North Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

After growth moderated in Q4 2021, the economy likely cooled further in the first quarter of 2022. Industrial output volume in January–March averaged higher than in the previous quarter, thanks to a rebound in manufacturing activity in March. Moreover, a 16.8% increase in industrial turnover on the non-domestic market in Q1 pointed to robust foreign demand. That said, declining employment levels within the industrial sector and spikes in consumer prices likely dampened household spending. Retail sales growth also averaged at the lowest level in a year, further suggesting weaker private consumption. In Q2, a record-high inflation rate is eroding real disposable incomes and consumer confidence, boding poorly for spending. In addition, the war in Ukraine and lingering supply shocks should be weighing on industrial activity amid rising global commodity prices, input shortages and logistical delays.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

Growth should slow markedly from 2021’s reading due to lingering supply shocks and more than decade-high global commodity prices knocking private spending and the external sector. That said, fiscal stimulus and excess savings should support domestic demand, while EU funds should buoy fixed investment. The fallout from the war in Ukraine and energy uncertainty pose risks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 2.9% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2023.

North Macedonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,8895,1745,5046,0076,194
GDP per capita (EUR)4,3814,6564,8385,1515,459
GDP (USD bn)10.110.711.412.512.9
GDP (EUR bn)9.19.710.010.711.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.81.12.73.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.92.13.73.5
Investment (annual variation in %)8.312.5-2.2-7.36.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.93.30.25.43.7
Unemployment Rate26.123.722.420.717.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.7-2.7-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.139.939.440.640.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.76.23.811.89.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.21.41.40.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.753.252.502.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5558.5051.2853.8054.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)55.4355.6954.6352.1854.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4161.5261.5361.7161.50
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.5061.6161.6061.5661.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-0.8-0.2-2.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.3-0.10.0-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.7-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.54.14.95.3
Imports (EUR billion)4.95.35.96.67.3
Exports (annual variation in %)9.415.815.519.89.1
Imports (annual variation in %)5.09.79.712.910.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.32.62.32.93.3
External Debt (% of GDP)66.870.074.870.1-  

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North Macedonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate54.86-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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