Spain Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020
After an unprecedented collapse in activity in Q2, recent data hints at a recovery that is already losing steam. Industrial production continued to cool midway through Q3, barely growing in monthly terms in August. Moreover, after returning to growth in July, the composite PMI slumped back into negative territory in August and fell deeper into contraction in September as the worsening of the health crisis pummeled services-sector activity. This, combined with consumer confidence remaining in the doldrums in Q3 and the reinstatement of stricter measures to combat the recent surge in virus cases, most notably in Catalonia and Madrid, bodes ill for household spending and thus the crucial services industry heading into Q4. Meanwhile, the government sent its 2021 draft budget to EU authorities for review on 15 October. The expansionary plan, which incorporates a slice of EU coronavirus recovery funds, should aid the revival of activity ahead.Spain Economic Growth
After a severe recession this year due to the Covid-19 blow, the economy is seen rebounding strongly next year as domestic and foreign demand come back to life. That said, key downside risks remain, including the prolongation of the health crisis, a languishing tourism industry that is prone to experiencing permanent damage, and persistent elevated unemployment. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 6.6% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2022.Spain Economy Data
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Spain Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.46 | 5.62 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Spain Economic News
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Spain: Housing permits rise again in September; housing prices dip again in Q3
November 30, 2020
The Spanish Board of Architects approved 8,615 new construction permits in September, according to data published by the Ministry of Public Works.
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Spain: Current account surplus falls markedly in September
November 30, 2020
Spain’s current account balance recorded a surplus of EUR 304 million in September, significantly below both the EUR 1.2 billion surplus recorded in September 2019 and August’s EUR 1.4 billion surplus.
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Spain: Retail sales fall more sharply in October
November 27, 2020
Retail sales dipped 2.4% compared to the same month a year ago in October, after falling 2.2% in September and marking the eighth consecutive month of declining sales.
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Spain: Industrial output contracts at softest pace in seven months in September
November 6, 2020
Industrial production dipped 3.4% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms in September, less severely than August’s 5.7% decline.
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Spain: Composite PMI dips to five-month low in October on sustained deterioration of services sector
November 4, 2020
Primarily reflecting a sharper contraction of services activity, the IHS Markit composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped from 44.3 in September to 44.1 in October—the lowest reading in five months.
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