North Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

October 1, 2019

Economic growth moderated in the second quarter, weighed on by the slowdown in the European Union. On the upside, private consumption strengthened in the same period on the back of strong wage increases and a steady decline in the unemployment rate. Moreover, investment surged in the period, although it mostly reflected a base effect from last year and is expected to moderate in the second half of the year amid slowing foreign direct investment. Turning to the third quarter, available data suggests that the economy continues to expand at a similar pace as in Q2, with wages posting another solid gain in July and industrial production expanding strongly in August. On the downside, tourist arrivals remained weak in July. Meanwhile, on the political front, despite recent support from European Council President Donald Tusk, there is no date to start EU accession negations.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate this year on strong wage gains and solid investment, before flattening next year. External headwinds will likely weigh on the performance of the external sector, however, while potential political unrest ahead of the 2020 parliamentary elections, subdued economic growth in the European Union and the slow pace of EU accession talks are key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.2% in 2019 from last month’s forecast and 3.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

North Macedonia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)5,2205,4934,8695,1505,440
GDP per capita (EUR)3,9304,1424,3884,6554,824
GDP (USD bn)10.811.410.110.711.3
GDP (EUR bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)0.510.78.312.50.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate29.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.2-3.5-2.7-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.3-0.3-0.21.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.6750.6156.5558.5051.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)46.5446.4255.4355.6954.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4061.2261.4161.5261.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.8161.5761.5061.6161.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.6-0.6-1.9-2.9-0.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.10.0-0.2-0.3-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)
Imports (EUR billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)2.917.29.415.915.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)62.563.667.169.175.9

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North Macedonia Facts

Exchange Rate54.66-0.56 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 04

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