North Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Incoming figures paint a bleak picture for Q3, after GDP declined at the steepest pace in nearly two decades in Q2 on the Covid-19 hit. Retail sales contracted sharply in the quarter, pointing at weak consumer demand. Moreover, industrial production decreased notably in July–September, despite the easing of coronavirus containment measures. Turning to the final quarter of the year, economic prospects are less than rosy due to the rapidly increasing number of new Covid-19 cases. In mid-October, the government reimposed restrictions in an attempt to restrain the spread of the virus—limiting the working hours of bars and restaurants, reducing capacity on public transport and recommending remote work—all of which are set to weigh on activity in Q4.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy is set to rebound in 2021, after this year’s projected contraction due to the coronavirus shock. Household and capital spending are seen bouncing back, supported by fiscal stimulus measures. Meanwhile, a pickup in global demand should boost the external sector. A prolongation of the health crisis clouds the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 5.4% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in 2022.

North Macedonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,8895,1745,5046,0076,194
GDP per capita (EUR)4,3814,6564,8385,1515,459
GDP (USD bn)10.110.711.412.512.9
GDP (EUR bn)9.19.710.010.711.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.81.12.73.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.92.13.73.5
Investment (annual variation in %)8.312.5-2.2-7.36.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.93.30.25.43.7
Unemployment Rate26.123.722.420.717.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.7-2.7-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.139.939.440.640.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.76.23.811.89.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.21.41.40.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.753.252.502.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5558.5051.2853.8054.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)55.4355.6954.6352.1854.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4161.5261.5361.7161.50
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.5061.6161.6061.5661.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-0.8-0.2-2.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.3-0.10.0-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.7-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.54.14.95.3
Imports (EUR billion)4.95.35.96.67.3
Exports (annual variation in %)9.415.815.519.89.1
Imports (annual variation in %)5.09.79.712.910.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.32.62.32.93.3
External Debt (% of GDP)66.870.074.870.1-  

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North Macedonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate54.86-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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