Venezuela

Venezuela Economic Outlook

October 14, 2014

The bolivar traded in the parallel market fell to an all-time low in early October, mainly on the back of a shortage of U.S. dollars and rising demand for the greenback to shield against skyrocketing inflation. Analysts noted that the recent cash crunch also reflected the government’s need to make USD 9.2 billion in debt payments before the end of the year. Despite rumors that the country could not meet its international obligations due to its low level of official liquid reserves, the ample cash reserves allocated outside of official channels give the government leeway to service its debt.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-3.6-4.0-4.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.0-  
Exports (USD billion)57.665.892.897.3-  
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-  
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.3-  

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5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.80.0 %Oct 23
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Oct 23
Stock Market3,058-0.59 %Oct 23

Venezuela Economic Growth

October 14, 2014

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP falling 2.6% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists expect GDP to expand 0.2% in 2015.

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