Major Economies Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for G7 Countries

December 23, 2019

Global economic growth is seen stable next year

Global economic growth is seen stable next year, as weaker momentum in the G7 and China should be offset by stronger growth in other emerging markets. Key risks to the outlook include trade tensions, which will likely persist despite the reported “phase one” deal between the U.S. and China, and possible further social unrest

Global Monetary & Financial Sector News

Global price pressures remain largely subdued due to weak crude prices and mild growth. The same factors will likely keep inflation broadly unchanged in 2020, notwithstanding some likely further monetary easing.

Major central banks kept rates unchanged in recent weeks, amid an international panorama which is slightly less uncertain due to apparent progress on U.S.-China trade talks. Looking ahead, on balance panelists see some further monetary loosening in 2020—albeit to a much smaller extent than in 2019—as central banks take advantage of generally mild inflation to boost growth.

Over the last month, the pound gained strength after the UK election returned a stable parliamentary majority, while the Chinese yuan benefited from reduced trade tensions, and the Canadian dollar and euro also picked up. In contrast, the yen lost ground amid lower safe-haven demand.

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