Lebanon Economic Outlook
July 2, 2019
The economy remains in a bad way, with the private-sector PMI falling in May on a sharper decline in new orders. Moreover, in Q1 the coincident indicator—which measures economic activity—was down year-on-year, while building permits and cement sales also plunged, boding poorly for the construction sector. A glimmer of positive data came on the external front; exports were up in annual terms in February and March, likely thanks to greater stability in Syria. In politics, the draft budget announced in May has yet to be approved by Parliament. The approval and full implementation of the budget’s austerity measures will be key to unlocking USD 11 billion of donor funds and rebuilding shattered investor confidence.Lebanon Economic Growth
The economy should gain some momentum this year thanks to stronger exports, tourism and Central Bank stimulus measures. Moreover, the enactment of the 2019 budget could boost business confidence. However, growth will still be measly, weighed on by a tighter fiscal stance. Regional instability and an onerous public debt burden pose downside risks. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 1.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.Lebanon Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 8,883 | 8,620 | 8,541 | 8,530 | 8,779 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 46.9 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 51.2 | 53.4 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -9.0 | -6.4 | -7.9 | -9.6 | -7.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 135 | 138 | 141 | 146 | 149 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 1.1 | -0.7 | -3.4 | 3.1 | 5.0 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 4.8 | 1.9 | -3.8 | -0.8 | 4.5 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,508 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -25.4 | -24.0 | -16.7 | -20.5 | -22.7 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -15.3 | -15.0 | -13.3 | -14.0 | -14.4 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 20.5 | 19.6 | 17.3 | 17.9 | 18.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -7.9 | -12.1 | -12.5 | -1.2 | 2.5 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 0.8 | -4.5 | -11.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 36.7 | 39.5 | 38.8 | 43.3 | 43.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 132 | 133 | 135 | 137 | 138 |
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Lebanon Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,508 | 0.0 % | Jul 11 |
| Stock Market | 855 | 0.37 % | Jul 10 |
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