Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Economic growth seems to have lost some steam in Q3 but remained buoyant nonetheless. The three-month average of the monthly economic activity index, a proxy for quarterly GDP, came in at 4.0% annually in Q3, below Q2’s 5.6%. Growth in industrial production in October almost doubled from September, and remittances increased 15.5% in the January-to-October period. In October, the government secured a USD 40 million deal with the Asian Development Bank; the Bank committed to cooperate with the government to improve the quality of public administration, enhance public-private partnerships, and build infrastructure.

Armenia Economic Growth

The economy is likely grow on the back of solid domestic demand and growth in exports. Higher remittance inflows should support private consumption, and the recovery in oil prices is set to support fixed investment growth. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2019.

Armenia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)3,4973,7203,9663,5743,578
GDP (USD bn)10.411.111.810.710.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-7.0-2.22.5-11.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate15.716.217.819.517.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-2.6-2.1-2.7-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.440.843.748.756.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)11.914.9-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.007.758.508.756.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)405.5405.3463.5482.9482.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)401.8409.6415.9477.9480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.2-7.3-7.5-2.5-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.1-0.8-0.9-0.3-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.2-2.1-1.2-0.9
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)2.55.6-2.0-25.10.9
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)73.978.872.183.593.0

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Stock Market1.20.0 %Dec 06

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