Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

February 17, 2015

Venezuela’s economy recorded its third consecutive contraction in Q3 2014, thus confirming the country’s economic decline. On 12 February, the government launched an overhaul of the exchange rate system which includes a new mechanism called Simadi that allows for legal trading of the bolivar. Venezuelan authorities are hoping that Simadi will help ease dollar shortages and counteract widespread black market activity in the country. The sharp fall in oil prices has put pressure on government finances and resulted in large goods shortages as oil is the main source of Venezuela’s dollar income.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-3.6-4.0-4.9-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.91.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.05.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.035.9
Exports (USD billion)57.665.792.897.389.0
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.353.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-8.6
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-10.6
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.334.3

Sample Report

5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.800.0 %Feb 23
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Feb 27
Stock Market3,6523.40 %Feb 27

Venezuela Economic Growth

February 17, 2015

Recession, skyrocketing inflation and falling oil prices are causing Venezuela’s outlook for 2015 to deteriorate rapidly. Against this backdrop, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists shaved off 0.6 percentage points from last month’s projection and now see a 4.4% contraction in GDP for 2015. For 2016, the panel sees GDP recovering somewhat and expanding 0.3%.

Sample Report

See all the data and analysis available in each of our Regional and Country reports.

Download

Venezuela Economic News

Search form