Spain Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020
After an unprecedented collapse in activity in Q2, recent data hints at a recovery that is already losing steam. Industrial production continued to cool midway through Q3, barely growing in monthly terms in August. Moreover, after returning to growth in July, the composite PMI slumped back into negative territory in August and fell deeper into contraction in September as the worsening of the health crisis pummeled services-sector activity. This, combined with consumer confidence remaining in the doldrums in Q3 and the reinstatement of stricter measures to combat the recent surge in virus cases, most notably in Catalonia and Madrid, bodes ill for household spending and thus the crucial services industry heading into Q4. Meanwhile, the government sent its 2021 draft budget to EU authorities for review on 15 October. The expansionary plan, which incorporates a slice of EU coronavirus recovery funds, should aid the revival of activity ahead.Spain Economic Growth
After a severe recession this year due to the Covid-19 blow, the economy is seen rebounding strongly next year as domestic and foreign demand come back to life. That said, key downside risks remain, including the prolongation of the health crisis, a languishing tourism industry that is prone to experiencing permanent damage, and persistent elevated unemployment. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 6.6% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2022.Spain Economy Data
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Spain Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.46 | 5.62 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Spain Economic News
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Spain: Current account surplus narrows considerably at the end of 2020
February 26, 2021
Spain’s current account balance recorded a surplus of EUR 729 million in December 2020, significantly below both the EUR 2.2 billion surplus logged in December 2019 and November 2020’s EUR 3.3 billion surplus.
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Spain: Housing permits decline in December; housing prices fall for third consecutive quarter in Q4
February 25, 2021
The Spanish Board of Architects approved 7,059 new construction permits in December 2020, according to data published by the Ministry of Public Works.
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Spain: Industrial output contracts at softest pace in one year in December
February 8, 2021
Industrial production slid 0.6% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms in December 2020, after contracting 3.7% in November.
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Spain: Composite PMI falls further into contractionary terrain in January amid Covid-19 woes, weak demand and adverse weather conditions
February 3, 2021
Reflecting a sharp decline in services activity and a swing back to contraction by the manufacturing sector, the IHS Markit composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 43.2 in January from 48.7 in December 2020.
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Spain: Retail sales drop at softest pace in 10 months in December 2020
January 29, 2021
Retail sales slipped 0.6% compared to the same month of 2019 in December 2020, after falling 5.9% in November and marking the softest contraction since the onset of the pandemic in March.
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