Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

December 18, 2017

Economic activity gained ground in November as improving conditions in the domestic economy boosted demand. Exports of gold, cocoa and oil surged in the month, pulling the trade balance out of deficit. While the economy is undergoing a fast-paced recovery after falling commodity prices swerved growth off track last year, a heavy public debt burden threatens to disrupt long-term stability. To help restructure the high debt load, the export-oriented nation sold GHS 5.29 billion (USD 1.16 billion) in long-term bonds on 30 November. Aside from issuing a new five-year bond, the sale was largely comprised of a reopening of existing bonds. Moreover, as part of the government’s commitment to rebalancing the country’s finances, multiple public sector reforms have been planned for next year. The reforms will seek to eliminate bureaucratic hurdles to efficient public service delivery, which should in turn better support the development of the private sector.

Ghana Economic Growth

A robust performance in exports and higher investment flows should buoy growth in 2018. The economy’s elevated public debt burden and a high level of non-performing loans in the banking sector pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 6.8% in 2018, which is up from last month’s forecast, and project it moderating to 6.0% in 2019.

Ghana Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)24.925.626.226.927.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,6311,7671,4181,3461,539
GDP (USD bn)40.745.237.236.242.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.37.34.03.83.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.17.45.34.32.6
Investment (annual variation in %)50.37.52.86.6-12.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.06.60.8-0.3-1.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.3-12.0-10.9-6.9-8.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)50.160.372.272.272.5
Money (annual variation in %)22.918.233.026.624.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.811.817.017.715.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.28.315.517.217.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0016.0021.0026.0025.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.902.373.193.814.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.852.073.053.783.94
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.1-12.6-9.9-7.8-6.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.9-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.4-3.8-1.3-3.2-1.8
Exports (USD billion)13.513.813.210.311.1
Imports (USD billion)17.817.614.513.512.9
Exports (annual variation in %)5.32.1-4.3-21.67.9
Imports (annual variation in %)11.6-1.2-17.7-7.5-4.4
International Reserves (USD)5.35.65.55.96.2
External Debt (% of GDP)31.636.849.457.1-  

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate4.460.0 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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