Lebanon Economic Forecast

Lebanon Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

Nearly two months after general elections, the formation of a government is still underway, as squabbles over ministerial posts and infighting among several groups over their representation in the cabinet continue. Foreign investors have pressed for the need to form a new government in a timely manner to kickstart a struggling economy, which is suffocated by high debts and twin deficits, and to maintain business confidence. Similarly, in a recent staff visit the IMF commented on the urgent need to improve the government’s finances, suggesting increasing VAT rates, gradually reducing costly subsidies and limiting public wages. More positively, the external sector has strengthened so far this year, with export growth substantially outpacing import growth.

Lebanon Economic Growth

The main risks to the macroeconomic outlook are the sizable fiscal and current account deficits and the high public and external debt levels, which are not expected to improve significantly over the forecast horizon. However, household expenditure should remain robust on the back of stronger services and tourism sectors. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 1.9% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2019.

Lebanon Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)4.44.44.44.54.5
GDP per capita (USD)10,37110,80211,18811,293-  
GDP (USD bn)45.947.849.550.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.62.00.81.0-  
Unemployment Rate6.26.26.26.26.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.7-6.0-7.3-9.2-7.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)138139142151153
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.1-0.7-3.43.15.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.81.9-3.8-0.84.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5081,5081,5081,5081,508
Current Account (% of GDP)-26.7-28.1-19.6-23.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-15.3-17.5-15.0-15.4-15.9
Exports (USD billion)5.24.54.03.94.0
Imports (USD billion)20.522.119.019.419.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.9-12.2-12.5-1.32.4
Imports (annual variation in %)0.87.7-14.12.12.8
International Reserves (USD)36.739.538.843.343.5
External Debt (% of GDP)67.462.662.463.4-  

Sample Report

5 years of Lebanon economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Lebanon Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1,5110.0 %Jul 17
Stock Market1,0380.37 %Jul 17

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form