Spain Economic Forecast

Spain Economic Outlook

September 26, 2017

The economy has soared so far this year thanks to healthy domestic demand, an upturn in global trade and improved competitiveness in the country’s exports. However, leading data for the third quarter suggests that economic momentum may have begun to peter out: Industrial output and retail sales growth softened in July, while employment growth as measured by Social Security affiliations decelerated for a fourth consecutive month in August. The August manufacturing and services PMI readings also painted a picture of potentially weaker, albeit still strong, growth in the third quarter. All told, however, the economy should continue to grow at a healthy clip in Q3 in spite of heightened political tensions in Catalonia, where the regional government intends to hold a contentious independence referendum on 1 October.

Spain Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.846.646.546.446.3
GDP per capita (EUR)22,23322,01322,32323,17724,045
GDP (EUR bn)1,0401,0261,0371,0761,114
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.9-1.71.43.23.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-5.1-3.21.93.42.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-3.6-3.21.62.83.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.6-3.43.86.03.1
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.14.34.24.94.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-6.4-0.56.55.63.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-1.51.23.22.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-7.0-3.90.93.63.7
Unemployment Rate24.826.124.422.119.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-10.5-7.0-6.0-5.1-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)85.795.510099.899.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)3.00.3-1.1-0.11.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.41.5-0.2-0.6-0.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.80.6-1.3-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-4.721.43.7-7.2-2.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.21.51.11.41.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.415.611.314.721.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-31.0-16.0-24.0-24.2-18.8

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Spain Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.59-2.46 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate1.18-0.32 %Oct 16
Stock Market10,181-0.75 %Oct 16

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Spain Economic Growth

September 26, 2017

Quarterly economic growth has repeatedly surprised to the upside, and our panelists now expect overall growth in 2017 to come in 3.1%, only a notch below last year’s figure. Next year, the economy is expected to cool slightly as some of the tailwinds continue dissipating. Panelists see growth of 2.6% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. An improving labor market will continue to shore up private consumption, while the external sector will be buttressed by relatively low labor costs.

Spain Economic News

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