Kenya Economic Forecast

Kenya Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

Incoming data for the final quarter of 2019 is mixed, after the economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years in the third quarter amid easing activity in the all-important agricultural sector. Merchandise export growth rebounded strongly in Q4, while credit growth to the private sector gained traction in October–November, which should have supported fixed investment and private consumption. On the other hand, the PMI deteriorated somewhat in Q4 from the previous quarter as cash flow problems weighed on private sector activity and heavy rainfalls delayed firms’ delivery times. Meanwhile, recent developments bode poorly for the outset of 2020. In January, the PMI fell to a nine-month low in January, while the worst locust plague in 70 years threatens agricultural production and food security.

Kenya Economic Growth

Growth is seen picking up this year underpinned by strong fixed investment growth amid the implementation of “Big Four” projects and buoyant household consumption. However, a wide fiscal deficit, adverse weather conditions and the recent locust infestation pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% in 2021.

Kenya Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)1,4341,4331,5281,6811,835
GDP (USD bn)61.763.369.578.588.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)14.26.6-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.8-8.1-7.7-9.1-7.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.950.254.556.159.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.614.
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.5011.5010.0010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)90.55102.3102.5103.2101.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)87.9598.27101.5103.4101.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.3-6.8-4.9-6.2-4.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.4-4.3-3.4-4.9-4.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-10.9-10.1-8.5-10.9-11.4
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)16.915.914.216.617.4
Exports (annual variation in %)2.7-3.4-
Imports (annual variation in %)5.2-13.8-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)27.531.

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Kenya Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield12.200.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate101.40.05 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.40.0 %Jan 07

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