Macedonia Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022After growth moderated in Q4 2021, the economy likely cooled further in the first quarter of 2022. Industrial output volume in January–March averaged higher than in the previous quarter, thanks to a rebound in manufacturing activity in March. Moreover, a 16.8% increase in industrial turnover on the non-domestic market in Q1 pointed to robust foreign demand. That said, declining employment levels within the industrial sector and spikes in consumer prices likely dampened household spending. Retail sales growth also averaged at the lowest level in a year, further suggesting weaker private consumption. In Q2, a record-high inflation rate is eroding real disposable incomes and consumer confidence, boding poorly for spending. In addition, the war in Ukraine and lingering supply shocks should be weighing on industrial activity amid rising global commodity prices, input shortages and logistical delays.
North Macedonia Economic GrowthGrowth should slow markedly from 2021’s reading due to lingering supply shocks and more than decade-high global commodity prices knocking private spending and the external sector. That said, fiscal stimulus and excess savings should support domestic demand, while EU funds should buoy fixed investment. The fallout from the war in Ukraine and energy uncertainty pose risks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 2.9% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2023.
North Macedonia Economy Data
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North Macedonia Facts
|Exchange Rate||54.86||-0.56 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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