Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

October 5, 2021

The economy grew 3.6% in the January-August period compared to the same period of 2020, accelerating from the 2.7% increase recorded in January-July. The non-oil sector continued to lead the upturn, increasing by close to 6.0% in the first eight months of the year. Industrial production growth gained considerable steam, underpinning the recovery, while capital spending slid at a softer rate in year-on-year terms in August. Additionally, nominal income dynamics improved for the fourth consecutive month, translating into a further acceleration in retail sales growth. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani oil prices hit a two-year high in late September, boding well for the country’s important oil sector, while efforts are underway to guarantee the full operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project, which could boost trade and tourism ahead.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is set to expand this year and next, as the global pandemic loosens its grip and restrictions are gradually phased out. Sustained infrastructure spending in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as well as rising oil and gas production amid upbeat energy prices and robust global demand, will underpin growth. That said, pandemic-related uncertainty poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.3% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.69.79.89.910.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,5253,9014,1614,7404,777
GDP (USD bn)53.037.940.947.148.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.1-3.10.21.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.4-0.5-3.41.51.8
Unemployment Rate5.05.05.04.95.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-0.4-1.6-0.4-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.050.753.248.4-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-50.233.00.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.615.77.91.62.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.012.412.92.32.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.0015.0015.009.757.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.031.601.721.701.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.031.601.731.701.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-3.64.112.89.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-1.41.76.14.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.84.26.19.88.5
Exports (USD billion)15.613.215.220.819.9
Imports (USD billion)9.89.09.011.011.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.8-15.214.737.2-4.5
Imports (annual variation in %)4.7-7.90.421.23.5
International Reserves (USD)7.97.16.76.77.0
External Debt (% of GDP)25.439.037.834.4-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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