Major Economies Economic Outlook
The G7 economy is seen slowing this year from 2024, largely due to softer growth in Canada, France and the U.S. Other G7 members should see faster economic expansions—Japan is currently seen accelerating the most from 2024. U.S. tariff policy towards other members of the bloc is the key risk factor.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation has neared central banks’ 2.0% targets in Canada, the Eurozone and the U.S. since the start of this year, while staying notably above target in Japan and the UK. Across the G7, inflation is expected to average 2.0–3.0% in 2025—similar to last year but still above pre-pandemic norms. U.S. inflation is seen rising in H2 as tariff hikes feed through.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2021.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | -4.8 | -4.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 120 | 119 | 119 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.71 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,772 | 53,996 | 55,090 | 58,282 | 60,368 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,984 | 3,823 | 3,809 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,517 | 5,187 | 5,341 |