Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

March 14, 2017

The collapse in oil prices and chronic economic mismanagement by the ruling party has sent the economy into a tailspin and has plunged the country into an unprecedented political, economic and humanitarian crisis. While economic conditions are set to improve after what was likely the largest contraction in the world in 2016, the country is nonetheless set to remain deep in recession. Venezuelan oil prices have stabilized below the USD 50.0 benchmark but remain too low to revive economic activity. This spells bad news since the country’s debt repayment schedule is fast approaching and an almost USD 3.0 billion loan is due in April, with additional multibillion loan repayments due in the remainder of the year. With international reserves under USD 11.0 billion and a strong repayment commitment by the socialist government, economic hardship is set to worsen and possibly fuel further social unrest.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Mar 28
Stock Market41,0783.68 %Mar 28

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Venezuela Economic Growth

March 14, 2017

While the government is betting on higher oil prices as an exit to the crisis, the economy will remain in an abysmal state without structural reforms such as price control removal, exchange rate unification and an improvement in the investment climate. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 4.2% in 2017, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 0.8%.

Venezuela Economic News

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