Venezuela Economic Outlook
March 17, 2020Venezuela’s depression likely deepened in the first quarter of 2020, after an apparent moderation in the pace of contraction in Q4 2019. The government’s initiative to privatize part of ailing PDVSA, the state-owned oil giant, at the outset of the year and improvements in commercial activity thanks to partial dollarization showed encouraging signs for economic activity going forward. However, an escalation of U.S. sanctions and plummeting crude prices in Q1 are set to hamper the economy in the short-term. In February–March, the Trump administration further squeezed the Venezuelan government by sanctioning two of the trading arms of Russia’s state oil producer Rosneft, which handles about half of the country’s oil exports, while also putting several companies that continue to do business in Venezuela on notice, including Chevron, Reliance Industries and Repsol. Moreover, March’s plunge in global oil prices is set to further stifle badly-needed state revenues and will likely obstruct the government’s efforts to retool PDVSA.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe economy is seen contracting for the seventh year running in 2020, albeit at a softer pace than in 2019. Easing government regulation and privatization prospects should aid business activity. Nevertheless, the collapse in oil prices is set to erode government consumption and could discourage foreign investment in the oil sector. Additional U.S. sanctions and the spread of coronavirus could exacerbate supply shortages ahead. The LatinFocus Consensus projects the economy to contract 11.0% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the panel sees GDP shrinking 2.1%.
Venezuela Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
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Venezuela Economic News
February 4, 2020
National consumer prices rose 31.5% from the previous month in December, up from November’s 25.7% month-on-month increase, according to data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 4 February.
Venezuela: Inflation eases to seventh-month low in September amid Central Bank’s contractionary policies
October 19, 2019
National consumer prices surged 52.2% from the previous month in September, up from August’s 34.6% month-on-month jump according to the trove of data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 19 October.
October 19, 2019
On 19 October, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) released fresh macroeconomic data for the first time in six months, underscoring the severity of the crisis currently gripping the country.
June 10, 2019
National consumer prices jumped 33.8% from the previous month in April, following March’s 34.8% month-on-month surge, according to the trove of data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 28 May.
May 28, 2019
On 28 May, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) released macroeconomic data for the first time in nearly four years, highlighting the extent of the profound economic crisis currently gripping the country.