Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

January 14, 2020

Economic growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, after slowing in the second quarter. The acceleration reflected a notable upturn in non-oil and gas activity. On the demand side, private consumption likely led the overall expansion as hinted by robust retail sales growth in the quarter. Moreover, capital investment fell less sharply in Q3, likely supported by the Central Bank’s policy rate cuts. Conversely, the external sector remained lackluster amid a subsequent drop in merchandise exports in Q3. Turning to the fourth quarter, economic activity likely lost steam. GDP growth decelerated in October–November amid marked weaknesses in the oil and gas sector. On the other hand, the non-oil economy remained upbeat as household consumption likely benefited from rising wages; however, a sharper fall in capital investment in the same period is expected to have taken a toll.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Growth is projected to remain stable this year, supported by rising government spending and stronger private consumption amid a tight labor market. Furthermore, looser monetary conditions and improving investor confidence bode well for investment activity. Volatile commodity prices and slowing global growth remain major risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen accelerating to 2.7%.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	9.4	9.5	9.6	9.7	9.8
GDP per capita (USD)	7,870	7,926	5,525	3,901	4,149
GDP (USD bn)	73.6	75.1	53.0	37.9	40.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.8	2.8	1.1	-3.1	0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.8	-0.7	2.4	-0.5	-3.4
Unemployment Rate	5.0	4.9	5.0	5.0	5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.6	-0.5	-1.2	-0.4	-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	12.6	14.4	35.0	50.7	53.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	19.0	6.1	-50.6	34.1	0.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.6	-0.2	7.6	15.7	7.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.4	1.4	4.0	12.4	12.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.75	3.50	3.00	15.00	15.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.78	0.78	1.03	1.60	1.72
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	0.78	0.79	1.03	1.60	1.73
Current Account (% of GDP)	16.7	13.9	-0.4	-3.6	4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	12.3	10.4	-0.2	-1.4	1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	20.6	18.9	5.8	4.2	6.1
Exports (USD billion)	31.8	28.3	15.6	13.2	15.2
Imports (USD billion)	11.2	9.3	9.8	9.0	9.0
Exports (annual variation in %)	-2.6	-11.1	-44.8	-15.2	14.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	7.1	-16.3	4.7	-7.9	0.4
International Reserves (USD)	15.0	15.5	7.9	7.1	6.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	14.5	16.4	26.0	39.7	37.4

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Azerbaijan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.70	-0.66 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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