Lebanon Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
Economic conditions remain challenging. During the first four months of 2022, the private-sector PMI was in contractionary territory—while remaining higher than the average reading for 2021—and inflation averaged over 200%. Moreover, the war in Ukraine is hitting an already strained food supply, as the vast majority of wheat imported into Lebanon before the war came from Ukraine. The recent approval of a USD 150 million World Bank loan will only go part way to ensuring short-term food security. Meanwhile, general elections were held in mid-May. Hezbollah and its allies lost their parliamentary majority, with over a dozen anti-establishment candidates elected and the Lebanese Forces emerging as the largest party. A fractured parliament and the confessional power-sharing arrangement mean that the appointment of a new prime minister and president will take time, delaying the arrival of IMF support.Lebanon Economic Growth
The economy is now seen stagnating in 2022, after a string of downgrades by our panelists in recent months. Hyperinflation and shortages of basic goods mean conditions will remain extremely challenging. The prompt formation of a government and the implementation of reforms will be key to stabilizing activity, but the country’s recent history suggests the former is unlikely. Our panelists see the economy expanding 0.1% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2023.Lebanon Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 8,541 | 8,530 | 8,779 | 9,294 | 8,803 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 50.0 | 51.2 | 53.4 | 56.6 | 53.4 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | -1.9 | -5.6 |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.9 | -9.6 | -7.0 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 141 | 146 | 150 | 155 | 171 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | -3.4 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -3.7 | -0.8 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,510 | 1,512 | 1,509 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -17.1 | -20.4 | -22.7 | -23.6 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -13.6 | -14.0 | -14.4 | -15.1 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 17.6 | 17.9 | 18.4 | 18.9 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -12.5 | -1.2 | 2.5 | -4.8 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -14.1 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 38.8 | 43.3 | 43.5 | 40.6 | 38.2 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 135 | 138 | 139 | 140 | - |
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Lebanon Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,513 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
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Lebanon Economic News
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Lebanon: Lebanon sinks deeper into the economic abyss as IMF talks stall
June 22, 2020
Economic conditions have deteriorated significantly in recent months amid spiraling inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic and sociopolitical instability, after the country defaulted on its debt for the first time ever in March.
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