Mongolia Economic Outlook
October 20, 2020The economy shrank sharply in annual terms in Q2, albeit at a softer pace than in Q1. The contraction was caused by lower investment, while exports also shrank as restrictions to curb the global spread of Covid-19 suppressed demand abroad. However, both private and government consumption rose, easing the downturn. As for the third quarter, the economy showed some signs of recovery. Industrial production expanded for the first time this year in annual terms in September, with soaring mining and quarrying output driving the uptick. Externally, merchandise exports climbed at a double-digit pace in Q3, likely supported by greater demand stemming from the Chinese recovery. In other news, the government announced on 9 October that Japan is set to loan USD 230 million—worth about 1.6% of GDP—to Mongolia in a bid to support the economy amid the pandemic.
Mongolia Economic GrowthThe economy is set to contract this year, despite a likely recovery in Q4, as depressed foreign demand for commodities hampers the external sector. Going into 2021, GDP should rebound, supported by growing exports as foreign demand normalizes. Increased uncertainty in international commodity markets and elevated external debt pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project a GDP expansion of 5.8% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, our panelists also see growth of 5.8%.
Mongolia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||3,847||3,578||3,595||4,051||4,211|
|GDP (USD bn)||11.8||11.2||11.4||13.1||13.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.5||1.4||5.4||7.0||4.9|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.0||-15.3||-6.3||0.0||-1.7|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||62.1||87.6||84.6||73.3||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||-5.5||21.0||30.5||22.8||7.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||6.6||1.1||4.2||6.8||7.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||13.00||14.00||11.00||11.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-8.1||-6.3||-10.1||-16.8||-15.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-0.9||-0.7||-1.2||-2.2||-2.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||0.9||1.6||1.9||1.1||1.5|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.7||4.9||6.2||7.0||7.6|
|Imports (USD billion)||3.8||3.4||4.3||5.9||6.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-19.1||5.4||26.0||13.1||8.7|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-27.5||-11.6||29.2||35.5||4.3|
|International Reserves (USD)||1.3||1.3||3.0||3.5||4.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||187||231||252||224||-|
5 years of Mongolia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||2,735||-0.04 %||Jan 01|
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