Lebanon Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019
Economic growth likely remained anemic in Q4 2018 as construction permits and cement deliveries decreased. However, the Central Bank’s monthly economic activity index ticked upwards in Q4 compared to Q3. Meanwhile, parliament backed the new government’s mission statement in mid-February and the cabinet reaffirmed its commitment to reforming public finances and the economy. This should prop up investor confidence in the ailing economy and help unlock vast sums of donor funds pledged at a Paris conference last April. Commenting on developments, Moody’s stated in early February that the formation of the government was positive for the country’s credit rating, although downside risks remain abound.Lebanon Economic Growth
Much-needed reform should boost the economy by unlocking billions of U.S. dollars in donor funds, shoring up public finances and improving investor and consumer confidence. However, the large twin deficits and a sky-high public debt burden pose significant downside risks. Our panelist expect the economy to grow 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.Lebanon Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 10,371 | 10,802 | 11,188 | 11,293 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 45.9 | 47.8 | 49.5 | 50.4 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.7 | -6.0 | -7.3 | -9.2 | -7.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 138 | 139 | 142 | 151 | 153 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 1.1 | -0.7 | -3.4 | 3.1 | 5.0 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 4.8 | 1.9 | -3.8 | -0.8 | 4.5 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,508 | 1,508 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -26.7 | -28.1 | -19.6 | -23.3 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -15.3 | -17.5 | -15.0 | -15.4 | -15.9 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 20.5 | 22.1 | 19.0 | 19.4 | 19.9 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -7.9 | -12.2 | -12.5 | -1.3 | 2.4 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 0.8 | 7.7 | -14.1 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 36.7 | 39.5 | 38.8 | 43.3 | 43.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.4 | 62.6 | 62.4 | 63.4 | - |
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Lebanon Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,508 | 0.0 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 976 | 0.37 % | Mar 11 |
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