Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

January 11, 2022

GDP expanded 5.3% year-on-year in the January-November period, accelerating from the 4.9% increase registered in January-October. Faster growth in retail trade and the industrial sector buttressed the economy. On the external trade front, in late December the country signed five agreements with Turkey, in a bid to boost power generation. Meanwhile, the IMF concluded an Article IV consultation with the country on 23 December. The Fund highlighted the suitable fiscal response to the pandemic, but encouraged the government to launch a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation strategy this year. Moreover, it noted that impediments to private sector growth and job creation should be removed to diversify the economy. On the military front, following a ceasefire with Armenia in mid-November, Azerbaijan handed over several captured Armenian soldiers in December in a further sign of easing tensions.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

GDP should expand at a solid albeit softer rate this year, as the impact of the pandemic wanes. Increased natural gas production amid upbeat energy prices and strong infrastructure investment in Nagorno-Karabakh should sustain momentum. While pandemic-related uncertainty poses a downside risk, stronger-than-expected global growth poses an upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2023.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.69.79.89.910.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,5253,9014,1614,7404,777
GDP (USD bn)53.037.940.947.148.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.1-3.10.21.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.4-0.5-3.41.51.8
Unemployment Rate5.05.05.04.95.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-0.4-1.6-0.4-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.050.753.248.4-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-50.233.00.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.615.77.91.62.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.012.412.92.32.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.0015.0015.009.757.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.031.601.721.701.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.031.601.731.701.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-3.64.112.89.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-1.41.76.14.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.84.26.19.88.5
Exports (USD billion)15.613.215.220.819.9
Imports (USD billion)9.89.09.011.011.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.8-15.214.737.2-4.5
Imports (annual variation in %)4.7-7.90.421.23.5
International Reserves (USD)7.97.16.76.77.0
External Debt (% of GDP)25.439.037.834.4-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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