Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economy contracted sharply in annual terms in Q2, albeit at a slower pace than in Q1. The downturn was underpinned by muted investment and lower exports following restrictions imposed to contain the pandemic. However, public and private consumption rose, cushioning the fall. Looking at Q3, available data suggests the economy recovered somewhat. Industrial output grew for the first time this year in September as mining and quarrying production soared. Moreover, exports surged in Q3, likely bolstered by renewed Chinese demand. Less positively, prospects for Q4 dimmed after the government declared a five-day nationwide lockdown in mid-November following the country’s first locally transmitted Covid-19 case. In other news, in late October, parliament ratified a USD 100 million low-interest loan from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to help mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mongolia Economic Growth

The economy is set to contract this year, as depressed foreign demand for commodities hampers the external sector. Going into 2021, GDP should rebound, supported by a recovery in exports and rebounding domestic demand. However, huge current account and fiscal shortfalls, volatile commodity prices and elevated external debt pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project a GDP to expand 6.7% in 2021, which is up 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2022.

Mongolia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.13.13.23.23.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,8473,5783,5954,0514,211
GDP (USD bn)11.811.211.413.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.51.45.47.04.9
Unemployment Rate7.510.08.87.710.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-15.3-6.30.0-1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.187.684.673.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)-5.521.030.522.87.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.61.14.26.87.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)13.0014.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.1-6.3-10.1-16.8-15.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.7-1.2-2.2-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.91.61.91.11.5
Exports (USD billion)4.74.96.27.07.6
Imports (USD billion)3.83.44.35.96.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.15.426.013.18.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.5-11.629.235.54.3
International Reserves (USD)1.31.33.03.54.3
External Debt (% of GDP)187231252224-  

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Mongolia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2,735-0.04 %Jan 01

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