Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

January 18, 2022

Economic conditions likely improved in H2 2021, following years of economic collapse. Oil production increased in Q3 and continued to rise in both October and November, while news reports suggest that oil exports were upbeat in December. This came despite U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector, and was likely thanks to the assistance of Iran following a deal struck last year. Moreover, official data shows that inflation slowed considerably in Q4, likely curbed by government measures such as reduced spending in bolivars and credit restriction. On the fiscal front, news reports show that the government expects income from crude exports will finance 61% of its USD 13.6 billion budget for 2022, which also hints at ongoing negotiations to loosen existing sanctions. In politics, an opposition candidate recently won the gubernatorial race in the small but highly symbolic Barinas state.

Venezuela Economic Growth

The economy should expand this year, on the back of an extremely low base effect amid increasing remittances and oil production. The scope of the government’s intervention in the economy and the level of inflation will determine the extent of growth. Moreover, the U.S.’ stance over sanctions and talks with the opposition are key factors to watch. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel forecasts the economy to expand 5.2% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy growing 4.9%.

Venezuela Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)30.630.730.328.927.5
GDP per capita (USD)10,5689,0924,7553,411-  
GDP (USD bn)32427914498.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.2-17.0-15.7-19.6-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-11.8-26.3-21.1-18.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-8.9-19.4-16.2-20.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-20.4-45.1-45.3-37.5-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.4-  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate6.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.6-16.8-18.2-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)74.792.3120-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)1011591,12163,2574,946
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)181274863130,0609,585
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12225543865,37419,906
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5914.6214.7715.0024.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)2781173,884126,9855,521
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.3010.0010.00638.246,621
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.309.2910.0081.9415,910
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.911.022.020.9-  
Exports (USD billion)37.227.434.033.7-  
Imports (USD billion)33.316.412.012.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-50.1-26.424.2-1.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-29.5-50.9-26.66.5-  
International Reserves (USD)16.411.
External Debt (% of GDP)38.645.778.7110-  

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate248,8320.0 %Aug 17

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