Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

June 7, 2022

Annual GDP growth weakened in Q1 2022. Drought conditions drove a 12.1% contraction in the agricultural sector. Rising inflation due to higher commodity prices arising from the war in Ukraine, a reduction in agricultural employment, lower agricultural income and slower growth in remittances combined to undermine private consumption, while rising commodity prices led to a widening of the trade deficit. More positively, the lifting of a flight ban in February boosted tourism, while a receding Covid-19 wave buoyed the services sector. Activity is set to improve during Q2, as Covid-19 restrictions are relaxed and recent rains bring some relief to farmers. However, with much of the harvest already lost, this sector will remain a drag on growth. Elevated commodity prices will continue to put pressure on the purchasing power of consumers, as well as the external and fiscal balances.

Morocco Economic Growth

After posting the second-fastest growth rate in the region in 2021, growth will slow this year on worsening terms of trade and a decline in agricultural output. However, looser Covid-19 restrictions and a supportive fiscal policy will buoy domestic demand. Key risk factors include further rainfall deficits, additional spikes in commodity prices and new Covid-19 variants. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 2.2% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 4.1% in 2023.

Morocco Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)34.134.534.935.235.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,9753,0033,1593,3183,364
GDP (USD bn)102104110117120
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.51.14.23.12.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.28.8-0.21.21.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.80.63.63.03.5
Unemployment Rate9.69.910.29.79.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.2-4.3-3.6-3.7-3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)63.764.965.165.266.2
Money (annual variation in %)7.06.37.95.96.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.61.81.90.11.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.61.60.82.00.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.502.252.252.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)9.9210.129.359.579.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9.759.819.719.399.62
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-4.0-3.4-5.3-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-4.2-3.7-6.2-4.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.7-17.6-18.0-20.3-20.0
Exports (USD billion)18.619.121.524.624.7
Imports (USD billion)33.336.739.544.944.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.52.312.614.60.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.510.07.613.6-0.4
International Reserves (USD)22.725.026.124.426.5
External Debt (% of GDP)43.145.747.544.145.8

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Morocco Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.020.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate9.56-0.29 %Dec 31

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