Mongolia Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter in annual terms, propelled by investment related to the colossal Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Although fixed investment growth slowed, it remained strong nonetheless, and the economy further benefitted from a build-up of inventories, likely related to industrial machinery imports. Overall, the external sector’s performance improved in the quarter as imports slowed while export growth picked up. However, private spending growth slowed to a near standstill. Meanwhile on 21 November, IMF staff declared that Mongolia was on track to meet all of its support program’s year-end targets.
Mongolia Economic GrowthGrowth momentum should remain strong next year, as the Oyu Tolgoi expansion project will buoy FDI, industrial activity and the trade sector. Downside risks include lower commodity prices and softer coal demand from China, while low foreign reserves and bank capital present added vulnerabilities. FocusEconomics panelists see growth reaching 6.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2020.
Mongolia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,598||4,165||3,996||4,075||3,903|
|GDP (USD bn)||13.3||12.2||11.9||12.3||11.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||11.6||8.1||2.5||1.4||5.1|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.2||-3.9||-5.0||-15.1||-6.2|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||49.4||57.1||62.1||87.6||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||24.2||12.5||-5.5||21.0||30.5|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||10.5||12.8||6.6||1.1||4.2|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,660||1,888||1,993||2,488||2,426|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||10.50||12.00||13.00||14.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,516||1,815||1,968||2,145||2,440|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-35.7||-15.9||-8.0||-5.7||-9.7|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-4.7||-1.9||-0.9||-0.7||-1.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-2.1||0.5||0.9||1.6||1.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.3||5.8||4.7||4.9||6.2|
|Imports (USD billion)||6.4||5.2||3.8||3.4||4.3|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-2.5||35.1||-19.1||5.4||26.0|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-5.8||-17.5||-27.5||-11.6||29.2|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.2||1.7||1.3||1.3||3.0|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||150||179||192||200||230|
5 years of Mongolia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
|Exchange Rate||2,650||-0.04 %||Jan 21|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.