Armenia Economic Forecast

Armenia Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

The economy seemingly took a hit toward the end of the first quarter due to Covid-19 and its associated containment measures, with worse likely to come. Economic activity fell in March and industrial output contracted for the first time in over a year, while the lockdown in key trading partner Russia is restraining remittance inflows. The state of emergency has been extended to at least 14 May, although restrictions have been eased since early May, allowing restaurants, shops and factories to resume activity. Meanwhile, in mid-April the IMF reached a staff level agreement for a second review of Armenia’s reform program and an increase in financial support of around USD 280 million, which is pending Executive Board approval in mid-May. The additional funds would help to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Armenia Economic Growth

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown measures are set to deal a heavy blow to the economy this year. A sharp decline in remittance inflows from Russia will compound private consumption weakness, while feeble global demand and disrupted production chains will weigh on the external sector. Our panelists see GDP falling 0.3% in 2020, which is down 2.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel projects GDP growing 5.3%.

Armenia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)3.03.03.03.03.0
GDP per capita (USD)3,9663,5743,5673,8754,192
GDP (USD bn)11.810.710.711.512.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.63.20.27.55.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.0-7.8-1.112.44.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.22.5-11.49.74.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.65.16.812.64.4
Unemployment Rate17.819.517.118.016.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-4.8-5.5-4.8-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.748.756.758.855.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-3.55.224.828.913.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.03.7-1.41.02.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.508.756.256.006.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)463.5482.9482.8483.2484.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)415.9477.9480.5482.7483.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.6-2.7-2.0-3.0-9.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.3-0.2-0.3-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-1.2-0.9-1.4-1.8
Exports (USD billion)1.71.61.92.42.6
Imports (USD billion)3.82.82.83.84.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.8-4.416.426.210.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.0-25.10.932.617.5
International Reserves (EUR)1.21.62.11.92.0
External Debt (% of GDP)72.183.593.291.287.7

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Armenia Facts

Value Change Date
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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