Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

GDP likely continued to lose impetus in Q3 FY 2022 (January–March 2022) as a surge in Covid-19 cases in January is expected to have hampered output. Despite cases ebbing in February, allowing authorities to reduce a number of restrictions by March, the government continued to take a cautious approach to dropping all measures, likely hindering activity. In late March, Moody’s credit rating agency affirmed Bangladesh’s credit rating at ‘Ba3’ with a stable outlook, noting healthy export growth and the strong macroeconomic stability provided by remittances throughout the pandemic. In other news, despite the recent rise in global oil prices straining public coffers, authorities recently stated they will refrain from raising domestic fuel prices and are more likely to increase subsidies in the upcoming fiscal year budget to keep prices stable, boding well for consumer spending.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

GDP growth should ease slightly in FY 2022 as industrial production growth loses momentum. Moreover, further stop-start Covid-19 restrictions are a risk while the vaccination rate remains fairly low. Extreme weather events, elevated commodity prices straining public finances, and the high rate of non-performing loans in the banking sector pose further downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 6.5% in FY 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% in FY 2023.

Bangladesh Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)160162163165167
GDP per capita (USD)1,2201,3721,5211,6501,829
GDP (USD bn)195222248272305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.67.17.37.98.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.813.114.614.88.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-3.4-3.3-4.6-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.733.333.434.635.7
Money (annual variation in %)12.416.410.99.29.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.15.05.85.35.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.25.55.75.55.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.81.9-0.5-3.5-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.54.3-1.3-9.6-5.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.9-5.4-9.5-18.2-15.4
Exports (USD billion)30.733.534.036.340.0
Imports (USD billion)36.638.843.554.555.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.39.01.76.610.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.76.012.025.21.8
International Reserves (USD)27.532.133.232.032.7
External Debt (% of GDP)18.617.519.019.2-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate84.890.14 %Jan 01

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