Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

September 12, 2017

The 30 July vote on the constituent assembly has transformed the country into an outcast state and thrown it deeper into uncharted waters. Venezuela’s suspension from the Mercosur trade bloc and the imposition of harsher sanctions by the United States are clear indications of the growing diplomatic isolation the country is facing, which will likely accelerate its economic meltdown. Since the vote, the swings observed in the bolivar traded in the parallel market are a clear indication of the political uncertainty generated at home. As the latest political developments unfold, the economy continues its precipitous slide. Oil prices remain below USD 50.0 and inflationary pressures remain extremely elevated thus far in Q3, with a 422.6% increase in the money supply in July and sharp depreciations in the Dicom and parallel market rates in August.

Venezuela Economy Data

Population (million)29.429.830.230.631.0
GDP per capita (USD)12,95212,38115,929-  -  
GDP (USD bn)380369481-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.61.3-3.9-5.7-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)12.3-1.9-8.8-10.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.04.7-3.4-7.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)23.3-9.0-16.9-17.6-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.8-0.3-7.2-  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-1.9-12.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.631.328.5-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)61.069.764.0101159
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)21.140.662.2122-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.652.4-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.7414.8414.5914.62
Stock Market (annual variation in %)30348041.0278117
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.306.306.306.3010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.306.096.306.309.29
Current Account (% of GDP)  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)31.931.627.2-  -  
Exports (USD billion)88.888.874.7-  -  
Imports (USD billion)  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.30.0-15.8-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.0-16.9-  -  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.435.928.2-  -  

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Venezuela Facts

Bond Yield1,25622,729 %Sep 14
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Sep 21
Stock Market425,8550.02 %Sep 21

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Venezuela Economic Growth

September 12, 2017

The outlook has grown dimmer in recent weeks as the latest political developments have increased uncertainty. The structural problems plaguing the economy are unlikely to be addressed anytime soon as the regime fights for survival, implying that the recession the country has experienced since 2014 will continue this year and the next. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 7.6% in 2017, which is down one percentage point from last month’s forecast. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 2.7%.

Venezuela Economic News

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