Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

July 7, 2020

The economy seemed to contract sharply in the second quarter after annual GDP growth halved to 1.1% in the first quarter. Economic activity shrank 1.7% year-on-year in January–May period, as lockdown measures implemented to contain Covid-19 dented retail spending, while investment activity plunged amid the uncertain economic backdrop. In the external arena, the picture was similarly bleak in the quarter as depressed global oil prices and capped domestic production hit exports in April–May. A rebound in oil prices in June offered some relief for the all-important energy sector at the end Q2, although the panorama remains grim at the outset of the third quarter. In mid-June, the government extended lockdown measures across most of the country until 1 August, with many non-essential businesses set to shut again after being reopened in May.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is seen shrinking this year due the pandemic. The all-important oil and gas sector is set to be particularly hard hit amid low crude prices, subdued demand and curbed output, which will undermine industrial activity, exports and government revenues in turn. Meanwhile, lockdown measures will hamper consumer demand and investment activity. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.5% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, GDP growth is seen at 2.8/%.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Population (million)	9.6	9.7	9.8	9.9	10.1
GDP per capita (USD)	5,525	3,901	4,161	4,740	4,777
GDP (USD bn)	53.0	37.9	40.9	47.1	48.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	1.1	-3.1	0.2	1.4	2.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	2.4	-0.5	-3.4	1.5	1.8
Unemployment Rate	5.0	5.0	5.0	4.9	5.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.2	-0.4	-1.6	-0.4	-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)	35.0	50.7	53.2	48.4	-
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	-50.2	33.0	0.0	-	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	7.6	15.7	7.9	1.6	2.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	4.0	12.4	12.9	2.3	2.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	15.00	15.00	9.75	7.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.03	1.60	1.72	1.70	1.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.03	1.60	1.73	1.70	1.70
Current Account (% of GDP)	-0.4	-3.6	4.1	12.8	9.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.2	-1.4	1.7	6.1	4.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	5.8	4.2	6.1	9.8	8.5
Exports (USD billion)	15.6	13.2	15.2	20.8	19.9
Imports (USD billion)	9.8	9.0	9.0	11.0	11.3
Exports (annual variation in %)	-44.8	-15.2	14.7	37.2	-4.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	4.7	-7.9	0.4	21.2	3.5
International Reserves (USD)	7.9	7.1	6.7	6.7	7.0
External Debt (% of GDP)	25.4	39.0	37.8	34.4	-

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Azerbaijan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.70	-0.66 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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