Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

Growth plunged to an over 10-year low in FY 2020 (July 2019–June 2020), amid unprecedented contractions in merchandise exports, industrial production and remittances due to Covid-19 in Q4. Turning to FY 2021, economic conditions seem to have been gradually improving after the easing of restrictions in May, supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Merchandise exports rebounded in Q1 2021 (July–September) as the easing of lockdown measures globally boosted demand for clothing. Moreover, remittances—a key source for consumer spending—soared 48.5% in the same period. In turn, the spike in remittances and lower trade deficit led to a marked improvement in the current account balance in Q1 2021. That said, although authorities ruled out strict lockdown restrictions at home, the recent surge in Covid-19 infections globally could reduce foreign demand, boding ill for the economic recovery.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

Growth is expected to regain momentum this fiscal year (July 2020–June 2021) as the external sector strengthens, while supportive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures bolster domestic demand. That said, uncertainty over the course of pandemic, the country’s poor health infrastructure and a fragile global economy cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.9% in FY 2021, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.1% in FY 2022.

Bangladesh Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)160162163165167
GDP per capita (USD)1,2201,3721,5211,6501,829
GDP (USD bn)195222248272305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.67.17.37.98.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.813.114.614.88.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-3.4-3.3-4.6-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.733.333.434.635.7
Money (annual variation in %)12.416.410.99.29.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.15.05.85.35.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.25.55.75.55.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.81.9-0.5-3.5-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.54.3-1.3-9.6-5.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.9-5.4-9.5-18.2-15.4
Exports (USD billion)30.733.534.036.340.0
Imports (USD billion)36.638.843.554.555.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.39.01.76.610.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.76.012.025.21.8
International Reserves (USD)27.532.133.232.032.7
External Debt (% of GDP)18.617.519.019.2-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate84.890.14 %Jan 01

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