Macedonia Economic Outlook

September 8, 2020

GDP will have contracted notably in Q2 on the blow from the coronavirus health crisis. Industrial output nosedived in the quarter as the full force of containment measures hammered activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, retail sales declined sharply in Q2, spelling trouble for household spending. Turning to Q3, although containment measures have been relaxed, incoming data continues to paint a bleak picture: Industrial production fell markedly in July, while retail sales tumbled further in the same month. In politics, on 30 August, the parliament approved the new coalition government led by the Social Democrats, following snap elections on 15 July. Reform continuation for potential EU accession is to be expected.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

The Covid-19 pandemic is set to pummel the economy this year. Weak EU demand and travel restrictions will constrain the external sector, while containment measures will hammer domestic demand. Although fiscal relief measures should cushion the fallout somewhat, a potential second wave of Covid-19 infections poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to contract 4.9% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 5.5% in 2021.

North Macedonia Economy Data

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Population (million)	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
GDP per capita (USD)	4,889	5,174	5,504	6,007	6,194
GDP per capita (EUR)	4,381	4,656	4,838	5,151	5,459
GDP (USD bn)	10.1	10.7	11.4	12.5	12.9
GDP (EUR bn)	9.1	9.7	10.0	10.7	11.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.9	2.8	1.1	2.7	3.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)	4.4	3.9	2.1	3.7	3.5
Investment (annual variation in %)	8.3	12.5	-2.2	-7.3	6.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	4.9	3.3	0.2	5.4	3.7
Unemployment Rate	26.1	23.7	22.4	20.7	17.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-3.5	-2.7	-2.7	-1.8	-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	38.1	39.9	39.4	40.6	40.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	7.7	6.2	3.8	11.8	9.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	-0.3	-0.2	1.4	1.4	0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.25	3.75	3.25	2.50	2.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	56.55	58.50	51.28	53.80	54.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	55.43	55.69	54.63	52.18	54.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	61.41	61.52	61.53	61.71	61.50
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	61.50	61.61	61.60	61.56	61.46
Current Account (% of GDP)	-1.9	-2.9	-0.8	-0.2	-2.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8	-1.7	-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)	3.0	3.5	4.1	4.9	5.3
Imports (EUR billion)	4.9	5.3	5.9	6.6	7.3
Exports (annual variation in %)	9.4	15.8	15.5	19.8	9.1
Imports (annual variation in %)	5.0	9.7	9.7	12.9	10.2
International Reserves (EUR)	2.3	2.6	2.3	2.9	3.3
External Debt (% of GDP)	66.8	70.0	74.8	70.1	-

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North Macedonia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	54.86	-0.56 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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Macedonia Economic Outlook

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