Azerbaijan Economic Forecast
July 2, 2019The economy appears to have lost some momentum in the second quarter of the year, on the heels of a healthy first-quarter expansion which was fueled by the oil sector. Economic activity growth moderated in April–May, largely driven by a downturn in the oil sector: Azerbaijan’s oil output contracted on an annual basis in the period due to maintenance works in April as well as the country’s commitment to OPEC+ oil cuts. This likely weighed on oil export income and dragged on government revenues, eating into gains stemming from higher global oil prices in April–May. Meanwhile, non-oil activity remained buoyant in the first two months of Q2: Healthy non-oil investment activity growth, rising agricultural production and a solid increase in industrial output, excluding the oil-sector production, signaled that other sectors remained strong in the quarter. On top of that, non-oil exports continued surging in April–May.
Azerbaijan Economic GrowthGrowth should accelerate this year, thanks to increasing natural gas production and robust non-oil sector momentum. Solid private consumption growth, supported by rising wages and stable inflation, and an upturn in investment activity, aided by a more accommodative monetary policy environment and improving investor confidence, will support the domestic economy. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.
Azerbaijan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||1.70||-0.66 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jul 11|
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