Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

June 13, 2017

The country is sliding into chaos as the political crisis enters its third month without an end in sight. The collapsed economy has taken a back seat to politics as the government mobilizes all resources to form a super-body known as a constituent assembly, in what is seen as the ultimate power grab. Economic activity has been brought to a near-standstill and the latest indicators show a continuous economic deterioration. The differential between the official and non-official exchange rates is still abysmal despite an over 60% devaluation in May, the latter of which will contribute to stoking already astronomically-high inflation. The liquidity crunch the government is facing became evident after it sold some of its holdings of the state oil company’s debt at a huge discount to meet short-term financing needs. The government received USD 865 million selling bonds worth USD 2.8 billion on its books to Goldman Sachs, a move widely criticized for providing a lifeline to the increasingly authoritarian regime at the cost of increasing the government’s medium-term debt burden.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)28.929.429.830.230.6
GDP per capita (USD)10,90712,95212,38115,929-  
GDP (USD bn)316380369481-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-12.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.328.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)30.030.021.022.016.0
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.928.2-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Jun 16
Stock Market118,9061.48 %Jun 16

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Venezuela Economic Growth

June 13, 2017

The country is expected to remain deep in recession since the structural problems afflicting the country are unlikely to be addressed anytime soon as the regime focuses its efforts on survival. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 5.8% in 2017, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 1.5%.

Venezuela Economic News

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