Consumption in Spain
Spain - Consumption
Second estimate significantly revises down Q2 growth
A second estimate revealed that the economy grew 1.1% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q2—a much softer increase than the 2.8% expansion reported in the preliminary release, but still contrasting the 0.6% contraction recorded in the first quarter. In year-on-year terms, the economy grew 17.5% in Q2, down from the preliminary estimate of a 19.8% rise but swinging from the 4.2% drop recorded in Q1, helped by a very low base effect.
The revision was predominantly driven by a more moderate increase in household spending, although it remained robust amid the lifting of restrictions, stronger consumer confidence and growing employment numbers. Private consumption rose 4.7% on a quarterly basis, down from the preliminary estimate of 6.6% but swinging from the 2.2% drop logged in Q1. Meanwhile, government consumption increased 0.9% from the prior quarter (Q1: +0.4% s.a. qoq), likely due to higher spending on healthcare. However, fixed investment declined 2.2% quarter-on-quarter as investment in tangible fixed assets, housing, and machinery and equipment fell, likely due to uncertainty over the government’s economic policies (Q1: +0.1% s.a. qoq).
Meanwhile, the external sector made a negative contribution to growth due to imports expanding at a sharper pace than exports. Exports of goods and services rose a timid 0.9% (Q1: +0.3% s.a. qoq) amid a still-subdued tourism industry. Imports, meanwhile, were up 4.2% in quarterly terms (Q1: +0.4% s.a. qoq), highlighting strengthening domestic demand.
Our panelists project the economy to grow 6.3% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.
Spain - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||2.9||2.6||3.0||1.8||1.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.46||5.62 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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September 23, 2021
A second estimate revealed that the economy grew 1.1% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q2—a much softer increase than the 2.8% expansion reported in the preliminary release, but still contrasting the 0.6% contraction recorded in the first quarter.
September 10, 2021
Industrial output grew 3.4% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms in July, which was a deterioration from June’s 11.0% increase.
September 3, 2021
The IHS Markit composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped from 61.2 in July to 60.6 in August, reflecting milder growth in the services sector more than offsetting a stronger expansion in manufacturing activity.
September 2, 2021
Spain’s current account balance recorded a surplus of EUR 0.3 billion in June 2021, below the EUR 2.1 billion surplus logged in June 2020 and May 2021’s EUR 0.9 billion surplus.
September 1, 2021
Retail sales grew 0.1% year-on-year in July, softening from the 1.4% growth tallied in June.