Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

After the sharp slowdown at the beginning of the year, economic growth accelerated somewhat in Q2. The diamond sector, which makes up around a third of the country’s GDP and more than 33% of total fiscal revenues, expanded in Q2. Moreover, although growth was still dragged down by the closure of copper and nickel mines, water and energy supply expanded healthily. Furthermore, the tourism sector also gave signs of flourishing in the same period, which bodes well for the desired diversification of the economy. Despite the country’s narrow economic base, Botswana’s strong external and fiscal positions shield the country against possible external shocks associated to the volatility in metal prices. On 27 October, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook from negative to stable.

Botswana Economic Growth

The global recovery in commodities demand should extend into next year and boost the all-important diamond industry. Moreover, a strengthening services sector, as well as public infrastructure spending, should help buttress growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 4.3% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 4.0% in 2019.

Botswana Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,1176,9817,6956,9477,259
GDP (USD bn)14.614.516.214.815.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.511.34.1-1.74.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.85.63.7-4.6-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.917.517.415.913.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.04.010.019.95.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.44.13.83.13.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.55.94.43.12.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.507.507.506.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.798.789.5111.2510.68
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.628.408.9810.1410.89
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.19.415.68.311.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.21.42.51.21.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-0.30.5-0.90.3
Exports (USD billion)5.87.88.76.56.4
Imports (USD billion)8.08.08.27.46.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.034.011.8-25.7-0.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.90.81.4-9.5-17.4
International Reserves (USD)7.67.78.37.57.2
External Debt (% of GDP)16.916.714.914.5-  

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Botswana Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.850.23 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate10.29-0.31 %Dec 06
Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 06

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