Bangladesh Economic Outlook
October 15, 2019
The economy began fiscal year 2020, which started in July, on a good footing. In the first three months of the fiscal year, remittances increased around 17% in U.S. dollar terms compared to the same period a year earlier. In addition, wages of low-skilled workers, as specifically measured by the Central Bank, rose annually by over 6% in the first two months of the fiscal year and bank credit extensions increased by over 12% in the same period. These developments indicate healthy domestic demand, and likely offset the impact of the introduction of a wider VAT regime and a one-third increase in natural gas prices in July. However, in July–September, merchandise exports decreased slightly compared to the same period a year earlier, largely due to a small drop in ready-made garment exports.Bangladesh Economic Growth
The economy is set to slow over this fiscal year and the next, partly due to flagging global trade. Moreover, downside risks to the outlook include a fragile banking system—under strain from a high number of non-performing loans—and a vulnerability to natural disasters such as flooding and cyclones. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.6% in FY 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.4% in FY 2021.Bangladesh Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 157 | 158 | 160 | 162 | 163 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 956 | 1,093 | 1,220 | 1,372 | 1,521 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 150 | 173 | 195 | 222 | 248 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 12.0 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 14.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -3.4 | -3.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.8 | 35.3 | 33.7 | 33.3 | 32.5 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 16.7 | 16.1 | 12.4 | 16.4 | 10.9 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 7.3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.5 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -10.3 | -6.8 | -7.0 | -6.5 | -9.5 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 23.8 | 29.8 | 30.7 | 33.4 | 34.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 34.1 | 36.6 | 37.7 | 39.9 | 43.5 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 4.0 | 25.3 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 1.7 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -4.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 9.0 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 18.0 | 22.4 | 27.9 | 32.1 | 33.2 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 21.3 | 19.1 | 18.6 | 17.5 | 19.0 |
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Bangladesh Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 84.50 | 0.14 % | Sep 04 |
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