Montenegro Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

The economy appears to have remained on course for its second-best performance in a decade in 2018, with data for the fourth quarter pointing to another solid turnout. Household spending likely remained upbeat as reflected by healthy retail sales growth throughout the quarter. Moreover, solid construction activity in Q4 signals sustained infrastructure investment. Looking at 2019, Q1 started decently well. The tourism sector was strong in January, with overnight stays rising at a solid pace. Industrial production plunged in January, however.

Montenegro Economic Growth

Momentum is expected to dissipate moderately in 2019. The investment surge will likely cool as the Bar-Bojare Highway nears completion. Moreover, public spending should remain subdued amid continued fiscal consolidation. Nonetheless, electricity exports and a flourishing tourism sector will continue to support the expansion. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.8% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Montenegro Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
GDP per capita (USD)	7,191	7,386	6,520	7,023	7,683
GDP per capita (EUR)	5,415	5,559	5,875	6,347	6,800
GDP (USD bn)	4.5	4.6	4.1	4.4	4.8
GDP (EUR bn)	3.4	3.5	3.7	4.0	4.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.5	1.8	3.4	2.9	4.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	10.7	-10.5	9.2	-3.6	-4.3
Unemployment Rate	19.5	18.0	17.6	17.7	17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-4.8	-1.3	-8.3	-3.5	-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)	55.2	59.9	66.2	64.4	65.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.3	-0.3	1.4	0.9	1.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.38	1.21	1.09	1.05	-
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.33	1.33	1.11	1.11	-
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.5	-15.2	-13.2	-18.1	-18.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7	-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)	1.7	1.7	1.8	2.0	2.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.1	-9.8	-9.0	8.0	7.4
Imports (annual variation in %)	-2.7	0.6	3.2	12.2	11.4
International Reserves (EUR)	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.9
International Reserves (USD)	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.0
External Debt (% of GDP)	68.5	57.3	65.6	61.9	-

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Montenegro Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.12	0.65 %	Mar 11

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