Economic Snapshot for G7 Countries
July 24, 2019
Global economic growth is still seen dipping this year
Global growth is likely to dim this year, due largely to weaker momentum in developed economies and China. However, tight labor markets and more accommodative monetary policy should prop up activity. A further escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, is the key downside risk.
The global economy is projected to expand 2.8% in 2019. For 2020, the global economy is projected to expand 2.8%.
Global Monetary & Financial Sector News
Global inflation was stable at 3.0% in June, according to a FocusEconomics estimate which excludes Venezuela. Inflation for 2019 as a whole is expected to be below 2018, due largely to softer economic growth and expected lower average crude prices.
In recent weeks, Canada’s Central Bank stayed put; the Fed Chairman hinted at near-term loosening; and Christine Lagarde was nominated as ECB president, suggesting policy continuity. Global interest rates should fall ahead as the Fed is seen cutting rates, providing room for emerging markets to loosen their stances in turn.
The CAD, CHF and JPY gained ground against the USD over the last month on dovish comments from the Fed. In contrast, the GBP continued to fall on rising Brexit uncertainty, while the EUR was largely unchanged, weighed on by weak economic data.
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Major Economies Economic News
Japan: Core inflation stabilizes in July
August 23, 2019
The core consumer price index rose 0.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in July, contrasting June’s 0.1% drop. Core inflation was stable at June’s 0.6% in July.
Japan: Manufacturing PMI inches up in August but remains in contractionary territory
August 22, 2019
The Jibun Bank flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from July’s 49.4 (previously reported: 49.6) to 49.5 in August.
Germany: Germany: Composite PMI improves slightly in August but still languishes around six-year lows
August 22, 2019
Leading indicators suggest momentum in the Eurozone’s largest economy remained weak in August, amid divergent dynamics in the services and manufacturing sectors.
Eurozone: Composite PMI edges up in August
August 22, 2019
Leading indicators point to slightly improved dynamics in August in the Euro area’s economy.
France: Private-sector activity improves in July
August 22, 2019
The seasonally-adjusted IHS Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 52.7 points in August, from 51.9 points in July, and remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business conditions.
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