Iran Economic Forecast

Iran Economic Outlook

June 5, 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal on 8 May represented a massive blow to Iran’s growth prospects and casted a long shadow about the future of the country. Iran’s authorities have not decided yet if the country will also exit from the 2015 nuclear deal as negotiations continue with the remaining participants of the agreement—China, the European Union and Russia. The key hurdle is whether Europe will be able to by-pass secondary sanctions from the U.S., which target non-US companies doing business with Iran. While the official exchange rate weakened only marginally in May, the rial traded in the black market plunged markedly to 64,500 USD per IRR.

Iran Economic Growth

Iran’s economic outlook has been badly hit by the U.S. decision to reinstate economic sanctions against the country. A deterioration in Iran’s economic conditions will exacerbate structural weaknesses and fuel protests. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth accelerating to 3.1% in SH 2018, down 1.0 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In SH 2019, growth is expected to edge up to 2.8%.

Iran Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)77.478.579.580.581.4
GDP per capita (USD)5,6295,4514,9315,272-  
GDP (USD bn)436428392424-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.24.6-1.313.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate10.511.511.812.512.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-1.1-1.7-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)10.711.841.648.940.9
Money (annual variation in %)38.822.330.023.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)19.616.28.411.88.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)34.715.611.99.09.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24,77427,13830,13032,37636,074
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18,54426,01629,12831,00233,384
Current Account (% of GDP)5.83.20.33.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)25.113.61.216.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.318.15.420.8-  
Exports (USD billion)92.989.063.084.0-  
Imports (USD billion)63.670.957.663.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.5-4.2-29.233.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-7.511.5-18.79.5-  
International Reserves (USD)118126128121-  

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