Azerbaijan Economic Forecast
September 8, 2020The economy continued to falter at the outset of Q3, after it shrank 2.7% on an annual basis during the first half of the year as the Covid-19 fallout hammered activity in Q2. Industrial output fell more sharply in July compared to January–June, as a marked decline in oil and gas production outweighed the solid increase in output in the non-oil and gas sector. In addition, retail sales continued to slip in July, hinting at weak consumer demand. Moreover, authorities recently extended some lockdown restrictions until the end of September due to rising Covid-19 infections, which could weigh on activity further. Meanwhile, President Aliyev approved a revised 2020 budget in mid-August to take into account the blow to public finances dealt by the pandemic and low oil prices, with a budget deficit now estimated at roughly 12.5% of GDP, down substantially from the original 2.3% of GDP.
Azerbaijan Economic GrowthEconomic output is expected to drop notably this year as the pandemic hits domestic demand, with containment measures and heightened uncertainty denting household and capital spending. The global recession, subdued oil prices and lower crude production will also take their toll on the vital oil and gas industry, hitting exports and government revenues in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, GDP growth is seen at 2.9%.
Azerbaijan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||1.70||-0.66 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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