Lebanon Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy remained deeply depressed in Q3, hit by a combination of the currency crisis, Covid-19, and heightened political and social instability. The downturn was accentuated by the Beirut port explosion on 4 August, which caused billions of dollars of damage and left hundreds of thousands of people temporarily homeless. The private sector PMI was mired in contractionary territory throughout the quarter, amid declines in output and new orders. Turning to Q4, prospects appear bleak, as fresh Covid-19 restrictions were implemented in mid-October, including local lockdowns and the nationwide closure of bars and nightclubs. In politics, former PM Saad Hariri was recently tasked with forming a government, and has pledged to form a technocratic cabinet to implement the structural reforms necessary to secure vital international funding.
Lebanon Economic GrowthAfter this year’s collapse, GDP is seen declining further next year, albeit at a softer pace, due to weak sentiment and the lingering impact of the country’s financial crisis. A worsening of the viral outbreak, potential further social unrest and doubts over the government’s commitment to reform and ability to secure external funding pose downside risks. Our panelists see the economy contracting 1.6% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before expanding 1.9% in 2022.
Lebanon Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||8,541||8,530||8,779||9,294||8,803|
|GDP (USD bn)||50.0||51.2||53.4||56.6||53.4|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||0.4||1.6||0.9||-1.9||-5.6|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-7.9||-9.6||-7.0||-11.0||-10.9|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||141||146||150||155||171|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||-3.4||3.1||5.0||4.0||7.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||-3.7||-0.8||4.4||6.1||2.9|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,508||1,508||1,510||1,512||1,509|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-17.1||-20.4||-22.7||-23.6||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-13.6||-14.0||-14.4||-15.1||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.0||3.9||4.0||3.8||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||17.6||17.9||18.4||18.9||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-12.5||-1.2||2.5||-4.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-14.1||2.1||2.8||2.5||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||38.8||43.3||43.5||40.6||38.2|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||135||138||139||140||-|
5 years of Lebanon economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,513||0.0 %||Dec 31|
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Lebanon Economic News
June 22, 2020
Economic conditions have deteriorated significantly in recent months amid spiraling inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic and sociopolitical instability, after the country defaulted on its debt for the first time ever in March.