Albania Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

The economy powered ahead in Q3, propelled by strong electricity generation due to favorable weather. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption and fixed investment were robust, with the former boosted by lower unemployment. Solid momentum was likely maintained in Q4, with brisk annual merchandise export growth in October and November. On the political front, the government recently announced an over-8% increase in the minimum wage for 2019, while the PM reshuffled his cabinet in response to student protests.

Albania Economic Growth

Going forward, growth should be solid thanks to stronger private consumption, fixed investment and exports. An economic slowdown in the EU and potential drought—which would dampen domestic electricity production—are downside risks. Our panel expects growth of 3.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2020.

Albania Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
GDP per capita (USD)	4,298	4,714	3,953	4,133	4,537
GDP per capita (EUR)	3,307	3,444	3,562	3,735	4,025
GDP (USD bn)	12.4	13.6	11.4	11.9	13.0
GDP (EUR bn)	9.6	9.9	10.3	10.7	11.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	1.0	1.8	2.2	3.4	3.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)	1.8	2.8	0.9	2.6	2.9
Investment (annual variation in %)	-2.0	-4.6	3.5	3.3	7.7
Unemployment Rate	17.6	18.0	17.3	14.2	13.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-5.0	-5.2	-4.1	-1.8	-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	65.6	70.1	72.7	72.3	70.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.9	1.6	1.9	1.3	2.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.00	2.25	1.75	1.25	1.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	102.2	115.7	126.1	128.3	110.8
Current Account (% of GDP)	-9.3	-10.8	-8.6	-7.6	-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.9	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-2.0	-2.2	-2.3	-2.6	-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)	1.1	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.8
Imports (EUR billion)	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.3	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	21.8	-12.7	-17.2	-7.5	11.8
Imports (annual variation in %)	-2.3	3.9	-2.4	8.0	9.2
International Reserves (EUR)	2.0	2.2	2.9	2.9	3.0

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Albania Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	108.6	-0.56 %	Jan 30
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 30

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Albania Economic Outlook

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