Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economy likely remained downbeat in the third quarter, after GDP plunged in the second quarter as Covid-19 slammed activity. Exports of rough diamonds, which account for around a third of government revenues, contracted by more than two thirds year-on-year in Q3 amid still-frail demand. Moreover, household credit growth weakened in July and August, which is set to have weighed on private consumption. Meanwhile, turning to Q4, in a bid to revive the tourism sector—the country’s second most important foreign exchange earner—the authorities started a phased reopening of borders, allowing air travel to resume gradually from 9 November. In other news, in mid-October, the government approached the World Bank, seeking budgetary support to help cover falling revenues due to the coronavirus health crisis.

Botswana Economic Growth

The economy is projected to rebound in 2021, after contracting this year due to the Covid-19 hit. Domestic demand is set to gradually recover, while firming global demand should bolster the external sector, particularly key diamond exports. A protracted health crisis is a key downside risk, however. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to grow 4.2% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in 2022.

Botswana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.22.32.32.32.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,7026,9867,6577,8437,814
GDP (USD bn)14.815.717.618.318.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.74.32.94.53.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.60.7-1.1-4.6-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)23.221.318.118.918.7
Money (annual variation in %)19.95.42.78.38.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.13.03.23.52.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.12.83.33.22.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.2510.689.8310.7310.58
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.005.505.005.004.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10.1410.8910.3410.2010.76
Current Account (% of GDP)2.27.76.12.1-6.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.31.21.10.4-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.71.50.80.5-1.3
Exports (USD billion)6.37.46.06.65.2
Imports (USD billion)7.05.95.26.16.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.217.3-18.69.9-20.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.4-15.3-12.718.47.7
International Reserves (USD)7.57.27.56.76.2
External Debt (% of GDP)15.013.49.89.6-  

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Botswana Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.060.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate10.58-0.31 %Dec 31
Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 30

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