Albania Economic Outlook
February 6, 2018Indicators suggest the economy remained in fairly good shape in the fourth quarter of 2017, despite a moderation in business and consumer sentiment from the previous quarter and a further appreciation of the lek against the euro. Non-performing loans stood at 14.3% at the end of November, down from 20.4% in November of the previous year, while lending growth continued to recover following a trough earlier in the year. Improving credit conditions, coupled with a stronger labor market and rising real disposable income, likely continued to support household spending in Q4 following a robust Q3 outturn.
Albania Economic GrowthHealthy foreign infrastructure investment and faster private consumption growth should support the economy this year. The external sector will also continue to buttress growth amid strong EU demand and despite the strong currency. Our panel expects the economy to grow 3.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, the panel also sees growth of 3.9%.
Albania Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,232||4,342||4,584||3,926||4,129|
|GDP per capita (EUR)||3,335||3,341||3,456||3,524||3,717|
|GDP (USD bn)||12.3||12.6||13.3||11.3||11.9|
|GDP (EUR bn)||9.7||9.7||10.0||10.2||10.7|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||1.4||1.0||1.8||2.2||3.4|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||0.1||1.4||2.7||-0.2||3.3|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||-7.9||-2.1||-3.9||11.3||7.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||0.0||0.0||-||-4.1||-1.8|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||64.2||68.0||71.8||77.0||76.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.0||1.9||1.6||1.9||1.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.00||3.00||2.25||1.75||1.25|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||106.2||102.2||115.7||126.1||128.3|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-10.2||-10.6||-12.9||-10.8||-9.6|
|Current Account Balance (EUR bn)||-1.0||-1.3||-||-||-|
|Trade Balance (EUR billion)||-2.3||-1.9||-2.1||-2.1||-2.4|
|Exports (EUR billion)||1.5||1.7||1.8||1.7||1.8|
|Imports (EUR billion)||3.8||3.7||3.9||3.9||4.2|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||10.8||13.2||4.4||-4.9||2.2|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-0.5||-4.1||7.3||-1.4||8.6|
|International Reserves (EUR)||2.0||2.0||-||-||-|
5 years of Albania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Exchange Rate||106.9||-0.56 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Feb 22|
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