Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

The economy seems to have expanded at a firmer pace in the first quarter of this year, after GDP growth picked up steam in Q4 2021. Economic activity growth averaged higher in January–March compared to the previous quarter’s average, likely thanks to healthier external demand as pandemic-related constraints subsided. That said, the economy is set to be markedly affected by the economic fallout stemming from Russia-Ukraine war in Q2. Unprecedented international sanctions will likely drive a sharp fall in exports to Russia—Armenia’s largest trading partner—while tumbling remittances and investment from Russia paint a grim picture for domestic demand. Meanwhile, protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan erupted in early May, reflecting a highly volatile political environment domestically and boding poorly for the business climate.

Armenia Economic Growth

GDP growth is projected to cool markedly this year, as the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine bites and government spending shrinks. Moreover, household consumption growth is seen moderating amid reduced remittances and soaring inflation. Lingering political tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and an unstable political situation at home are major outlook risks. Our panelists see GDP growth at 2.6% in 2022, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2023.

Armenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,5743,5673,8754,2014,649
GDP (USD bn)10.710.711.512.513.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.20.27.55.27.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-7.1-1.312.17.610.4
Investment (annual variation in %)2.3-8.87.08.65.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.16.812.64.49.0
Unemployment Rate19.517.118.016.917.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-5.5-4.8-1.8-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.151.953.751.350.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)5.224.828.913.221.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.7-1.41.02.51.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.756.256.006.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)482.9482.8483.2484.7478.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)477.9480.5482.7483.0480.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.3-8.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2-1.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8-2.1
Exports (USD billion)1.61.92.42.62.9
Imports (USD billion)2.82.83.84.44.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.416.426.210.39.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.10.932.617.511.4
International Reserves (EUR)1.62.11.92.02.5
External Debt (% of GDP)83.593.291.287.588.4

Sample Report

5 years of Armenia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form