Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

May 17, 2016

The Venezuelan economy is set to experience another difficult year in 2016 due to low commodity prices and structural macroeconomic imbalances. The economy has taken a turn for the worse since President Nicolás Maduro, in an effort to tackle an ongoing energy crisis, ordered the working week for civil servants to be shortened to two days per week and announced daily power cuts. The measures, which will constrain economic activity even further, have unleashed a wave of looting and rioting across the country. Meanwhile, the political opposition has stepped up their effort to end the president’s term by using all the legal mechanisms at their disposal. The government has responded by imposing numerous hurdles and declaring a state of emergency to thwart any impeachment attempt.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %May 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %May 25
Stock Market15,3140.51 %May 25

Venezuela Economic Growth

May 17, 2016

The country’s growth prospects remain bleak; runaway inflation and a dysfunctional retail sector are likely to keep the economy mired in a deep recession this year. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 7.8% this year, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees GDP dropping 1.5%.

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