Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

July 11, 2017

The country is staring into an abyss as widespread protests on an almost daily basis rage on. Over 70 people have been left dead and the sense that anarchy may ensue is becoming palpable in the streets. Although the first cracks in the government are starting to show, Maduro remains adamant about his hold on to power and is has been using the resources at his disposal to do so, even at the detriment of the economy. The structural imbalances that plague the country persist and economic activity has collapsed as a result. The government raised the minimum salary by 30% as a palliative measure in the face of astonishingly-high inflation and the most recent oil industry data is disappointing. Oil prices declined to the lowest level since November in June and stifled hopes that the extended oil output cut agreement between oil producing countries would fill Venezuela’s depleted state coffers.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)28.929.429.830.230.6
GDP per capita (USD)10,90712,95212,38115,929-  
GDP (USD bn)316380369481-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-12.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.328.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)30.030.021.022.016.0
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.928.2-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Jul 26
Stock Market134,5840.0 %Jul 26

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Venezuela Economic Growth

July 11, 2017

The deep recession is expected to continue as structural problems are unlikely to be addressed anytime soon as the regime focuses its efforts on survival. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 6.5% in 2017, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 1.9%.

Venezuela Economic News

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