Macedonia Economic Outlook

February 11, 2020

Economic growth appears to have maintained momentum in the fourth quarter on the heels of the third quarter’s acceleration. Private consumption was likely upbeat in Q4, given rising net wages in November, and as reflected by robust retail sales growth in the quarter. Meanwhile, business confidence edged higher in Q4, boosted by an improved assessment of the current economic situation. This should have translated into stronger investment in the final quarter of the year and possibly at the start of 2020 too. On the downside, industrial production faltered again in December, dragged down by declining energy supply and manufacturing output. On the political front, in early January Parliament approved a caretaker government, after Prime Minister Zoran Zaev resigned, ahead of the parliamentary elections in April.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

Economic growth will likely remain broadly steady this year. An improving labor market and more accommodative financial conditions should sustain household outlays, while a looser fiscal stance should also support growth. A slowing Euro area, political uncertainty ahead of April’s parliamentary elections and delayed EU accession talks are the key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 3.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2021.

North Macedonia Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
GDP per capita (USD)	5,493	4,869	5,150	5,440	6,093
GDP per capita (EUR)	4,142	4,388	4,655	4,824	5,164
GDP (USD bn)	11.4	10.1	10.7	11.3	12.7
GDP (EUR bn)	8.6	9.1	9.7	10.0	10.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.6	3.9	2.8	1.1	2.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.2	4.4	3.9	2.1	3.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	10.7	8.3	12.5	-2.2	-7.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	4.8	4.9	3.3	0.2	5.4
Unemployment Rate	28.0	26.1	23.7	22.4	20.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-4.2	-3.5	-2.7	-2.7	-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	38.1	38.1	39.9	39.4	40.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	7.3	7.7	6.2	3.8	11.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	1.4	1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.25	3.25	3.75	3.25	2.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	50.61	56.55	58.50	51.28	53.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	46.42	55.43	55.69	54.63	52.18
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	61.22	61.41	61.52	61.53	61.71
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	61.57	61.50	61.61	61.60	61.56
Current Account (% of GDP)	-0.6	-1.9	-2.9	-0.8	-0.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	0.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1	0.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.9	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8	-1.7
Exports (EUR billion)	2.8	3.0	3.5	4.1	4.9
Imports (EUR billion)	4.6	4.9	5.3	5.9	6.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	17.2	9.4	15.8	15.5	19.8
Imports (annual variation in %)	9.5	5.0	9.7	9.7	12.9
International Reserves (EUR)	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.3	2.9
External Debt (% of GDP)	63.6	67.1	70.3	75.7	69.1

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North Macedonia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	54.86	-0.56 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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Macedonia Economic Outlook

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