Kenya Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
The economy should have recovered in Q3, albeit frailly, after contracting for the first time in at least a decade in Q2 due to the pandemic. Exports increased in July–August after shrinking in Q2, while the fall in imports softened in the same period. However, this still points to weakened domestic demand. Moving forward, the situation was seemingly upbeat at the outset of Q4: Business conditions improved notably in October, with the private sector PMI climbing to a record high, boosted by strengthening aggregate demand as more restrictions were eased. However, a recent rise in Covid-19 cases prompted a snap-back of containment measures in early November, boding ill for activity. In other news, the government aims to borrow an additional KES 1.0 trillion (around USD 9.2 billion) for the current fiscal year (1 July 2020–30 June 2021) as revenues have dwindled, and is seeking a second IMF loan.Kenya Economic Growth
Economic activity will suffer this year at the hands of Covid-19, but is projected to grow strongly next year. However, a growing public debt burden will put pressure on credit ratings and minimize room for fiscal stimulus: Revenues have been hit by the pandemic and the country might face difficulties meeting its existing debt obligations. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.0% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 5.4% in 2022.Kenya Economy Data
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Kenya Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 12.20 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 101.4 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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Kenya Economic News
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Kenya: PMI climbs to highest level on record in October
November 10, 2020
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank Kenya—climbed to 59.1 in October from September’s 56.3.
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Kenya: Inflation increases in October
November 3, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.95% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms in October, following September’s flat reading.
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Kenya: GDP contracts for first time in at least 10 years in Q2
October 15, 2020
GDP shrank 5.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, swinging from the 4.9% growth recorded in the first quarter, according to Kenya’s Statistical Institute (KNBS).
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Kenya: PMI increases in September to highest level since April 2018
October 5, 2020
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank Kenya—increased to 56.3 in September from August’s 53.0.
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Kenya: Inflation ticks down in September
September 30, 2020
Consumer prices were flat in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms in September, following August’s 0.2% increase.
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