Kenya Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018Private sector activity slightly moderated in the third quarter from the previous quarter due to waning business confidence and concerns over the new fiscal year tax measures. On the upside, the arrival of the short rainy season should buoy agricultural output and hydro-powered electricity generation in the fourth quarter. An acceleration in activity at the outset of Q4 hinted at this, reflected by a rise in the PMI in October. However, the advent of heavy rains—which have intensified in recent years—have heightened the risk of floods and landslides, which could lead to disruptions. On the upside, rising remittances have bolstered household incomes and, in turn, private spending, helping to narrow the current account deficit. The latest data shows that remittances rose more than 55% in Q2, while the current account deficit fell by more than 30%.
Kenya Economic GrowthRobust growth is expected next year, supported by strong domestic demand and healthy capital inflows. Solid private consumption underpinned by buoyant remittance inflows, coupled with an acceleration in fixed investment growth fueled by stronger business confidence, should drive the economy. However, the continuation of the interest rate cap on commercial bank lending rates could constrain the government’s ability to secure additional funds from the IMF and thus finance the FY 2018–2019 budget. This, compounded by the government’s fiscal tightening measures, cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% again in 2020.
Kenya Economy Data
5 years of Kenya economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||12.51||0.0 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||102.7||0.05 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||0.2||0.0 %||Dec 11|
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Kenya Economic News
December 5, 2018
Private sector activity weakened slightly in November, reflected by a decline in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank.
November 27, 2018
At its latest meeting held on 27 November, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Kenya’s Central Bank opted to keep the Central Bank Rate (CBR) on hold at 9.00%.
November 5, 2018
In October, activity picked up in Kenya’s private sector following a deterioration in the previous month, as reflected by a rise in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank.
October 31, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.79% over the previous month in October, contrasting a 1.02% month-on-month increase in September.
October 3, 2018
Kenya’s private sector lost ground in September, as indicated by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank.