Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

First-quarter annual growth came in at 6.8%, as the economy continued to gradually lose momentum at the outset of the year, after growth hit a five-year high in 2017. A subdued performance by the non-oil sector was mostly behind the slowdown; considerably weaker growth in the industrial sector weighed on economic activity, driven by a feeble increase in manufacturing production that mostly offset strong growth in mining and quarrying activity. In addition, agricultural output growth fell sharply in Q1, partly driven by a weak harvest. Meanwhile, second-quarter prospects point to a further slowdown in growth; the PMI fell to a five-month low in June, whereas inflation jumped back to double-digit territory in the same month. Together with a weaker cedi, higher inflation signaled potential headwinds for sustained domestic demand growth.

Ghana Economic Growth

Despite a soft first quarter, exports should drive the economy forward this year amid a favorable outlook for gold, cocoa and oil prices, and an expected increase in domestic oil output. Meanwhile, healthy private consumption and robust investment activity growth should keep domestic demand strong in 2018. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 7.1% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2019.

Ghana Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.626.226.927.628.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7671,4181,3461,5401,654
GDP (USD bn)45.237.236.242.446.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.34.03.83.78.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)15.9-5.94.32.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-26.119.76.6-12.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.8-0.3-0.516.7
Unemployment Rate2.22.22.22.32.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.1-10.1-6.9-8.7-5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)56.870.272.273.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.619.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.411.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.512.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.5020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.203.203.814.304.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.944.40
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.6-9.9-7.8-6.7-4.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.4-3.2-1.81.1
Exports (USD billion)13.813.210.311.113.8
Imports (USD billion)17.614.613.512.912.7
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.923.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.0-7.5-4.4-1.7
International Reserves (USD)5.65.55.96.27.6
External Debt (% of GDP)36.849.457.050.4-  

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate4.800.0 %Jul 17
Stock Market0.60.0 %Jul 09

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