Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Indicators suggest the economy remained in fairly good shape in the fourth quarter of 2017, despite a moderation in business and consumer sentiment from the previous quarter and a further appreciation of the lek against the euro. Non-performing loans stood at 14.3% at the end of November, down from 20.4% in November of the previous year, while lending growth continued to recover following a trough earlier in the year. Improving credit conditions, coupled with a stronger labor market and rising real disposable income, likely continued to support household spending in Q4 following a robust Q3 outturn.

Albania Economic Growth

Healthy foreign infrastructure investment and faster private consumption growth should support the economy this year. The external sector will also continue to buttress growth amid strong EU demand and despite the strong currency. Our panel expects the economy to grow 3.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, the panel also sees growth of 3.9%.

Albania Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)4,2324,3424,5843,9264,129
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3353,3413,4563,5243,717
GDP (USD bn)12.312.613.311.311.9
GDP (EUR bn)9.79.710.010.210.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.41.01.82.23.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.11.42.7-0.23.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.9-2.1-3.911.37.7
Unemployment Rate14.117.118.017.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.00.0-  -4.1-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)64.268.071.877.076.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.01.91.61.91.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.002.251.751.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)106.2102.2115.7126.1128.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.2-10.6-12.9-10.8-9.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.0-1.3-  -  -  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.3-1.9-2.1-2.1-2.4
Exports (EUR billion)1.51.71.81.71.8
Imports (EUR billion)3.83.73.93.94.2
Exports (annual variation in %)10.813.24.4-4.92.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.5-4.17.3-1.48.6
International Reserves (EUR)2.02.0-  -  -  

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Albania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate106.9-0.56 %Feb 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 22

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