Montenegro Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
Available data from Q1 points to strong growth. There was surge in exports and tourist arrivals in the period, by the end of Covid-19 restrictions throughout Europe. Moreover, real wages grew rapidly—likely thanks to the minimum wage hike to EUR 450 from 1 January—unemployment decreased steadily and retail sales boomed, boding well for household consumption. Turning to Q2, tourism sector data is positive: April showed soaring arrivals compared to 2021, and the national airway company is adding additional flights to further boost visitor numbers. That said, soaring inflation in the wake of the Ukraine war could be limiting spending. Meanwhile, a coalition government of pro-EU and pro-Serb forces recently took office after three months of political impasse. While the formation of a government bodes well for economic stability, the new administration will have difficulty achieving structural reforms.Montenegro Economic Growth
In recent months, panelists have downgraded their economic growth expectations for this year due to the spillovers from the Ukraine war. That said, the fading impact of the pandemic and robust wage growth should somewhat support activity. The potentially fragile nature of the new government is a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 3.9% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is seen expanding 3.9%.Montenegro Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,521 | 7,034 | 7,809 | 8,840 | 8,819 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 5,875 | 6,357 | 6,912 | 7,485 | 7,878 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 7.9 | -4.4 | -4.2 | 22.4 | -6.3 |
| Unemployment Rate | 17.2 | 21.3 | 22.1 | 17.8 | 16.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.0 | -3.4 | -5.5 | -3.6 | -2.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 66.2 | 64.4 | 64.2 | 70.1 | 77.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.09 | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -11.0 | -16.3 | -16.2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.1 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -7.6 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 6.7 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 3.5 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 1.8 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 153 | 143 | 148 | 144 | - |
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Montenegro Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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