Venezuela

Venezuela Economic Outlook

December 9, 2014

The Venezuelan economy remains in the doldrums. The free fall of the bolivar accelerated in November due to strong purchases of U.S. dollars by Venezuelans in an attempt to shield themselves against skyrocketing inflation. Although President Nicolás Maduro announced that the government will revise the exchange rate mechanism, analysts are skeptical about the scope of the initiative and how successful it will actually be. Moreover, the sharp decline in oil prices observed in recent weeks is expected to put additional pressure on the country’s battered finances. According to some analysts, the country loses USD 700 million a year for every USD 1 decline in oil prices. In November, the government transferred about USD 4.0 billion to the Central Bank’s coffers in order to shore up the country’s shrinking reserves, which hit an 11-year low in October.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-3.6-4.0-4.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.0-  
Exports (USD billion)57.665.892.897.3-  
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-  
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.3-  

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5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.80.0 %Oct 23
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Dec 04
Stock Market2,9730.60 %Dec 04

Venezuela Economic Growth

December 9, 2014

The economic climate is deteriorating sharply because of skyrocketing inflation, heterodox and interventionist policies, and falling oil prices. Against this backdrop, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists shaved off 1.2 percentage points from last month’s projection and they now expect a 2.0% drop for 2015. For this year, the panel sees GDP falling 3.3%.

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