Macedonia Economic Outlook
July 30, 2019Momentum likely waned somewhat in the second quarter after GDP hit an over two-year high in the first quarter. Tourism seems to have weakened in Q2 as overnight stays dropped sharply in May, more than offsetting April’s modest pick-up and was likely a key factor in the softer retail sales growth seen in Q2. Meanwhile, industrial production slowed in April and May on falling manufacturing output. That said, FDI inflows and sustained investment should have cushioned the slowdown. In politics, Parliament approved Prime Minister Zoran Zaev’s cabinet reshuffle in late June; the reshuffle was triggered in an effort to focus on economic reforms amid diminishing public support. This comes on the heels of the European Commission’s delayed a decision on opening accession talks—a key component of the party’s agenda—until no later than October.
North Macedonia Economic GrowthEconomic growth should accelerate this year, driven by a solid recovery in investment. Moreover, a calmer political environment and progress on the reform agenda should improve the business climate and attract more FDI. A slowdown across Europe, which could dampen export demand and FDI inflows, represents the principal risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.
North Macedonia Economy Data
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North Macedonia Facts
|Exchange Rate||55.24||-0.56 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jul 31|
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