Botswana Economic Forecast

Botswana Economic Outlook

July 21, 2020

Covid-19 seemingly dealt a considerable blow to the economy in the second quarter, after growth gained traction in the first quarter on robust domestic activity. Containment measures and souring business sentiment will have hampered household and capital spending in Q2. Moreover, weak global demand has further crippled mining exports and tourism receipts. However, as of mid-May, restrictions were lifted, allowing businesses and schools to reopen across the country, while the lockdown in the capital was ended on 15 June, which should have supported activity at the tail end of Q2. Moreover, the authorities are seeking a total of USD 3.4 billion in aid from the IMF and the World Bank to revive the economy from the pandemic and help cover its budget deficit.

Botswana Economic Growth

The economy is expected to shrink markedly this year due to the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. Strict social distancing measures will hamper private consumption and fixed investment. Furthermore, travel restrictions and global lockdowns are set to depress tourism inflows, while feeble demand will hurt diamond exports. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 7.4% in 2020, which is down 3.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 4.3% in 2021.

Botswana Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.22.32.32.32.4
GDP per capita (USD)6,7026,9867,6577,8437,814
GDP (USD bn)14.815.717.618.318.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.74.32.94.53.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.60.7-1.1-4.6-6.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)23.221.318.118.918.7
Money (annual variation in %)19.95.42.78.38.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.13.03.23.52.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.12.83.33.22.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.2510.689.8310.7310.58
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.005.505.005.004.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10.1410.8910.3410.2010.76
Current Account (% of GDP)2.27.76.12.1-6.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.31.21.10.4-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.71.50.80.5-1.3
Exports (USD billion)6.37.46.06.65.2
Imports (USD billion)7.05.95.26.16.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-26.217.3-18.69.9-20.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.4-15.3-12.718.47.7
International Reserves (USD)7.57.27.56.76.2
External Debt (% of GDP)15.013.49.89.6-  

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Botswana Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.060.23 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate10.58-0.31 %Dec 31
Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 30

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