Mongolia Economic Data & Projections

Mongolia Economic Outlook

Resource-driven economy:

Mongolia’s economy is heavily dependent on mining, particularly coal, copper, and gold, which account for over 80% of its exports. The country’s vast natural resource wealth and proximity to China—a major consumer of Mongolian commodities—have fueled economic growth over the past two decades. However, this resource dependence makes Mongolia highly vulnerable to commodity price swings and external shocks.

China reliance:

Mongolia's economic fortunes are closely tied to China, which absorbs over 85% of its exports. The country's infrastructure is heavily oriented toward trade with its southern neighbor, and Chinese demand for coal and copper is a key driver of GDP growth. However, this reliance poses risks, as any slowdown in China’s economy or shifts in trade policy could significantly impact Mongolia. Efforts to diversify trade partners, including deeper ties with Russia and Japan, have made limited progress.

Challenges and vulnerabilities:

Mongolia's economy is highly cyclical, experiencing frequent boom-and-bust cycles due to fluctuating commodity prices and inconsistent fiscal policies. The government has struggled with high levels of external debt, which have necessitated repeated IMF bailouts. Inflation has also been a persistent issue, exacerbated by currency volatility and supply-chain disruptions. Moreover, inadequate infrastructure and logistical bottlenecks continue to limit economic diversification beyond mining.

Mongolia's economic forecasts:

Mongolia’s long-term growth prospects depend on expanding infrastructure, attracting foreign investment, and developing non-mining sectors such as agriculture and tourism. While high global commodity prices can provide temporary boosts, Mongolia needs structural reforms to stabilize its economy and reduce its dependence on China. In the near term, growth will be dictated largely by global commodity demand and China’s economic trajectory.

Mongolia's Macroeconomic Analysis:

Nominal GDP of USD 23.6 billion in 2024.

Nominal GDP of USD 20.3 billion in 2023.

Nominal GDP of USD 23.6 billion in 2024.

GDP per capita of USD 6,653 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 5,796 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 6,642 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 3.9% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 4.6% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 3.9% over the last decade.

Sector Analysis

In 2022, services accounted for 40.1% of overall GDP, manufacturing 6.9%, other industrial activity 42.8%, and agriculture 10.2%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 47.8% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 13.3%, fixed investment 32.4%, and net exports 6.5%.

International trade

In 2022, manufactured products made up 1.3% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 53.9%, food 1.3%, ores and metals 30.9% and agricultural raw materials 3.8%, with other categories accounting for 8.8% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 63.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 22.3%, food 12.6%, ores and metals 0.8% and agricultural raw materials 0.4%, with other goods accounting for 0.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 14.70 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 11.70 billion.