Kenya Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
The economy should have recovered in Q3, albeit frailly, after contracting for the first time in at least a decade in Q2 due to the pandemic. Exports increased in July–August after shrinking in Q2, while the fall in imports softened in the same period. However, this still points to weakened domestic demand. Moving forward, the situation was seemingly upbeat at the outset of Q4: Business conditions improved notably in October, with the private sector PMI climbing to a record high, boosted by strengthening aggregate demand as more restrictions were eased. However, a recent rise in Covid-19 cases prompted a snap-back of containment measures in early November, boding ill for activity. In other news, the government aims to borrow an additional KES 1.0 trillion (around USD 9.2 billion) for the current fiscal year (1 July 2020–30 June 2021) as revenues have dwindled, and is seeking a second IMF loan.Kenya Economic Growth
Economic activity will suffer this year at the hands of Covid-19, but is projected to grow strongly next year. However, a growing public debt burden will put pressure on credit ratings and minimize room for fiscal stimulus: Revenues have been hit by the pandemic and the country might face difficulties meeting its existing debt obligations. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.0% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 5.4% in 2022.Kenya Economy Data
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Kenya Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 12.20 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 101.4 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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Kenya Economic News
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Kenya: Inflation comes in at highest level since February 2020 in June
July 9, 2021
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.12% over the previous month in June, slowing down from May’s 0.20% rise.
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Kenya: PMI declines in June but remains in expansionary territory
July 5, 2021
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Kenya Bank—dropped to 51.0 in June, from May’s four-month high of 52.5.
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Kenya: Government unveils record FY 2021–2022 budget, but still aims for fiscal consolidation
June 10, 2021
On 10 June, the government presented a record KES 3.7 trillion (around USD 34 billion) budget for the fiscal year 2021–2022—which starts on 1 July and runs through 30 June 2022—representing a 9.0% increase over the prior year’s KES 3.4 trillion (around USD 33 billion) budget.
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Kenya: Private sector activity rebounds strongly in May; PMI hits four-month high
June 4, 2021
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Kenya Bank—jumped to a four-month high of 52.5 in May, improving markedly from April’s 41.5.
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Kenya: Inflation ticks up in May
May 31, 2021
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.20% over the previous month in May, slowing down from April’s 0.82% rise.
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