Lebanon Economic Outlook
An economy in deep crisis:
Lebanon has been in a prolonged economic meltdown since 2019, marked by hyperinflation, a collapsed banking sector, and soaring poverty levels. The Lebanese pound has lost over 90% of its value, drastically reducing purchasing power and leading to widespread economic hardship. A lack of foreign exchange reserves has crippled imports, causing fuel, medicine, and food shortages.
Banking sector collapse and debt crisis:Lebanon’s once-thriving banking sector has effectively collapsed, with depositors locked out of their savings due to capital controls. The country defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020—the first default in its history—further deterring foreign investment. Government corruption and financial mismanagement have exacerbated the crisis, with no clear recovery plan in place.
Limited economic activity and brain drain:Key sectors such as tourism, real estate, and financial services have been devastated by the crisis. Businesses struggle to operate amid currency instability, power outages, and rising operational costs. Many skilled professionals have emigrated in search of better opportunities, worsening Lebanon’s economic outlook.
Lebanon’s economic outlook:Without urgent reforms, Lebanon’s economic situation will remain dire, with difficulties compounded by damage from Hezbollah-Israel fighting. While negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have stalled, a bailout program remains the best hope for recovery. Structural changes, anti-corruption measures, and banking sector reform are crucial, but political paralysis continues to block meaningful progress. The road to recovery will be long and uncertain.
Lebanon's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 21.0 billion in 2022.
Nominal GDP of USD 21.0 billion in 2022.
GDP per capita of USD 3,654 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 3,654 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 2.4% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 2.4% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2021, services accounted for 88.6% of overall GDP, manufacturing 1.4%, other industrial activity 8.8%, and agriculture 1.2%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 140.4% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 3.6%, fixed investment 1.2%, and net exports -45.2%.International trade
In 2023, manufactured products made up 56.0% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 9.9%, food 16.4%, ores and metals 8.6% and agricultural raw materials 0.5%, with other categories accounting for 8.6% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 42.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 27.2%, food 16.3%, ores and metals 1.3% and agricultural raw materials 1.0%, with other goods accounting for 11.4% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 3.80 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 16.70 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded an average annual decrease of 2.4% in the decade to 2022. To read more about GDP growth in Lebanon, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Lebanon's fiscal deficit averaged 7.3% of GDP in the decade to 2021. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 10.7% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Lebanon's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 62.6% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Lebanon inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Lebanon's monetary policy rate ended 2023 at 20.00%, up from 10.00% a decade earlier. See our Lebanon monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the pound weakened by 98.3% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the pound, click here.
Economic situation in Lebanon
In 2024, the economy likely contracted at the sharpest pace since 2021 on war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia; the conflict led to considerable death, injury, infrastructure damage and population displacement. A survey of firms points to a stabilization in private-sector activity so far this year, amid a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah plus the election of a new president and cabinet following over two years of political paralysis. That said, the economy is still in a depressed state due to war damage on top of a pre-existing banking crisis. In March, the IMF concluded a visit to the country. The Fund urged the authorities to formulate a comprehensive reform plan, a pre-requisite for financial support. However, reform progress could be complicated by powerful vested interests.Lebanon Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.43 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 13 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Lebanon in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 43 economic indicators for Lebanon from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Lebanon economy. To download a sample report on the Lebanon's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.