Spain Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020After an unprecedented collapse in activity in Q2, recent data hints at a recovery that is already losing steam. Industrial production continued to cool midway through Q3, barely growing in monthly terms in August. Moreover, after returning to growth in July, the composite PMI slumped back into negative territory in August and fell deeper into contraction in September as the worsening of the health crisis pummeled services-sector activity. This, combined with consumer confidence remaining in the doldrums in Q3 and the reinstatement of stricter measures to combat the recent surge in virus cases, most notably in Catalonia and Madrid, bodes ill for household spending and thus the crucial services industry heading into Q4. Meanwhile, the government sent its 2021 draft budget to EU authorities for review on 15 October. The expansionary plan, which incorporates a slice of EU coronavirus recovery funds, should aid the revival of activity ahead.
Spain Economic GrowthAfter a severe recession this year due to the Covid-19 blow, the economy is seen rebounding strongly next year as domestic and foreign demand come back to life. That said, key downside risks remain, including the prolongation of the health crisis, a languishing tourism industry that is prone to experiencing permanent damage, and persistent elevated unemployment. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 6.6% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2022.
Spain Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.46||5.62 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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Spain Economic News
May 5, 2021
The IHS Markit composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped to an over two-year high of 55.2 in April from 50.1 in March, reflecting stronger growth in the manufacturing sector and the first expansion in the services sector since last July.
April 30, 2021
Retail sales jumped 18.1% compared to the same month of 2020 in March 2021, after plunging 9.6% in February, benefiting from an extremely low-base effect as March 2020 was the first month of the Covid-19 pandemic.
April 30, 2021
The economy fell back into contraction in the first quarter of 2021, as the tightening of restrictions amid another wave of Covid-19 infections weighed on domestic activity.
April 29, 2021
The Spanish Board of Architects approved 7,818 new construction permits in February, according to data published by the Ministry of Public Works.
April 29, 2021
The jobless rate dipped from 16.1% in Q4 2020 to 16.0% in the first quarter of 2021, when a third wave of Covid-19 infections hit the country.