Botswana Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
The economy lost steam in the third quarter of 2018, with annual growth slowing to a one-year low of 4.2% from 5.2% in the previous quarter. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in output in the all-important mining sector, the first in over a year, and cooling activity in the trade and hospitality industry. On a brighter note, public finances improved as the third-quarter budget balance swung to a healthy surplus from a deficit in Q3 2017, reflecting both higher tax revenues and restrained expenditures. Meanwhile, considerably lower diamond exports in October from the year prior led to a hefty trade deficit in the month, suggesting the economy entered Q4 on a somewhat soft footing.Botswana Economic Growth
A slight deceleration in growth is expected this year as domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, loses some momentum. Nevertheless, accommodative monetary conditions and increased public spending should drive the non-mining economy going forward, keeping growth solid in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.Botswana Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,028 | 7,879 | 6,953 | 7,298 | 8,051 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 14.6 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 15.7 | 17.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 11.3 | 4.1 | -1.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 5.6 | 3.7 | -4.6 | -1.1 | 0.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 17.4 | 17.3 | 16.3 | 15.5 | 15.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 4.0 | 10.0 | 19.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 7.50 | 7.50 | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 8.78 | 9.51 | 11.25 | 10.68 | 9.83 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 8.40 | 8.98 | 10.14 | 10.89 | 10.34 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 7.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 13.7 | 12.3 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 34.0 | 11.8 | -25.7 | 14.6 | -19.1 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.6 | 0.7 | -10.0 | -17.2 | -14.4 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 16.3 | 15.4 | 15.0 | 13.4 | - |
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Botswana Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.94 | 0.23 % | Feb 14 |
| Exchange Rate | 10.64 | -0.31 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Feb 14 |
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