Botswana Economic Outlook
June 21, 2022
The economy likely continued to lose steam in the first quarter of 2022. Inflation rose notably in the period, and should have dented household consumption. Further, household credit growth eased in the quarter. Greater global uncertainty amid the onset of the war in Ukraine should have dented business confidence and affected capital outlays. More moderate growth in business credit further points to cooling activity. Turning to Q2, inflation averaged higher in April–May as price pressures rose to an over 13-year high in May. Meanwhile, plans have been drawn to construct a USD 2.5 billion coal-to-liquids plant. This is partly due to the country’s reliance on South African imports and subsequent power shortages due to logistical issues in South Africa. In other news, Botswana threatened to quit the UN’s CITES convention, calling for the ability to sell part of its ivory stockpiles.Botswana Economic Growth
A tougher base of comparison and spillovers from the Ukraine war will see economic growth moderate this year: Higher inflation will eat into consumers’ pockets. That said, activity should be supported by progress on the vaccination front and the return of tourism, while elevated diamond prices should see the current account swing into surplus and support growth. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to grow 4.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2023.Botswana Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,702 | 6,986 | 7,657 | 7,843 | 7,814 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 14.8 | 15.7 | 17.6 | 18.3 | 18.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -1.7 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.6 | 0.7 | -1.1 | -4.6 | -6.2 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 23.2 | 21.3 | 18.1 | 18.9 | 18.7 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 19.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 11.25 | 10.68 | 9.83 | 10.73 | 10.58 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 10.14 | 10.89 | 10.34 | 10.20 | 10.76 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | -6.0 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | -1.1 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -1.3 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 6.3 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 5.2 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.6 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -26.2 | 17.3 | -18.6 | 9.9 | -20.4 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -10.4 | -15.3 | -12.7 | 18.4 | 7.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 6.2 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 15.0 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 9.6 | - |
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Botswana Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.06 | 0.23 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 10.58 | -0.31 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 1.2 | 0.0 % | Dec 30 |
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