Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

July 31, 2018

Economic momentum gained steam in the first half of the year on the back of a strengthening non-oil sector. Annual GDP growth for the January–June period was 1.3%, up from the 1.1% recorded in the first five months of the year. The non-oil sector continued to outpace the oil sector, where growth essentially flatlined. Moreover, in the same period, industrial production accelerated; it was similarly driven by higher non-oil output. Despite weaker growth in the all-important oil sector, higher oil prices continue to buoy the economy. In light of higher prices, the 2018 state oil fund budget was amended on 17 July to account for increased hydrocarbon revenue.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to shift into a higher gear this year and next, driven by higher oil prices, recovering industrial production and stronger domestic demand. Moreover, important reforms aimed at diversifying the economy and broadening the private sector should also foster growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.4% in 2019.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	9.4	9.5	9.6	9.7	9.8
GDP per capita (USD)	7,926	7,939	5,525	3,901	4,149
GDP (USD bn)	74.2	75.2	53.0	37.9	40.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.8	2.8	1.1	-3.8	0.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.8	-0.7	2.4	-0.5	-3.4
Unemployment Rate	5.0	4.9	5.0	5.0	5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.6	-0.5	-1.2	-0.4	-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	12.6	14.4	35.0	50.7	-
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	19.0	6.1	-50.2	33.0	0.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.6	-0.2	7.5	14.8	7.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.4	1.4	4.0	12.4	12.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.75	3.50	3.00	15.00	15.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.78	0.78	1.56	1.76	1.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	0.78	0.79	1.03	1.60	1.73
Current Account (% of GDP)	15.9	13.2	-0.4	-3.6	4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	11.8	10.0	-0.2	-1.4	1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	21.4	18.9	5.8	4.2	6.1
Exports (USD billion)	31.7	28.3	15.6	13.2	15.2
Imports (USD billion)	10.3	9.3	9.8	9.0	9.0
Exports (annual variation in %)	-2.9	-10.9	-44.8	-15.2	14.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	-0.9	-9.6	4.7	-7.9	0.4
International Reserves (USD)	14.2	13.8	5.0	4.0	5.3
External Debt (% of GDP)	13.6	15.7	24.9	37.2	-

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Azerbaijan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.70	-0.66 %	Aug 15
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Aug 15

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