Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

June 7, 2022

Growth kicked into a higher gear than the 2021 average in January-April, largely thanks to stronger activity in the non-oil and gas sector. Despite posting no more than moderate growth at the outset of the year, activity in the oil and gas sector appears to be gaining steam in Q2, on the back of soaring energy prices and as EU countries seek alternatives sources of supply to Russia. This drove an increase in oil and gas investment between January and April, helping to offset a sharp decline in investment in the non-oil and gas sector. However, the war in Ukraine is likely beginning to bite the Azeri economy via soaring inflation and lower remittances inflows from Russia, boding ill for private spending. Meanwhile, Armenia and Azerbaijan are reportedly inching closer to a peace deal, but the status of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region remains unresolved.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Growth is forecast to slow this year. Rising inflation and weaker business confidence bode ill for household spending and investment activity, respectively, but higher global energy prices and rising natural gas production should help the economy to remain among the region’s most dynamic. Longstanding political tensions with Armenia remain a potential source of instability. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2023.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.69.79.89.910.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,5253,9014,1614,7404,777
GDP (USD bn)53.037.940.947.148.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.1-3.10.21.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.4-0.5-3.41.51.8
Unemployment Rate5.05.05.04.95.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-0.4-1.6-0.4-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.050.753.248.4-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-50.233.00.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.615.77.91.62.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.012.412.92.32.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.0015.0015.009.757.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.031.601.721.701.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.031.601.731.701.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-3.64.112.89.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-1.41.76.14.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.84.26.19.88.5
Exports (USD billion)15.613.215.220.819.9
Imports (USD billion)9.89.09.011.011.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.8-15.214.737.2-4.5
Imports (annual variation in %)4.7-7.90.421.23.5
International Reserves (USD)7.97.16.76.77.0
External Debt (% of GDP)25.439.037.834.4-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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