Botswana Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018
Available data paints a mixed picture for Q2, following a solid first-quarter performance that was underpinned by strong domestic demand. In annual terms, bank loans to households and firms, mainly diamond processing companies, grew robustly in Q2, hinting at healthy domestic economic activity. On the external front, although the trade balance improved year-on-year in April–May, significantly lower exports of diamonds—which account for roughly 90% of export receipts—in June likely weighed on the external sector’s contribution to Q2’s growth. Meanwhile, at the conclusion of its Article IV mission on 5 September, the IMF praised the authorities’ macroeconomic management but also encouraged reforms in the civil service and in view of improving the business environment.Botswana Economic Growth
An improving global price and demand outlook for diamonds as well as fiscal stimulus should underpin economic growth next year. Policies to stimulate private sector job creation and to diversify the export structure are the key economic challenges ahead. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.4% in 2018 and 4.3% in 2019, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate.Botswana Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,028 | 7,879 | 6,953 | 7,298 | 8,051 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 14.6 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 15.7 | 17.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 11.3 | 4.1 | -1.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 5.6 | 3.7 | -4.6 | -1.1 | 0.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 17.4 | 17.3 | 16.3 | 15.5 | 15.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 4.0 | 10.0 | 19.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 7.50 | 7.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 8.78 | 9.51 | 11.25 | 10.68 | 9.83 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 8.40 | 8.98 | 10.14 | 10.89 | 10.34 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 7.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 13.7 | 12.3 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 34.0 | 11.8 | -25.7 | 14.6 | -19.1 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.6 | 0.7 | -10.0 | -17.2 | -14.4 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 16.3 | 15.4 | 15.0 | 13.4 | - |
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Botswana Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.00 | 0.23 % | Oct 12 |
| Exchange Rate | 10.71 | -0.31 % | Oct 12 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Oct 11 |
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