Armenia Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

Recent data indicates that the robust pace of growth in the first quarter likely cooled in the second quarter, but remained strong nonetheless. Economic activity accelerated in June and industrial production rebounded, after contracting in April and May. Healthy momentum should have carried over into Q3, supported by the region’s economic recovery, which should help boost export growth and lead to stronger remittance inflows; remittance inflows grew at a solid rate in the first quarter. In political news, the government has begun drafting the state budget for 2019, which is expected to focus on improving government finances.

Armenia Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to remain strong this year, although it is seen slowing from the stellar rate observed in 2017. However, political uncertainty ahead of the snap elections, expected to be held in 2019, could weigh on foreign investment. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will grow 4.7% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2019.

Armenia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0
GDP per capita (USD)	3,720	3,966	3,574	3,569	3,862
GDP (USD bn)	11.1	11.8	10.7	10.7	11.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.3	3.6	3.2	0.2	7.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)	0.9	1.0	-7.8	-1.1	8.8
Investment (annual variation in %)	-7.0	-2.2	2.5	-11.4	7.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	7.3	2.6	5.1	6.8	12.6
Unemployment Rate	16.2	17.8	19.5	17.1	18.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.5	-1.9	-4.8	-5.4	-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	40.8	43.7	48.7	56.7	58.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	14.9	-3.5	5.2	24.8	28.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.8	3.0	3.7	-1.4	1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	7.75	8.50	8.75	6.25	6.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	405.3	463.5	482.9	482.8	483.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	409.6	415.9	477.9	480.5	482.7
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.3	-7.5	-2.5	-2.2	-3.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.8	-0.9	-0.3	-0.2	-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.2	-2.1	-1.2	-0.9	-1.5
Exports (USD billion)	1.6	1.7	1.6	1.9	2.4
Imports (USD billion)	3.8	3.8	2.8	2.8	3.9
Exports (annual variation in %)	7.9	3.8	-4.4	16.4	25.8
Imports (annual variation in %)	5.6	-2.0	-25.1	0.9	36.2
International Reserves (EUR)	1.6	1.2	1.6	2.1	1.9
External Debt (% of GDP)	78.8	72.1	83.5	93.2	91.1

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Armenia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Aug 07

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