Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

After a seemingly timid recovery in H2 2021 following years of recession, the economy appears to have continued growing in Q1 2022. Oil production averaged higher in the period than in the previous quarter, moving further away Q3 2020’s low. This, coupled with higher energy prices, likely underpinned the economy. Moving to Q2, solid oil output in April bodes well for activity. That said, secondary sources show that petrol exports plunged to the lowest level in 19 months in May due to repairs at the main oil port, calling for caution. Meanwhile, as a further sign of economic opening, in late May the largest state-owned bank announced that it would start offering shares in the local stock market. Moreover, the U.S. will allow two European energy companies to ship Venezuelan oil to Europe starting from July, to replace Russian crude.

Venezuela Economic Growth

The economy should grow at a stronger pace this year, due to an extremely low base of comparison. Higher oil production, rising remittances from a buoyant U.S. labor market and some limited market opening will support activity, which should also benefit from reduced inflation. Upside risks stem from elevated oil prices and the lifting of U.S. sanctions. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel forecasts the economy to expand 9.8% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy growing 5.4%.

Venezuela Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)30.630.730.328.927.5
GDP per capita (USD)10,5689,0924,7553,411-  
GDP (USD bn)32427914498.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.2-17.0-15.7-19.6-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-11.8-26.3-21.1-18.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-8.9-19.4-16.2-20.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-20.4-45.1-45.3-37.5-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.4-  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate6.87.37.26.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.6-16.8-18.2-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)74.792.3120-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)1011591,12163,2574,946
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)181274863130,0609,585
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12225543865,37419,906
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5914.6214.7715.0024.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)2781173,884126,9855,521
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.3010.0010.00638.246,621
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.309.2910.0081.9415,910
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.6-0.46.18.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.1-3.98.78.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.911.022.020.9-  
Exports (USD billion)37.227.434.033.7-  
Imports (USD billion)33.316.412.012.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-50.1-26.424.2-1.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-29.5-50.9-26.66.5-  
International Reserves (USD)16.411.09.78.87.5
External Debt (% of GDP)38.645.778.7110-  

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate248,8320.0 %Aug 17

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