Venezuela

Venezuela Economic Outlook

November 11, 2014

Although no official GDP data have been released this year, economists believe that the country is deeply mired in recession. The steep decline in oil prices has added further pressure on the economy. Oil accounts for about 95% of Venezuelan exports and for more than half of public sector revenues. The budget for 2015 assumes a “conservative” oil price of USD 60 per barrel and economic growth of 3.0%; most analysts consider this growth assumption too optimistic.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-3.6-4.0-4.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.0-  
Exports (USD billion)57.665.892.897.3-  
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-  
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.3-  

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.80.0 %Oct 23
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Nov 17
Stock Market2,909-0.06 %Nov 17

Venezuela Economic Growth

November 11, 2014

The outlook for the country continues to worsen. The mix of severe U.S. dollar shortages, soaring inflation, erratic economic policies and falling oil prices have prompted panelists to predict a contraction for 2015 as well. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to drop 0.8% in 2015, which contrasts the 0.2% growth projected last month. For this year, the panel sees GDP falling 3.0%.

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