Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

January 28, 2020

The economy appears to have lost further steam in the fourth quarter, after growth slowed to an over two-year low in the third quarter (Q3: +4.2% year-on-year). A slowing external sector likely dragged on overall activity given that exports fell in Q4 in year-on-year terms on lower coal and copper deliveries. Moreover, industrial production contracted in Q4, with mining activities markedly declining in December. On a more positive note, fixed investment and private spending levels were resilient, highlighting a healthy domestic economy, even though net domestic credit contracted for the fifth month running in December. In other news, the government recently announced its intention to repay roughly USD 280 million of debt held by elderly citizens. The move could widen the fiscal deficit this year and was criticized by the IMF.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Growth looks set to remain reasonable this year on robust private consumption, although a lukewarm global economy will drag on the commodity-driven export sector. A slowdown in China’s economy is the main downside risk as the majority of Mongolian exports—mostly coal and cooper—are sold to the Asian giant. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 5.5% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in 2021.

Mongolia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)3.03.13.13.23.2
GDP per capita (USD)4,0873,8473,5783,5854,020
GDP (USD bn)12.211.811.211.413.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.12.51.45.46.5
Unemployment Rate7.97.510.08.87.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-5.0-15.3-6.20.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.162.187.683.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)12.5-5.521.030.522.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.86.61.14.26.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0014.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.8-8.1-6.3-10.1-17.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.50.91.61.91.1
Exports (USD billion)5.84.74.96.27.0
Imports (USD billion)5.23.83.44.35.9
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-19.15.426.013.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.5-27.5-11.629.235.5
International Reserves (USD)1.71.31.33.03.5
External Debt (% of GDP)173187231247-  

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Mongolia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2,735-0.04 %Jan 01

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