Major Economies Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for G7 Countries

July 24, 2019

Global economic growth is still seen dipping this year

Global growth is likely to dim this year, due largely to weaker momentum in developed economies and China. However, tight labor markets and more accommodative monetary policy should prop up activity. A further escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, is the key downside risk.

The global economy is projected to expand 2.8% in 2019. For 2020, the global economy is projected to expand 2.8%.

 
 
 
Global Monetary & Financial Sector News

Global inflation was stable at 3.0% in June, according to a FocusEconomics estimate which excludes Venezuela. Inflation for 2019 as a whole is expected to be below 2018, due largely to softer economic growth and expected lower average crude prices.

 
 

In recent weeks, Canada’s Central Bank stayed put; the Fed Chairman hinted at near-term loosening; and Christine Lagarde was nominated as ECB president, suggesting policy continuity. Global interest rates should fall ahead as the Fed is seen cutting rates, providing room for emerging markets to loosen their stances in turn.

The CAD, CHF and JPY gained ground against the USD over the last month on dovish comments from the Fed. In contrast, the GBP continued to fall on rising Brexit uncertainty, while the EUR was largely unchanged, weighed on by weak economic data.  

 

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