Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

Economic activity seems to have eased in the second quarter, after the industrial sector powered a solid expansion in the first quarter. Lackluster agricultural output likely weighed on growth in Q2, as a crop disease dampened cocoa yields in the harvest season ending in May. In addition, the average PMI for Q2 dropped slightly from Q1’s average amid softer private sector activity, while merchandise exports languished in April on a fall in oil shipments. Nevertheless, the PMI recovered in July on rising output and new orders, which, coupled with upbeat business sentiment, bodes well for business dynamics in Q3. Meanwhile, in early August the government announced higher farmgate prices for the 2019–2020 cocoa harvest, the first increase in four years. The decision followed the June–July implementation of a price floor for cocoa set by Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s largest producers.

Ghana Economic Growth

Growth should sustain a strong pace this year, buttressed by robust domestic demand. Household spending is expected to rebound amid higher cocoa farmgate prices, while fixed investment should recover thanks to a more accommodative monetary policy. Fiscal slippage ahead of next year’s general election poses a key downside risk to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.2% in 2020.

Ghana Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.527.127.728.328.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,2581,8811,7211,9262,014
GDP (USD bn)59.851.047.754.658.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.22.92.23.48.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)15.96.8-1.6-5.35.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-26.1-1.1-2.712.2-1.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.61.11.14.315.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.8-7.4-5.3-6.9-5.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.251.254.857.157.3
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.619.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.411.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.512.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.5020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.373.193.814.304.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.944.40
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.5-7.2-5.9-5.2-3.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-2.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.3-3.2-1.81.2
Exports (USD billion)13.813.210.311.113.8
Imports (USD billion)17.614.513.612.912.6
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.924.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.7-6.5-4.7-2.0
International Reserves (USD)5.45.55.65.86.9
External Debt (% of GDP)27.836.043.339.237.8

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5.480.0 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 04

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