Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

November 7, 2017

The ruling party scored an unexpected victory in the 15 October regional elections, leading the opposition to cry foul over irregularities. Internal disputes following the result caused the heterogenous opposition bloc MUD to fracture. The government has seized this opportunity and is planning on fast-tracking other local elections to cement its grip on power as the economy flounders. On 2 November President Nicolás Maduro called for restructuring its international debt after servicing over USD 2.0 billion in debt obligations in late October and early November. It remains uncertain if the government will commit to upcoming bond installments due this year, and the over USD 9.0 billion due in 2018 but public finances remain in critical condition, making a default increasingly likely. The latest bond payments coincided with the fifth salary hike this year and the release of a 100,000 VEF bill, 1,000 times bigger than the largest bill a year ago, underscoring the magnitude of the crippling crisis the country is facing.

Venezuela Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)29.429.830.230.631.0
GDP per capita (USD)12,95212,38115,929-  -  
GDP (USD bn)380369481-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.61.3-3.9-5.7-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)12.3-1.9-8.8-10.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.04.7-3.4-7.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)23.3-9.0-16.9-17.6-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.8-0.3-7.2-  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.87.57.06.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-1.9-12.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.631.328.5-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)61.069.764.0101159
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)20.156.268.5181-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)21.140.662.2122-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.652.4-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.7414.8414.5914.62
Stock Market (annual variation in %)30348041.0278117
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.306.306.306.3010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.306.096.306.309.29
Current Account (% of GDP)0.71.20.7-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.64.63.6-18.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)31.931.627.2-  -  
Exports (USD billion)88.888.874.7-  -  
Imports (USD billion)57.257.247.5-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.30.0-15.8-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.0-16.9-  -  
International Reserves (USD)30.021.022.016.011.0
External Debt (% of GDP)34.435.928.2-  -  

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Venezuela Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 20
Exchange Rate10.000.0 %Nov 17
Stock Market6852.04 %Nov 17

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Venezuela Economic Growth

November 7, 2017

Venezuela’s economic prospects are extremely bleak. The recent political events have dashed any possibility that the government will confront the structural imbalances in the economy as the regime attempts to hold on to power at all costs. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 3.5% in 2018, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the contraction is expected to soften to 1.5%.

Venezuela Economic News

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