Swiss housing on the lake with mountains in switzerland

Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

The economy lost steam in Q4 amid tighter monetary policy and slowdowns abroad, with average readings for the manufacturing and services PMIs lower than in Q3. However, PMI data still pointed to improving business conditions. In addition, rock-bottom unemployment and an inflation rate less than a third of the EU average will have propped up private spending, while services exports likely benefited from higher tourism flows. Turning to 2023, available data is fairly positive. Both the KOF Economic Barometer and the services PMI surged in January, with the services PMI benefiting from faster growth in business activity and employment. Less positively, the January manufacturing PMI indicated worsening operating conditions in the manufacturing sector.

Switzerland Inflation

Inflation came in at 3.3% in January, up from 2.8% in December and driven by faster food and housing inflation. However, January’s uptick should be short-lived: Inflation is expected to fall back to the Swiss National Bank (SNB)’s target of below 2.0% in H2 due to reduced supply constraints and weaker demand.

Switzerland Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7
GDP (USD bn) 695 725 722 739 799
GDP per capita (USD) 82 85 84 85 92
GDP (EUR bn) 617 615 645 648 676
GDP per capita (EUR) 73 72 75 75 77
GDP (CHF bn) 685 710 717 694 731
GDP per capita (CHF) 81 83 83 80 84
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.0 3.7 1.1 -3.3 5.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.4 2.9 1.2 -2.5 4.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.7 1.1 -2.9 2.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.2 0.6 1.2 -4.2 1.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.0 0.8 0.8 3.5 3.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.5 0.8 0.9 -3.1 4.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.1 3.3 -0.6 -5.5 12.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.3 0.7 0.3 -3.0 4.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.7 5.8 4.4 -3.7 8.9
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 4.6
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 0.2 1.6 1.7 2.6 1.5
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 3.2 2.6 2.5 3.5 2.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.1 2.5 2.3 3.1 3.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.1 1.3 1.3 -3.1 -0.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 28.1 26.1 25.5 28.3 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4.0 3.5 0.1 6.0 1.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.8 0.7 0.2 -0.8 1.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.5 0.9 0.4 -0.7 0.6
SNB Policy Rate (%, eop) -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) -0.10 -0.15 -0.46 -0.53 -0.13
Stock Market (ann. var. of Swiss Market Index, %) 14.1 -10.2 26.0 0.8 20.3
Exchange Rate (CHF per USD, eop) 0.97 0.99 0.97 0.88 0.91
Exchange Rate (CHF per USD, aop) 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.94 0.91
Exchange Rate (CHF per EUR, eop) 1.17 1.13 1.09 1.08 1.04
Exchange Rate (CHF per EUR, aop) 1.11 1.15 1.11 1.07 1.08
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 37.2 40.9 28.4 3.1 63.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 5.3 5.6 3.9 0.4 7.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 64.4 72.3 71.4 63.4 109.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 111.2 -83.2 -105.8 -162.7 1.0

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