Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
A new survey by FocusEconomics released Tuesday shows that the majority of the 22 international and local macroeconomic experts polled believe that uncertainty surrounding the elections in France is not affecting the economy as a Le Pen defeat is likely.
Looking forward, economists from leading institutions around the world think that Emmanuel Macron, leader of bipartisan movement On the Move! (En Marche!), has the best economic plan with 55% of survey respondents in agreement, followed by Republicans party (Les Républicains) candidate François Fillon with 40%. None of the economists believe that Le Pen has the best economic plan.
Economists’ views on the most important reform measures the country has to implement center around liberalization of the labor market, slashing public spending, cutting the size of the bloated public sector, reducing red tape and reforming the country’s pension system and tax regime. It remains unclear whether the new president will succeed in implementing his or her reform agenda.
Regarding whether France’s relationship with the EU will change following the elections, “The majority of analysts envisage a ‘business as usual’ approach with the single-currency bloc in the case of a non-Le Pen presidency,” says Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, France Economist at FocusEconomics.
“Under a Macron or Fillon presidency, France is set to retain its prominent role as a historical leader of EU integration and more political and economic integration is expected. Quick fiscal consolidation will not be a priority, but the new government is expected to respect the Stability and Growth Pact target of a budget deficit under 3.0% of GDP.”
Participants see the battle for president being waged chiefly between right-wing Marine Le Pen, centrist Emmanuel Macron and the rather more discredited center-right candidate François Fillon. However, a parliamentary majority will be difficult for the president-elect to obtain, clouding the outlook for policy making in France.
June’s legislative elections are equally important since they largely determine the amount of power and autonomy the president will hold during his tenure. 73% of the analysts surveyed expect there to be cohabitation given the unprecedented configuration of this year’s presidential election.
“In the unlikely case of a Le Pen presidency, panelists perceive her as being unable to fulfill all of her campaign promises as her party will fall short of winning a majority in the June elections, and they have downplayed the economic risks as a result,” says Pourcelot.
The FocusEconomics France Elections Survey, released Tuesday, was conducted 8 to 15 March among chief economists and senior economists from leading international and local economic institutions worldwide.
5-year economic forecasts on 30+ economic indicators for 127 countries & 33 commodities.
Date: March 29, 2017
TagsAfrica Consensus Forecast Euro Area Argentina India Investment Agricultural Commodities Unemployment rate Tunisia precious metals European Union United Kingdom Gold France Spain Industrial Metals Commodities Latin America Asia USA Sub-Saharan Africa Banking Sector oil prices Company News G7 IMF Iran Ukraine Greece Panelists Emerging Markets Japan Commodities Italy Base Metals Commodities Colombia Exchange Rate Nordic Economies OPEC Energy Commodities Fed Australia Forex Venezuela Eastern Europe Portugal Inflation Infographic Turkey Russia UK Mexico Major Economies Brexit Latin America Euro Area NAFTA Housing Market Trade Oil South Africa China Vietnam Economic Growth (GDP) Brazil Precious Metals Commodities NAFTA Germany Canada MENA
Will Egypt’s economic recovery continue into 2018 or fall flat? Our team of analysts weighs in: https://t.co/DyNJa3s1jR
3 minutes ago
33 minutes ago
1 hour ago
2 hours ago
19 hours ago
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- 2017 & 2018 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit