Bosnia-Herz. Economic Outlook
A fragile, post-conflict economy:
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economy has struggled since the end of the 1990s war, with political instability and a complex governance system hindering development. While the country has made progress in rebuilding its infrastructure and attracting some foreign investment, growth remains sluggish compared to regional peers.
Heavy reliance on remittances and exports:The economy is dependent on remittances from its diaspora, which make up a significant portion of GDP. The manufacturing and energy sectors, particularly metal processing and hydropower, contribute to exports, but low productivity and outdated infrastructure limit competitiveness. The country also has significant tourism potential, but this remains largely untapped due to weak infrastructure and poor marketing.
A challenging business environment:Political gridlock, corruption, and a complex administrative system discourage investment and economic development. The country’s divided governance structure—comprising two semi-autonomous entities—creates inefficiencies and complicates decision-making. Bureaucratic hurdles remain a key obstacle to doing business.
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economic outlook:The country’s economic future depends on political stability and progress toward EU integration. Key reforms in governance, infrastructure, and labor market flexibility will be essential to improving competitiveness. Without structural changes, growth is likely to remain below potential, keeping Bosnia and Herzegovina among Europe’s poorest economies.
Bosnia-Herz.'s Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 29.8 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 28.2 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 29.8 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 8,615 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 8,128 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 8,615 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 2.9% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 3% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2021, services accounted for 69.7% of overall GDP, manufacturing %, other industrial activity 24.6%, and agriculture 5.7%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 71.2% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 19.5%, fixed investment 22.4%, and net exports -13.1%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 70.6% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 8.5%, food 6.4%, ores and metals 9.6% and agricultural raw materials 4.9%, with other categories accounting for 0.0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 65.2% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 11.9%, food 15.6%, ores and metals 6.1% and agricultural raw materials 1.2%, with other goods accounting for 0.0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 2.20 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 3.80 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 2.9% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Bosnia-Herz., go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Bosnia-Herz.'s fiscal deficit averaged 0.5% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 20.4% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Bosnia-Herz.'s unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 2.0% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Bosnia-Herz. inflation page for extra insight.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the convertible mark weakened by 15.8% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the convertible mark, click here.
Economic situation in Bosnia-Herz.
Annual GDP growth should have slowed to its pre-pandemic trend in Q1 from Q4, according to our panel. Industrial output swung into contraction, hampered by stronger price pressures among producers. Moreover, retail sales declined in the quarter due to soaring consumer prices, and tourist arrivals grew at a slower pace than in Q4. That said, goods exports rose at the fastest clip in over two years, likely buoyed by front-loading efforts ahead of greater U.S. tariffs. Turning to Q2, our Consensus is for GDP growth to match that of Q1. Looking at available data, the downturns in industrial production and retail sales moderated in April. That said, merchandise exports nearly flatlined in the opening month of the quarter. In other news, the European Parliament recently urged the country to implement multiple political reforms to advance its EU accession.Bosnia-Herz. Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.43 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 14 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Bosnia-Herz. in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 43 economic indicators for Bosnia-Herz. from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Bosnia-Herz. economy. To download a sample report on the Bosnia-Herz.'s economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.