Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

August 11, 2015

Venezuela’s data drought continues. The Central Bank still has not released GDP figures for Q4 2014 or inflation data since December, amplifying speculation that the country’s economic decline has worsened this year. Recent evidence suggests that inflation continued to soar in June and the bolivar traded in the parallel market is rapidly approaching 700 VEF per USD amid increasing dollar shortages. Against this backdrop, the country is gearing up for congressional elections in December of this year. The government’s popularity has fallen notably in tandem with the economy and early polls show that the fragmented opposition has a chance at winning a majority in congress. However, skepticism over how credibly the upcoming elections will be conducted has increased in the past month. In July, members of the opposition, including leader María Machado, were banned from running in the election, a move that resulted in international criticism and fueled domestic protests against the government.

Venezuela Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)28.629.129.530.030.5
GDP per capita (USD)8,33710,85912,88512,401-  
GDP (USD bn)239316380372-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.54.25.61.3-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-0.57.612.3-1.9-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.94.07.04.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.34.423.3-9.0-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-3.43.81.8-0.3-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-11.94.711.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate8.58.27.87.57.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.6-4.0-4.9-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.125.127.631.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)19.150.661.069.764.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.227.620.156.268.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)28.226.121.140.662.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)26.820.816.652.4-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.6414.5014.5014.7414.84
Stock Market (annual variation in %)18.679.130348041.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.304.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.264.304.306.096.30
Current Account (% of GDP)3.77.72.91.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.824.411.05.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)27.246.038.035.9-  
Exports (USD billion)65.792.897.389.0-  
Imports (USD billion)38.546.859.353.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.141.24.9-8.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.221.526.8-10.6-  
International Reserves (USD)29.529.929.921.522.1
External Debt (% of GDP)40.735.131.334.3-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.50186.8 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Aug 25
Stock Market14,876-0.32 %Aug 25

Venezuela Economic Growth

August 11, 2015

Venezuela’s prospects are bleak. Falling economic activity combined with skyrocketing inflation and low oil prices are expected to fuel the economy’s largest contraction in over a decade. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see a 6.3% contraction in GDP for 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees GDP falling 2.0%.

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