Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

Following a swifter GDP growth figure in Q4 2021, momentum was likely dampened somewhat at the outset of 2022 by a surge in Covid-19 cases. While the wave of infections subsided in early February and enabled the rollback of restrictions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably curtailed momentum towards the end of the quarter. In March, consumer confidence tumbled to its most pessimistic level since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, while inflation rose to its highest level in nearly 20 years, hinting at subdued private spending in Q1. Moreover, the war is expected to be taking a significant toll on the tourism sector—which accounts for around 25% of GDP—due to sharp drops in visitors from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. On a positive note, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development recently agreed to EUR 20 million in loans for agribusiness and tourism companies.

Albania Economic Growth

GDP growth is set to ease after 2021’s strong rebound, as the favorable base effect reduces and higher inflation chips away at purchasing power. That said, government support measures should provide some cushion to private spending, although heightened uncertainty stemming from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 3.1% in 2022, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees the economy growing 3.4%.

Albania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,9554,1414,6385,2665,425
GDP per capita (EUR)3,4983,6874,0164,4394,735
GDP (USD bn)11.411.913.315.115.6
GDP (EUR bn)10.110.611.512.813.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.33.84.12.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.11.92.63.23.3
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.56.72.6-3.1
Unemployment Rate17.314.213.412.311.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-1.8-2.0-1.6-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)74.073.270.268.066.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.32.02.01.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.751.251.251.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)126.1128.3110.8108.1108.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-7.7-7.5-6.8-7.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.8-0.9-0.9-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.3-2.6-2.8-2.9-3.1
Exports (EUR billion)0.80.70.81.00.9
Imports (EUR billion)3.13.33.63.94.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.2-7.511.823.7-8.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.48.09.26.55.0
International Reserves (EUR)2.92.93.03.43.4

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Albania Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate108.6-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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