Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

April 11, 2017

Venezuela was thrown into uncharted political territory after the government-controlled Supreme Court backtracked on its decision to suspend the opposition-controlled National Assembly. The unprecedented ruling opens a new chapter in the long and bitter standoff between both factions and has exposed the first visible cracks in the ruling party. It is extremely uncertain how future events will play out and whether the government will be able to quell growing domestic and international pressure amid a catastrophic economic scenario. Oil prices in March declined to pre-OPEC deal lows, wiping out hopes for an improvement in public finances and risking recourse to already depleted international reserves to comply with looming bond payments. Financial markets have also experienced turbulence, with bond prices tumbling and credit default swaps increasing as an almost USD 3.0 billion payment is due in mid-April.

Venezuela Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)29.429.830.230.6-  
GDP per capita (USD)12,95212,38115,929-  -  
GDP (USD bn)380369481-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.61.3-3.9-5.7-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)12.3-1.9-8.8-10.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.04.7-3.4-7.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)23.3-9.0-16.9-17.6-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.8-0.3-7.2-5.4-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.87.57.06.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-1.9-12.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.631.328.5-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)61.069.764.0101-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)20.156.268.5181-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)21.140.662.2122-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.652.4-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.7414.8414.59-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)30348041.0278-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.306.306.306.30-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.306.096.306.30-  
Current Account (% of GDP)0.71.20.7-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.64.63.6-18.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)31.931.627.2-  -  
Exports (USD billion)88.888.874.7-  -  
Imports (USD billion)57.257.247.5-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.30.0-15.8-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.0-16.9-  -  
International Reserves (USD)30.021.022.016.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)34.435.928.2-  -  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Apr 06
Stock Market45,8140.70 %Apr 06

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Venezuela Economic Growth

April 11, 2017

The recent decline in oil prices has dealt a huge blow to the government’s hope of alleviating the crisis. The country is expected to remain deep in recession since the structural problems afflicting the country are unlikely to be addressed. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 4.4% in 2017, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 1.0%.

Venezuela Economic News

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