Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy appears to have posted a strong performance in 2018, according to preliminary annual data. Most notably, the government balanced its annual budget after logging considerable deficits in recent years, thanks to a nearly 30% jump in revenue amid strong commodity exports. Nevertheless, softening export momentum and consistently strong import growth may have caused the economy to decelerate in Q4, while likely also contributing to a worsening of the country’s current account balance. On the political front, parliamentary speaker Enkhbold Miyegombo and other members of parliament are currently embroiled in a corruption scandal and facing calls to resign, which could increase political instability.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Growth should remain strong this year, thanks to the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. However, the country is vulnerable to lower commodity prices due to slower global growth and a weaker Chinese economy, its main export market. Low foreign reserves also present added downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see growth reaching 6.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2020.

Mongolia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.92.93.03.03.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,5984,1653,9964,0753,903
GDP (USD bn)13.312.211.912.311.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.68.12.51.45.1
Unemployment Rate7.97.97.510.08.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.1-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.457.162.187.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.212.5-5.521.030.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.512.86.61.14.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.5012.0013.0014.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,6601,8881,9932,4882,426
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,5161,8151,9682,1452,440
Current Account (% of GDP)-35.7-15.9-8.0-5.7-9.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-1.9-0.9-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.10.50.91.61.9
Exports (USD billion)4.35.84.74.96.2
Imports (USD billion)6.45.23.83.44.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.535.1-19.15.426.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.629.2
International Reserves (USD)2.21.71.31.33.0
External Debt (% of GDP)150179192200230

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Mongolia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,628-0.04 %Jan 30

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