Kenya Economic Forecast

Kenya Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

Following Q2’s over 10-year high growth rate, GDP is expected to have expanded at a solid albeit softer rate in Q3, largely due to a less favorable base effect. The private sector PMI remained in expansionary territory in the quarter, averaging well above Q2’s levels, while goods exports grew at a double-digit rate in July–August, hinting at healthy foreign demand. Underlying dynamics appear to have remained positive in the final stretch of the year, as suggested by the private sector PMI hitting an over one-year high in November, on strong client growth following the lifting of the nationwide curfew in late October. On top of this, robust remittance growth in October–November hints at improved household spending, while relatively low Covid-19 cases for most of the quarter bode well for overall activity.

Kenya Economic Growth

GDP is expected to expand at a solid rate in 2022, sustained by strong domestic demand. The ongoing vaccination campaign will further spur household and capital spending. That said, a projected deterioration in the country’s public finances and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2022 legislative and presidential elections cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.4% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2023.

Kenya Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)44.245.546.748.049.4
GDP per capita (USD)1,4331,5281,6851,8321,931
GDP (USD bn)63.369.578.788.095.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.6-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.1-7.7-9.0-7.0-7.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)50.254.556.059.362.1
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)102.3102.5103.2101.9101.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5010.0010.009.008.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)98.27101.5103.4101.3102.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.8-4.9-6.2-4.9-5.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.3-3.4-4.9-4.3-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-10.1-8.5-10.9-11.4-11.8
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)15.914.216.617.417.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.4-
Imports (annual variation in %)-13.8-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)  

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Kenya Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield12.200.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate101.40.05 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.40.0 %Jan 07

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