Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

July 14, 2015

Venezuelans will head to the polls for legislative elections on 6 December against a backdrop of an economic freefall. Despite a lack of official data, recent evidence suggests that the country’s economic crisis continues to worsen. The bolivar traded in the parallel market fell past 600 VEF per USD in July and dollar shortages combined with soaring inflation have led to large-scale protests and strikes among workers. The government’s popularity has fallen notably in tandem with the economy and early polls show that the fragmented opposition has a chance at winning a majority or two-thirds supermajority in congress. The latter would give the opposition broad powers, including the ability to initiate constitutional reforms and approve certain laws.

Venezuela Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)28.629.129.530.030.5
GDP per capita (USD)8,33710,85912,88512,401-  
GDP (USD bn)239316380372-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.54.25.61.3-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-0.57.612.3-1.9-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.94.07.04.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.34.423.3-9.0-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-3.43.81.8-0.3-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-11.94.711.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate8.58.27.87.57.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.6-4.0-4.9-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.125.127.631.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)19.150.661.069.764.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.227.620.156.268.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)28.226.121.140.662.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)26.820.816.652.4-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.6414.5014.5014.7414.84
Stock Market (annual variation in %)18.679.130348041.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.304.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.264.304.306.096.30
Current Account (% of GDP)3.77.72.91.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.824.411.05.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)27.246.038.035.9-  
Exports (USD billion)65.792.897.389.0-  
Imports (USD billion)38.546.859.353.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.141.24.9-8.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.221.526.8-10.6-  
International Reserves (USD)29.529.929.921.522.1
External Debt (% of GDP)40.735.131.334.3-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.50-6.00 %Jun 19
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Jul 29
Stock Market15,473-0.41 %Jul 29

Venezuela Economic Growth

July 14, 2015

Venezuela’s outlook for 2015 remains grim. Recession, skyrocketing inflation and low oil prices are expected to fuel the economy’s largest contraction in over a decade. Moreover, a large amount of uncertainty remains over the upcoming elections and a number of analysts are skeptical that they will be conducted fairly. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see a 6.1% contraction in GDP for 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP falling 2.0%.

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