Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Fourth-quarter growth ticked up (Q4 2018: +4.1% year-on-year) on a jump in mining output, which helped lift full-year growth to a five-year high. Dismissing the frayed economic backdrop, diamond sales remained upbeat. Tourism, on the other hand, witnessed a rare pullback despite the recent easing of travel restrictions. Domestically, a steep import bill coincided with stronger manufacturing gains and improved economic sentiment. More recently, available first-quarter indicators hint at an export-led slowdown at the outset of the year; robust private-sector lending suggests any external-sector setbacks might be offset, however.

Botswana Economic Growth

Full-year growth is expected to moderate this year but should nonetheless remain buoyant—in line with resilient household spending. Botswana’s highly-open economy will remain vulnerable to external-sector shocks, but analysts remain optimistic that the diamond trade, as well as tourism, will hold up well amid any global economic slowdown. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 4.1% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.

Botswana Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,0287,8796,9537,2988,051
GDP (USD bn)14.616.614.815.717.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.34.1-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)5.63.7-4.6-1.10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.417.316.315.515.6
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.506.005.505.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.789.5111.2510.689.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.408.9810.1410.8910.34
Current Account (% of GDP)7.613.25.613.712.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.10.8-
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)34.011.8-25.714.6-19.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.60.7-10.0-17.2-14.4
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)16.315.415.013.4-  

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Botswana Facts

Bond Yield5.020.23 %Apr 18
Exchange Rate10.57-0.31 %Apr 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Apr 22

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