Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Available data suggests that the economic situation improved yet remained challenging in Q3, after the economy plunged in Q2, ravaged by lockdown measures at home and abroad. Although both merchandise exports and imports continued to shrink in annual terms in Q3, their pace of contraction softened considerably from the previous quarter. Similarly, tourist arrivals picked up during the summer season, declining at a more moderate pace in annual terms compared to the virtual halt seen during the spring months. Additionally, economic sentiment improved significantly in Q3, mainly driven by stronger business sentiment, although it remained below its long-term average. On the political front, on 20 October the government adopted the 2021 draft budget. It includes an over 7% increase in investments in a bid to support the recovery, and foresees a fiscal deficit of 6.5% of GDP.

Albania Economic Growth

The economy is seen dropping at a sharp pace this year, before rebounding in 2021 on the back of recovering domestic and external demand. That said, the unpredictable course of the pandemic and the country’s fragile fiscal position pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 6.0% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the panel sees the economy growing 4.7% in 2022.

Albania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,9554,1414,6385,2665,425
GDP per capita (EUR)3,4983,6874,0164,4394,735
GDP (USD bn)11.411.913.315.115.6
GDP (EUR bn)10.110.611.512.813.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.33.84.12.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.11.92.63.23.3
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.56.72.6-3.1
Unemployment Rate17.314.213.412.311.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-1.8-2.0-1.6-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)74.073.270.268.066.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.32.02.01.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.751.251.251.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)126.1128.3110.8108.1108.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-7.7-7.5-6.8-7.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.8-0.9-0.9-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.3-2.6-2.8-2.9-3.1
Exports (EUR billion)0.80.70.81.00.9
Imports (EUR billion)3.13.33.63.94.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.2-7.511.823.7-8.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.48.09.26.55.0
International Reserves (EUR)2.92.93.03.43.4

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Albania Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate108.6-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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