Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

June 14, 2016

Years of economic mismanagement and the slump in oil prices have pushed the country into a severe crisis. While oil prices have been slowly recovering for the past months and hit their highest level since October in May, oil prices remain too low to shore up public finances or mend the economy. In May, car sales tallied another sharp contraction while the Dicom exchange rate depreciated sharply. To honor its debt commitment, the government has liquidated additional gold reserves and reached a debt agreement with China that will exacerbate shortages of consumer goods by limiting dollar supply used for imports buying. The dire situation has intensified street protests and looting as well as the ongoing political standoff. International actors have stepped in to diffuse the growing crisis, but prospects of a mediated solution are elusive.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %May 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Jun 30
Stock Market12,8510.15 %Jun 30

Venezuela Economic Growth

June 14, 2016

The country’s growth prospects remain bleak. Runaway inflation and structural macroeconomic imbalances are likely to keep the economy mired in a deep recession this year and next. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 8.3% this year, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees GDP dropping 2.2%.

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