Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy lost steam in the third quarter of 2018, with annual growth slowing to a one-year low of 4.2% from 5.2% in the previous quarter. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in output in the all-important mining sector, the first in over a year, and cooling activity in the trade and hospitality industry. On a brighter note, public finances improved as the third-quarter budget balance swung to a healthy surplus from a deficit in Q3 2017, reflecting both higher tax revenues and restrained expenditures. Meanwhile, considerably lower diamond exports in October from the year prior led to a hefty trade deficit in the month, suggesting the economy entered Q4 on a somewhat soft footing.

Botswana Economic Growth

A slight deceleration in growth is expected this year as domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, loses some momentum. Nevertheless, accommodative monetary conditions and increased public spending should drive the non-mining economy going forward, keeping growth solid in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.

Botswana Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,0287,8796,9537,2988,051
GDP (USD bn)14.616.614.815.717.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.34.1-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)5.63.7-4.6-1.10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.417.316.315.515.6
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.506.005.505.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.789.5111.2510.689.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.408.9810.1410.8910.34
Current Account (% of GDP)7.613.25.613.712.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.10.8-
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)34.011.8-25.714.6-19.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.60.7-10.0-17.2-14.4
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)16.315.415.013.4-  

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Botswana Facts

Bond Yield4.940.23 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate10.64-0.31 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 14

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