Mongolia Economic Outlook
July 17, 2018Mongolia’s outlook is improving following a strong first quarter. In the first two months of Q2, exports surged on higher exports of mineral products, while industrial production rebounded in May thanks to healthy mining and quarrying output growth. The rebound in the mining sector bodes well for the economy, due to the sector’s importance in generating jobs, exports and fiscal revenue. In early July, Fitch upgraded the country’s long-term debt rating to B from B- owing to constrained government spending and rising tax revenues, which have increased strongly thanks to buoyant economic growth. During a staff visit in late June, the IMF stated that the country had exceeded Q1 fiscal and reserve targets, and approved a USD 37 million disbursement.
Mongolia Economic GrowthThe economy remains highly exposed to commodity price swings and dependent on FDI, presenting key downside risks. However, large ongoing mining projects like the Oyu Tolgoi mine expansion should carry the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see growth reaching 5.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2019.
Mongolia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,598||4,165||3,996||4,075||3,903|
|GDP (USD bn)||13.3||12.2||11.9||12.3||11.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||11.6||8.1||2.5||1.4||5.1|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.2||-3.9||-5.0||-15.1||-6.2|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||49.4||57.1||62.1||87.6||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||24.2||12.5||-5.5||21.0||30.5|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||10.5||12.8||6.6||1.1||4.2|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||10.50||12.00||13.00||14.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,660||1,888||1,993||2,488||2,426|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,516||1,815||1,968||2,145||2,440|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-35.7||-15.9||-8.0||-5.7||-9.7|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-4.7||-1.9||-0.9||-0.7||-1.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-2.1||0.5||0.9||1.6||1.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.3||5.8||4.7||4.9||6.2|
|Imports (USD billion)||6.4||5.2||3.8||3.4||4.3|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-2.5||35.1||-19.1||5.4||26.0|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-5.8||-17.5||-27.5||-11.6||29.2|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.2||1.7||1.3||1.3||3.0|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||150||179||192||200||230|
5 years of Mongolia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||2,461||-0.04 %||Aug 17|
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