Venezuela Economic Outlook
October 11, 2021Activity is starting to show some timid signs of recovery, following years of economic crisis. Oil production jumped in year-on-year terms in July-August, averaging higher than in Q2. That said, a lack of dilutants seemingly weighed on crude oil output in the key Orinoco oil belt in September. Meanwhile, news reports indicate that the government is allowing firms to run several previously-nationalized food companies, while maintaining ownership, in an attempt to improve operations. In politics, in late September the country reached an agreement with Iran to exchange its heavy oil for Iranian condensate, in a bid to boost oil exports and work around U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, the country recently removed six zeros from its currency and rebranded it as the “digital bolívar” from the “sovereign bolívar”, following the last overhaul three years ago, in an attempt to rein in hyperinflation.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe pace of economic contraction is expected to ease this year, and GDP should expand in 2022. That said, much depends on the extent of government intervention in the economy, the trajectory of inflation and the ability to rekindle oil production. Moreover, the evolution of U.S. sanctions and political agreements with the opposition are key factors to watch. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel forecasts the economy to contract 0.6% in 2021. In 2022, the panel sees the economy emerging from recession, with GDP growing 3.6%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection.
Venezuela Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
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Venezuela Economic News
June 16, 2021
National consumer prices rose 28.5% from the previous month in May, up from April’s 24.6% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
May 18, 2021
National consumer prices rose 24.6% from the previous month in April, up from March’s 16.1% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
April 19, 2021
National consumer prices rose 16.1% from the previous month in March, down markedly from February’s 33.8% month-on-month increase and marking the lowest print in 12 months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
February 12, 2021
National consumer prices rose 46.6% from the previous month in January, down markedly from December’s 77.5% month-on-month increase which had marked the highest print in 22 months, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
Venezuela: Depreciation of bolívar remains rampant in 2020; softens from levels seen in 2018 and 2019
January 1, 2021
The Venezuelan bolívar soberano fell sharply against the U.S. dollar in 2020 amid rampant inflationary pressures and tumbling oil production.