Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

November 28, 2017

Azerbaijan’s oil-dependent economy continues to struggle. The monthly GDP indicator showed that the economy shrank 0.7% in the first 10 months of the year compared to the same period last year. However, the non-oil economy posted a solid 2.1% growth rate in the same time frame. It was carried by growth in non-oil industrial and agricultural production, which offset a contraction in fixed investment. In late November, parliament started discussions on the draft budget for the next four years; the budget is likely to focus on supporting non-oil economic activity in a bid to diversify the economy and improve the business environment.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Ahead of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Brussels on 24 November, the EU commented that substantial progress has been made in its relationship with Azerbaijan, which could improve the country’s export potential. The non-oil sector and household spending are expected to propel the economy next year. Our panel sees GDP grow of 1.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2019.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)9.29.39.39.49.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,5948,0148,0673,6953,508
GDP (USD bn)69.874.375.434.833.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.25.82.81.1-3.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.61.8-0.72.4-0.4
Unemployment Rate0.80.80.60.6-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.6-0.5-1.2-0.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)13.912.811.228.337.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)25.519.06.1-50.233.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.33.6-0.27.514.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.12.41.44.012.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.004.753.503.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.780.780.781.561.76
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.780.780.791.031.60
Current Account (% of GDP)21.317.613.8-0.6-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)14.913.110.4-0.2-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)22.221.418.95.84.2
Exports (USD billion)32.631.728.315.613.2
Imports (USD billion)10.410.39.39.89.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.4-2.9-10.9-44.8-15.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.5-0.9-9.64.7-7.9
International Reserves (USD)11.614.213.85.04.0
External Debt (% of GDP)14.813.615.638.0-  

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Azerbaijan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.70-0.66 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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