Montenegro Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

While official GDP figures for the third quarter are still pending, available data indicates the economy continued expanding at a solid pace. Investment should have remained the key driver of growth, powered by large infrastructure projects such as the Bar-Boljare highway and the underwater power cable with Italy. Moreover, the stream of tourist arrivals throughout Q3 stayed steady, while the services sector, alongside brisk construction activity, helped sustain the gradual improvement in the labor market as well. Nevertheless, the government’s agenda to shrink the public sector could cause unemployment to rebound in the near-term.

Montenegro Economic Growth

The economy is expected to shift into a lower gear in 2019 as 2018’s investment stimulus tapers due to the completion of key infrastructure projects. The government’s fiscal consolidation efforts are projected to pose a mild drag on growth. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Montenegro Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
GDP per capita (USD)	7,191	7,386	6,520	7,023	7,683
GDP per capita (EUR)	5,415	5,559	5,875	6,347	6,800
GDP (USD bn)	4.5	4.6	4.1	4.4	4.8
GDP (EUR bn)	3.4	3.5	3.7	4.0	4.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.5	1.8	3.4	2.9	4.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	10.7	-10.5	9.2	-3.6	-4.3
Unemployment Rate	19.5	18.0	17.6	17.7	17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-4.8	-1.3	-8.3	-3.5	-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)	55.2	59.9	66.2	64.4	65.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	0.3	-0.3	1.4	0.9	1.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.38	1.21	1.09	1.05	-
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.33	1.33	1.11	1.11	-
Current Account (% of GDP)	-14.5	-15.2	-13.2	-18.1	-18.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7	-1.9
Imports (EUR billion)	1.7	1.7	1.8	2.0	2.2
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.1	-9.8	-9.0	8.0	7.4
Imports (annual variation in %)	-2.7	0.6	3.2	12.2	11.4
International Reserves (EUR)	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.9
International Reserves (USD)	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.0
External Debt (% of GDP)	68.5	57.3	65.6	61.9	-

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Montenegro Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.14	0.65 %	Dec 12

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