Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

March 5, 2019

The economy picked up last year on improving non-oil activities, although protracted weakness in the oil sector—which has seen production shrink over the years—kept the overall pace of expansion sluggish. Growth was supported by an upturn in the services sector and robust agricultural output. Meanwhile, on the demand side, higher wages coupled with declining inflation likely shored up private consumption. Prospects appear more upbeat going into 2019: Growth picked up in January, with a boost in oil output and solid performances by the non-oil sectors.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to strengthen this year on robust domestic demand dynamics, a gradual recovery in investment, and improving investor confidence. That said, downside risks to the outlook stem from lower-than-expected commodity prices and a more challenging trade environment. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	9.4	9.5	9.6	9.7	9.8
GDP per capita (USD)	7,926	7,939	5,525	3,901	4,149
GDP (USD bn)	74.2	75.2	53.0	37.9	40.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.8	2.8	1.1	-3.8	0.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.8	-0.7	2.4	-0.5	-3.4
Unemployment Rate	5.0	4.9	5.0	5.0	5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.6	-0.5	-1.2	-0.4	-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	12.6	14.4	35.0	50.7	-
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	19.0	6.1	-50.2	33.0	0.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.6	-0.2	7.5	14.8	7.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.4	1.4	4.0	12.4	12.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.75	3.50	3.00	15.00	15.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.78	0.78	1.56	1.76	1.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	0.78	0.79	1.03	1.60	1.73
Current Account (% of GDP)	15.9	13.2	-0.4	-3.6	4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	11.8	10.0	-0.2	-1.4	1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	21.4	18.9	5.8	4.2	6.1
Exports (USD billion)	31.7	28.3	15.6	13.2	15.2
Imports (USD billion)	10.3	9.3	9.8	9.0	9.0
Exports (annual variation in %)	-2.9	-10.9	-44.8	-15.2	14.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	-0.9	-9.6	4.7	-7.9	0.4
International Reserves (USD)	14.2	13.8	5.0	4.0	5.3
External Debt (% of GDP)	13.6	15.7	24.9	37.2	-

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Azerbaijan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.70	-0.66 %	Mar 20
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Mar 20

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