Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

July 30, 2019

Incoming data suggests that growth softened towards the end of the second quarter, after a solid first quarter and opening months of Q2. Economic activity grew at the slowest pace in eight months in June amid slower services and construction activity. In addition, export growth slowed notably in the same month, while imports rebounded solidly. Meanwhile, on 11 July, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that pensions would be increased by 10% at the start of 2020, which should boost consumption. However, there are some concerns over the government’s finances as it was not revealed where the funding for this would come from. The government has been on a notable reform drive this year, including passing a tax reform package at the end of June.

Armenia Economic Growth

The economy is seen growing robustly this year, although it will slow somewhat from 2018’s pace. Rising wages and credit growth should boost household spending, while recovering confidence after last year’s political transition is seen lifting investment. However, soft momentum in Russia and subdued commodities prices will weigh on activity. Our panelists see the economy growing 4.8% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2020.

Armenia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)3,7203,9663,5743,5693,859
GDP (USD bn)11.111.810.710.711.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.91.0-7.8-1.112.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.0-2.22.5-11.49.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate16.217.819.517.118.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-1.9-4.8-5.5-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.843.748.756.858.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.9-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.758.508.756.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)405.3463.5482.9482.8483.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)409.6415.9477.9480.5482.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.3-7.6-2.7-2.0-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.9-0.3-0.2-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.2-2.1-1.2-0.9-1.4
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)7.93.8-4.416.426.2
Imports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.0-25.10.932.6
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)78.872.183.593.291.2

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