Iran Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, the economy stumbled in the first half of SH 2018, with manufacturing and agriculture contracting in annual terms, and the service sector expanding only slightly. The economy is likely to perform poorly in H2, although November’s waivers and OPEC’s recent agreement to exempt Iran from production cuts should support the oil sector. In December, the government presented the draft budget for SH 2019. The bill seeks to diversify the economy away from oil production, and to facilitate job creation and domestic production.Iran Economic Growth
Iran’s economy is expected to contract in SH 2019. Economic sanctions will likely fuel inflation, and depress investment and exports. Panelists see the economy contracting 3.8% in SH 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 0.9% in SH 2020.Iran Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.4 | 78.5 | 79.5 | 80.5 | 81.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,629 | 5,451 | 4,931 | 5,272 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 436 | 428 | 392 | 424 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -0.2 | 4.6 | -1.3 | 13.4 | - |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.7 | -2.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 10.7 | 11.8 | 41.6 | 48.9 | 40.9 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 38.8 | 22.3 | 30.0 | 23.2 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 19.6 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 34.7 | 15.6 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 9.6 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 24,774 | 27,138 | 30,130 | 32,376 | 36,074 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 18,544 | 26,016 | 29,128 | 31,002 | 33,384 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 5.8 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 25.1 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 16.4 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 29.3 | 18.1 | 5.4 | 20.8 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 92.9 | 89.0 | 63.0 | 84.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 63.6 | 70.9 | 57.6 | 63.1 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -4.5 | -4.2 | -29.2 | 33.3 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -7.5 | 11.5 | -18.7 | 9.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 118 | 126 | 128 | 121 | - |
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