Kenya Economic Outlook
February 25, 2020
Incoming data for the final quarter of 2019 is mixed, after the economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years in the third quarter amid easing activity in the all-important agricultural sector. Merchandise export growth rebounded strongly in Q4, while credit growth to the private sector gained traction in October–November, which should have supported fixed investment and private consumption. On the other hand, the PMI deteriorated somewhat in Q4 from the previous quarter as cash flow problems weighed on private sector activity and heavy rainfalls delayed firms’ delivery times. Meanwhile, recent developments bode poorly for the outset of 2020. In January, the PMI fell to a nine-month low in January, while the worst locust plague in 70 years threatens agricultural production and food security.Kenya Economic Growth
Growth is seen picking up this year underpinned by strong fixed investment growth amid the implementation of “Big Four” projects and buoyant household consumption. However, a wide fiscal deficit, adverse weather conditions and the recent locust infestation pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP growth of 5.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% in 2021.Kenya Economy Data
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Kenya Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 12.20 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 101.4 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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Kenya Economic News
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Kenya: Central Bank slashes rate to eight-and-a-half-year low amid worsening economic backdrop
March 23, 2020
On its 23 March meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Kenya’s Central Bank slashed the Central Bank Rate by a larger-than-expected 100 basis points to 7.25%, taking it to the lowest point since September 2011.
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Kenya: Kenyan shilling plunges to over four-year low against the U.S. dollar
March 23, 2020
The Kenyan shilling (KES) plummeted against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks as fears over the impact of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic rattled markets.
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Kenya: Inflation jumps to ten-month high February
March 17, 2020
Consumer prices increased 1.38% over the previous month in February, up markedly from January’s 0.31% rise, and marking the fastest increase since April 2019.
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Kenya: PMI falls to lowest level in over two years in February
March 4, 2020
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank—fell from 49.7 in January to 49.0 in February, the lowest reading since November 2017.
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Kenya: Private sector PMI drops at the start of the year
February 5, 2020
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank—fell markedly to 49.7 in January from 53.3 in December, thus dropping below the 50-threshold that indicates a deterioration in business conditions in the private sector for the first time since April 2019. January’s drop largely reflected falling output and slowing new order growth.
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