Venezuela Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020Economic conditions remain bleak in H2: Oil output in September inched up marginally from August, but remained close to June’s near 80-year low. Moreover, the U.S. announced further sanctions on previously permitted oil-for-fuel swap deals in early November, with the move set to exacerbate already chronic gasoline shortages. Consequently, crude inventories are likely to swell, and, with few export destinations available, production could be cut further as a response. In politics, embattled opposition leader Juan Guaidó received further bad news—following last month’s UK court judgement rejecting his claim for control over USD 1.0 billion of gold held by the Bank of England—after a U.S. judge ruled PDVSA 2020 bonds are valid and enforceable, dismissing his claims the bonds were fraudulently issued without National Assembly approval. This comes amid the fraught run-up to December’s parliamentary elections.
Venezuela Economic GrowthGDP is set to contract for the seventh year in a row in 2020; however, the recession should soften in 2021 due to a pickup in domestic consumption amid milder inflation. That said, much depends on the evolution and potential extension of currently enforced sanctions following the outcome of the U.S. elections, with any easing of restrictions likely to boost exports in 2021. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to contract 1.9% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, while in 2022, the panel sees the economy emerging from recession with GDP growing 6.0%.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
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Venezuela Economic News
February 12, 2021
National consumer prices rose 46.6% from the previous month in January, down markedly from December’s 77.5% month-on-month increase which had marked the highest print in 22 months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
Venezuela: Depreciation of bolívar remains rampant in 2020; softens from levels seen in 2018 and 2019
January 1, 2021
The Venezuelan bolívar soberano fell sharply against the U.S. dollar in 2020 amid rampant inflationary pressures and tumbling oil production.
Venezuela: Parliamentary elections set for 6 December amid fractured economic and political environment
November 10, 2020
On 6 December, Venezuela goes to the polls in a hotly contested parliamentary election that will decide the makeup of the National Assembly, currently the only government branch not in the hands of President Nicolás Maduro’s ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV, Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela).
October 8, 2020
National consumer prices rose 27.9% from the previous month in September, up from August’s 24.7% month-on-month increase and marking the highest print in four months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
Venezuela: Inflation falls to over two-year low in May but remains sky-high and is expected to spike on Covid-19 fallout
June 8, 2020
National consumer prices rose 38.6% form the previous month in May, up from April’s 27.5% month-on-month increase and marking the highest print in four months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 8 June.