Botswana Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018
Available indicators suggest economic activity remained upbeat in the third quarter, following a strong expansion in the second quarter propelled by the trade and financial services sectors. Credit to businesses, particularly in the construction and trade industries, accelerated in Q3 compared to Q2. This, together with steady bank lending to households and moderating inflation, which bode well for consumer spending, point to continued strength of private sector activity in the quarter. On the external front, buoyant growth of diamond exports in Q3—largely reflecting a bounce-back of sales in September amid multi-year high prices for the mineral—also likely contributed to overall growth in the quarter.Botswana Economic Growth
Although a slight slowdown is expected next year, growth is set to remain solid on the back of the services and mining industries. Moreover, the continuation of an accommodative monetary policy stance and higher public spending should prop up the non-mining economy ahead. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in 2020.Botswana Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,028 | 7,879 | 6,953 | 7,298 | 8,051 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 14.6 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 15.7 | 17.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 11.3 | 4.1 | -1.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 5.6 | 3.7 | -4.6 | -1.1 | 0.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 17.4 | 17.3 | 16.3 | 15.5 | 15.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 4.0 | 10.0 | 19.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 7.50 | 7.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 8.78 | 9.51 | 11.25 | 10.68 | 9.83 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 8.40 | 8.98 | 10.14 | 10.89 | 10.34 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 7.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 13.7 | 12.3 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 34.0 | 11.8 | -25.7 | 14.6 | -19.1 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.6 | 0.7 | -10.0 | -17.2 | -14.4 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 16.3 | 15.4 | 15.0 | 13.4 | - |
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Botswana Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.92 | 0.23 % | Dec 12 |
| Exchange Rate | 10.69 | -0.31 % | Dec 12 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Dec 12 |
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