Botswana Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019The economy lost steam in the third quarter of 2018, with annual growth slowing to a one-year low of 4.2% from 5.2% in the previous quarter. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in output in the all-important mining sector, the first in over a year, and cooling activity in the trade and hospitality industry. On a brighter note, public finances improved as the third-quarter budget balance swung to a healthy surplus from a deficit in Q3 2017, reflecting both higher tax revenues and restrained expenditures. Meanwhile, considerably lower diamond exports in October from the year prior led to a hefty trade deficit in the month, suggesting the economy entered Q4 on a somewhat soft footing.
Botswana Economic GrowthA slight deceleration in growth is expected this year as domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, loses some momentum. Nevertheless, accommodative monetary conditions and increased public spending should drive the non-mining economy going forward, keeping growth solid in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.
Botswana Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||7,028||7,879||6,953||7,298||8,051|
|GDP (USD bn)||14.6||16.6||14.8||15.7||17.6|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||11.3||4.1||-1.7||4.3||2.4|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||5.6||3.7||-4.6||-1.1||0.4|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||17.4||17.3||16.3||15.5||15.6|
|Money (annual variation in %)||4.0||10.0||19.9||5.4||2.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||4.1||3.8||3.1||3.0||3.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.9||4.4||3.1||2.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||7.50||7.50||6.00||5.50||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||8.78||9.51||11.25||10.68||9.83|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||8.40||8.98||10.14||10.89||10.34|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||7.6||13.2||5.6||13.7||12.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||1.1||2.2||0.8||2.2||2.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.1||0.8||-0.7||1.5||0.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.8||8.7||6.5||7.4||6.0|
|Imports (USD billion)||7.9||7.9||7.1||5.9||5.0|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||34.0||11.8||-25.7||14.6||-19.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-1.6||0.7||-10.0||-17.2||-14.4|
|International Reserves (USD)||7.7||8.3||7.5||7.2||7.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||16.3||15.4||15.0||13.4||-|
5 years of Botswana economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.94||0.23 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||10.64||-0.31 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Feb 14|
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