Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

January 23, 2018

The economy is struggling to emerge from the quicksand of low growth it fell into in H1 due to declining mining production. After months of declines, diamond exports increased in USD value terms in both October and November. The economy picked up some pace in Q3 with an annual growth rate of 1.2%, slightly faster than in Q2. From a production point of view, growth was driven by the finance and business services and mining industries. The mining sector benefited from higher production of gold and diamonds, while the production of copper and nickel was zero due to the ongoing effects of the provisional liquidation of the state-owned BCL mine. Looking at the expenditure side, solid private consumption drove GDP growth, while exports and fixed investment continued to contract heavily.

Botswana Economic Growth

The economy is expected to speed up this year, driven by the services and mining sectors strengthening. Moreover, the government’s diversification plan and some fiscal stimulus will support non-mining industries. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 4.4% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and also 4.4% in 2019.

Botswana Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,1176,9817,6956,9477,259
GDP (USD bn)14.614.516.214.815.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.511.34.1-1.74.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.85.63.7-4.6-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.917.517.415.913.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.04.010.019.95.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.44.13.83.13.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.55.94.43.12.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.507.507.506.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.798.789.5111.2510.68
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.628.408.9810.1410.89
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.19.415.68.311.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.21.42.51.21.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-0.30.5-0.90.3
Exports (USD billion)5.87.88.76.56.4
Imports (USD billion)8.08.08.27.46.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.034.011.8-25.7-0.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.90.81.4-9.5-17.4
International Reserves (USD)7.67.78.37.57.2
External Debt (% of GDP)16.916.714.914.5-  

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Botswana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.880.23 %Feb 16
Exchange Rate9.47-0.31 %Feb 16
Stock Market1.10.0 %Feb 16

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