Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

June 4, 2019

The oil sector’s sluggish outturn in January–April caused the economy to lose ground in this period when compared with the first three months of the year. Oil production withered from the same period last year, which in turn likely reduced oil export income and dragged on government revenues; at the same time, expenditures rose more rapidly on the rollout of infrastructure development projects. Non-oil activity, however, accelerated. Agricultural output picked up in the first four months, as did information and communication services, and non-oil industry maintained a strong expansion. Moreover, domestic demand seemed to remain resilient: A solid inflow of remittances likely boosted household spending, as evidenced by sustained healthy retail sales growth, while the fall in fixed investment softened.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Growth is set to climb this year on higher natural gas production and solid activity in the non-oil sector. Moreover, healthy household consumption, supported by the minimum wage hike, and a gradual recovery in investment, amid improving investor confidence, will drive the domestic economy. Risks to the outlook stem from cooling global growth and trade upheaval. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	9.4	9.5	9.6	9.7	9.8
GDP per capita (USD)	7,926	7,939	5,525	3,901	4,149
GDP (USD bn)	74.2	75.2	53.0	37.9	40.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.8	2.8	1.1	-3.8	0.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.8	-0.7	2.4	-0.5	-3.4
Unemployment Rate	5.0	4.9	5.0	5.0	5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.6	-0.5	-1.2	-0.4	-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	12.6	14.4	35.0	50.7	-
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	19.0	6.1	-50.2	33.0	0.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.6	-0.2	7.5	14.8	7.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.4	1.4	4.0	12.4	12.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.75	3.50	3.00	15.00	15.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.78	0.78	1.56	1.76	1.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	0.78	0.79	1.03	1.60	1.73
Current Account (% of GDP)	15.9	13.2	-0.4	-3.6	4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	11.8	10.0	-0.2	-1.4	1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	21.4	18.9	5.8	4.2	6.1
Exports (USD billion)	31.7	28.3	15.6	13.2	15.2
Imports (USD billion)	10.3	9.3	9.8	9.0	9.0
Exports (annual variation in %)	-2.9	-10.9	-44.8	-15.2	14.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	-0.9	-9.6	4.7	-7.9	0.4
International Reserves (USD)	14.2	13.8	5.0	4.0	5.3
External Debt (% of GDP)	13.6	15.7	24.9	37.2	-

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Azerbaijan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.70	-0.66 %	Jun 13
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jun 13

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