Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

March 13, 2018

Venezuela remains beset by profound economic and political crises. According to figures released by congress, which the opposition controls, the economy shrank a staggering 13.2% in 2017, marking the fourth year of a crippling recession. Citing ongoing fiscal struggles, Moody’s downgraded the government’s credit rating to C from Caa3 on 9 March. As the country descends deeper into crisis, it is gearing up for presidential elections now scheduled for 20 May, after they were initially moved forward to 22 April from December, when they are usually held. Many political parties opted to not participate in what they see as fraudulent elections that lack legitimacy. Moreover, the U.S. and the EU are contemplating additional sanctions against the country, while a group of Latin American nations, known as the “Lima group”, rejected the election and its outcome. In the first week of March, former governor Henri Falcón broke with the opposition coalition to launch his presidential candidacy. Although polls suggest that he could be a serious challenger, it is unlikely that he will beat Maduro.

Venezuela Economic Growth

Venezuela is expected to remain in a deep recession in the short to medium term on the back of hyperinflation, shortages of goods and large fiscal imbalances. While a rebound in the oil sector could alleviate some of the battered country’s issues, oil prices are expected to remain below the USD 100 mark, making it unlikely oil profits will significantly improve the country’s fortunes. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 7.7% in 2018, which is down 1.0 percentage point from last month’s forecast. In 2019, GDP is seen falling 1.5%.

Venezuela Economy Data

Population (million)29.429.830.230.631.0
GDP per capita (USD)12,95212,38115,929-  -  
GDP (USD bn)380369481-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.61.3-3.9-5.7-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)12.3-1.9-8.8-10.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.04.7-3.4-7.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)23.3-9.0-16.9-17.6-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.8-0.3-7.2-  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-1.9-12.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.631.328.5-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)61.069.764.0101159
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)21.140.662.2122-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.652.4-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.7414.8414.5914.62
Stock Market (annual variation in %)30348041.0278117
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.306.306.306.3010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.306.096.306.309.29
Current Account (% of GDP)  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)31.931.627.2-  -  
Exports (USD billion)88.888.874.7-  -  
Imports (USD billion)  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.30.0-15.8-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.0-16.9-  -  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.435.928.2-  -  

Sample Report

5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.


Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.


Venezuela Facts

Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate43,9800.0 %Mar 20
Stock Market7,4212.04 %Mar 20

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Venezuela Economic News