Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

January 28, 2020

The economy likely grew at a strong pace in the first half of fiscal year 2020, which started in July. USD-denominated remittances increased year-on-year by approximately one-quarter in H1 FY 2020, which should have buttressed private consumption. In addition, wages of low-skilled workers, as measured by the Central Bank, increased at a healthy pace in the same period, while bank lending increased by just over 10% in July–November. All in all, domestic demand looks firm in H1 2020, despite the introduction of a new VAT regime, which reduced exceptions for many essential consumer goods, and a one-third increase in natural gas prices on 1 July. Less positively, however, exports of goods decreased by nearly 6% year-on-year in the first half of the fiscal year, largely due to a drop in ready-made garment exports.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

Economic growth is likely to slow going forward, partly due to flagging global trade. In addition, downside risks include threats from a banking system under strain from non-performing loans and vulnerability to natural disasters such as flooding and cyclones. Our panelists project GDP to expand 7.6% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in FY 2021.

Bangladesh Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)158160162163165
GDP per capita (USD)1,0931,2201,3721,5211,650
GDP (USD bn)173195222248272
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.711.813.114.614.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-4.0-3.4-3.3-4.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.333.733.332.634.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.112.416.410.99.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.8-5.9-5.4-9.5-18.2
Exports (USD billion)29.830.733.534.036.3
Imports (USD billion)36.636.638.843.554.5
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)7.3-
International Reserves (USD)22.427.532.133.232.0
External Debt (% of GDP)19.118.617.519.019.2

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Bangladesh Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate84.890.14 %Jan 01

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