Iran Economic Outlook
July 31, 2018
Tensions between Iran and the U.S. have intensified in recent weeks ahead of two waves of U.S. sanctions scheduled for August and November, adding downward pressure on growth, which already slowed sharply in SH 2017. In response, the Iranian government vowed to retaliate by imposing a blockade on Gulf oil exports if sanctions materialize. The rial has continued to plunge and hit a record low against the dollar on the unregulated market this week following a dramatic sell-off. On 25 July, President Hassan Rouhani replaced Central Bank Governor Valiollah Seif with Abdolnaser Hemmati, who will be in charge of halting the slide of the rial. Further cabinet reshuffling could follow as the government grapples with a deepening economic crisis.Iran Economic Growth
Iran’s uncertain economic outlook continues to reflect looming sanctions. Moreover, growing social unrest and mounting inflationary pressures could exacerbate the economic quagmire. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 2.7% in SH 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In SH 2019, growth is expected to slow to 0.9%.Iran Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.4 | 78.5 | 79.5 | 80.5 | 81.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,629 | 5,451 | 4,931 | 5,272 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 436 | 428 | 392 | 424 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -0.2 | 4.6 | -1.3 | 13.4 | - |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.7 | -2.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 10.7 | 11.8 | 41.6 | 48.9 | 40.9 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 38.8 | 22.3 | 30.0 | 23.2 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 19.6 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 34.7 | 15.6 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 9.6 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 24,774 | 27,138 | 30,130 | 32,376 | 36,074 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 18,544 | 26,016 | 29,128 | 31,002 | 33,384 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 5.8 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 25.1 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 16.4 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 29.3 | 18.1 | 5.4 | 20.8 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 92.9 | 89.0 | 63.0 | 84.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 63.6 | 70.9 | 57.6 | 63.1 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -4.5 | -4.2 | -29.2 | 33.3 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -7.5 | 11.5 | -18.7 | 9.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 118 | 126 | 128 | 121 | - |
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