Venezuela

Venezuela Economic Outlook

January 20, 2015

The Venezuelan economy entered in recession in 2014. According to data published by the Central Bank, GDP contracted 4.8% in Q1, 4.9% in Q2 and 2.3% in Q3. These were the sharpest contractions in GDP that have been recorded since 2009. In an attempt to cut global oil supply and secure financial aid, President Nicolás Maduro paid a visit to some members of OPEC and allied countries. While Maduro failed to secure a reduction in oil production, he announced that Venezuela would receive financial support from China, Qatar and Russia. Meanwhile, in a press conference held on 30 December, Maduro said that the government would reform the current exchange rate system sometime this year. The announcement has created expectations that the official bolivar could be devaluated by the end of January.

Venezuela Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)28.228.629.129.530.0
GDP per capita (USD)11,6738,33710,85912,88512,401
GDP (USD bn)329.0238.7315.7380.3371.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-3.2-1.54.25.61.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-7.7-0.57.612.3-1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.9-1.94.07.04.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.3-6.34.423.3-9.0
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-6.4-3.43.81.8-0.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-9.7-11.94.711.5-  
Unemployment Rate7.98.58.27.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-3.6-4.0-4.9-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.230.125.127.631.0
Money (annual variation in %)14.319.150.661.069.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)25.127.227.620.156.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)27.128.226.121.140.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)24.826.820.816.652.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)15.1214.6414.5014.5014.74
Stock Market (annual variation in %)57.018.679.1302.8480.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.154.304.304.306.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.154.264.304.306.09
Current Account (% of GDP)0.73.77.72.91.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.38.824.411.05.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)16.427.246.038.035.9
Exports (USD billion)57.665.792.897.389.0
Imports (USD billion)40.738.546.859.353.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-39.414.141.24.9-8.6
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.0-5.221.526.8-10.6
International Reserves (USD)35.029.529.929.921.5
External Debt (% of GDP)24.940.735.131.334.3

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield8.800.0 %Jan 23
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Jan 28
Stock Market3,8800.0 %Jan 28

Venezuela Economic Growth

January 20, 2015

The economic climate is deteriorating severely because of skyrocketing inflation and falling oil prices. Against this backdrop, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists shaved off 1.8 percentage points from last month’s projection and they now expect a 3.8% contraction in GDP for 2015. For 2016, the panel sees GDP recovering somewhat and expanding 0.5%.

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