Venezuela

Venezuela Economic Outlook

September 16, 2014

President Nicolas Maduro announced his long-waited “economic shake-up” on 3 September, which comprised a remarkable cabinet reshuffle, but failed to deliver the country’s much-needed economic reforms. The powerful Rafael Ramirez was removed as Economy Vice President, Minister of Petroleum and Mining, and President of Venezuela’s state oil company. Instead, he was appointed Foreign Minister. Ramirez vowed to merge the three official exchange rates and his de facto demotion triggered concerns that this could represent a setback in overhauling Venezuela’s exchange rate system. In addition, the parallel bolivar weakened sharply in recent weeks, mainly due to a severe shortage of U.S. dollars and an alleged reduction of dollar supply in the secondary markets.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-3.6-4.0-4.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.0-  
Exports (USD billion)57.665.892.897.3-  
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-  
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.3-  

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5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.90.29 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Sep 17
Stock Market2,767-2.20 %Sep 17

Venezuela Economic Growth

September 16, 2014

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP falling 2.5% in 2014, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists expect GDP to expand 0.7% in 2015.

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