Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economic slump should have eased in Q3 after the economy suffered its first contraction in four years in Q2. Data suggests the downturn bottomed out in May: In July, the latest month for which the index is available, economic activity expanded for the second month in a row. Moreover, private sector business conditions improved in August–September. Turning to Q4, the private sector PMI rose to an over two-year high in October. While this bodes well for the economy in the final stretch of the year, prospects are somewhat gloomy nonetheless, as the global rise in new Covid-19 cases will likely weigh on external trade, oil prices and tourism. Meanwhile, the country is gearing up for the 7 December general election, which has been accompanied by spates of violence. The likely outcome is still too close to call, with the management of Covid-19 and corruption likely to be decisive factors.

Ghana Economic Growth

Economic growth is projected to accelerate in 2021 from this year’s coronavirus-induced slowdown as external and domestic demand gain traction; however, the reading will be partly flattered by a favorable base effect. Volatile commodity prices and lingering uncertainty over the Covid-19 pandemic present key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.8% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in 2022.

Ghana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)27.728.328.929.630.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,7211,9262,0142,1732,164
GDP (USD bn)47.754.658.364.265.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.48.16.36.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.10.20.18.54.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.712.21.013.2-10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.14.315.710.66.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-6.9-5.0-3.8-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.157.357.259.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)26.624.619.815.716.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)17.715.411.89.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)17.217.512.49.88.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)26.0025.5020.0017.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.814.304.544.835.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.783.944.404.685.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.2-3.4-3.2-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.0-1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-1.81.21.82.3
Exports (USD billion)10.311.113.814.915.7
Imports (USD billion)13.612.912.613.113.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-21.67.924.28.04.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.5-4.7-2.03.81.5
International Reserves (USD)5.65.86.96.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)42.238.838.436.3-  

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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