Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

While Q4 2018 national accounts have yet to be released, growth in the quarter was likely supported by solid domestic demand, compensating for the external sector’s downturn on falling exports. Going into Q1 2019, higher oil prices, coupled with a boost in petroleum production, likely helped improve the current account. However, the cedi fell sharply in the quarter after foreign holders of sovereign debt opted not to roll back their maturing investments, making it one of the worst performing currencies globally. The Central Bank was unable to cushion the FX dive as the IMF program, which the country exited on 2 April, stipulated upholding a certain level of reserves. Meanwhile, concerns remain over fiscal prudence going forward. The country is planning to issue a 50-year bond after a highly oversubscribed USD 3 billion Eurobond sale on 19 March; the bulk of the funds will finance infrastructure projects, while the rest will be used to pay off maturing debts.

Ghana Economic Growth

The economy should sustain a solid pace of expansion again this year, thanks to higher export growth and robust domestic demand dynamics. A surge in government spending owing to increased infrastructure development, however, raises uncertainties around fiscal discipline. Volatility in commodity prices also clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.3% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.0% in 2020.

Ghana Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.626.226.927.628.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7671,4181,3461,5401,654
GDP (USD bn)45.237.236.242.446.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.34.03.83.78.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)15.9-5.94.32.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-26.119.76.6-12.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.8-0.3-0.516.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.1-10.1-6.9-8.7-5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)56.870.272.273.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.619.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.411.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.512.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.5020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.203.203.814.304.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.944.40
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.6-9.9-7.8-6.7-4.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.4-3.2-1.81.1
Exports (USD billion)13.813.210.311.113.8
Imports (USD billion)17.614.613.512.912.7
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.923.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.0-7.5-4.4-1.7
International Reserves (USD)5.65.55.96.27.6
External Debt (% of GDP)36.849.457.050.4-  

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5.130.0 %Apr 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Apr 22

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