Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

October 6, 2020

GDP collapsed in the second quarter as the Covid-19 fallout pummeled nearly all sectors of the economy. On the expenditure side, private consumption, capital spending and exports all plunged at a double-digit pace as activity screeched to a halt and demand evaporated. Moreover, incoming data suggests the economy was still reeling from the health crisis in Q3: Economic activity continued to shrink markedly in July and August, with the services and construction sectors most severely hit. Additionally, although the state of emergency was lifted on 11 September, some restrictions will remain in place until January next year, which could hamper the recovery going forward. Meanwhile, heavy fighting erupted between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces on 27 September over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, escalating geopolitical tensions in the region.

Armenia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to fall into recession this year as lockdowns at home and abroad to contain the spread of the coronavirus hammer activity. That said, output is seen rebounding solidly next year as demand recovers. A weak recovery in major trading partner Russia, a resurgence of Covid-19 cases and an increased risk of instability in the Caucasus cloud the outlook. Our panelists see GDP falling 4.5% in 2020. For 2021, the panel projects GDP to grow 5.1%, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Armenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,5743,5673,8754,2014,649
GDP (USD bn)10.710.711.512.513.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.20.27.55.27.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.1-1.312.17.610.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-8.87.08.65.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.16.812.64.49.0
Unemployment Rate19.517.118.016.917.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-5.5-4.8-1.8-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.151.953.751.350.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)5.224.828.913.221.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.7-1.41.02.51.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.756.256.006.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)482.9482.8483.2484.7478.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)477.9480.5482.7483.0480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.3-8.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1
Exports (USD billion)1.61.92.42.62.9
Imports (USD billion)2.82.83.84.44.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.416.426.210.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.10.932.617.511.4
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.11.92.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)83.593.291.287.588.4

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Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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