Mongolia Economic Forecast

Mongolia Economic Outlook

August 24, 2021

A detailed release shows GDP declined 0.5% in annual terms in Q2, after growing 15.1% and surpassing pre-pandemic levels in Q1. Looking at the details of the print, the external sector deteriorated, as softer demand from China weighed on exports according to Chinese customs data. That said, domestic demand dynamics strengthened, with private spending, government consumption and fixed investment all improving in the quarter. Moving on to Q3, economic activity has likely been suppressed by high numbers of Covid-19 cases, with industrial data showing a cumulative slowdown in July. Daily cases have fallen since their peak in mid-June, but they remain high in August. That said, restrictions remain relatively relaxed as over 60% of the population is now fully vaccinated.

Mongolia Economic Growth

Activity is set to rebound this year amid buoyant fixed investment, a recovering global economy and looser restrictions. Moreover, a swift vaccination campaign will likely prevent any further fallout from the pandemic. That said, still-elevated Covid-19 cases at home and abroad are a key downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists project a GDP expansion of 6.6% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in 2022.

Mongolia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.13.13.23.23.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,8473,5783,5954,0514,211
GDP (USD bn)11.811.211.413.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.51.45.47.04.9
Unemployment Rate7.510.08.87.710.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-15.3-6.30.0-1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.187.684.673.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)-5.521.030.522.87.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.61.14.26.87.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)13.0014.0011.0011.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.1-6.3-10.1-16.8-15.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.7-1.2-2.2-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.91.61.91.11.5
Exports (USD billion)4.74.96.27.07.6
Imports (USD billion)3.83.44.35.96.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.15.426.013.18.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.5-11.629.235.54.3
International Reserves (USD)1.31.33.03.54.3
External Debt (% of GDP)187231252224-  

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Mongolia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2,735-0.04 %Jan 01

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