Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

December 20, 2019

The economy picked up some pace in the third quarter according to recent data, although the expansion was still modest. The reading was buoyed by rising exports of chemicals, pharmaceuticals and energy, as well as a rebound in fixed investment. However, private consumption was stuck in a low gear, amid weak consumer sentiment, while manufacturing activity was soft. Turning to the fourth quarter, momentum likely remains moderate. While the manufacturing PMI averaged higher in October–November than in Q3, it was still in contractionary territory, and the KOF economic barometer slumped to a multi-year low in November on weak dynamics in the banking and insurance, and accommodation and food services sectors. Nevertheless, the labor market remains solid, with the unemployment remaining low through November, which should be supporting domestic activity.

Switzerland Economic Growth

The economy should gain momentum in 2020, buttressed by a tight labor market, a slight recovery in Germany, and likely lower international uncertainty given the phase one U.S.-China trade deal and greater clarity over Brexit. A possible resurgence of trade tensions and strained Swiss-EU relations cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 1.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.3% in 2021.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield-0.516.27 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate0.97-0.54 %Jan 01

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