Lebanon Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Economic conditions remain challenging. During the first four months of 2022, the private-sector PMI was in contractionary territory—while remaining higher than the average reading for 2021—and inflation averaged over 200%. Moreover, the war in Ukraine is hitting an already strained food supply, as the vast majority of wheat imported into Lebanon before the war came from Ukraine. The recent approval of a USD 150 million World Bank loan will only go part way to ensuring short-term food security. Meanwhile, general elections were held in mid-May. Hezbollah and its allies lost their parliamentary majority, with over a dozen anti-establishment candidates elected and the Lebanese Forces emerging as the largest party. A fractured parliament and the confessional power-sharing arrangement mean that the appointment of a new prime minister and president will take time, delaying the arrival of IMF support.
Lebanon Economic GrowthThe economy is now seen stagnating in 2022, after a string of downgrades by our panelists in recent months. Hyperinflation and shortages of basic goods mean conditions will remain extremely challenging. The prompt formation of a government and the implementation of reforms will be key to stabilizing activity, but the country’s recent history suggests the former is unlikely. Our panelists see the economy expanding 0.1% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2023.
Lebanon Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||8,541||8,530||8,779||9,294||8,803|
|GDP (USD bn)||50.0||51.2||53.4||56.6||53.4|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||0.4||1.6||0.9||-1.9||-5.6|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-7.9||-9.6||-7.0||-11.0||-10.9|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||141||146||150||155||171|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||-3.4||3.1||5.0||4.0||7.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||-3.7||-0.8||4.4||6.1||2.9|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,508||1,508||1,510||1,512||1,509|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-17.1||-20.4||-22.7||-23.6||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-13.6||-14.0||-14.4||-15.1||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.0||3.9||4.0||3.8||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||17.6||17.9||18.4||18.9||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-12.5||-1.2||2.5||-4.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-14.1||2.1||2.8||2.5||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||38.8||43.3||43.5||40.6||38.2|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||135||138||139||140||-|
5 years of Lebanon economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,513||0.0 %||Dec 31|
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Lebanon Economic News
June 22, 2020
Economic conditions have deteriorated significantly in recent months amid spiraling inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic and sociopolitical instability, after the country defaulted on its debt for the first time ever in March.