Major Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists see GDP growth in major advanced economies easing in 2024 from 2023. Slowdowns in Canada, Japan and the U.S. will more than offset faster momentum in the Euro area. The monetary policy outlook is a two-sided risk; while central banks are expected to cut rates this year, there is a large discrepancy among panelists over the timing and size of these cuts.
Major Economies Inflation
In January, inflation was stable in the UK and fell in Canada, the Euro area and the U.S. Inflation should average lower in 2024 than in 2023 in all major economies, thanks to lower global commodity prices and the lagged impact of past rate hikes on demand. By Q4, inflation in most major economies should average just above central banks’ 2.0% targets.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP per capita (USD) | 49,899 | 48,749 | 53,857 | 54,682 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -4.3 | 5.7 | 2.5 | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.4 | -5.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.5 | -4.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -0.7 | -7.1 | 5.3 | 2.4 | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -11.5 | -8.7 | - | - |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 114 | 134 | 128 | 123 | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 0.95 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 3.46 | 4.72 |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 57.89 | 56.08 | 57.57 | 59.78 | 61.84 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -2.2 | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,938 | 5,337 | 6,436 | 7,071 | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 6,661 | 6,040 | 7,399 | 8,712 | - |