Bangladesh Economic Outlook
January 28, 2020The economy likely grew at a strong pace in the first half of fiscal year 2020, which started in July. USD-denominated remittances increased year-on-year by approximately one-quarter in H1 FY 2020, which should have buttressed private consumption. In addition, wages of low-skilled workers, as measured by the Central Bank, increased at a healthy pace in the same period, while bank lending increased by just over 10% in July–November. All in all, domestic demand looks firm in H1 2020, despite the introduction of a new VAT regime, which reduced exceptions for many essential consumer goods, and a one-third increase in natural gas prices on 1 July. Less positively, however, exports of goods decreased by nearly 6% year-on-year in the first half of the fiscal year, largely due to a drop in ready-made garment exports.
Bangladesh Economic GrowthEconomic growth is likely to slow going forward, partly due to flagging global trade. In addition, downside risks include threats from a banking system under strain from non-performing loans and vulnerability to natural disasters such as flooding and cyclones. Our panelists project GDP to expand 7.6% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in FY 2021.
Bangladesh Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,093||1,220||1,372||1,521||1,650|
|GDP (USD bn)||173||195||222||248||272|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.1||6.6||7.1||7.3||7.9|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||8.7||11.8||13.1||14.6||14.8|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.1||-4.0||-3.4||-3.3||-4.7|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||35.3||33.7||33.3||32.6||34.0|
|Money (annual variation in %)||16.1||12.4||16.4||10.9||9.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||6.1||6.1||5.0||5.8||5.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||7.0||6.2||5.5||5.7||5.5|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||0.8||1.8||1.9||-0.5||-3.5|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||1.4||3.5||4.3||-1.3||-9.6|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-6.8||-5.9||-5.4||-9.5||-18.2|
|Exports (USD billion)||29.8||30.7||33.5||34.0||36.3|
|Imports (USD billion)||36.6||36.6||38.8||43.5||54.5|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||25.3||3.3||9.0||1.7||6.6|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||7.3||-0.7||6.0||12.0||25.2|
|International Reserves (USD)||22.4||27.5||32.1||33.2||32.0|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||19.1||18.6||17.5||19.0||19.2|
5 years of Bangladesh economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||84.89||0.14 %||Jan 01|
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