Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

National accounts data revealed that the economy expanded at the fastest rate in over a year in the second quarter, amid quicker growth in both the services and agricultural sectors. Although Q2’s result was bolstered by a favorable base effect, quarter-on-quarter growth also indicated improving underlying momentum. Turning to Q3, high frequency indicators point towards a sustained recovery. Although economic activity moderated slightly in July, it still posted double-digit growth. Moreover, the private sector PMI came in at a nearly one-year high in September, suggesting firming capital spending, while household spending was likely propped up by higher consumer confidence in the same month. In pandemic-related news, a stagnating vaccination campaign led authorities to leave restrictions unchanged at the end of September, which will likely cap activity going forward.

Ghana Economic Growth

Firming household and capital spending should bolster GDP growth in 2021, while the gradual easing of restrictions abroad bodes well for the external sector. In 2022, the economy is set to grow at a slower pace amid a subsiding base effect and normalizing activity. Uncertainty regarding the pandemic and a slow vaccination campaign continue to dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 5.1% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2023.

Ghana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)27.728.328.929.630.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,7211,9262,0142,1732,164
GDP (USD bn)47.754.658.364.265.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.48.16.36.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.10.20.18.54.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.712.21.013.2-10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.14.315.710.66.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-6.9-5.0-3.8-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.157.357.259.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)26.624.619.815.716.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)17.715.411.89.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)17.217.512.49.88.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.814.304.544.835.70
Policy Interest Rate (%)26.0025.5020.0017.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.783.944.404.685.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.2-3.4-3.2-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.0-1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-1.81.21.82.3
Exports (USD billion)10.311.113.814.915.7
Imports (USD billion)13.612.912.613.113.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-21.67.924.28.04.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.5-4.7-2.03.81.5
International Reserves (USD)5.65.86.96.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)42.238.838.436.3-  

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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