Iran Economic Outlook
October 6, 2020
The economic picture remained bleak in recent months, with the dual impact of U.S. sanctions and a rising rate of coronavirus infections in the country dragging on activity. The U.S. pushed ahead with additional sanctions on high-profile individuals and state institutions in late September, despite opposition from fellow permanent members of the UN Security Council. Moreover, oil output in August remained at July’s record low level amid heavy international restrictions, although continued gasoline shipments to close ally Venezuela are likely to have supported production somewhat. Furthermore, a renewed increase in Covid-19 cases in the country bodes ill for activity in the final months of the year, with localized restrictions and week-long lockdowns being considered in response.Iran Economic Growth
In SH 2020 (March 2020–March 2021), the economy will contract sharply for the third consecutive year amid U.S. sanctions: Faltering investment will hit the non-oil private sector, while the oil economy will suffer from falling demand. The prolonged nature of the ongoing health crisis is a particularly large cloud on the economic horizon. Panelists see the economy contracting 8.5% in SH 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In SH 2021, the economy is seen growing 2.7%.Iran Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 79.5 | 80.5 | 81.4 | 82.4 | 83.3 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,931 | 5,274 | 5,635 | - | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 392 | 424 | 459 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -1.3 | 13.4 | 3.8 | - | - |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 11.8 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 10.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.6 | -1.9 | -1.8 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 38.4 | 47.5 | 39.5 | 31.8 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 30.0 | 23.2 | 22.1 | 23.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 46.6 | 22.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 11.1 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 26.9 | 34.8 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 30,162 | 32,422 | 37,743 | 42,000 | 42,000 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 29,123 | 30,994 | 33,384 | 40,895 | 42,000 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 0.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 1.2 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 26.7 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 5.4 | 20.8 | 22.6 | 32.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 63.0 | 84.0 | 98.1 | 93.4 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 57.6 | 63.1 | 75.5 | 60.8 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -29.2 | 33.3 | 16.9 | -4.8 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -18.7 | 9.5 | 19.7 | -19.6 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 116 | 104 | 106 | 108 | 105 |
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