Kenya Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019The economy likely lost traction again in the final quarter of 2018 after expanding at a robust, albeit softening, pace in the third quarter on strong agricultural and hydro-powered electricity output. Rising inflation, a continued slowdown in remittance inflows and weaker credit growth likely weighed on private consumption in Q3. Entering the fourth quarter, a pick-up in remittances and an acceleration in credit in October likely stimulated greater household spending. Moreover, PMI readings for Q4 indicate private sector activity remained resilient. On the downside, gloomy corporate earnings and job cuts prompted the Kenya Revenue Authority to reduce its revenue target for the current fiscal year by 5.0%. In other news, a hotel and office complex in the capital came under attack from Al-Shabaab militants on 15 January; the latest in a wave of terrorist activity across the continent that threatens to undermine foreign investment and the tourism sector.
Kenya Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to remain strong in 2019, thanks to solid domestic demand. Private consumption should continue to expand at a healthy pace, buoyed by solid remittances inflows and a tight labor market, while upbeat business confidence should continue to support strong fixed investment growth. The continuation of the interest rate cap on commercial bank lending rates will likely curb the availability of credit, however, and hamper the government’s ability to secure additional financing from the IMF. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.9% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.7% in 2020.
Kenya Economy Data
5 years of Kenya economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||12.51||0.0 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||100.2||0.05 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Feb 14|
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Kenya Economic News
February 5, 2019
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank, fell to 53.2 in January from 53.6 in December.
January 31, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.35% over the previous month in January, following a 0.65% month-on-month rise in December.
January 28, 2019
At its latest meeting held on 28 January, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Kenya’s Central Bank kept the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 9.00%.
January 4, 2019
Private sector activity picked up in December, reflected by a rise in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank.
December 31, 2018
The latest national accounts data released by Kenya’s National Bureau of Statistics on 31 December showed that the economy grew at a strong pace again in the third quarter, despite losing some momentum from the previous quarter.