Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

A recent release shows that GDP fell in the third quarter, following a small contraction in Q2, amid high Covid-19 cases, albeit without any escalation in restrictions. Overall, GDP components faced a less forgiving base effect in Q3: Private consumption fell at a similar pace to Q2, government consumption declined at a faster rate and fixed investment slumped. Meanwhile, exports fell markedly while imports soared, and consequently the external sector weighed on overall GDP in Q3. Moving on to Q4, despite some pandemic-related border checkpoint closures in late October, strong Chinese demand for coal amid power shortages and the ban on Australian coal should have supported exports of the black diamond. That said, cumulative data suggests a slowdown in industrial output in October, mainly due to the mining subsector.

Mongolia Economic Growth

The economy is set to expand at a faster pace in 2022, after an expected return to pre-pandemic levels this year. Dissipating disruptions in the mining subsector and recovering demand from China should boost coal exports, while a well-capitalized market will mobilize investment. That said, the possibility of further rate hikes from the Central Bank poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists project a GDP expansion of 6.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2023.

Mongolia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.13.13.23.23.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,8473,5783,5954,0514,211
GDP (USD bn)11.811.211.413.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.51.45.47.04.9
Unemployment Rate7.510.08.87.710.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-15.3-6.30.0-1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.187.684.673.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)-5.521.030.522.87.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.61.14.26.87.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)13.0014.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.1-6.3-10.1-16.8-15.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.7-1.2-2.2-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.91.61.91.11.5
Exports (USD billion)4.74.96.27.07.6
Imports (USD billion)3.83.44.35.96.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.15.426.013.18.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.5-11.629.235.54.3
International Reserves (USD)1.31.33.03.54.3
External Debt (% of GDP)187231252224-  

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Mongolia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2,735-0.04 %Jan 01

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