Albania Economic Outlook

October 29, 2019

Economic growth inched lower in the second quarter to 2.3% year-on-year from 2.4% in the first quarter, owing to contracting fixed investment. Nevertheless, public and private consumption strengthened, with households benefiting from stable inflationary pressures and cheap credit conditions, while the currency appreciated somewhat. Moreover, growth in exports of goods and services accelerated markedly in Q2; however, this was mainly due to a strong tourism sector as tourist arrivals grew at a robust rate, while exports of goods nosedived. Turning to the third quarter, data is thus far mixed: A severe drought continued to hamstring electricity generation, although tourist arrivals remained upbeat in July–August. Meanwhile, hopes of starting EU accession talks soon were dashed in mid-October amid French, Dutch and Danish opposition.

Albania Economic Growth

Economic growth should accelerate next year, buttressed by a pick-up in exports and resilient domestic demand amid accommodative monetary policy, wage growth and government spending on public projects. Risks are tilted to the downside, however, particularly stemming from international trade tensions dampening momentum in the European Union. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month, and 3.5% in 2021.

Albania Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
GDP per capita (USD)	4,298	4,714	3,955	4,141	4,640
GDP per capita (EUR)	3,307	3,444	3,550	3,728	4,068
GDP (USD bn)	12.4	13.6	11.4	11.9	13.3
GDP (EUR bn)	9.6	9.9	10.2	10.7	11.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	1.0	1.8	2.2	3.3	3.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)	1.8	2.8	1.1	1.9	2.3
Investment (annual variation in %)	-2.0	-4.5	3.8	2.5	5.5
Unemployment Rate	17.6	18.0	17.3	14.2	13.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.0	-5.2	-4.1	-1.8	-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	65.5	70.0	72.7	72.4	70.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.9	1.6	1.9	1.3	2.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	2.25	1.75	1.25	1.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	102.2	115.7	126.1	128.3	110.8
Current Account (% of GDP)	-9.3	-10.8	-8.6	-7.6	-7.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.9	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.9
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-2.0	-2.2	-2.3	-2.6	-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)	1.1	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.8
Imports (EUR billion)	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.3	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	21.8	-12.7	-17.2	-7.5	11.8
Imports (annual variation in %)	-2.3	3.9	-2.4	8.0	9.2
International Reserves (EUR)	2.0	2.2	2.9	2.9	3.0

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Albania Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	110.4	-0.56 %	Sep 04
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Sep 04

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