Armenia Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Available data suggests that the economy remained subdued in Q3, after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and related containment measures crushed demand in Q2. Although the pace of contraction in economic activity moderated in Q3 compared to Q2, it still remained stark as the services sector continued to languish. Additionally, coronavirus infections started to rise rapidly in mid-September, and accelerated further through October. This, coupled with renewed fighting in the Armenia–Azerbaijan military conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as internationally-backed ceasefires have failed to take hold, bodes ill for general activity in Q4. Meanwhile, in early October, Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating to B+ from BB- on a higher-than-expected public debt trajectory ahead.
Armenia Economic GrowthAfter the first downturn since the 2009 global financial crisis this year, GDP is expected to rebound in 2021 as external demand recovers, supporting the tourism industry in turn, and consumer and business confidence strengthen. Key risks remain, however, including uncertainty over the path of the health crisis and sustained hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Our panelists see GDP growth at 4.9% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 5.3% in 2022.
Armenia Economy Data
5 years of Armenia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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