Botswana Economic Outlook
August 20, 2019
The economy appears to have lost some traction in the second quarter on a downbeat external sector, following the first quarter’s slight acceleration. Exports shrank more sharply in April–May as overseas sales of diamonds, which account for more than nine-tenths of total merchandise exports, swung to contraction in the period amid slowing global growth and escalating trade tensions. At the same time, imports soared in the first two months of Q2 on a marked rebound in the purchases of machinery and electrical equipment. Increased imports of capital goods signal fixed investment growth rose in the second quarter after cooling in Q1. Moreover, domestic demand seems to have been further supported by greater gains in private consumption, likely in part due to a a fall in inflation boosting households’ purchasing power.Botswana Economic Growth
The economy is seen decelerating this year on a slowdown in exports amid cooling growth in key trading partners and softer expansions in private spending and investment. That said, a faster outturn in government spending should cushion the downturn somewhat. External headwinds pose the main risk to the outlook for the export-oriented economy. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 4.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.Botswana Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,863 | 7,643 | 6,702 | 6,986 | 7,657 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 14.6 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 15.7 | 17.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 11.3 | 4.1 | -1.7 | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 5.6 | 3.7 | -4.6 | 0.7 | -1.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 17.4 | 17.3 | 17.2 | 15.6 | 14.1 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 8.4 | 4.6 | 19.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 7.50 | 7.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 8.78 | 9.51 | 11.25 | 10.68 | 9.83 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 8.40 | 8.98 | 10.14 | 10.89 | 10.34 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 9.0 | 15.1 | 7.6 | 13.7 | 12.2 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 34.0 | 11.8 | -25.7 | 14.6 | -18.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.6 | 1.0 | -9.7 | -17.3 | -12.5 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 16.3 | 15.4 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 9.9 |
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Botswana Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.96 | 0.23 % | Sep 04 |
| Exchange Rate | 10.93 | -0.31 % | Sep 04 |
| Stock Market | 1.3 | 0.0 % | Sep 03 |
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