Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

April 19, 2016

President Nicolás Maduro shortened the working week for public employees to four days in an effort to limit energy consumption amid widespread energy blackouts. The opposition argues that the measure, which will last until May, will exacerbate shortages of consumer goods and constrain economic activity further, as Venezuela slides ever deeper into the worst economic crisis in its history. In March, car sales tallied their largest contraction on record and the bolivar traded at a new record low in the parallel market. Even though oil prices recovered in March, oil-producing states failed to reach an agreement on 17 April to freeze output. The lack of consensus among oil-producing states will keep prices subdued and put additional pressure on Venezuela’s public finances ahead of international debt payments due this year.

Venezuela Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)29.129.530.030.530.9
GDP per capita (USD)10,85912,88512,40118,601-  
GDP (USD bn)316380372567-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.61.3-3.9-5.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.612.3-1.9-8.8-10.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.07.04.7-3.4-7.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.423.3-9.0-16.9-17.6
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)3.81.8-0.3-7.2-5.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.711.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate8.27.87.57.06.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-1.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.127.631.021.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)50.661.069.764.0101
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.620.156.268.5181
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)26.121.140.662.2122
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)20.816.652.4-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.5014.7414.8414.59
Stock Market (annual variation in %)79.130348041.0278
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.306.306.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.304.306.096.306.30
Current Account (% of GDP)5.20.71.20.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16.32.64.63.6-18.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)41.231.931.627.2-  
Exports (USD billion)93.788.888.874.7-  
Imports (USD billion)52.657.257.247.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)40.2-5.30.0-15.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)26.08.80.0-16.9-  
International Reserves (USD)29.929.921.522.116.4
External Debt (% of GDP)37.534.435.624.0-  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Feb 19
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %May 02
Stock Market15,618-0.34 %May 02

Venezuela Economic Growth

April 19, 2016

The country’s growth prospects remain bleak as runaway inflation and a dysfunctional retail sector are likely to keep the economy mired in a deep recession this year. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 7.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees GDP dropping 1.1%.

Venezuela Economic News

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