Iran Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019
Latest indicators suggest the economy will contract in H2 of Iran’s fiscal year, which ends this month. OPEC data showed oil production declined sharply in October–December due to U.S. sanctions. In better news, oil production was virtually stable in January compared to December, while the recent increase in oil prices, led by OPEC’s supply cuts, will likely support Iran’s oil sector in the tail-end of this fiscal year. In politics, Iran’s foreign minister was forced to return to his post after attempting to resign. This had followed criticism from Iranian hardliners over U.S. sanctions, diminishing the minister’s influence within the regime.Iran Economic Growth
Iran’s economy is expected to contract in SH 2019. Economic sanctions will likely fuel inflation and depress oil exports, while uncertainty over the future of U.S. waivers on Iranian oil exports poses the key downside risk. Panelists see the economy contracting 3.7% in SH 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 1.1% in SH 2020.Iran Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.4 | 78.5 | 79.5 | 80.5 | 81.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,629 | 5,451 | 4,931 | 5,272 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 436 | 428 | 392 | 424 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -0.2 | 4.6 | -1.3 | 13.4 | - |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.1 | -1.7 | -2.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 10.7 | 11.8 | 41.6 | 48.9 | 40.9 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 38.8 | 22.3 | 30.0 | 23.2 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 19.6 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 34.7 | 15.6 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 9.6 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 24,774 | 27,138 | 30,130 | 32,376 | 36,074 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 18,544 | 26,016 | 29,128 | 31,002 | 33,384 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 5.8 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 25.1 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 16.4 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 29.3 | 18.1 | 5.4 | 20.8 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 92.9 | 89.0 | 63.0 | 84.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 63.6 | 70.9 | 57.6 | 63.1 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -4.5 | -4.2 | -29.2 | 33.3 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -7.5 | 11.5 | -18.7 | 9.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 118 | 126 | 128 | 121 | - |
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