Montenegro Economic Outlook
May 12, 2020With tourism revenues accounting for more than 20% of the country’s GDP, Montenegro’s economy is languishing under the global Covid-19 measures that have brought international travel to a near standstill. Moreover, merchandise exports plummeted in March on frail European demand, while remittance inflows are expected to plunge. In response to the crisis, on 24 April the cabinet approved a second EUR 75 million package that provides 70% wage subsidies to affected individuals. As Montenegro’s fiscal position has become even more precarious, S&P Global Ratings downgraded its outlook for the sovereign’s B+ credit rating to negative on 1 May. More positively, the government began to gradually reopen the economy starting 4 May, which should help revive activity.
Montenegro Economic GrowthThe outlook for this year is dismal: Protracted global travel restrictions will cripple the tourism sector this year, while infrastructure projects will likely be delayed. A ballooning fiscal deficit could further strain large debt financing needs, while mounting political tensions further dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to contract 6.5% in 2020, which is down 9.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2021, the economy is seen growing 5.2%.
Montenegro Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||6,521||7,034||7,809||8,840||-|
|GDP per capita (EUR)||5,875||6,357||6,912||7,485||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||4.1||4.4||4.9||5.5||-|
|GDP (EUR bn)||3.7||4.0||4.3||4.7||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.4||2.9||4.7||5.1||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||7.9||-4.4||-4.2||22.4||-6.3|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-8.0||-3.4||-5.5||-3.6||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||66.2||64.4||64.2||70.1||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||1.4||1.0||1.9||1.6||1.0|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1.09||1.05||-||-||-|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1.11||1.11||-||-||-|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-13.2||-18.1||-18.6||-17.0||-|
|Current Account Balance (EUR bn)||-0.4||-0.6||-0.7||-0.8||-0.7|
|Trade Balance (EUR billion)||-1.5||-1.7||-1.9||-2.0||-2.1|
|Imports (EUR billion)||1.8||2.0||2.2||2.5||2.5|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-7.6||6.2||9.0||14.0||6.7|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||3.5||12.0||11.7||10.8||1.8|
|International Reserves (EUR)||0.6||0.8||0.8||1.1||1.4|
|International Reserves (USD)||0.7||0.8||1.0||1.2||1.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||153||143||148||144||-|
5 years of Montenegro economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.