Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

August 25, 2020

The economy is expected to have contracted in Q2 due to Covid-19 and containment measures. Central Bank data showed a contracting economy in April–May, while the private-sector PMI showed operating conditions deteriorated at an accelerated pace in Q2. Consequently, government revenues took a hit and this, coupled with fiscal stimulus, led to a deterioration in the government’s fiscal position: Provisional data for H1 shows a much larger shortfall than budgeted, likely limiting room for further stimulus ahead. Furthermore, low oil prices and foreign lockdowns hurt the external sector: Oil exports in the first half were down notably compared to the same period a year prior. Turning to Q3, prospects seemingly improved somewhat as private-sector operating conditions broadly stabilized in July. Moreover, in late July the president announced a further easing of restrictions, boding well for activity.

Ghana Economic Growth

GDP is expected to expand at a markedly reduced pace this year as Covid-19 and associated containment measures extinguish domestic and foreign demand. Moreover, subdued oil prices will weigh on the external sector, while local job losses will further dent domestic activity. Volatile commodity prices and a potential prolonged viral outbreak cloud the outlook further. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will expand 0.8% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2021.

Ghana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)27.728.328.929.630.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,7211,9262,0142,1732,164
GDP (USD bn)47.754.658.364.265.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.48.16.36.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.10.20.18.54.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.712.21.013.2-10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.14.315.710.66.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-6.9-5.0-3.8-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.157.357.259.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)26.624.619.815.716.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)17.715.411.89.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)17.217.512.49.88.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)26.0025.5020.0017.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.814.304.544.835.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.783.944.404.685.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.2-3.4-3.2-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.0-1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-1.81.21.82.3
Exports (USD billion)10.311.113.814.915.7
Imports (USD billion)13.612.912.613.113.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-21.67.924.28.04.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.5-4.7-2.03.81.5
International Reserves (USD)5.65.86.96.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)42.238.838.436.3-  

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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