Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter in annual terms, propelled by investment related to the colossal Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Although fixed investment growth slowed, it remained strong nonetheless, and the economy further benefitted from a build-up of inventories, likely related to industrial machinery imports. Overall, the external sector’s performance improved in the quarter as imports slowed while export growth picked up. However, private spending growth slowed to a near standstill. Meanwhile on 21 November, IMF staff declared that Mongolia was on track to meet all of its support program’s year-end targets.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Growth momentum should remain strong next year, as the Oyu Tolgoi expansion project will buoy FDI, industrial activity and the trade sector. Downside risks include lower commodity prices and softer coal demand from China, while low foreign reserves and bank capital present added vulnerabilities. FocusEconomics panelists see growth reaching 6.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2020.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.93.03.03.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,5984,1653,9964,0753,903
GDP (USD bn)13.312.211.912.311.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.45.1
Unemployment Rate7.97.97.510.08.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.1-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.457.162.187.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.212.5-5.521.030.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.512.86.61.14.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,6601,8881,9932,4882,426
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.5012.0013.0014.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,5161,8151,9682,1452,440
Current Account (% of GDP)-35.7-15.9-8.0-5.7-9.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.61.9
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.96.2
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.44.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.426.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.629.2
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.33.0
External Debt (% of GDP)150179192200230

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,650-0.04 %Jan 21

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