Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Available data suggests that the economy remained subdued in Q3, after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and related containment measures crushed demand in Q2. Although the pace of contraction in economic activity moderated in Q3 compared to Q2, it still remained stark as the services sector continued to languish. Additionally, coronavirus infections started to rise rapidly in mid-September, and accelerated further through October. This, coupled with renewed fighting in the Armenia–Azerbaijan military conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as internationally-backed ceasefires have failed to take hold, bodes ill for general activity in Q4. Meanwhile, in early October, Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating to B+ from BB- on a higher-than-expected public debt trajectory ahead.

Armenia Economic Growth

After the first downturn since the 2009 global financial crisis this year, GDP is expected to rebound in 2021 as external demand recovers, supporting the tourism industry in turn, and consumer and business confidence strengthen. Key risks remain, however, including uncertainty over the path of the health crisis and sustained hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Our panelists see GDP growth at 4.9% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 5.3% in 2022.

Armenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,5743,5673,8754,2014,649
GDP (USD bn)10.710.711.512.513.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.20.27.55.27.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.1-1.312.17.610.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-8.87.08.65.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.16.812.64.49.0
Unemployment Rate19.517.118.016.917.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-5.5-4.8-1.8-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.151.953.751.350.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)5.224.828.913.221.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.7-1.41.02.51.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.756.256.006.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)482.9482.8483.2484.7478.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)477.9480.5482.7483.0480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.3-8.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1
Exports (USD billion)1.61.92.42.62.9
Imports (USD billion)2.82.83.84.44.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.416.426.210.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.10.932.617.511.4
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.11.92.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)83.593.291.287.588.4

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Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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