Major Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists continued to trim their forecasts for 2025 GDP growth in May due to greater global protectionism. The U.S. has seen its forecast cut the most in the G7 so far this year, but is still expected to be the bloc’s top performer thanks to a loose fiscal stance and a dynamic tech sector. Germany should be a laggard due to a weak industrial sector.
Major Economies Inflation
In April vs March, inflation was stable in Japan and the Euro area, jumped in the UK due to a scheduled energy tariff adjustment, and declined in Canada and the U.S. on lower fuel price pressures. Inflation is projected to average between 2.0% and 3.0% in the G7 this year. The U.S. and UK will see the bloc’s highest inflation rates, and France the lowest rate.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2023 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,984 | 3,823 | 3,809 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,517 | 5,187 | 5,341 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,773 | 53,997 | 55,090 | 58,285 | 60,348 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | -4.9 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 121 | 120 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.71 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.1 |