Economic Snapshot for G7 Countries
December 23, 2019
Global economic growth is seen stable next year
Global economic growth is seen stable next year, as weaker momentum in the G7 and China should be offset by stronger growth in other emerging markets. Key risks to the outlook include trade tensions, which will likely persist despite the reported “phase one” deal between the U.S. and China, and possible further social unrest
Global Monetary & Financial Sector News
Global price pressures remain largely subdued due to weak crude prices and mild growth. The same factors will likely keep inflation broadly unchanged in 2020, notwithstanding some likely further monetary easing.
Major central banks kept rates unchanged in recent weeks, amid an international panorama which is slightly less uncertain due to apparent progress on U.S.-China trade talks. Looking ahead, on balance panelists see some further monetary loosening in 2020—albeit to a much smaller extent than in 2019—as central banks take advantage of generally mild inflation to boost growth.
Over the last month, the pound gained strength after the UK election returned a stable parliamentary majority, while the Chinese yuan benefited from reduced trade tensions, and the Canadian dollar and euro also picked up. In contrast, the yen lost ground amid lower safe-haven demand.
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Major Economies Economic News
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Germany: Business sentiment retreats in January
January 27, 2020
German business confidence tanked at the opening of the new year, with the ifo Business Climate Index dropping to 95.9 in January from 96.3 in December.
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United Kingdom: Services and manufacturing PMIs rise in January as political uncertainty recedes
January 24, 2020
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from a revised 50.0 in December (previously reported: 49.0) to 52.9 in January, the highest reading in over one year and above the threshold that separates expansion from contraction in activity.
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Japan: Core inflation accelerates in December
January 24, 2020
The core consumer price index increased 0.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in December, following November’s 0.2% rise.
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Japan: Composite PMI jumps to a four-month high in January
January 24, 2020
A flash reading of the Jibun Bank composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed an increase to 51.1 in January from a revised 48.6 in December (previously reported: 49.8).
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Germany: Private sector starts new year on stronger footing, while the outlook improves
January 24, 2020
Germany’s private-sector economy started the new year on stronger footing as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, rose to 51.1 in January from 50.2 in December (previously reported: 49.4).
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