Albania Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Economic growth should have been strong in Q3, supported by healthy growth in exports and tourist arrivals, and favorable weather buttressing electricity generation. Similar drivers appear to be at play in Q4. In October, robust export growth was driven by the minerals, fuels and electricity sub-sector. On 20 November the IMF concluded its staff visit to Albania. Despite affirming a positive outlook on growth, the IMF encouraged the government to speed up fiscal consolidation. The IMF also called for an improvement to the monetary policy transmission mechanism, to boost credit growth.

Albania Economic Growth

Going forward, growth should be solid thanks to stronger exports, fixed investment and public spending. Global financial tightening, an economic slowdown in the EU and vulnerability to drought—which would dampen domestic electricity production—are downside risks. Our panel expects growth of 3.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2020.

Albania Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
GDP per capita (USD)	4,298	4,714	3,953	4,133	4,537
GDP per capita (EUR)	3,307	3,444	3,562	3,735	4,025
GDP (USD bn)	12.4	13.6	11.4	11.9	13.0
GDP (EUR bn)	9.6	9.9	10.3	10.7	11.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	1.0	1.8	2.2	3.4	3.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)	1.8	2.8	0.9	2.6	2.9
Investment (annual variation in %)	-2.0	-4.6	3.5	3.3	7.7
Unemployment Rate	17.6	18.0	17.3	14.2	13.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.0	-5.2	-4.1	-1.8	-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	65.6	70.1	72.7	72.3	70.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.9	1.6	1.9	1.3	2.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	2.25	1.75	1.25	1.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	102.2	115.7	126.1	128.3	110.8
Current Account (% of GDP)	-9.3	-10.8	-8.6	-7.6	-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.9	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-2.0	-2.2	-2.3	-2.6	-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)	1.1	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.8
Imports (EUR billion)	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.3	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	21.8	-12.7	-17.2	-7.5	11.8
Imports (annual variation in %)	-2.3	3.9	-2.4	8.0	9.2
International Reserves (EUR)	2.0	2.2	2.9	2.9	3.0

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Albania Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	108.8	-0.56 %	Dec 12
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Dec 12

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