Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

Economic growth slowed in the second quarter but remained strong. The slowdown was due to weaker fixed investment and export growth. Both private and government consumption growth, for their part, accelerated in Q2. In terms of industrial production, despite dipping in June, output was strong in Q2 across all three sectors: mining and quarrying; manufacturing; and electricity, thermal energy and water supply. In less positive news, however, development of the Oyu Tolgoi gold-copper mine’s underground copper extraction section, which could turn the mine into the world’s third largest source of copper, continues to face problems; in July, operator Rio Tinto warned of further delays and costs reaching up to USD 1.9 billion.

Mongolia Economic Growth

The economy is seen slowing slightly this year, partly as China, Mongolia’s key trading partner, faces a slowdown of its own. More positively, the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi operation should underpin fixed investment and industrial production growth. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.9% in 2020.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.93.03.13.13.2
GDP per capita (USD)4,3184,0873,8473,5783,585
GDP (USD bn)12.712.211.811.211.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.45.4
Unemployment Rate7.97.97.510.08.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.3-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.457.162.187.683.5
Money (annual variation in %)0.012.5-5.521.030.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.512.86.61.14.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.5012.0013.0014.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-37.4-15.8-8.1-6.3-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.61.9
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.96.2
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.44.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.426.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.629.2
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.33.0
External Debt (% of GDP)152173187231247

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,686-0.04 %Jul 31

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