Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

July 7, 2020

The economy appears to have deteriorated markedly in the second quarter, after growth nearly halved in the first quarter amid plunging investment and a sharp slowdown in household spending spurred by fallout from Covid-19. Economic activity again contracted notably in May as industrial output and construction activity continued to tumble, despite the government largely reopening the economy at the start of the month. Moreover, exports plunged in the month as the global economy continued to reel from the health crisis. In the political arena, the government stated at the end of June that it would not backtrack on reopening the economy or reinstate a lockdown, despite a sharp jump in new cases and total deaths from the coronavirus.

Armenia Economic Growth

GDP is seen falling for the first time in over a decade this year, as the coronavirus pandemic halts the domestic and external economy. Risks to the outlook remain high from another lockdown and a slow recovery in Russia, which is a main source of remittances and export demand. Our panelists see GDP falling 2.1% in 2020, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel projects GDP growing 5.5%.

Armenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,5743,5673,8754,2014,649
GDP (USD bn)10.710.711.512.513.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.20.27.55.27.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.1-1.312.17.610.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-8.87.08.65.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.16.812.64.49.0
Unemployment Rate19.517.118.016.917.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-5.5-4.8-1.8-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.151.953.751.350.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)5.224.828.913.221.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.7-1.41.02.51.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.756.256.006.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)482.9482.8483.2484.7478.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)477.9480.5482.7483.0480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.3-8.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1
Exports (USD billion)1.61.92.42.62.9
Imports (USD billion)2.82.83.84.44.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.416.426.210.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.10.932.617.511.4
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.11.92.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)83.593.291.287.588.4

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Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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