Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

After strong growth in FY 2021 (July 2020–June 2021) on the back of buoyant household and government spending, the economic panorama darkened at the outset of FY 2022. A renewed outbreak of Covid-19 prompted the reintroduction of a tough lockdown from 1 July, which, in conjunction with lower remittances in year-on-year terms in Q3, likely hit domestic demand. In addition, exports edged down in annual terms in July-August. More positively, new Covid-19 cases have tumbled since August, which has led to a marked rollback of restrictions, including the reopening of public venues and resumption of internal flights. Moreover, after a very slow start, the vaccination rate has finally begun to take off, with roughly 34 doses administered per 100 people as of mid-October. India’s recent decision to resume vaccine exports should provide further impetus to the vaccination campaign ahead.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to accelerate in FY 2022 as private consumption and investment gain steam. That said, further stop-start Covid-19 restrictions are a possibility while the vaccination rate remains fairly low. Vulnerability to extreme weather events and the high rate of non-performing loans in the banking sector pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 6.9% in FY 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.9% in FY 2023.

Bangladesh Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)160162163165167
GDP per capita (USD)1,2201,3721,5211,6501,829
GDP (USD bn)195222248272305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.67.17.37.98.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.813.114.614.88.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-3.4-3.3-4.6-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.733.333.434.635.7
Money (annual variation in %)12.416.410.99.29.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.15.05.85.35.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.25.55.75.55.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.81.9-0.5-3.5-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.54.3-1.3-9.6-5.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.9-5.4-9.5-18.2-15.4
Exports (USD billion)30.733.534.036.340.0
Imports (USD billion)36.638.843.554.555.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.39.01.76.610.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.76.012.025.21.8
International Reserves (USD)27.532.133.232.032.7
External Debt (% of GDP)18.617.519.019.2-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate84.890.14 %Jan 01

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