Venezuela Economic Outlook
January 19, 2016The newly-elected National Assembly took office on 5 January. Even though the political opposition secured a two-thirds majority, which enables the opposition to push for sweeping reforms, the prospects of political and economic change are uncertain. Prior to the opposition-controlled Assembly being sworn in, the government approved numerous bills that undermine the Assembly’s power to push for reform or tackle the current economic crisis. Meanwhile, on 15 January, President Nicolás Maduro declared a 60-day economic state of emergency that allows him to rule by decree. The measure was announced hours before delivering the first State of the Nation address to the Assembly in 17 years in which he declared that inflation in September soared to 141.5% and GDP contracted by 7.1% in Q3 2015 compared to the previous year. The decree grants the President sweeping power to combat shortages of goods and ballooning inflation.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||496.5 %||Jan 19|
|Exchange Rate||6.30||0.0 %||Feb 05|
|Stock Market||14,373||-2.03 %||Feb 05|
Venezuela Economic Growth
January 19, 2016Despite the change in Venezuela’s National Assembly, the country’s growth prospects are grim. A shrinking economy, runaway inflation and low oil prices are likely to maintain the economy in a deep recession. Economic analysts who took part in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel foresee a 4.8% contraction in GDP for 2016, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees GDP rising 0.5%.
Venezuela Economic News
January 21, 2016
The peaceful discourse employed by President Nicolás Maduro shortly after the 6 December legislative elections, which surprised analysts and the opposition alike, didn’t last long.
January 19, 2016
Annual car sales fell 72.1% over the same month of the previous year and totaled 1,470 units in December, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela).
January 18, 2016
In December, the average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil dropped 17.0% over the previous month, falling from USD 36.5 per barrel in November to USD 30.3 per barrel in December, the lowest price on record.
January 15, 2016
Although no official GDP data has been released for 2014 or 2015 and there is no official inflation data for last year, the available evidence continues to point to a deepening economic crisis.
December 11, 2015
Annual car sales fell 53.6% over the same month last year and totaled 1,296 units in November, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela).