Economic Snapshot for G7 Countries
March 4, 2020
Global economic growth is seen dipping slightly in 2020
Global economic growth is seen dipping slightly this year compared to last as the coronavirus weighs on momentum in H1, particularly in China. However, the “phase-one” U.S .-China trade deal should reduce global trade uncertainty to an extent. A possible worsening of the viral outbreak, a resurgence of U.S.-China tensions and social unrest in some countries pose downside risks.
Global Monetary & Financial Sector News
Global price pressures remain subdued due to moderate growth and weak oil prices, which have fallen sharply since the start of the year. The same factors will likely keep global inflation broadly unchanged through the rest of 2020, although certain Latin American and African countries will experience high inflation, and African swine fever should continue to fan price pressures in Asia.
The PBOC loosened its stance in recent weeks to fend off the impact of coronavirus, with several other Asian central banks following suit. G7 central banks have made no policy changes recently. Panelists see some further loosening in 2020, as central banks take advantage of generally mild inflation to support activity in the face of virus-induced uncertainty.
Over the last month, the U.S. dollar has appreciated against other major currencies such as the CAD, CNY, EUR and GBP, but weakened against the JPY. Coronavirus fears boosting safe-haven demand, coupled with strong economic momentum, have likely underpinned the USD’s strength in recent weeks.
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Major Economies Economic News
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Italy: Health emergency and containment measure sap business confidence in March
March 27, 2020
The National Institute of Statistics (Istat)’s composite business confidence indicator (Clima di Fiducia delle Imprese Italiane, IESE)—which covers the manufacturing, construction, market services and retail sectors—dived to an over six-year low of 81.7 in March from February’s 97.8, hit by fears of a further spread of coronavirus and by the associated containment measures. March saw the retail trade sector taking the biggest hit, torpedoed by tumbling future business expectations.
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Italy: Consumer confidence tumbles in March amid the spread of coronavirus and lockdown measures
March 27, 2020
The consumer confidence index released by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) slumped to 101.0 in March from February’s 110.9, hit by the rapid spread of Covid-19 and the lockdown imposed by the Italian government. March’s plunge came on the back of a broad-based deterioration in the economic, personal, current and future components.
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France: Business confidence falls in March
March 26, 2020
In March, the French Statistical Institute’s (INSEE) business climate indicator for the manufacturing sector fell to 98 in March from 101 in February.
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Germany: Consumer confidence to be hard-hit by coronavirus pandemic in April
March 26, 2020
The forward-looking GfK Consumer Climate index signaled a sharp decline in consumer sentiment in April, opening the second quarter on the weakest footing since May 2009 amid the coronavirus pandemic.
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Germany: Business sentiment falls to over one-decade low in March
March 25, 2020
German business confidence nosedived more than previously estimated, with the final ifo Business Climate Index release for March showing that it fell to the lowest level since July 2009.
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