Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

April 21, 2015

The economy entered recession in 2014, after recording three consecutive contractions, from Q1 to Q3. Adding to Venezuela’s woes, inflation skyrocketed last year. The sharp drop in the price for oil has put the government’s finances under pressure as oil revenues represent the vast majority of Venezuela’s dollar income. Moreover, increasing cash shortages are escalating Venezuela’s economic crisis. In response, on 10 April, the government announced additional tightening of capital controls, reducing the amount of foreign exchange available to Venezuelan travelers from USD 2,500 to USD 700.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-3.6-4.0-4.9-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.91.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.05.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.035.9
Exports (USD billion)57.665.792.897.389.0
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.353.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-8.6
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-10.6
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.334.3

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5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.800.0 %Apr 23
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Apr 23
Stock Market5,6920.04 %Apr 23

Venezuela Economic Growth

April 21, 2015

Venezuela’s outlook for 2015 is worsening quickly. The economy remains in a downward spiral amid recession, elevated inflation and a severe credit crunch. Against this backdrop, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists shaved off 0.6 percentage points from last month’s projection and now see a 5.5% contraction in GDP for 2015. For 2016, the panel sees GDP falling 1.2%.

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Venezuela Economic News

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