Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

May 16, 2017

The government has shed all remaining pseudo-democratic appearances in a matter of weeks as it attempts to hold onto power at all costs. The decision to redraft the current Constitution, which was written by the ruling party in 1999, has added more fuel to the fire. The opposition has staged almost daily protests that have been the largest in years and have left over 40 dead. As the country slides into chaos, a resolution to the political and economic crisis has become increasingly unlikely and the economic outlook is extremely uncertain. Although the economy is in freefall and oil prices remain low, the country paid over USD 2.5 billion to bondholders in another show of its unremitting commitment to repaying its creditors. The government shows no intentions of easing import restrictions to quell social discontent to avoid asset seizures in the event of a default.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)28.929.429.830.230.6
GDP per capita (USD)10,90712,95212,38115,929-  
GDP (USD bn)316380369481-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-12.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.328.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)30.030.021.022.016.0
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.928.2-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %May 24
Stock Market72,6900.06 %May 24

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Venezuela Economic Growth

May 16, 2017

The country is expected to remain deep in recession since the structural problems afflicting the country are unlikely to be addressed as the political crisis escalates. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 5.2% in 2017, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 1.1%.

Venezuela Economic News

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