Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

Growth came in at 3.1% on an annual basis in the third quarter of last year, matching the second quarter’s result which had marked the slowest expansion in two years. Mining activity fell for the second consecutive quarter, although at a softer pace, while the worst drought in a decade ensured the agricultural sector remained mired in contraction. On the other hand, manufacturing production sustained a solid expansion, while activity in the finance and business services sector grew robustly. Turning to the fourth quarter of last year, the external sector remained unsupportive, as merchandise exports contracted at a sharper pace, hampered by a downturn in diamond output. In other news, during a brief visit to the country on 4–7 February, IMF officials remarked the need to diversify the economy to shield it from external shocks and promote sustainable growth.

Botswana Economic Growth

Economic activity is expected to pick up this year as exports rebound, on the back of upbeat diamond and coal shipments. In addition, household spending should accelerate, while fixed investment growth is seen holding solid. Volatility in commodity prices and negative spillovers from South Africa, a key trading partner, remain key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.9% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2021.

Botswana Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)2.22.22.32.32.3
GDP per capita (USD)7,6436,7026,9867,6577,843
GDP (USD bn)16.614.815.717.618.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.1-1.74.32.94.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)3.7-4.60.7-1.1-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.317.215.613.412.1
Money (annual variation in %)4.619.95.42.78.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.83.13.03.23.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.43.12.83.33.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.506.005.505.005.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)9.5111.2510.689.8310.73
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.9810.1410.8910.3410.20
Current Account (% of GDP)15.12.27.76.12.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.50.31.21.10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.8-0.71.50.80.5
Exports (USD billion)8.76.37.46.06.6
Imports (USD billion)7.97.05.95.26.1
Exports (annual variation in %)11.8-25.714.6-18.37.0
Imports (annual variation in %)1.0-9.7-17.3-12.315.3
International Reserves (USD)8.37.57.27.56.7
External Debt (% of GDP)15.415.013.49.89.6

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Botswana Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.060.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate10.58-0.31 %Dec 31
Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 30

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