Lebanon Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018Activity in the economy remained sluggish in January-September, against a backdrop of prolonged political deadlock. The real estate sector—a cornerstone of the economy—seems to have performed poorly in the period, with cement deliveries contracting year-on-year and construction permits dropping significantly, while the merchandise trade balance widened despite robust export growth. More positively, the Central Bank’s economic activity index averaged higher than in January–September 2017 period. Looking at the fourth and final quarter, October’s PMI for the private sector highlighted ongoing deteriorations in operating conditions and more job losses. Moreover, prolonged political deadlock risks postponement of necessary reforms which are needed to unlock conditionals loans, boost investor confidence and kickstart the economy.
Lebanon Economic GrowthHigh public indebtedness and a possible slowdown in the real estate sector cloud the outlook. Delays in the formation of a new government pose further downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.
Lebanon Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||10,371||10,802||11,188||11,293||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||45.9||47.8||49.5||50.4||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.6||2.0||0.8||1.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-8.7||-6.0||-7.3||-9.2||-7.3|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||138||139||142||151||153|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||1.1||-0.7||-3.4||3.1||5.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||1.9||-3.8||-0.8||4.5|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,508||1,508||1,508||1,508||1,508|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-26.7||-28.1||-19.6||-23.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-15.3||-17.5||-15.0||-15.4||-15.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||5.2||4.5||4.0||3.9||4.0|
|Imports (USD billion)||20.5||22.1||19.0||19.4||19.9|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-7.9||-12.2||-12.5||-1.3||2.4|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||0.8||7.7||-14.1||2.1||2.8|
|International Reserves (USD)||36.7||39.5||38.8||43.3||43.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||67.4||62.6||62.4||63.4||-|
5 years of Lebanon economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,507||0.0 %||Dec 12|
|Stock Market||951||0.37 %||Dec 12|
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