Venezuela Economic Outlook
February 12, 2019Venezuela was thrust into a political crisis on 23 January when the leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, declared himself interim president. With the U.S. and most countries in the European Union and Latin America recognizing his presidency, international pressure has mounted on President Nicolás Maduro to resign. The pressure was drastically ramped up on 28 January after the Trump administration imposed new sanctions against the state-owned oil firm PDVSA, effectively amounting to an oil embargo and which aim to block the Maduro government from accessing the country’s oil revenues. The sanctions are set to disrupt the government’s cash flow, curb oil production and exacerbate the economic crisis. Due to the highly contentious political environment and ever-changing domestic dynamics, the outcome from recent events remains highly uncertain.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe economic outlook has worsened amid heightened political tensions and the impact from the latest round of sanctions. Previously-imposed sanctions which hinder the country’s ability to access foreign credit and restructure debt continue to weigh on the already dire situation. As such, the economy is expected to remain in crisis, with GDP seen contracting for the sixth consecutive year in 2019. The possibility of a political transition has increased amid recent events, a scenario which some of our panelists have been factoring into their forecasts. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 10.3% in 2019, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees GDP falling 2.8%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||4,640||2.04 %||Feb 14|
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Venezuela Economic News
February 12, 2019
On 28 January, the Trump administration significantly increased the economic pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s government by announcing sweeping sanctions against PDVSA, the state-owned oil firm.
September 10, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.
June 11, 2018
At the seventeenth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 8 June, the bolivar sold at 94,112 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD), weakening 0.8% from the 93,392 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 1 June.