Venezuela Economic Outlook
August 6, 2019Oil production continued to fall in June, confirming that the brief uptick observed in April was short-lived. What’s more, state-run oil firm PDVSA could now lose one of its most prized assets; a U.S. appeals court recently ruled that the Canadian mining company Crystallex may seize shares of Citgo, the U.S-based refiner, as compensation for the nationalization of a gold mine back in 2011. Meanwhile, another large-scale power blackout occurred on 22 July. Against this backdrop, the IMF now sees the Venezuelan economy contracting 35% this year due notably to the freefall in oil output. On the political front, talks between the government and opposition resumed in Barbados on 8 July, with the latest round starting on 1 August. Lastly, on 5 August President Trump announced a near-total economic embargo on Venezuela including the freezing of government assets in the U.S., amplifying the current crisis.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe outlook remains dire. On the one hand, the political standoff between Maduro and Guaidó looks set to continue, though diplomatic talks could lead to a medium-term solution to the impasse. On the other hand, sanctions aimed at starving the government of hard currency worsen the already-dire state of the economy, which has roughly halved in only five years. The possibility of a political transition remains high, a scenario which some of our panelists have factored into their forecasts. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 25.5% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees GDP falling 5.0%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||25,789||2.04 %||Jul 31|
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Venezuela Economic News
June 10, 2019
National consumer prices jumped 33.8% from the previous month in April, following March’s 34.8% month-on-month surge, according to the trove of data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 28 May.
May 28, 2019
On 28 May, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) released macroeconomic data for the first time in nearly four years, highlighting the extent of the profound economic crisis currently gripping the country.
May 14, 2019
The Venezuelan bolívar soberano was sharply devalued, yet again, by the Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, BCV) on 22 April.
February 12, 2019
On 28 January, the Trump administration significantly increased the economic pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s government by announcing sweeping sanctions against PDVSA, the state-owned oil firm.
September 10, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.