Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

Incoming data suggests that growth lost some steam in the second half of this year following a healthy expansion in the first half. PMI fell into negative territory in September, signaling a deterioration in business conditions. The index bounced back into positive territory in October and November, although remained subdued as new business growth remained weak. In addition, survey-based data points to rapidly deteriorating sentiment in the Ghanaian private sector: Both consumer and business confidence weakened further in October against the backdrop of a depreciating cedi, likely weighing on private consumption and investment activity. In more positive news, metrics were more upbeat in the external arena. Despite softer demand for gold and cocoa, exports continued to grow at a healthy rate in October, propped up by surging oil exports.

Ghana Economic Growth

Solid domestic demand dynamics are expected to drive sturdy growth next year, against the backdrop of higher consumer spending and elevated investment activity growth. In addition, the external sector should benefit from a favorable price outlook for Ghana’s key export commodities, further buttressing the overall expansion. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 5.9% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% in 2020.

Ghana Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)25.626.226.927.628.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7671,4181,3461,5401,654
GDP (USD bn)45.237.236.242.446.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.34.03.83.78.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)15.9-5.94.32.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-26.119.76.6-12.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.60.8-0.3-0.516.7
Unemployment Rate2.22.22.22.32.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.1-10.1-6.9-8.7-5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)56.870.272.273.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.233.026.624.619.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)11.817.017.715.411.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.315.517.217.512.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0021.0026.0025.5020.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.203.203.814.304.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.073.053.783.944.40
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.6-9.9-7.8-6.7-4.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-3.7-2.8-2.8-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-1.4-3.2-1.81.1
Exports (USD billion)13.813.210.311.113.8
Imports (USD billion)17.614.613.512.912.7
Exports (annual variation in %)2.1-4.3-21.67.923.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-17.0-7.5-4.4-1.7
International Reserves (USD)5.65.55.96.27.6
External Debt (% of GDP)36.849.457.050.4-  

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Ghana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate4.910.0 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 07

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