Ghana Economic Forecast

Ghana Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

Growth gained traction in Q4 2021, thanks to stronger agricultural activity and a rebound in the industrial sector, with output rising at the fastest pace in two-and-a-half years in Q4. In contrast, the services sector lost momentum, although it remained sturdy overall. Turning to 2022, economic headwinds seem to be picking up. Economic activity growth weakened in January, while the PMI slipped into contractionary territory on average in Q1, suggesting that business conditions deteriorated. Moreover, the cedi has lost almost a fifth of its value against the USD so far this year, while inflation soared to an over-decade high in April, further stoked by the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. As rising prices are likely to curb private spending growth, Ghana is also facing a looming debt crisis, with government plans to cut spending and introduce new taxes boding poorly for activity ahead.

Ghana Economic Growth

Growth should remain upbeat into 2022, chiefly thanks to stronger investment and private spending growth. That said, risks to the outlook appear increasingly skewed to the downside: Soaring inflation and a depreciating currency threaten to dampen private sector activity and cap household consumption growth, while a heavy debt burden bodes poorly for fiscal stability. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.8% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in 2023.

Ghana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)27.728.328.929.630.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,7211,9262,0142,1732,164
GDP (USD bn)47.754.658.364.265.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.48.16.36.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.10.20.18.54.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.712.21.013.2-10.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.14.315.710.66.4
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.3-6.9-5.0-3.8-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.157.357.259.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)26.624.619.815.716.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)17.715.411.89.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)17.217.512.49.88.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)26.0025.5020.0017.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.814.304.544.835.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.783.944.404.685.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.2-3.4-3.2-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-2.8-2.0-2.0-1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.2-1.81.21.82.3
Exports (USD billion)10.311.113.814.915.7
Imports (USD billion)13.612.912.613.113.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-21.67.924.28.04.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.5-4.7-2.03.81.5
International Reserves (USD)5.65.86.96.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)42.238.838.436.3-  

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Ghana Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate5.700.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 31

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