Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

Economic conditions remain bleak in H2: Oil output in September inched up marginally from August, but remained close to June’s near 80-year low. Moreover, the U.S. announced further sanctions on previously permitted oil-for-fuel swap deals in early November, with the move set to exacerbate already chronic gasoline shortages. Consequently, crude inventories are likely to swell, and, with few export destinations available, production could be cut further as a response. In politics, embattled opposition leader Juan Guaidó received further bad news—following last month’s UK court judgement rejecting his claim for control over USD 1.0 billion of gold held by the Bank of England—after a U.S. judge ruled PDVSA 2020 bonds are valid and enforceable, dismissing his claims the bonds were fraudulently issued without National Assembly approval. This comes amid the fraught run-up to December’s parliamentary elections.

Venezuela Economic Growth

GDP is set to contract for the seventh year in a row in 2020; however, the recession should soften in 2021 due to a pickup in domestic consumption amid milder inflation. That said, much depends on the evolution and potential extension of currently enforced sanctions following the outcome of the U.S. elections, with any easing of restrictions likely to boost exports in 2021. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to contract 1.9% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, while in 2022, the panel sees the economy emerging from recession with GDP growing 6.0%.

Venezuela Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)30.630.730.328.927.5
GDP per capita (USD)10,5689,0924,7553,411-  
GDP (USD bn)32427914498.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.2-17.0-15.7-19.6-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-11.8-26.3-21.1-18.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-8.9-19.4-16.2-20.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-20.4-45.1-45.3-37.5-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-5.4-  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate6.87.37.26.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.6-16.8-18.2-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)74.792.3120-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)1011591,12163,2574,946
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)181274863130,0609,585
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12225543865,37419,906
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5914.6214.7715.0024.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)2781173,884126,9855,521
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.3010.0010.00638.246,621
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.309.2910.0081.9415,910
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.6-0.46.18.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.1-3.98.78.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.911.022.020.9-  
Exports (USD billion)37.227.434.033.7-  
Imports (USD billion)33.316.412.012.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-50.1-26.424.2-1.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-29.5-50.9-26.66.5-  
International Reserves (USD)16.411.09.78.87.5
External Debt (% of GDP)38.645.778.7110-  

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Venezuela Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate248,8320.0 %Aug 17

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