Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

The economy is likely being hard hit in the second quarter by evaporating domestic and foreign demand amid the global pandemic. According to PMI data, activity contracted at the steepest rate on record in April due to falling output, new orders and purchasing activity. Moreover, private consumption will be suffering amid job losses and intensifying price pressures; inflation reached an over two-year high in April. The external sector, meanwhile, will be feeling the pinch from weakened global demand for oil and low oil prices due to an oversupplied market. More positively, however, prices for gold and cocoa—two other key exports—have risen recently, which should be supporting exports somewhat after they dropped at the sharpest rate in 15 months in March. The lifting of the national lockdown in late April, a USD 1.0 billion loan from the IMF and government measures—including most recently USD 170 million to support business—should also be beginning to provide some respite to domestic activity.

Ghana Economic Growth

The economy is forecast to slow markedly this year amid weak foreign demand for oil and low oil prices, as well as softening domestic demand due to restrictive measures, job losses and a weaker currency. Moreover, the external sector and government finances remain vulnerable to volatile commodity prices. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will expand 1.1% in 2020, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.7% in 2021.

Ghana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)27.728.328.929.630.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,7211,9262,0142,173-  
GDP (USD bn)47.754.658.364.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.48.16.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.6-5.35.84.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.712.2-1.8-5.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.14.315.710.6-  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-6.9-5.0-3.8-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.857.157.359.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)26.624.619.815.716.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)17.715.411.89.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)17.217.512.49.88.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)26.0025.5020.0017.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.814.304.544.835.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.783.944.404.685.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.2-3.4-3.2-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.0-1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-1.81.21.82.3
Exports (USD billion)10.311.113.814.915.6
Imports (USD billion)13.612.912.613.113.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-21.67.924.28.04.6
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.5-4.7-2.03.81.5
International Reserves (USD)5.65.86.96.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)42.238.838.436.3-  

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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