Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

GDP growth lost some traction in Q1, following an acceleration in Q4 2021. The downturn was spearheaded by a sharp contraction in government spending, partly due to a base effect, which drove a small decrease in overall consumption during Q1. On a more positive note, Q1’s outturn was generally sturdy, with private spending and fixed investment both benefiting from the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. However, exports of goods and services slowed markedly in Q1. For Q2, available data paint a mixed picture. On the one hand, economic activity growth hit a three-month high in April, as industrial output rebounded. On the other hand, the fallout from the war between Russia—Armenia’s largest trading partner—and Ukraine is likely weighing on activity due to reduced trade, tumbling remittances and lower investment inflows.

Armenia Economic Growth

Our panelists once again slashed their GDP growth projections this month. Activity is seen slowing mostly due to the war in Ukraine, as soaring inflation and lower remittances undermine household spending, while external demand softens. Lingering political tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and an unstable domestic political environment remain significant downside risks. Our panelists see GDP growth at 1.7% in 2022, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2023.

Armenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)3,5743,5673,8754,2014,649
GDP (USD bn)10.710.711.512.513.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.1-1.312.17.610.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.16.812.64.49.0
Unemployment Rate19.517.118.016.917.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-5.5-4.8-1.8-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.151.953.751.350.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)5.224.828.913.221.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.7-
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.756.
Exchange Rate (vs USD)482.9482.8483.2484.7478.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)477.9480.5482.7483.0480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.3-8.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.416.426.210.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.10.932.617.511.4
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)83.593.291.287.588.4

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Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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