Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

November 3, 2020

Recent data indicates that stumbling activity in H1 due to the pandemic sapping global oil demand and prices, carried over into Q3. GDP contracted 3.9% on an annual basis in January–September (January–June: -2.7% yoy) as both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon segments of the economy continued to shrink. Similarly, the decline in industrial output sharpened through September as a reeling mining sector, dragged down primarily by falling oil production, outweighed solid gains in the non-oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, on 24 October, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s credit rating at BB+ but downgraded the outlook to negative, due to rising risks to its macro stability and fiscal and external positions amid the military confrontation with Armenia. The conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region shows little sign of abating, with various attempts at internationally brokered ceasefires failing.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is seen suffering its sharpest downturn since the late 1990s this year on the impact from the pandemic and a battered energy industry. Output should bounce back to growth next year, however, driven by a recovery in external demand and hydrocarbon prices. The recent surge in Covid-19 cases and the escalating conflict with Armenia pose key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.9% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2022.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.69.79.89.910.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,5253,9014,1614,7404,777
GDP (USD bn)53.037.940.947.148.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.1-3.10.21.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.4-0.5-3.41.51.8
Unemployment Rate5.05.05.04.95.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-0.4-1.6-0.4-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.050.753.248.4-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-50.233.00.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.615.77.91.62.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.012.412.92.32.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.0015.0015.009.757.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.031.601.721.701.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.031.601.731.701.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-3.64.112.89.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-1.41.76.14.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.84.26.19.88.5
Exports (USD billion)15.613.215.220.819.9
Imports (USD billion)9.89.09.011.011.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.8-15.214.737.2-4.5
Imports (annual variation in %)4.7-7.90.421.23.5
International Reserves (USD)7.97.16.76.77.0
External Debt (% of GDP)25.439.037.834.4-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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