Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

December 23, 2021

Economic growth slowed only slightly in Q3, although the headline reading was flattered by changes in inventories and statistical discrepancies. Underlying momentum was more subdued, amid a slowdown in private consumption and contractions in public spending, fixed investment and exports. Turning to Q4, available signs suggest that the economy has lost steam amid supply constraints, higher input prices and rising Covid-19 cases: The manufacturing PMI, services PMI and KOF Economic Barometer all fell through November. Moreover, in mid-December the federal government announced a tightening of restrictions to tame the advance of Omicron. Unvaccinated people are now barred from most public venues and citizens must work from home whenever possible, which has likely weighed on activity towards the end of the year.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Growth is seen easing in 2022, largely due to softer government consumption as pandemic-related spending demands fade. However, momentum should remain healthy nonetheless, supported by a strong labor market spurring private consumption. Covid-19 variants, and the gradual fraying of trade links with the EU in the absence of a revamped trade deal, cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to expand 3.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel expects GDP to grow 1.9%.

Switzerland Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.28.38.48.58.5
GDP per capita (USD)82,47980,64180,77883,09782,311
GDP (USD bn)679671680705703
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.31.71.82.81.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.20.81.80.80.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.71.41.21.01.2
Investment (annual variation in %)2.32.53.41.10.8
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.66.3-0.22.90.5
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)4.55.7-0.6-0.3-1.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.00.15.25.44.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.3-2.00.10.00.4
Unemployment Rate3.23.33.12.62.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.60.31.2-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.028.929.3-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)1.43.94.03.50.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.30.00.80.70.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-1.1-0.40.50.90.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.7-1.30.01.3-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.8-6.814.1-10.226.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.091.071.171.131.09
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.071.091.111.161.11
Current Account (% of GDP)11.39.96.48.212.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)77.066.243.357.686.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)36.832.829.731.236.1

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Switzerland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.516.27 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate0.97-0.54 %Jan 01

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