Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

Economic growth is likely to have kept a similar pace of expansion in the first quarter compared to the prior quarter on a mixed bag of data. Foreign tourist arrivals grew year-on-year in the first quarter, which should have given a boost to private consumption and the wider economy. That said, arrivals only rebounded modestly from the previous quarter’s small decrease. Moreover, construction materials and metals imports recovered in March, suggesting the construction sector performed better around the turn of the quarter. However, the trade deficit widened in the first quarter as exports contracted and imports increased. Meanwhile, in the political arena, anti-government protests continued in recent weeks as the 30 June local elections edge closer.

Albania Economic Growth

Albania’s economy should continue growing robustly this year on the back of firming domestic demand, supported by a tightening labor market and private credit growth underpinning household expenditure. Moreover, electricity production should continue to buttress exports. However, potential droughts threaten the sector, while a prolonged slowdown in the Eurozone also clouds the economic outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.

Albania Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,7143,9534,1334,537
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,4443,5623,7354,025
GDP (USD bn)12.413.611.411.913.0
GDP (EUR bn)9.69.910.310.711.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.0-
Unemployment Rate17.618.017.314.213.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-5.2-4.1-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)65.670.172.772.370.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)102.2115.7126.1128.3110.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.3-10.8-8.6-7.6-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.8-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.2-2.3-2.6-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)
Imports (EUR billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)21.8-12.7-17.2-7.511.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.33.9-
International Reserves (EUR)

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Albania Facts

Exchange Rate110.0-0.56 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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