Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

February 20, 2018

Economic activity accelerated markedly in 2017 following a soft patch in 2016 because of low commodity prices. The economy benefited from higher prices for key base metal commodities and a more stable macroeconomic environment, in part due to the implementation of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility program. International reserves in December 2017 more than doubled from the same period in 2016, and the fiscal gap as a percentage of GDP narrowed by around nine percentage points in the same period. Against this backdrop, the IMF praised the efforts made by the government to improve tax collection and keep spending under control. That said, it highlighted that Mongolia remains vulnerable to rising oil prices and a plunge in commodity exports.

Mongolia Economic Growth

While the all-important mining sector is expected to support growth this year, political uncertainties around the industry are mounting and could deter investment. Moreover, any downward swing in commodity prices could again bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy. FocusEconomics panelists see 4.3% growth in 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2019.

Mongolia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)4,3774,5984,1653,9994,044
GDP (USD bn)12.413.312.211.912.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)12.511.
Unemployment Rate8.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.8-1.2-3.9-5.0-15.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.367.376.578.190.3
Money (annual variation in %)18.724.212.5-5.520.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)14.310.512.86.61.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)13.2510.5012.0013.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,3781,6601,8881,9932,488
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,3531,5161,8151,9682,145
Current Account (% of GDP)-43.3-24.1-15.9-8.0-5.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.4-3.2-1.9-0.9-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-9.1-2.535.1-19.15.4
Imports (annual variation in %)2.1-5.8-17.5-27.5-11.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)124144172191202

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Mongolia Facts

Exchange Rate2,396-0.04 %Mar 15

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