Montenegro Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020
Available indicators suggest that the economic situation remained precarious in the third quarter, following the second quarter’s sharp GDP contraction as Covid-19 containment measures hammered both domestic and external activity. Retail sales nosedived at an even more pronounced pace in the third quarter than in the second, which, coupled with a climbing unemployment rate, hints at still-abysmal household spending. Moreover, industrial production continued to contract in Q3, even though less sharply than in Q2, while the decline in merchandise exports, albeit softening from Q2, remained sizable, boding ill for private sector activity. On a more positive note, in late October the Central Bank Governor stated the country had fulfilled all conditions for a second development loan with the World Bank.Montenegro Economic Growth
The economy is seen contracting at a sharp pace this year before rebounding in 2021. The gradual reopening of the global economy should bolster the external sector, while household spending is also expected to recover. That said, the unpredictable course of the pandemic and heightened uncertainty pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 6.0% in 2021, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the economy is seen expanding 4.6%.Montenegro Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,521 | 7,034 | 7,809 | 8,840 | 8,819 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 5,875 | 6,357 | 6,912 | 7,485 | 7,878 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 7.9 | -4.4 | -4.2 | 22.4 | -6.3 |
| Unemployment Rate | 17.2 | 21.3 | 22.1 | 17.8 | 16.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.0 | -3.4 | -5.5 | -3.6 | -2.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 66.2 | 64.4 | 64.2 | 70.1 | 77.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.09 | 1.05 | - | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -11.0 | -16.3 | -16.2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.1 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -7.6 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 6.7 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 3.5 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 1.8 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 153 | 143 | 148 | 144 | - |
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Montenegro Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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