Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

July 21, 2020

The economy likely lost steam in the second quarter as social distancing took its toll on domestic activity and external demand remained downbeat. Industrial activity, which contracted sharply, was especially affected by restrictions. Moreover, the external sector deteriorated markedly in Q2, with oil exports particularly hit, on a combination of lower volume and an overall decline in prices. As Mongolia’s economy relies heavily on trade, external financing challenges have arisen from the deterioration of the balance of payments. As a consequence, the government triggered the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument in June and received a loan from the Asian Development Bank in May, with combined support worth roughly USD 200 million. In other news, the incumbent Mongolian People’s Party won a majority in parliamentary elections held on 24 June, maintaining political stability.

Mongolia Economic Growth

The economy is set to contract this year as depressed international demand for commodities undermines the external sector. Uncertain international commodity markets, elevated external debt and banking sector vulnerabilities pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project a contraction of 1.8% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and growth of 6.1% in 2021.

Mongolia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.13.13.23.23.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,8473,5783,5954,0514,211
GDP (USD bn)11.811.211.413.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.51.45.47.04.9
Unemployment Rate7.510.08.87.710.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-15.3-6.30.0-1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.187.684.673.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)-5.521.030.522.87.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.61.14.26.87.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)13.0014.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.1-6.3-10.1-16.8-15.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.7-1.2-2.2-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.91.61.91.11.5
Exports (USD billion)4.74.96.27.07.6
Imports (USD billion)3.83.44.35.96.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.15.426.013.18.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.5-11.629.235.54.3
International Reserves (USD)1.31.33.03.54.3
External Debt (% of GDP)187231252224-  

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Mongolia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2,735-0.04 %Jan 01

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