Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

September 3, 2019

Growth appears to have shifted into a higher gear at the outset of the third quarter, following a somewhat weak expansion in the second quarter. The second-quarter slowdown was driven by tumbling crude oil production, which weighed on overall industrial sector output and dented the external sector, largely offsetting gains from a spike in natural gas production. In July, economic activity seemingly picked up slightly, on an upturn in the oil and gas sector. Higher oil and gas output supported stronger industrial production growth in July, while booming capital investment into the oil and gas sector boded well for overall investment activity growth. In addition, an acceleration in retail sales suggested consumer demand strengthened somewhat in July. That said, the agricultural sector lost momentum in July, following robust output growth in the second quarter.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to accelerate this year, thanks to robust domestic demand. Rising wages should support household consumption, while investment activity will benefit from a lower interest rate environment and improving investor confidence. Meanwhile, higher natural gas output and a solid manufacturing sector are seen counterbalancing faltering oil production. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.49.59.69.79.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,8707,9265,5253,9014,149
GDP (USD bn)73.675.153.037.940.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.82.81.1-3.10.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.8-0.72.4-0.5-3.4
Unemployment Rate5.04.95.05.05.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.5-1.2-0.4-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.614.435.050.753.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)19.06.1-50.634.10.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.6-0.27.615.77.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.44.012.412.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.753.503.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.781.031.601.72
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.791.031.601.73
Current Account (% of GDP)16.713.9-0.4-3.64.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)12.310.4-0.2-1.41.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)20.618.95.84.26.1
Exports (USD billion)31.828.315.613.215.2
Imports (USD billion)11.29.39.89.09.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.6-11.1-44.8-15.214.7
Imports (annual variation in %)7.1-16.34.7-7.90.4
International Reserves (USD)15.015.57.97.16.7
External Debt (% of GDP)14.516.426.039.737.4

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 04

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