Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

January 19, 2016

The newly-elected National Assembly took office on 5 January. Even though the political opposition secured a two-thirds majority, which enables the opposition to push for sweeping reforms, the prospects of political and economic change are uncertain. Prior to the opposition-controlled Assembly being sworn in, the government approved numerous bills that undermine the Assembly’s power to push for reform or tackle the current economic crisis. Meanwhile, on 15 January, President Nicolás Maduro declared a 60-day economic state of emergency that allows him to rule by decree. The measure was announced hours before delivering the first State of the Nation address to the Assembly in 17 years in which he declared that inflation in September soared to 141.5% and GDP contracted by 7.1% in Q3 2015 compared to the previous year. The decree grants the President sweeping power to combat shortages of goods and ballooning inflation.

Venezuela Economy Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)28.629.129.530.030.5
GDP per capita (USD)8,33710,85912,88512,401-  
GDP (USD bn)239316380372-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.54.25.61.3-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-0.57.612.3-1.9-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.94.07.04.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.34.423.3-9.0-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-3.43.81.8-0.3-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-11.94.711.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate8.58.27.87.57.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.6-4.0-4.9-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.125.127.631.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)19.150.661.069.764.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.227.620.156.268.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)28.226.121.140.662.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)26.820.816.652.4-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.6414.5014.5014.7414.84
Stock Market (annual variation in %)18.679.130348041.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.304.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.264.304.306.096.30
Current Account (% of GDP)3.77.72.91.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.824.411.05.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)27.246.038.035.9-  
Exports (USD billion)65.792.897.389.0-  
Imports (USD billion)38.546.859.353.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.141.24.9-8.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.221.526.8-10.6-  
International Reserves (USD)29.529.929.921.522.1
External Debt (% of GDP)40.735.131.334.3-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.50496.5 %Jan 19
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Feb 05
Stock Market14,373-2.03 %Feb 05

Venezuela Economic Growth

January 19, 2016

Despite the change in Venezuela’s National Assembly, the country’s growth prospects are grim. A shrinking economy, runaway inflation and low oil prices are likely to maintain the economy in a deep recession. Economic analysts who took part in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel foresee a 4.8% contraction in GDP for 2016, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees GDP rising 0.5%.

Venezuela Economic News

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