Bangladesh Economic Forecast

Bangladesh Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

GDP growth picked up to 7.2% in FY 2022, which ends in June. This was partly due to faster growth in manufacturing activity. Moreover, the services sector saw a broad-based acceleration, with subsectors such as retail, transport and hospitality improving as the domestic impact of the pandemic subsided. On the downside, the agricultural sector lost momentum. In early June, the Central Bank moved from a managed float to a free float regime for the taka, with the currency promptly depreciating by around 7%. While the move will support export competitiveness and safeguard reserves, it will also spur inflation. Also in June, the government presented an expansionary FY 2023 budget, which proposes a double-digit rise in nominal spending—with an emphasis on boosting social and infrastructure spending—corporate tax cuts and a fiscal deficit target of 5.5% of GDP.

Bangladesh Economic Growth

Bangladesh should be one of the region’s star performers in FY 2023 thanks to favorable demographics and strong domestic demand growth, aided by a loose fiscal stance and healthy remittances. That said, towards the end of June, the country suffered its worst flooding in many years, which could be weighing on agriculture at the outset of the new FY. Further extreme weather events are a risk. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 6.6% in FY 2023, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.9% in FY 2024.

Bangladesh Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)160162163165167
GDP per capita (USD)1,2201,3721,5211,6501,829
GDP (USD bn)195222248272305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.67.17.37.98.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)11.813.114.614.88.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-3.4-3.3-4.6-5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.733.333.434.635.7
Money (annual variation in %)12.416.410.99.29.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.15.05.85.35.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.25.55.75.55.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.81.9-0.5-3.5-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.54.3-1.3-9.6-5.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.9-5.4-9.5-18.2-15.4
Exports (USD billion)30.733.534.036.340.0
Imports (USD billion)36.638.843.554.555.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.39.01.76.610.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.76.012.025.21.8
International Reserves (USD)27.532.133.232.032.7
External Debt (% of GDP)18.617.519.019.2-  

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Bangladesh Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate84.890.14 %Jan 01

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