Major Economies Economic Outlook
After repeated downgrades, the Consensus for 2025 regional GDP growth stabilized in June as panelists awaited future tariff pronouncements. The U.S. is seen as the bloc’s top performer thanks to a loose fiscal stance and a dynamic tech sector. In contrast, Germany should be the G7’s laggard, with its industrial sector contracting for the fourth straight year.
Major Economies Inflation
Since the start of this year, inflation has moved close to central banks’ 2.0% targets in Canada, the Euro area and the U.S., and remained well above target in Japan and the UK. Inflation is projected to average between 2.0–3.0% in the G7 this year, close to last year’s average but high by pre-pandemic standards.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | -4.8 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 120 | 119 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.71 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,773 | 53,997 | 55,090 | 58,285 | 60,348 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,984 | 3,823 | 3,809 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,517 | 5,187 | 5,341 |