Azerbaijan Economic Forecast

January 8, 2019

Recent data suggests that growth strengthened in November, after a lackluster start to the fourth quarter. Economic activity picked up pace bolstered by accelerating growth in the non-oil sector. Despite improving somewhat over the past year, the energy sector remained battered with oil prices falling sharply at the end of 2018. Although oil production picked up modestly in November, according to the energy minister, the rise will likely be short-lived after Azerbaijan agreed to limit oil production in December, along with OPEC and Russia’s output quotas. That said, some analysts doubt if Azerbaijan will meet their obligations to the deal.

Azerbaijan Economic Growth

Growth is seen picking up this year, thanks to a recovery in the energy sector and solid government spending. However, risks to Azerbaijan’s outlook linger from lower-than-expected commodity prices or a pronounced downturn in Russia’s economy. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, GDP is seen growing 2.5%.

Azerbaijan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	9.4	9.5	9.6	9.7	9.8
GDP per capita (USD)	7,926	7,939	5,525	3,901	4,149
GDP (USD bn)	74.2	75.2	53.0	37.9	40.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.8	2.8	1.1	-3.8	0.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.8	-0.7	2.4	-0.5	-3.4
Unemployment Rate	5.0	4.9	5.0	5.0	5.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.6	-0.5	-1.2	-0.4	-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	12.6	14.4	35.0	50.7	-
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	19.0	6.1	-50.2	33.0	0.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.6	-0.2	7.5	14.8	7.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.4	1.4	4.0	12.4	12.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.75	3.50	3.00	15.00	15.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.78	0.78	1.56	1.76	1.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	0.78	0.79	1.03	1.60	1.73
Current Account (% of GDP)	15.9	13.2	-0.4	-3.6	4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	11.8	10.0	-0.2	-1.4	1.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	21.4	18.9	5.8	4.2	6.1
Exports (USD billion)	31.7	28.3	15.6	13.2	15.2
Imports (USD billion)	10.3	9.3	9.8	9.0	9.0
Exports (annual variation in %)	-2.9	-10.9	-44.8	-15.2	14.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	-0.9	-9.6	4.7	-7.9	0.4
International Reserves (USD)	14.2	13.8	5.0	4.0	5.3
External Debt (% of GDP)	13.6	15.7	24.9	37.2	-

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Azerbaijan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	1.70	-0.66 %	Jan 16
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 16

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