Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

The economy should have accelerated this fiscal year, which ends in June, according to the Central Bank’s preliminary estimates; Consensus Forecast panelists, however, are still adjusting their forecasts to accommodate this new information. A near-doubling in the expansion of exports has supported economic growth, while consumption and fixed investment growth have both moderated. The early Central Bank figures are unlikely to be significantly downgraded following Cyclone Fani, which hit Bangladesh on 4 May; while the cyclone wreaked havoc, most of the over one million people who took shelter from it in the morning had returned home by the afternoon, with the UN praising government authorities for their “significant preparedness and immediate response”.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

In fiscal year 2020, which begins in July, economic growth will likely edge down, partly due to a high base effect. Moreover, the continued risk of natural disasters looms large over the economy, while a weak global trading environment and a struggling domestic banking system compound downside risks. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.4% in FY 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2021.

Bangladesh Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)157158160162163
GDP per capita (USD)9561,0931,2201,3721,545
GDP (USD bn)150173195222252
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.06.16.67.17.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)12.08.711.813.115.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-4.0-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.835.332.432.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.716.112.416.410.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.36.16.15.05.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.57.06.25.55.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)77.4177.9278.2079.0582.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)78.1477.6077.9078.5881.22
Current Account (% of GDP)1.60.81.51.9-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.41.42.94.3-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-10.3-6.8-7.0-6.5-9.5
Exports (USD billion)23.829.830.733.434.0
Imports (USD billion)34.136.637.739.943.5
Exports (annual variation in %)4.025.33.18.91.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.07.33.05.99.0
International Reserves (USD)18.022.427.932.133.2
External Debt (% of GDP)22.720.619.818.6-  

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Bangladesh Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate84.530.14 %Jun 13

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