Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

August 9, 2016

Years of economic mismanagement and the slump in oil prices have pushed Venezuela into a severe crisis, as confirmed by the latest developments in the oil-rich country. In June, oil output dropped to a new multi-year low and the trend looks irreversible in the short term. A short-lived rally in oil prices came to an end in July, raising the alarm ahead of multibillion dollar debt payments due this year and next. Furthermore, a potential unification of the exchange rate system hangs on a thread after President Nicolás Maduro sacked the pro-reformist minister who strove to liberalize the country’s currency controls and unify the exchange rate systems. Lastly, on the political front, the standoff between the government and the opposition intensified after the government-controlled Supreme Court ruled that all actions by the opposition-controlled Legislature since late July are null and void.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Jul 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Aug 03
Stock Market12,374-0.43 %Aug 03

Venezuela Economic Growth

August 9, 2016

The country’s growth prospects are bleak. Runaway inflation and structural macroeconomic imbalances will keep the economy mired in a deep recession this year and next. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 9.2% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees GDP falling 2.5%.

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