Armenia Economic Outlook

October 1, 2019

Soaring household consumption kept growth buoyant in the second quarter, although it moderated from the first quarter’s stellar result. Solid wage growth, muted inflation and revived confidence after the political transition has buttressed consumer spending. Turning to the third quarter, incoming data suggests that the economy continued to grow briskly, although is likely moderating to more sustainable levels. Industrial and services output grew solidly in August, broadly matching July’s result, but activity in the construction sector lost steam. Meanwhile, the government presented a draft bill in September to increase child benefits, including higher cash handouts and longer childcare, in an effort to boost the birth rate. The move should also help stimulate demand when enacted.

Armenia Economic Growth

The economy is seen growing solidly this year and next, on the back of rising wages, modest price pressures and accommodative monetary policy. Risks to the outlook are chiefly external, resulting from subdued export demand and remittances inflows from key trading partners, and lower-then-expected commodities prices. Our panelists see the economy growing 5.0% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s outlook.

Armenia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0
GDP per capita (USD)	3,720	3,966	3,574	3,569	3,859
GDP (USD bn)	11.1	11.8	10.7	10.7	11.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.3	3.6	3.2	0.2	7.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)	0.9	1.0	-7.8	-1.1	12.4
Investment (annual variation in %)	-7.0	-2.2	2.5	-11.4	9.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	7.3	2.6	5.1	6.8	12.6
Unemployment Rate	16.2	17.8	19.5	17.1	18.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.6	-1.9	-4.8	-5.5	-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	40.8	43.7	48.7	56.8	58.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	14.9	-3.5	5.2	24.8	28.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.8	3.0	3.7	-1.4	1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	7.75	8.50	8.75	6.25	6.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	405.3	463.5	482.9	482.8	483.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	409.6	415.9	477.9	480.5	482.7
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.3	-7.6	-2.7	-2.0	-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.8	-0.9	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.2	-2.1	-1.2	-0.9	-1.4
Exports (USD billion)	1.6	1.7	1.6	1.9	2.4
Imports (USD billion)	3.8	3.8	2.8	2.8	3.8
Exports (annual variation in %)	7.9	3.8	-4.4	16.4	26.2
Imports (annual variation in %)	5.6	-2.0	-25.1	0.9	32.6
International Reserves (EUR)	1.6	1.2	1.6	2.1	1.9
External Debt (% of GDP)	78.8	72.1	83.5	93.2	91.2

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Armenia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Sep 04

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