Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

October 20, 2020

The economy nosedived in the second quarter, with GDP falling 24.0% on an annual basis (Q1: +2.6% year-on-year), due to the Covid-19 shock. The deep downturn was spearheaded by falling exports, which contracted by over three quarters in Q2 amid pandemic-related lockdowns and disrupted supply chains. Moreover, both household and capital spending dropped sharply in the quarter, pummeled by domestic containment measures. Meanwhile, due to the persistent rise in new coronavirus cases, in late September, Parliament extended the state of emergency until March next year, thus maintaining several restrictions on movement and travel, which could weigh on activity in the last quarter of the year.

Botswana Economic Growth

After contracting this year due to the Covid-19 blow, GDP is expected to return to growth in 2021 as the domestic economy gradually recovers from the pandemic. A pickup in global demand should support the external sector, particularly key diamond exports. A prolonged health crisis clouds the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to grow 3.9% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in 2022.

Botswana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.22.32.32.32.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,7026,9867,6577,8437,814
GDP (USD bn)14.815.717.618.318.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.74.32.94.53.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.60.7-1.1-4.6-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)23.221.318.118.918.7
Money (annual variation in %)19.95.42.78.38.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.13.03.23.52.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.12.83.33.22.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.005.505.005.004.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.2510.689.8310.7310.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10.1410.8910.3410.2010.76
Current Account (% of GDP)2.27.76.12.1-6.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.31.21.10.4-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.71.50.80.5-1.3
Exports (USD billion)6.37.46.06.65.2
Imports (USD billion)7.05.95.26.16.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.217.3-18.69.9-20.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.4-15.3-12.718.47.7
International Reserves (USD)7.57.27.56.76.2
External Debt (% of GDP)15.013.49.89.6-  

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Botswana Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.060.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate10.58-0.31 %Dec 31
Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 30

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