Venezuela Economic Outlook
September 15, 2020
The economic panorama remained bleak as the coronavirus pandemic and dwindling oil production hammered domestic activity in the first half of the year and into Q3. Oil production in July remained close to the lowest level in nearly 80 years amid U.S. sanctions against PDVSA, the state oil company. Moreover, the last working oil rig was closed down in August as production in the Orinoco belt and the Maracaibo basin dried up. Furthermore, gasoline shortages led to rationing of supplies due to multiple shutdowns at PDVSA’s Paraguaná refining center in early September. In the political scene, upcoming elections are resulting in a fracturing of opposition parties—to the benefit of incumbent President Maduro—as opposition leaders disagree over whether to contest December’s congressional elections or abstain from a vote they consider fraudulent and rigged.Venezuela Economic Growth
This year, the economy is projected to contract for a seventh consecutive year, amid ongoing U.S. sanctions and slack global oil demand. Oil output is set to fall in kind, limiting access to crucial sources of foreign currency. A steadily increasing rate of new Covid-19 cases, paired with the state’s limited capacity to deal with the fallout, is a key risk to the outlook. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to contract 23.7% in 2020, which is down 1.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the panel sees GDP shrinking 2.1%.Venezuela Economy Data
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Venezuela Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.50 | 0.0 % | Aug 19 |
| Exchange Rate | 248,832 | 0.0 % | Aug 17 |
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Venezuela Economic News
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Venezuela: Inflation falls to over two-year low in May but remains sky-high and is expected to spike on Covid-19 fallout
June 8, 2020
National consumer prices rose 38.6% form the previous month in May, up from April’s 27.5% month-on-month increase and marking the highest print in four months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 8 June.
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Venezuela: Inflation falls to two-year low in March but remains sky-high and is expected to spike on Covid-19 fallout
April 24, 2020
National consumer prices rose 13.3% from the previous month in March, down from February’s 21.8% month-on-month increase and marking the lowest print since June 2017, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 24 April.
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Venezuela: Economic depression set to deepen despite government measures to fight Covid-19
March 26, 2020
On 17 March, a nationwide quarantine was declared by the government to fight the Covid-19 health crisis.
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Venezuela: Inflation eases to near two-year low in December amid rapid dollarization of the economy
February 4, 2020
National consumer prices rose 31.5% from the previous month in December, up from November’s 25.7% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 4 February.
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Venezuela: Inflation eases to seventh-month low in September amid Central Bank’s contractionary policies
October 19, 2019
National consumer prices surged 52.2% from the previous month in September, up from August’s 34.6% month-on-month jump according to the trove of data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 19 October.
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