Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

The latest data suggests the economy has been fairly subdued so far in Q2. In April, the manufacturing PMI deteriorated, likely owing to weak demand from the Eurozone, while the KOF economic barometer moved further below the long-run average. In more positive news from the same month, the services PMI surged, driven by increased client demand, while the unemployment rate was at the joint-lowest level since July 2008. This follows what should have been a fairly robust Q1 expansion. Industrial production was solid in Q1 and the services PMI was strong. Moreover, business confidence edged higher, which likely bodes well for fixed investment. That being said, retail sales ebbed and consumer confidence abated somewhat. In mid-May, the electorate approved a corporate-tax overhaul to ensure Switzerland remains a low tax domicile, while also satisfying international regulations. This will support economic competitiveness going forward.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Growth this year will likely taper owing to a high base effect and weakening EU demand weighing on exports and investment. Nevertheless, strong private consumption and recently approved corporate-tax legislation should support growth. Meanwhile, U.S.-E.U. trade uncertainty and tense bilateral relations with the EU are downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 1.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to expand 1.5% in 2020.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield-0.556.27 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate0.99-0.54 %Jun 13
Stock Market9,862-0.82 %Jun 13

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