Venezuela Economic Outlook
June 14, 2022After a seemingly timid recovery in H2 2021 following years of recession, the economy appears to have continued growing in Q1 2022. Oil production averaged higher in the period than in the previous quarter, moving further away Q3 2020’s low. This, coupled with higher energy prices, likely underpinned the economy. Moving to Q2, solid oil output in April bodes well for activity. That said, secondary sources show that petrol exports plunged to the lowest level in 19 months in May due to repairs at the main oil port, calling for caution. Meanwhile, as a further sign of economic opening, in late May the largest state-owned bank announced that it would start offering shares in the local stock market. Moreover, the U.S. will allow two European energy companies to ship Venezuelan oil to Europe starting from July, to replace Russian crude.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe economy should grow at a stronger pace this year, due to an extremely low base of comparison. Higher oil production, rising remittances from a buoyant U.S. labor market and some limited market opening will support activity, which should also benefit from reduced inflation. Upside risks stem from elevated oil prices and the lifting of U.S. sanctions. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel forecasts the economy to expand 9.8% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy growing 5.4%.
Venezuela Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
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Venezuela Economic News
December 5, 2022
The Venezuelan bolivar (VED) has fallen by over 25% against the U.S. dollar over the last month—reaching record lows—and 60.7% year to date.
June 16, 2021
National consumer prices rose 28.5% from the previous month in May, up from April’s 24.6% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
May 18, 2021
National consumer prices rose 24.6% from the previous month in April, up from March’s 16.1% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
April 19, 2021
National consumer prices rose 16.1% from the previous month in March, down markedly from February’s 33.8% month-on-month increase and marking the lowest print in 12 months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
February 12, 2021
National consumer prices rose 46.6% from the previous month in January, down markedly from December’s 77.5% month-on-month increase which had marked the highest print in 22 months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).