Montenegro Economic Forecast

Montenegro Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

The economy powered ahead in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 4.7% year-on-year (Q2: +3.2% yoy). Strong growth was underpinned by a rebound in fixed investment and a greater contribution from the external sector, which received impetus from robust tourism and the recovery in electricity and gas supply. On the downside, household spending moderated notably in the quarter, in tandem with falling real wages in Q3. Turning to Q4, economic growth should remain brisk. Tourist arrivals increased at a robust pace in October–November and energy generation surged in November, likely due to initial operations of the recently completed Montenegro–Italy submarine power cable. That said, the manufacturing sector remained on feeble footing as output plunged in November.

Montenegro Economic Growth

The economy appears poised to slow further in 2020 after a more modest outturn in 2019, but remain healthy overall. Growth will likely be weighed on by an expected slowdown in private consumption. On the upside, a recovery in the industrial sector, an improving labor market and strong tourism should buffer growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen growing 2.9%.

Montenegro Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)0.60.60.60.60.6
GDP per capita (USD)7,1917,3866,5217,0237,784
GDP per capita (EUR)5,4155,5595,8756,3476,889
GDP (USD bn)4.54.64.14.44.9
GDP (EUR bn)3.43.53.74.04.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.51.83.42.94.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)10.6-11.47.9-4.4-4.2
Unemployment Rate19.518.117.917.517.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.0-3.0-8.0-3.4-5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.259.966.264.464.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-0.31.41.01.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.05-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.11-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-14.5-15.2-13.2-18.1-18.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.6-0.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.3-1.4-1.5-1.7-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)1.71.71.82.02.2
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-9.8-7.66.48.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.70.63.511.911.7
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.50.70.80.9
International Reserves (USD)0.60.70.70.81.1
External Debt (% of GDP)68.557.365.662.064.6

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Montenegro Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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