Albania Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

In the final quarter of last year, economic growth was likely fairly robust, amid mild inflation and stronger tourist arrivals. However, growth in merchandise exports softened, while the earthquake that hit the country in November will have weighed on the economy. Turning to 2020, available data is seemingly positive: In January, exports growth hit a near one-year high, while tourist arrivals expanded at the strongest pace in 16 months, boding well for the economy in the first quarter. In politics, tensions came to the fore in early March after the government fired judges, allegedly to root out corruption and strengthen the rule of law in accordance with EU demands. While it sparked criticism from the opposition and the president, on 2 March the European Commission praised the country’s reform progress, again recommending the opening of accession talks.

Albania Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to firm this year on the back of accommodative monetary policy, sustained wage growth, a stronger external sector and infrastructure expenditure. Corruption, overreliance on the hydroelectric sector, a cumbersome tax system and external headwinds in the form of trade tensions and the coronavirus outbreak cloud the horizon. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 3.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month, and 3.6% again in 2021.

Albania Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
GDP per capita (USD)	4,714	3,955	4,141	4,640	5,251
GDP per capita (EUR)	3,444	3,550	3,728	4,068	4,497
GDP (USD bn)	13.6	11.4	11.9	13.3	15.1
GDP (EUR bn)	9.9	10.2	10.7	11.7	12.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	1.8	2.2	3.3	3.8	4.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.8	1.1	1.9	2.3	3.2
Investment (annual variation in %)	-4.5	3.8	2.5	5.5	2.9
Unemployment Rate	18.0	17.3	14.2	13.4	12.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.2	-4.1	-1.8	-2.0	-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	70.0	72.7	72.4	70.1	67.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.6	1.9	1.3	2.0	2.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	2.25	1.75	1.25	1.25	1.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	115.7	126.1	128.3	110.8	108.1
Current Account (% of GDP)	-10.8	-8.6	-7.6	-7.4	-6.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.9	-0.9
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-2.2	-2.3	-2.6	-2.8	-2.9
Exports (EUR billion)	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.8	1.0
Imports (EUR billion)	3.1	3.1	3.3	3.6	3.9
Exports (annual variation in %)	-12.7	-17.2	-7.5	11.8	23.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	3.9	-2.4	8.0	9.2	6.5
International Reserves (EUR)	2.2	2.9	2.9	3.0	3.4

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Albania Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	108.6	-0.56 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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