Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

July 2, 2019

The economy appears to have lost some momentum in the second quarter of the year, on the heels of a healthy first-quarter expansion which was fueled by the oil sector. Economic activity growth moderated in April–May, largely driven by a downturn in the oil sector: Azerbaijan’s oil output contracted on an annual basis in the period due to maintenance works in April as well as the country’s commitment to OPEC+ oil cuts. This likely weighed on oil export income and dragged on government revenues, eating into gains stemming from higher global oil prices in April–May. Meanwhile, non-oil activity remained buoyant in the first two months of Q2: Healthy non-oil investment activity growth, rising agricultural production and a solid increase in industrial output, excluding the oil-sector production, signaled that other sectors remained strong in the quarter. On top of that, non-oil exports continued surging in April–May.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate this year, thanks to increasing natural gas production and robust non-oil sector momentum. Solid private consumption growth, supported by rising wages and stable inflation, and an upturn in investment activity, aided by a more accommodative monetary policy environment and improving investor confidence, will support the domestic economy. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.49.59.69.79.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,8707,9265,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)73.675.153.037.940.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.82.81.1-3.10.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.04.95.05.05.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.753.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-50.634.10.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.615.77.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.44.012.412.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.031.601.72
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)16.713.9-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)12.310.4-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)20.618.95.84.26.1
Exports (USD billion)31.828.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)11.29.39.89.09.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.6-11.1-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)7.1-16.34.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)15.015.57.97.16.7
External Debt (% of GDP)14.516.426.039.737.4

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jul 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 11

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