Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

March 17, 2015

The Venezuelan economy entered recession in 2014, having recorded three consecutive contractions from Q1 to Q3. Meanwhile, the government’s finances are under pressure due to the sharp drop in the price for oil, which represents the vast majority of Venezuela’s dollar income. In an effort to ease dollar shortages and extensive black market activity, the government launched an overhaul of the exchange rate system on 12 February known as “Simadi”. However, little has changed since the new regime and the bolivar traded in the parallel market has tumbled since its introduction.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-3.6-4.0-4.9-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.91.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.05.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.035.9
Exports (USD billion)57.665.792.897.389.0
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.353.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-8.6
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-10.6
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.334.3

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.800.0 %Mar 23
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Mar 26
Stock Market5,005-0.44 %Mar 26

Venezuela Economic Growth

March 17, 2015

Venezuela’s outlook for 2015 is grim. The country is facing recession, skyrocketing inflation and a severe credit crunch. Against this backdrop, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists shaved off 0.5 percentage points from last month’s projection and now see a 4.9% contraction in GDP for 2015. For 2016, the panel sees GDP falling 0.1%.

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