Armenia Economic Outlook
October 6, 2020GDP collapsed in the second quarter as the Covid-19 fallout pummeled nearly all sectors of the economy. On the expenditure side, private consumption, capital spending and exports all plunged at a double-digit pace as activity screeched to a halt and demand evaporated. Moreover, incoming data suggests the economy was still reeling from the health crisis in Q3: Economic activity continued to shrink markedly in July and August, with the services and construction sectors most severely hit. Additionally, although the state of emergency was lifted on 11 September, some restrictions will remain in place until January next year, which could hamper the recovery going forward. Meanwhile, heavy fighting erupted between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces on 27 September over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.
Armenia Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to fall into recession this year as lockdowns at home and abroad to contain the spread of the coronavirus hammer activity. That said, output is seen rebounding solidly next year as demand recovers. A weak recovery in major trading partner Russia, a resurgence of Covid-19 cases and an increased risk of instability in the Caucasus cloud the outlook. Our panelists see GDP falling 4.5% in 2020. For 2021, the panel projects GDP to grow 5.1%, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Armenia Economy Data
5 years of Armenia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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