Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

July 12, 2016

Years of economic mismanagement and the slump in oil prices have pushed Venezuela into a severe crisis. Recent reports from the government and OPEC confirm that the country’s economic woes continue to mount. Revenues from state-owned oil company PDVSA plunged 41% in 2015 and, according to OPEC, oil production dropped to a multi-year low in May. Diminished production and dwindling earnings are raising concerns over both how the oil-dependent country will meet its over USD 8.0 billion international debt obligation and alleviate the country’s structural imbalances. With the next debt installment due in August, the political and economic situation in the oil-rich country is becoming critical. In June, the non-official and Dicom exchange rates both depreciated sharply and street violence became more prevalent amid a widespread scarcity of goods. International mediation has failed to resolve the political impasse and the government has stepped up its vehement rhetoric against the opposition.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Jul 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Jul 22
Stock Market12,483-0.12 %Jul 22

Venezuela Economic Growth

July 12, 2016

The country’s growth prospects are bleak. Runaway inflation and structural macroeconomic imbalances will keep the economy mired in a deep recession this year and next. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 9.0% this year, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees GDP falling 2.3%.

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