Bangladesh Economic Outlook
July 21, 2020
The economy is likely to have contracted in the second half of FY 2020 (July 2019–June 2020) as strict domestic containment measures in March–May curtailed business activity and suppressed private consumption. Furthermore, tepid external demand—particularly for garments and textiles—resulted in tumbling exports in the same period, with unemployment set to spike markedly. More recently, following the easing of the nationwide lockdown at the end of May, conditions appear to be ameliorating. Exports for June were only marginally lower than in the year prior as foreign demand picked up on the back of an uptick in activity in major economies. Moreover, remittances surged in the same month boding well for household spending in the first quarter of FY 2021. However, flooding as a result of heavy rains in the north of the country is causing significant damage to infrastructure and displacing millions of people.Bangladesh Economic Growth
In FY 2021—which started in July—the economy is projected to rebound as easing containment measures both domestically and abroad lead to a gradual return of activity. However, the persistent nature of the viral outbreak is a key risk going forward. Our panelists project GDP to expand 6.1% in FY 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2022.Bangladesh Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 160 | 162 | 163 | 165 | 167 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,220 | 1,372 | 1,521 | 1,650 | 1,829 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 195 | 222 | 248 | 272 | 305 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 11.8 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 8.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.0 | -3.4 | -3.3 | -4.6 | -5.2 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 33.7 | 33.3 | 33.4 | 34.6 | 35.7 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 12.4 | 16.4 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 9.9 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 6.1 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 1.8 | 1.9 | -0.5 | -3.5 | -1.7 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 3.5 | 4.3 | -1.3 | -9.6 | -5.3 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -5.9 | -5.4 | -9.5 | -18.2 | -15.4 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 30.7 | 33.5 | 34.0 | 36.3 | 40.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 36.6 | 38.8 | 43.5 | 54.5 | 55.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 3.3 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 6.6 | 10.2 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -0.7 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 25.2 | 1.8 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 27.5 | 32.1 | 33.2 | 32.0 | 32.7 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.6 | 17.5 | 19.0 | 19.2 | - |
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Bangladesh Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 84.89 | 0.14 % | Jan 01 |
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