Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

October 20, 2020

Economic growth slumped to an over 10-year low in FY 2020 (July 2019–June 2020), as the pandemic hammered both domestic activity and the external sector. Merchandise exports and industrial output collapsed at an unprecedented rate in Q4 FY 2020, reflecting eviscerated foreign demand and spearheading the overall downturn. Similarly, remittances plunged in the final quarter of FY 2020, weighing on consumer spending. Turning to FY 2021, the economic panorama seems to have been gradually improving after the easing of restrictions in May and thanks to a strong fiscal and monetary policy response. Remittances—a key source for consumer spending—soared nearly 50% in July–September, boding well for domestic demand and shoring up the country’s foreign reserves. Moreover, exports seemingly rebounded in July amid recovering garment demand, with stronger growth expected in the upcoming Christmas season.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

Growth is expected pick up some steam this fiscal year (July 2020–June 2021) as foreign demand gradually recovers from the Covid-19-induced shock, while supportive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures buttress domestic demand. That said, the country’s poor health infrastructure and a frail global economic environment cloud the growth outlook. Our panelists project GDP to expand 6.7% in FY 2021, which is up 1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% in FY 2022.

Bangladesh Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)160162163165167
GDP per capita (USD)1,2201,3721,5211,6501,829
GDP (USD bn)195222248272305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.67.17.37.98.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.813.114.614.88.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-3.4-3.3-4.6-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.733.333.434.635.7
Money (annual variation in %)12.416.410.99.29.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.15.05.85.35.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.25.55.75.55.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.81.9-0.5-3.5-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.54.3-1.3-9.6-5.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.9-5.4-9.5-18.2-15.4
Exports (USD billion)30.733.534.036.340.0
Imports (USD billion)36.638.843.554.555.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.39.01.76.610.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.76.012.025.21.8
International Reserves (USD)27.532.133.232.032.7
External Debt (% of GDP)18.617.519.019.2-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate84.890.14 %Jan 01

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