Kenya Economic Outlook
December 13, 2019Growth seems to have remained firm in the third quarter, on the heels of a robust second quarter. Private sector activity was likely more upbeat in Q3, as reflected by the PMI averaging higher compared to the prior quarter. In particular, the solid pace of job creation in the quarter ought to have supported household consumption. That said, the external sector likely dragged on overall growth as merchandise exports continued to contract. Turning to Q4, incoming data hints at weaker momentum: The PMI deteriorated, on average, in October–November compared to Q3 amid weakened business sentiment, which dropped to a 33-month low in November. Meanwhile, at the conclusion of its 18-22 November visit, the IMF praised Kenya’s recent economic performance and removal of the interest rate cap. It also hinted at further discussions for a new precautionary stand-by arrangement in early 2020, which would help cushion the economy from exogenous shocks.
Kenya Economic GrowthEconomic activity is seen picking up next year amid sturdier domestic demand. Buoyant household consumption is expected to underpin the expansion, while solid public expenditure should provide further support to growth. However, trade war uncertainties, adverse weather conditions and a wide fiscal deficit pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% in 2021.
Kenya Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||12.20||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||101.4||0.05 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.4||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Kenya Economic News
January 6, 2020
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank—came in at 53.3 in December, up from November’s 53.2 reading and thus climbing further above the 50-threshold that indicates an improvement in business conditions. New orders rose sharply in December amid increased referrals from clients as did new export orders on stronger demand from European markets.
December 4, 2019
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank—came in at 53.2 in November, matching October’s reading, thus staying above the critical 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction and signaling a healthy rate of growth in activity.
November 30, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.41% over the previous month in November, up from October’s 0.28% increase.
November 25, 2019
At its meeting on 25 November, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Kenya’s Central Bank decided to axe the central bank rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, marking the first cut in 16 months.
November 5, 2019
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank—fell to 53.2 in October from 54.1 in September, thus moving closer to the critical 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction and signaling a softer pace of growth in activity.