Venezuela Economic Outlook
February 13, 2018Policymakers changed the country’s exchange rate regime and devalued the bolivar over 80% at the start of February, a move aimed at easing a severe shortage of dollars and stemming black market activity. While the decision is a step in the right direction to correct exchange rate imbalances, the new DICOM rate is still drastically overvalued compared to the black market price of the bolivar. Moreover, it remains to be seen if there will be a sufficient supply of dollars in the new system to make it successful. Incoming evidence suggests Venezuela remains in a deep economic meltdown. Oil production dropped in December, while hyperinflation is expected to have run rampant in January. On the political front, the electoral commission set presidential elections for 22 April, moving the vote ahead from December as talks between the government and the opposition broke down. The vote appears set to be anything but free and fair, and it has been widely condemned by the international community.
Venezuela Economic GrowthSoaring inflation, shortages of basic goods and a high debt load will keep Venezuela in a deep recession this year. A turnaround in oil production, however, could breathe some life into the battered energy sector. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 6.7% in 2018, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, GDP is seen falling 1.6%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||29,000||0.0 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||4,682||2.04 %||Feb 22|
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Venezuela Economic News
February 12, 2018
Economic uncertainty deepened in Venezuela as the government implemented on 26 January yet another reform of the country’s foreign exchange system, amid a deep economic meltdown and a severe shortage of dollars that is fueling high inflation.
February 12, 2018
The available evidence continues to point to hyperinflation taking place in crisis-hit Venezuela.
February 8, 2018
Oil prices soared in January, coming in at a the highest level since November 2014.
January 16, 2018
The bolivar traded in the parallel market continued to depreciate at a record pace at the start of 2018, reaching a new all-time high of 178,546 VEF per USD on 12 January.
January 15, 2018
The available evidence continues to show that price pressures are exploding in crisis-hit Venezuela.