Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

March 3, 2020

The economy likely expanded at a solid pace in the fourth quarter, although firm data is still outstanding. PMI figures suggest the downturn in the manufacturing sector eased, while the services sector should have grown at a mild rate. However, the unemployment rate averaged higher compared to Q3, which could have dampened household spending. Turning to 2020, early signs are mixed, and hint at another quarter of mild growth. On the one hand, the services PMI improved markedly in January and the KOF economic barometer rose higher in February on improving sentiment in the manufacturing sector. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI dipped and retail sales declined in January. Weaker foreign demand prospects can likely be linked to the coronavirus outbreak, which has spurred safe-haven demand for the franc, thus hurting export competitiveness.

Switzerland Economic Growth

The economy should gain some momentum in 2020, underpinned by solid domestic demand and despite soft global growth and the coronavirus weighing on the external sector. A possible resurgence of trade tensions, the uncertain evolution of the coronavirus, strained Swiss-EU relations and potential further currency appreciation cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 1.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.3% in 2021.

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Switzerland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.516.27 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate0.97-0.54 %Jan 01

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