Kenya Economic Outlook
September 17, 2019Growth likely remained stable in the second quarter, following a deceleration in the first quarter which saw drought conditions eat into agricultural output. Merchandise exports contracted heavily year-on-year, as the effects of the drought appear to have spilled over into Q2. However, despite the external sector’s downturn, the PMI, on average, remained in expansionary territory in Q2 as firms reported upbeat production and stronger demand. Turning to the third quarter, the PMI for July–August averaged higher than that of Q2 due to upbeat new orders, suggesting that private sector activity remained resilient. That said, limited access to credit continued to thwart business sentiment. Meanwhile, in politics, the government’s plan to boost credit access for SMEs by repealing an interest rate capping law was blocked by the opposition in early September on grounds it would raise borrowing costs.
Kenya Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to ease this year as erratic weather conditions weigh on agricultural output and, in turn, on household spending. Nevertheless, upbeat fixed investment should support growth this year and next, as the government moves forward with its “Big Four Agenda” infrastructure projects. The sizeable fiscal deficit remains a concern, however. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.6% in 2019 and 5.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
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|Bond Yield||11.50||0.0 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||103.9||0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||0.4||0.0 %||Sep 04|
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Kenya Economic News
September 4, 2019
Business conditions in the Kenyan private sector improved again in August, although more weakly than the previous month.
August 30, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.90% over the previous month in August, following a 0.36% month-on-month drop in July.
August 5, 2019
Businesses conditions in the Kenyan private sector continued to improve, albeit at a softer pace, in July.
July 31, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.36% over the previous month in July, following a 0.69% month-on-month drop in June.
July 24, 2019
At its meeting on 24 July, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Kenya’s Central Bank decided to hold the central bank rate stable at 9.00%, where it has been since July 2018.