Botswana Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019Fourth-quarter growth ticked up (Q4 2018: +4.1% year-on-year) on a jump in mining output, which helped lift full-year growth to a five-year high. Dismissing the frayed economic backdrop, diamond sales remained upbeat. Tourism, on the other hand, witnessed a rare pullback despite the recent easing of travel restrictions. Domestically, a steep import bill coincided with stronger manufacturing gains and improved economic sentiment. More recently, available first-quarter indicators hint at an export-led slowdown at the outset of the year; robust private-sector lending suggests any external-sector setbacks might be offset, however.
Botswana Economic GrowthFull-year growth is expected to moderate this year but should nonetheless remain buoyant—in line with resilient household spending. Botswana’s highly-open economy will remain vulnerable to external-sector shocks, but analysts remain optimistic that the diamond trade, as well as tourism, will hold up well amid any global economic slowdown. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 4.1% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.
Botswana Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||7,028||7,879||6,953||7,298||8,051|
|GDP (USD bn)||14.6||16.6||14.8||15.7||17.6|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||11.3||4.1||-1.7||4.3||2.4|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||5.6||3.7||-4.6||-1.1||0.4|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||17.4||17.3||16.3||15.5||15.6|
|Money (annual variation in %)||4.0||10.0||19.9||5.4||2.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||4.1||3.8||3.1||3.0||3.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.9||4.4||3.1||2.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||7.50||7.50||6.00||5.50||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||8.78||9.51||11.25||10.68||9.83|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||8.40||8.98||10.14||10.89||10.34|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||7.6||13.2||5.6||13.7||12.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||1.1||2.2||0.8||2.2||2.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.1||0.8||-0.7||1.5||0.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.8||8.7||6.5||7.4||6.0|
|Imports (USD billion)||7.9||7.9||7.1||5.9||5.0|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||34.0||11.8||-25.7||14.6||-19.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-1.6||0.7||-10.0||-17.2||-14.4|
|International Reserves (USD)||7.7||8.3||7.5||7.2||7.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||16.3||15.4||15.0||13.4||-|
5 years of Botswana economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.02||0.23 %||Apr 18|
|Exchange Rate||10.57||-0.31 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Apr 22|
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