North Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

GDP growth slowed considerably in Q3, chiefly due to a fading base effect. Growth in household spending and fixed investment recorded sharp decelerations, while the external sector supported activity as exports expanded at a faster pace than imports. Moving to the final quarter of 2021, available data paints a mixed picture. Retail sales growth eased on average in October-November compared to Q3, likely weighed on by soaring inflation. However, industrial production improved in October, pointing to stronger private sector dynamics. In politics, the ruling left-wing SDSM party elected Dimitar Kovacevski as its leader and President Stevo Pendarovski endorsed him as the country's prime minister-designate in late December, following the resignation of Zoran Zaev. Meanwhile, the IMF recently encouraged the country to strengthen public financial management in order to limit fiscal risks.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

GDP looks set for a solid expansion this year. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies should provide a short-term boost to domestic demand, which will also benefit from excess savings. Moreover, the lifting of restrictions should support the tourism sector. However, pandemic-related uncertainty, high energy prices and lingering supply constraints pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 4.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.6% in 2023.

North Macedonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,8895,1745,5046,0076,194
GDP per capita (EUR)4,3814,6564,8385,1515,459
GDP (USD bn)10.110.711.412.512.9
GDP (EUR bn)9.19.710.010.711.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.81.12.73.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.92.13.73.5
Investment (annual variation in %)8.312.5-2.2-7.36.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.93.30.25.43.7
Unemployment Rate26.123.722.420.717.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.7-2.7-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.139.939.440.640.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.76.23.811.89.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.21.41.40.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.753.252.502.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5558.5051.2853.8054.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)55.4355.6954.6352.1854.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4161.5261.5361.7161.50
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.5061.6161.6061.5661.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-0.8-0.2-2.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.3-0.10.0-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.7-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.54.14.95.3
Imports (EUR billion)4.95.35.96.67.3
Exports (annual variation in %)9.415.815.519.89.1
Imports (annual variation in %)5.09.79.712.910.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.32.62.32.93.3
External Debt (% of GDP)66.870.074.870.1-  

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North Macedonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate54.86-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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