Major Economies Economic Outlook
The U.S. is forecast to grow above 2% this year and next, thanks to robust consumer spending and tech investment. Canada, Japan and Europe’s largest economies, lacking the U.S.’ dynamic AI industry and spendthrift consumers, are expected to grow around or below 1% this year. Most of these economies should then gain some steam in 2027.
Major Economies Inflation
Inflation is currently above central banks’ 2.0% targets in all G7 economies bar Japan as a result of high energy prices. Inflation is projected to stay above target for the rest of this year before declining through 2027 in line with easing energy costs and tighter monetary policy in several economies. Prolonged disruptions in the Hormuz Strait are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 1.3 | -0.7 | -1.4 | 1.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 54,415 | 55,524 | 58,577 | 60,786 | 64,278 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,494 | 3,998 | 3,851 | 3,855 | 3,988 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.02 | 3.30 | 4.56 | 3.70 | 2.94 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -1,274 | -1,524 | -1,335 | -1,488 | -1,596 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.8 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,768 | 5,522 | 5,186 | 5,343 | 5,584 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,958 | 1,755 | 1,835 | 1,764 | 1,964 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.6 | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.4 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 124 | 119 | 117 | 117 | 118 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.3 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |