Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

September 8, 2020

The economy continued to falter at the outset of Q3, after it shrank 2.7% on an annual basis during the first half of the year as the Covid-19 fallout hammered activity in Q2. Industrial output fell more sharply in July compared to January–June, as a marked decline in oil and gas production outweighed the solid increase in output in the non-oil and gas sector. In addition, retail sales continued to slip in July, hinting at weak consumer demand. Moreover, authorities recently extended some lockdown restrictions until the end of September due to rising Covid-19 infections, which could weigh on activity further. Meanwhile, President Aliyev approved a revised 2020 budget in mid-August to take into account the blow to public finances dealt by the pandemic and low oil prices, with a budget deficit now estimated at roughly 12.5% of GDP, down substantially from the original 2.3% of GDP.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Economic output is expected to drop notably this year as the pandemic hits domestic demand, with containment measures and heightened uncertainty denting household and capital spending. The global recession, subdued oil prices and lower crude production will also take their toll on the vital oil and gas industry, hitting exports and government revenues in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, GDP growth is seen at 2.9%.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.69.79.89.910.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,5253,9014,1614,7404,777
GDP (USD bn)53.037.940.947.148.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.1-3.10.21.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.4-0.5-3.41.51.8
Unemployment Rate5.05.05.04.95.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-0.4-1.6-0.4-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.050.753.248.4-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-50.233.00.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.615.77.91.62.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.012.412.92.32.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.0015.0015.009.757.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.031.601.721.701.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.031.601.731.701.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-3.64.112.89.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-1.41.76.14.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.84.26.19.88.5
Exports (USD billion)15.613.215.220.819.9
Imports (USD billion)9.89.09.011.011.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.8-15.214.737.2-4.5
Imports (annual variation in %)4.7-7.90.421.23.5
International Reserves (USD)7.97.16.76.77.0
External Debt (% of GDP)25.439.037.834.4-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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