Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

The economy is on the mend, and recent data shows that exports soared in the first nine months of the year thanks largely to a stronger coal industry; this caused the current account deficit to shrink sharply over the same period. Following a recent staff visit to review the USD 434 million Extended Fund Facility, the IMF praised the tighter fiscal stance and progress on strengthening the banking sector. The Fund also judged that the 2018 budget, recently submitted to parliament, would enable the country to meet its 6.5% fiscal deficit target. At the end of October, the government rolled over USD 650 million of bonds at fairly low interest rates. This should strengthen both the external and fiscal positions, and boost international reserves.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Growth will be brisk in 2018 thanks to a strong coal industry, which should spill over to mining-related services. In addition, continued IMF support will anchor business confidence. However, the economy will remain vulnerable to commodity price swings and potential political instability. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 3.8% in 2018, up 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.9% in 2019.

Mongolia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.82.92.93.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,3774,5984,1653,9994,044
GDP (USD bn)12.413.312.211.912.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)12.511.68.12.51.1
Unemployment Rate8.27.97.98.07.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.8-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.367.376.578.190.3
Money (annual variation in %)18.724.212.5-5.520.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)14.310.512.86.61.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)13.2510.5012.0013.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,3781,6601,8881,9932,488
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,3531,5161,8151,9682,145
Current Account (% of GDP)-43.3-24.1-15.9-8.0-5.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.4-3.2-1.9-0.9-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.10.50.91.6
Exports (USD billion)4.44.35.84.74.9
Imports (USD billion)6.76.45.23.83.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-9.1-2.535.1-19.15.4
Imports (annual variation in %)2.1-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.6
International Reserves (USD)4.12.21.71.31.3
External Debt (% of GDP)124144172191202

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,440-0.04 %Dec 06

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