.764.965.165.266.2
Money (annual variation in %)7.06.37.95.96.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.61.81.90.11.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.61.60.82.00.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.502.252.252.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)9.9210.129.359.579.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9.759.819.719.399.62
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-4.0-3.4-5.3-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-4.2-3.7-6.2-4.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.7-17.6-18.0-20.3-20.0
Exports (USD billion)18.619.121.524.624.7
Imports (USD billion)33.336.739.544.944.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.52.312.614.60.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.510.07.613.6-0.4
International Reserves (USD)22.725.026.124.426.5
External Debt (% of GDP)43.145.747.544.145.8

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Morocco Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.020.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate9.56-0.29 %Dec 31

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