Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

Mongolia’s outlook is improving following a strong first quarter. In the first two months of Q2, exports surged on higher exports of mineral products, while industrial production rebounded in May thanks to healthy mining and quarrying output growth. The rebound in the mining sector bodes well for the economy, due to the sector’s importance in generating jobs, exports and fiscal revenue. In early July, Fitch upgraded the country’s long-term debt rating to B from B- owing to constrained government spending and rising tax revenues, which have increased strongly thanks to buoyant economic growth. During a staff visit in late June, the IMF stated that the country had exceeded Q1 fiscal and reserve targets, and approved a USD 37 million disbursement.

Mongolia Economic Growth

The economy remains highly exposed to commodity price swings and dependent on FDI, presenting key downside risks. However, large ongoing mining projects like the Oyu Tolgoi mine expansion should carry the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see growth reaching 5.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2019.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.93.03.03.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,5984,1653,9964,0753,903
GDP (USD bn)13.312.211.912.311.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.45.1
Unemployment Rate7.97.97.510.08.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.1-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.457.162.187.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.212.5-5.521.030.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.512.86.61.14.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.5012.0013.0014.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,6601,8881,9932,4882,426
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,5161,8151,9682,1452,440
Current Account (% of GDP)-35.7-15.9-8.0-5.7-9.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.61.9
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.96.2
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.44.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.426.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.629.2
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.33.0
External Debt (% of GDP)150179192200230

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,461-0.04 %Aug 17

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