Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

Economic growth came in at 36.0% year-on-year in Q2, accelerating markedly from the 0.7% expansion in Q1. The jump was largely due to a rebound in the mining and quarrying sector, and rapid growth in diamond sales. Moreover, notable increases were logged in the manufacturing, construction, and wholesale and retail sectors, while only the agricultural sector recorded falling output. Turning to Q3, rough diamond sales came in below Q2’s average in July–August, boding ill for activity. Meanwhile, in late September the government presented the 2022 budget, envisaging total spending of approximately BWP 71.0 billion (around USD 6.4 billion). The plan rests on a 4.2% GDP growth forecast and sees the fiscal deficit at 4.0% of GDP. Spending priorities include addressing the health crisis, as well as promoting export-led growth and diversification, investment in the digital transition and productive infrastructure.

Botswana Economic Growth

Next year, growth is expected to moderate from 2021’s projected rebound, largely due to a less favorable base effect. That said, a healthy external sector amid solid demand for diamonds—the country’s key export—will sustain momentum. The country’s strong dependence on commodities and high susceptibility to Covid-19 outbreaks, due to its low vaccination rate, cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to grow 5.6% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.8% in 2023.

Botswana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.22.32.32.32.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,7026,9867,6577,8437,814
GDP (USD bn)14.815.717.618.318.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.74.32.94.53.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.60.7-1.1-4.6-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)23.221.318.118.918.7
Money (annual variation in %)19.95.42.78.38.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.13.03.23.52.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.12.83.33.22.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.2510.689.8310.7310.58
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.005.505.005.004.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10.1410.8910.3410.2010.76
Current Account (% of GDP)2.27.76.12.1-6.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.31.21.10.4-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.71.50.80.5-1.3
Exports (USD billion)6.37.46.06.65.2
Imports (USD billion)7.05.95.26.16.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.217.3-18.69.9-20.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.4-15.3-12.718.47.7
International Reserves (USD)7.57.27.56.76.2
External Debt (% of GDP)15.013.49.89.6-  

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Botswana Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.060.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate10.58-0.31 %Dec 31
Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 30

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