Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

September 13, 2016

Venezuela’s economy continues to crumble, reflecting years of economic malpractice and heightened vulnerability due to weaknesses in the dominant oil sector. Venezuelan oil production fell to a multi-year low in August, due to operational challenges over long-lasting underinvestment and suppliers scaling back their activity over delayed payments. The combination of depressed prices and record-low oil production raised the alarm ahead of multibillion dollar debt payments due this year and next. Car sales contracted a sharp 83.4% annually in August, highlighting the adverse impact of distorting currency controls and a shortage of goods on consumption. The political situation has continued to worsen as the ongoing standoff between the ruling party and the opposition recently intensified. In early September, supporters of the opposition held massive protests in Caracas to increase pressure on the government to approve a recall vote against President Nicolás Maduro.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Sep 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Sep 23
Stock Market12,504-0.01 %Sep 23

Venezuela Economic Growth

September 13, 2016

Venezuela’s economy has been contracting since 2014 and will not return to growth anytime soon, dragged down by severe structural weaknesses and rampant inflation. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 9.7% this year, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees GDP decreasing 3.0%.

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