Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

Economic growth lost significant steam in the third quarter of last year, and available data suggests that the pace of growth continued to moderate in the fourth quarter. Joblessness remained elevated in the period, with the unemployment rate increasing in the fourth quarter on a year-on-year basis and as compared to its pre-pandemic level. This, coupled with softer household credit growth, suggests that consumption will have eased. Furthermore, the merchandise trade deficit widened in Q4 compared to Q3, as goods export growth moderated, particularly within domestic exports. Turning to this year, although diamond exports growth moderated in the first quarter, the country is set to benefit from elevated commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Government revenues, in particular, should receive a boost given the country’s significant diamond reserves.

Botswana Economic Growth

Economic growth will moderate notably this year, but it should remain healthy. Progressing vaccination efforts are expected to support household consumption and business activity, which will buoy capital outlays in turn. However, the outlook is clouded by higher energy and food prices and lingering pandemic-related uncertainty. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to grow 4.4% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2023.

Botswana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.22.32.32.32.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,7026,9867,6577,8437,814
GDP (USD bn)14.815.717.618.318.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.74.32.94.53.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.60.7-1.1-4.6-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)23.221.318.118.918.7
Money (annual variation in %)19.95.42.78.38.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.13.03.23.52.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.12.83.33.22.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.005.505.005.004.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.2510.689.8310.7310.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10.1410.8910.3410.2010.76
Current Account (% of GDP)2.27.76.12.1-6.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.31.21.10.4-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.71.50.80.5-1.3
Exports (USD billion)6.37.46.06.65.2
Imports (USD billion)7.05.95.26.16.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.217.3-18.69.9-20.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.4-15.3-12.718.47.7
International Reserves (USD)7.57.27.56.76.2
External Debt (% of GDP)15.013.49.89.6-  

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Botswana Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.060.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate10.58-0.31 %Dec 31
Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 30

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