Venezuela Economic Outlook
January 18, 2022Economic conditions likely improved in H2 2021, following years of economic collapse. Oil production increased in Q3 and continued to rise in both October and November, while news reports suggest that oil exports were upbeat in December. This came despite U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector, and was likely thanks to the assistance of Iran following a deal struck last year. Moreover, official data shows that inflation slowed considerably in Q4, likely curbed by government measures such as reduced spending in bolivars and credit restriction. On the fiscal front, news reports show that the government expects income from crude exports will finance 61% of its USD 13.6 billion budget for 2022, which also hints at ongoing negotiations to loosen existing sanctions. In politics, an opposition candidate recently won the gubernatorial race in the small but highly symbolic Barinas state.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe economy should expand this year, on the back of an extremely low base effect amid increasing remittances and oil production. The scope of the government’s intervention in the economy and the level of inflation will determine the extent of growth. Moreover, the U.S.’ stance over sanctions and talks with the opposition are key factors to watch. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel forecasts the economy to expand 5.2% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy growing 4.9%.
Venezuela Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
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Venezuela Economic News
June 16, 2021
National consumer prices rose 28.5% from the previous month in May, up from April’s 24.6% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
May 18, 2021
National consumer prices rose 24.6% from the previous month in April, up from March’s 16.1% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
April 19, 2021
National consumer prices rose 16.1% from the previous month in March, down markedly from February’s 33.8% month-on-month increase and marking the lowest print in 12 months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
February 12, 2021
National consumer prices rose 46.6% from the previous month in January, down markedly from December’s 77.5% month-on-month increase which had marked the highest print in 22 months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
Venezuela: Depreciation of bolívar remains rampant in 2020; softens from levels seen in 2018 and 2019
January 1, 2021
The Venezuelan bolívar soberano fell sharply against the U.S. dollar in 2020 amid rampant inflationary pressures and tumbling oil production.