Montenegro Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The economy likely continued expanding at a robust pace in the first quarter of 2019 and should have entered the second quarter on a similarly good footing. Ongoing work on the country’s vast Bar-Boljare motorway, which is nearing completion, will have supported growth in Q1, as suggested by the strong year-on-year increase in registered construction activity. In addition, the services sector appeared to be in sound health through Q1 and into Q2: after surging in January–March, tourist arrivals continued to grow strongly in April in annual terms. On the other hand, the merchandise trade deficit widened from January–April this year, as year-on-year import growth was robust while exports decreased.

Montenegro Economic Growth

The economy is seen slowing this year as infrastructure spending unwinds as the Bar-Boljare motorway nears completion and the government tightens its fiscal stance. Elevated public debt and the EU slowdown, which could drag on tourism and FDI, are key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2020.

Montenegro Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
GDP per capita (USD)	7,191	7,386	6,520	7,023	7,683
GDP per capita (EUR)	5,415	5,559	5,875	6,347	6,800
GDP (USD bn)	4.5	4.6	4.1	4.4	4.8
GDP (EUR bn)	3.4	3.5	3.7	4.0	4.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.5	1.8	3.4	2.9	4.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	10.7	-10.5	9.2	-3.6	-4.3
Unemployment Rate	19.5	18.0	17.6	17.7	17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-4.8	-1.3	-8.3	-3.5	-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)	55.2	59.9	66.2	64.4	65.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.3	-0.3	1.4	0.9	1.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.38	1.21	1.09	1.05	-
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.33	1.33	1.11	1.11	-
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.5	-15.2	-13.2	-18.1	-18.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7	-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)	1.7	1.7	1.8	2.0	2.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.1	-9.8	-9.0	8.0	7.4
Imports (annual variation in %)	-2.7	0.6	3.2	12.2	11.4
International Reserves (EUR)	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.9
International Reserves (USD)	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.0
External Debt (% of GDP)	68.5	57.3	65.6	61.9	-

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Montenegro Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.13	0.65 %	Jun 13

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