GDP in USA

USA - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
GDP growth slows significantly in the fourth quarter
The economy grew moderately in the fourth quarter, albeit at a more modest pace than in the previous quarter. According to a preliminary GDP estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy expanded 4.0% in Q4 in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), matching analysts’ expectations, after increasing 33.4% in the previous quarter. In annual terms, GDP declined 2.5% in Q4 after dropping 2.8% in Q3. Overall in 2020, the economy contracted 3.5% (2019: +2.2% yoy), marking the worst performance since at least 1946.
The fourth quarter’s slowdown in growth was predominately driven by softer domestic demand growth as a sharp increase in new Covid-19 cases since late October led to the reimposition of some lockdown measures in parts of the country. Private consumption growth eased to 2.5% SAAR (Q3: +41.0% SAAR), while fixed investment growth also softened to 18.4% in Q4 (Q3: +31.3% SAAR). That said, the fall in government consumption moderated to 1.2%, compared to the previous quarter´s 4.8% decline.
Turning to the external sector, growth in exports of goods and services dipped to 22.0% in Q4 from 59.6% in the third quarter, while growth in imports of goods and services eased to 29.5% from 93.1%. The external sector thus subtracted 1.5 percentage points from the headline figure, which was less pronounced than the third quarter’s subtraction of 3.2 percentage points.
The spike in new Covid-19 cases domestically led to stricter lockdown measures in the fourth quarter and weighed heavily on the economic recovery. This headwind will likely carry over into early 2021, but strong fiscal stimulus measures announced in late December and again in January, coupled with the ongoing rollout of an effective vaccine, should bolster economic conditions over the medium term.
Commenting on the outlook, James Knightley, chief economist at ING, noted:
“While we acknowledge there are obvious risks that virus mutations deliver setbacks or problems arise with the vaccination program, we think the positives outweigh the negative risks. Consequently 5% growth looks achievable this year and this is before we consider the potential boost from President Biden's $3tn+ Build Back Better infrastructure and energy plan.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2021, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before growing 3.3% in 2022.
United States - GDP (USD bn) Data
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (USD bn) | 18,225 | 18,715 | 19,519 | 20,580 | 21,428 |
United States Facts
Value | Change | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
Bond Yield | 1.92 | -0.43 % | Dec 31 |
Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Economic News
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United States: Consumer confidence rises in February
February 23, 2021
Consumer confidence came in at 91.3 in February, up from January's 88.9.
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United States: Home price growth loses some pace in December
February 23, 2021
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index—excluding Detroit due to reporting delays—increased 0.8% month-on-month in December down from November’s 1.1% rise.
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United States: Retail sales rebound robustly in January
February 17, 2021
Retail sales soared 5.3% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in January, contrasting December's 1.0% decrease and marked the strongest rise since June 2020.
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United States: Labor market conditions improve marginally in January
February 5, 2021
Total non-farm payrolls increased a modest 49,000 in January, virtually meeting analysts’ expectations of a 50,000 increase.
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United States: ISM manufacturing index dips but remains robust in January
February 1, 2021
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index ticked down to 58.7 in January from 60.5 in December, and missed market expectations of a 60.0 reading.