Azerbaijan Economic Forecast
November 3, 2020Recent data indicates that stumbling activity in H1 due to the pandemic sapping global oil demand and prices, carried over into Q3. GDP contracted 3.9% on an annual basis in January–September (January–June: -2.7% yoy) as both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon segments of the economy continued to shrink. Similarly, the decline in industrial output sharpened through September as a reeling mining sector, dragged down primarily by falling oil production, outweighed solid gains in the non-oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, on 24 October, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s credit rating at BB+ but downgraded the outlook to negative, due to rising risks to its macro stability and fiscal and external positions amid the military confrontation with Armenia. The conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region shows little sign of abating, with various attempts at internationally brokered ceasefires failing.
Azerbaijan Economic GrowthThe economy is seen suffering its sharpest downturn since the late 1990s this year on the impact from the pandemic and a battered energy industry. Output should bounce back to growth next year, however, driven by a recovery in external demand and hydrocarbon prices. The recent surge in Covid-19 cases and the escalating conflict with Armenia pose key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.9% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2022.
Azerbaijan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||1.70||-0.66 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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