Montenegro Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

The economy powered ahead in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 4.7% year-on-year (Q2: +3.2% yoy). Strong growth was underpinned by a rebound in fixed investment and a greater contribution from the external sector, which received impetus from robust tourism and the recovery in electricity and gas supply. On the downside, household spending moderated notably in the quarter, in tandem with falling real wages in Q3. Turning to Q4, economic growth should remain brisk. Tourist arrivals increased at a robust pace in October–November and energy generation surged in November, likely due to initial operations of the recently completed Montenegro–Italy submarine power cable. That said, the manufacturing sector remained on feeble footing as output plunged in November.

Montenegro Economic Growth

The economy appears poised to slow further in 2020 after a more modest outturn in 2019, but remain healthy overall. Growth will likely be weighed on by an expected slowdown in private consumption. On the upside, a recovery in the industrial sector, an improving labor market and strong tourism should buffer growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen growing 2.9%.

Montenegro Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
GDP per capita (USD)	7,191	7,386	6,521	7,023	7,784
GDP per capita (EUR)	5,415	5,559	5,875	6,347	6,889
GDP (USD bn)	4.5	4.6	4.1	4.4	4.9
GDP (EUR bn)	3.4	3.5	3.7	4.0	4.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.5	1.8	3.4	2.9	4.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	10.6	-11.4	7.9	-4.4	-4.2
Unemployment Rate	19.5	18.1	17.9	17.5	17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-6.0	-3.0	-8.0	-3.4	-5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	55.2	59.9	66.2	64.4	64.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.3	-0.3	1.4	1.0	1.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.38	1.21	1.09	1.05	-
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.33	1.33	1.11	1.11	-
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.5	-15.2	-13.2	-18.1	-18.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7	-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)	1.7	1.7	1.8	2.0	2.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.1	-9.8	-7.6	6.4	8.8
Imports (annual variation in %)	-2.7	0.6	3.5	11.9	11.7
International Reserves (EUR)	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.9
International Reserves (USD)	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	68.5	57.3	65.6	62.0	64.6

Sample Report

5 years of Montenegro economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Montenegro Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.12	0.65 %	Dec 31

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Montenegro Economic Outlook

Montenegro Economic Growth

Montenegro Economy Data

Sample Report

Sample Report

Montenegro Facts

Request a Trial

Search form

Sign up for our newsletter