Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

August 27, 2019

Available data paints a mixed picture for the economy in the third quarter. Promisingly, the KOF economic barometer recovered notably in July. However, the manufacturing PMI plummeted to a one-decade low in the same month, while the services PMI dipped into contractionary territory. Moreover, consumers remained very pessimistic about their financial situation in Q3, suggesting household spending could be more subdued. This follows what was likely cooler growth in Q2, amid the downturn in the Eurozone and slowing global trade. In politics, despite the EU’s removal of Switzerland’s stock-exchange equivalence on 1 July, which allowed the trading of Swiss shares in the bloc, volumes in the SIX Swiss stock exchange surged in July. This suggests that the Swiss safeguard measures averted a major disruption in transactions and trading could even weather a prolonged trade dispute between the EU and Switzerland.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Economic growth is forecast to cool this year, weighed on by weak fixed investment and multiple headwinds, including weaker growth dynamics across Europe, a global trade slowdown and a high base effect. Resilient private consumption should support growth, however. A further deterioration in relations with the EU is a key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 1.3% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to expand 1.4% in 2020.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield-1.046.27 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate0.98-0.54 %Sep 04
Stock Market9,895-0.82 %Sep 04

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