Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

Against a dire economic situation, Venezuelans will head to the polls on 20 May to vote in a presidential election widely criticized for its lack of legitimacy. Given electoral irregularities and a divided opposition, President Nicolás Maduro’s re-election is virtually guaranteed, suggesting that much-needed radical economic reforms to exit the current crisis are not likely to be implemented in the near term. Meanwhile, despite the recent jump in oil prices, preliminary figures showed oil production continued to fall in April, hitting a new three-decade low. Venezuela’s energy sector woes were compounded on 25 April, when ConocoPhillips won a USD 2.0 billion arbitration against state oil firm PDVSA. ConocoPhillips is moving to seize PDVSA’s assets in the Caribbean, which, if successful, could further cripple the country’s ability to export oil, hitting crucial oil revenues.

Venezuela Economic Growth

Venezuela is expected to remain in a deep economic crisis amid hyperinflation and widespread shortages. In addition, dwindling oil production coupled with large external debt repayments will further depress imports and private consumption. As the current economic policies are not likely to be drastically changed in the near future, FocusEconomics panelists see the economy continuing in a deep recession and contracting 9.3% in 2018, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, GDP is seen falling 1.5%.

Venezuela Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)29.830.230.631.031.4
GDP per capita (USD)12,38115,929-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)369481-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.3-3.9-5.7-  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.9-8.8-10.1-  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.7-3.4-7.8-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.0-16.9-17.6-  -  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)-0.3-7.2-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.57.06.8-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-12.9-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.328.5-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)69.764.0101159-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)56.268.5181-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)40.662.2122-  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)52.4-  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.7414.8414.5914.62-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)48041.0278117-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.306.306.3010.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.096.306.309.29-  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.20.7-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)4.63.6-18.2-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)31.627.2-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)88.874.7-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)57.247.5-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)0.0-15.8-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)0.0-16.9-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)21.022.016.011.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)35.928.2-  -  -  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate78,7500.0 %May 21
Stock Market22,7962.04 %May 21

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