Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

February 26, 2019

While official national accounts data has yet to released, growth should have recovered in the fourth quarter. The rebound could be short-lived, however, as data for Q1 suggests weaker global demand and a sluggish Euro-area are starting to take a toll on the export-oriented economy. The KOF economic barometer fell again in January, hampered by falling confidence in the manufacturing and services sectors, and drearier export prospects. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI reaffirmed softer dynamics, losing ground in the same month on weaker production and softer hiring activity. A stronger franc due to safe-haven demand could also be weighing on export competitiveness. In other news, Switzerland and the UK signed a trade continuity agreement on 11 February that fortifies the current trade relationship and prevents new tariffs should the UK leave the EU without a deal.

Switzerland Economic Growth

The economy is seen slowing this year as headwinds from global trade frictions, more subdued growth in the Euro-area, and negotiations over the institutional framework with the EU weigh on trade and business sentiment. Consumer spending should remain resilient thanks to a tight labor market and accommodative monetary conditions, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 1.5% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 1.6% in 2020.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield-0.416.27 %Mar 20
Exchange Rate0.99-0.54 %Mar 20
Stock Market9,463-0.82 %Mar 20

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