Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

December 13, 2019

Growth momentum appears to have been broadly sustained in the third quarter. The PMI averaged higher from Q2, amid solid growth in output and employment, hinting at improving private sector activity in Q3. On the other hand, external sector metrics were less encouraging: Merchandise exports lost some steam in Q3, which, coupled with a marked jump in imports, led to a wider current account deficit. Turning to Q4, available data is mixed. Whereas the PMI bounced back strongly from October’s 13-month low in November, business activity was likely bruised by currency-related uncertainty. In December, the cedi slumped to an all-time low after the government’s 2020 budget proposal promised to increase spending by 21.0% next year. Meanwhile, favorable prices for Ghana’s key export commodities boded well for the external sector in October–November.

Ghana Economic Growth

Healthy growth is expected to carry over into next year, thanks to resilient domestic demand. Consumption should benefit from a jump in public spending and healthy consumer demand, while investment activity is seen accelerating following this year’s expected rebound. Volatile commodity prices and fiscal slippage ahead of next year’s elections remain risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 6.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2021.

Ghana Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)26.527.127.728.328.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,2581,8811,7211,9262,014
GDP (USD bn)59.851.047.754.658.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.22.92.23.48.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)15.96.8-1.6-5.35.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-26.1-1.1-2.712.2-1.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.61.11.14.315.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.8-7.4-5.3-6.9-5.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.251.254.857.157.3
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.619.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.411.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.512.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.5020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.373.193.814.304.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.944.40
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.5-7.2-5.9-5.2-3.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-2.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.3-3.2-1.81.2
Exports (USD billion)13.813.210.311.113.8
Imports (USD billion)17.614.513.612.912.6
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.924.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.7-6.5-4.7-2.0
International Reserves (USD)5.45.55.65.86.9
External Debt (% of GDP)27.836.043.339.237.8

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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