Venezuela Economic Outlook
March 13, 2018Venezuela remains beset by profound economic and political crises. According to figures released by congress, which the opposition controls, the economy shrank a staggering 13.2% in 2017, marking the fourth year of a crippling recession. Citing ongoing fiscal struggles, Moody’s downgraded the government’s credit rating to C from Caa3 on 9 March. As the country descends deeper into crisis, it is gearing up for presidential elections now scheduled for 20 May, after they were initially moved forward to 22 April from December, when they are usually held. Many political parties opted to not participate in what they see as fraudulent elections that lack legitimacy. Moreover, the U.S. and the EU are contemplating additional sanctions against the country, while a group of Latin American nations, known as the “Lima group”, rejected the election and its outcome. In the first week of March, former governor Henri Falcón broke with the opposition coalition to launch his presidential candidacy. Although polls suggest that he could be a serious challenger, it is unlikely that he will beat Maduro.
Venezuela Economic GrowthVenezuela is expected to remain in a deep recession in the short to medium term on the back of hyperinflation, shortages of goods and large fiscal imbalances. While a rebound in the oil sector could alleviate some of the battered country’s issues, oil prices are expected to remain below the USD 100 mark, making it unlikely oil profits will significantly improve the country’s fortunes. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 7.7% in 2018, which is down 1.0 percentage point from last month’s forecast. In 2019, GDP is seen falling 1.5%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||43,980||0.0 %||Mar 20|
|Stock Market||7,421||2.04 %||Mar 20|
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Venezuela Economic News
March 7, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil fell in February to USD 58.0 per barrel (pb), down from the prior month’s multi-year high of USD 61.4 pb.
March 7, 2018
Venezuela’s new exchange rate system, introduced in late January, helped stem the slide of the bolivar in the parallel market, but already seems doomed to fail due to the persistent lack of dollars in the Venezuelan economy.
February 12, 2018
The available evidence continues to point to hyperinflation taking place in crisis-hit Venezuela.
February 12, 2018
Economic uncertainty deepened in Venezuela as the government implemented on 26 January yet another reform of the country’s foreign exchange system, amid a deep economic meltdown and a severe shortage of dollars that is fueling high inflation.
February 8, 2018
Oil prices soared in January, coming in at a the highest level since November 2014.