Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

January 17, 2017

The government has had to postpone its surprise decision in December to remove all 100 VEF bills from circulation until at least 20 January, after the announcement resulted in chaos, with widespread looting and rioting reported across the country. The bills make up the bulk of the country’s money supply and the radical measure forms part of the government’s attempts to mend the crisis-stricken economy in the absence of much-needed reforms. President Nicolás Maduro made important changes to his cabinet in January, including a reshuffling in the oil and some economic ministries, though no significant policy change is expected. The most high-profile change was the appointment of a new vice president, which analysts interpret as an attempt to consolidate hard-line chavistas at the helm ahead of a possible recall referendum and presidential elections next year.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Oct 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Jan 20
Stock Market27,960-6.54 %Jan 20

Venezuela Economic Growth

January 17, 2017

Venezuela’s economy has been contracting since 2014 and is not expected to grow this year or next. The collapse in oil prices and output have laid bare structural weaknesses in the economy, which have been exacerbated by unsound economic policies. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 4.1% in 2017, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 0.7%.

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