Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

Following Q2’s record economic expansion in year-on-year terms (Q2: +13.1% yoy; Q1: -3.3% yoy) driven by a broad-based improvement, available data for the third quarter points to a slowdown in momentum. Economic activity growth slowed to a four-month low in July amid continued pandemic-related restrictions. Moreover, consumer loans swung into contraction in the first two months of the quarter, logging the lowest result since December 2015 in August, potentially signaling weak consumer spending. Meanwhile, as the country struggles with a lackluster vaccination campaign and a sharp rise in new Covid-19 infections, on 30 September authorities announced they were set to receive a donation of 50,000 Moderna jabs from Lithuania. Furthermore, in an effort to accelerate vaccine uptake, the country started to introduce certain vaccination requirements for businesses from 1 October.

Armenia Economic Growth

The economy should rebound this year, in line with recovering activity at home and abroad. In 2022, prospects seems even brighter, with GDP growth set to accelerate further as restrictions are lifted. Nevertheless, delays in the vaccine rollout and reignited political tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan pose downside risks to the outlook. Our panelists see GDP growth at 5.3% in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Armenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,5743,5673,8754,2014,649
GDP (USD bn)10.710.711.512.513.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.20.27.55.27.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.1-1.312.17.610.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-8.87.08.65.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.16.812.64.49.0
Unemployment Rate19.517.118.016.917.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-5.5-4.8-1.8-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.151.953.751.350.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)5.224.828.913.221.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.7-1.41.02.51.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.756.256.006.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)482.9482.8483.2484.7478.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)477.9480.5482.7483.0480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.3-8.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1
Exports (USD billion)1.61.92.42.62.9
Imports (USD billion)2.82.83.84.44.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.416.426.210.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.10.932.617.511.4
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.11.92.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)83.593.291.287.588.4

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Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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