Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

December 5, 2016

The slump in commodity prices has sent the Venezuelan economy into a tailspin. The latest data point to a growing economic, social and political crisis as the economy is in freefall. While oil-producing states have welcomed the outcome of the 30 November meeting to cut output for the first time since 2008, the news does not offer much hope for the South American country against a backdrop of declining oil output and little chance that prices will return to the highs reached during the commodity super cycle. The state-owned oil enterprise was declared in technical default after failing to meet bond payments in November. The situation on the ground is deteriorating rapidly as the bolivar traded in the parallel market is devaluating sharply. Solutions to Venezuela’s manifold problems are elusive as the Vatican-mediated talks have failed to break the political impasse.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Oct 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Dec 06
Stock Market36,430-0.89 %Dec 06

Venezuela Economic Growth

December 5, 2016

Venezuela’s economy has been contracting since 2014 and is not expected to grow anytime soon. Structural weaknesses in the economy exacerbated by policy mismanagement have been laid bare by the collapse in oil prices and output. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 10.2% in 2016 and 3.7% in 2017, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Venezuela Economic News

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