Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Growth likely slowed in Q1 compared to Q4 2021, with the private-sector PMI slipping on average into contractionary territory and inflation rising to multi-year high levels. Turning to Q2, economic output should be slowing further. April and May’s PMIs moved deeper into contractionary territory amid steeper declines in output and new orders. This was chiefly driven by shortages of key inputs and a continued rise in inflation, which reached an 18-year high in May. Moreover, tighter monetary policy could be affecting investment growth, while the 2021–2022 cocoa crop fell by over 20% from the prior year. More positively, higher prices for key export commodities such as gold and oil will be supporting activity somewhat. In other news, in mid-June Ghana reportedly secured USD 1 billion from international lenders, which should aid the fiscal position.

Ghana Economic Growth

Growth will soften in 2022, as soaring inflation, tighter monetary policy and a depreciating currency should dampen private sector activity and household consumption. However, higher prices for some of Ghana’s exports—oil and gold—will provide support. An elevated sovereign yield and a looming debt crisis due to a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio are the main downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.6% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.8% in 2023.

Ghana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)27.728.328.929.630.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,7211,9262,0142,1732,164
GDP (USD bn)47.754.658.364.265.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.48.16.36.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.10.20.18.54.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.712.21.013.2-10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.14.315.710.66.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-6.9-5.0-3.8-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.157.357.259.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)26.624.619.815.716.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)17.715.411.89.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)17.217.512.49.88.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)26.0025.5020.0017.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.814.304.544.835.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.783.944.404.685.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.2-3.4-3.2-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.0-1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-1.81.21.82.3
Exports (USD billion)10.311.113.814.915.7
Imports (USD billion)13.612.912.613.113.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-21.67.924.28.04.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.5-4.7-2.03.81.5
International Reserves (USD)5.65.86.96.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)42.238.838.436.3-  

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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