Bangladesh Economic Outlook
January 28, 2020
The economy likely grew at a strong pace in the first half of fiscal year 2020, which started in July. USD-denominated remittances increased year-on-year by approximately one-quarter in H1 FY 2020, which should have buttressed private consumption. In addition, wages of low-skilled workers, as measured by the Central Bank, increased at a healthy pace in the same period, while bank lending increased by just over 10% in July–November. All in all, domestic demand looks firm in H1 2020, despite the introduction of a new VAT regime, which reduced exceptions for many essential consumer goods, and a one-third increase in natural gas prices on 1 July. Less positively, however, exports of goods decreased by nearly 6% year-on-year in the first half of the fiscal year, largely due to a drop in ready-made garment exports.Bangladesh Economic Growth
Economic growth is likely to slow going forward, partly due to flagging global trade. In addition, downside risks include threats from a banking system under strain from non-performing loans and vulnerability to natural disasters such as flooding and cyclones. Our panelists project GDP to expand 7.6% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in FY 2021.Bangladesh Economy Data
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 158 | 160 | 162 | 163 | 165 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,093 | 1,220 | 1,372 | 1,521 | 1,650 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 173 | 195 | 222 | 248 | 272 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.9 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 8.7 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 14.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -4.0 | -3.4 | -3.3 | -4.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.3 | 33.7 | 33.3 | 32.6 | 34.0 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 16.1 | 12.4 | 16.4 | 10.9 | 9.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | -0.5 | -3.5 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | -1.3 | -9.6 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -6.8 | -5.9 | -5.4 | -9.5 | -18.2 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 29.8 | 30.7 | 33.5 | 34.0 | 36.3 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 36.6 | 36.6 | 38.8 | 43.5 | 54.5 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 25.3 | 3.3 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 6.6 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 7.3 | -0.7 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 25.2 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 22.4 | 27.5 | 32.1 | 33.2 | 32.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 19.1 | 18.6 | 17.5 | 19.0 | 19.2 |
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Bangladesh Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 84.89 | 0.14 % | Jan 01 |
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