Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

November 30, 2021

After GDP grew at the fastest rate on record in Q2, momentum seemingly carried over into the third quarter. Both merchandise imports and exports expanded at robust rates in the period, while tourist arrivals approached pre-pandemic levels in both July and August, before moderating in September. Turning to the fourth quarter, conditions seem to have deteriorated somewhat: Tourist arrivals eased again in October, while merchandise export growth averaged lower than in the previous quarter—albeit remaining firmly in double-digit figures. In other news, on 5 November the country received EUR 90 million from the EU to tackle the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, on 26 November, parliament passed the 2022 budget, which sees the deficit expanding to 5.4% in 2022 from a projected 4.6% in 2021. It will aim to support the economic recovery and structural reforms, and strengthen the rule of law.

Albania Economic Growth

As the favorable base effect subsides, GDP growth should moderate in 2022 amid a broad-based slowdown in activity. Fixed investment is expected to temper, while a normalization of global trade should see export growth ease from this year’s projected rebound. Possible delays in EU membership talks and risks stemming from the health crisis weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.1% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees the economy growing 3.8%.

Albania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,9554,1414,6385,2665,425
GDP per capita (EUR)3,4983,6874,0164,4394,735
GDP (USD bn)11.411.913.315.115.6
GDP (EUR bn)10.110.611.512.813.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.33.84.12.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.11.92.63.23.3
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.56.72.6-3.1
Unemployment Rate17.314.213.412.311.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-1.8-2.0-1.6-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)74.073.270.268.066.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.32.02.01.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.751.251.251.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)126.1128.3110.8108.1108.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-7.7-7.5-6.8-7.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.8-0.9-0.9-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.3-2.6-2.8-2.9-3.1
Exports (EUR billion)0.80.70.81.00.9
Imports (EUR billion)3.13.33.63.94.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.2-7.511.823.7-8.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.48.09.26.55.0
International Reserves (EUR)2.92.93.03.43.4

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Albania Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate108.6-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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