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Croatia Private consumption

Croatia Private consumption

Private Consumption in Croatia

In the year 2024, the private consumption in Croatia was 5.78%, compared to -2.53% in 2014 and 3.16% in 2023. It averaged 2.98% over the last decade. For more information on private consumption, visit our dedicated page

Croatia Private consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Croatia from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.

Croatia Private consumption Data

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -5.2 10.9 6.9 3.2 5.8

GDP growth grows at softest pace in a year and a half in Q1

Croatian economy starts 2025 on a sour note: GDP growth moderated to 2.9% year on year in the first quarter from 3.9% in the fourth quarter of last year. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth also lost steam, cooling to 0.3% in Q1 compared to the previous quarter's 1.2% expansion. Both results marked the worst readings since Q3 2023.

Domestic demand drives the deceleration: Household spending growth slowed to 1.7% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter's 6.3% expansion, curbed by stronger price pressures and slower wage growth. Moreover, public spending growth was the slowest since Q4 2021 as it returned to more sustainable levels, expanding 5.8% (Q4 2024: +8.9% yoy). In addition, fixed investment growth softened to 4.5% in Q1, compared to 9.5% logged in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth accelerated to 6.0% year on year in the first quarter, which marked the best reading since Q1 2023 (Q4 2024: +4.7% yoy). Sturdier growth for goods exports outweighed a decline in exports of services, hinting that front-loading efforts ahead of greater U.S. tariffs played a role. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 8.8% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +9.9% yoy).

GDP growth to ease this year: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to hover around Q1’s level throughout the remainder of 2025. Relative to 2024, domestic demand is set to lose some traction overall this year, curbed by a high base of comparison and softer wage growth. Meanwhile, exports are set to gain some traction amid a robust tourism sector. Nonetheless, the external outlook is highly contingent on the strength of EU demand, which in turn hinges on trade relations between the U.S. and the EU—heightened trade barriers between the two could dampen demand for Croatian goods and services via a slowdown in the EU.

Panelist insight: Alen Kovac, analyst at Erste Bank, commented: “We continue to see growth just shy of 3% mark, suggesting around 1pp moderation compared to 2024, yet still see it keeping solid, above [the] EU average […]. Domestic demand is seen remaining [the] growth backbone, with both private consumption and investments providing solid, yet softer, backing to the headline figure. […] External demand remains shaped by [a] still weak EU growth profile, while lacking clarity as [far as the] outlook goes, as trade war and global geopolitics keep adding to the uncertainty.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Croatian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Croatian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Croatian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Croatian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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