Macedonia Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Although comprehensive GDP figures have yet to be released, the economy likely performed fairly well in the first quarter. Industrial production growth strengthened, while export growth was brisk thanks to healthy EU demand. However, both wage and retail sales growth dipped compared to Q4, hinting at a potential slowdown in private consumption. Turning to the first month of the second quarter, industrial production maintained its strong momentum, although retail sales growth ebbed further. On the political front, in late May the European Commission recommended that the European Council open accession talks with North Macedonia. This could potentially occur as soon as the June Council meeting, although some EU members are likely to have reservations.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy should accelerate in 2019, spearheaded by a recovery in investment. On the upside, potential progress on the EU-accession agenda could improve the business climate; on the downside, a slowdown in the EU will likely dampen the external sector. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

North Macedonia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
GDP per capita (USD)	5,128	5,625	4,882	5,210	5,530
GDP per capita (EUR)	3,921	4,138	4,381	4,687	4,847
GDP (USD bn)	10.6	11.6	10.1	10.8	11.5
GDP (EUR bn)	8.1	8.6	9.1	9.7	10.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.9	3.8	3.9	2.9	0.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)	1.9	2.1	4.5	3.1	2.9
Investment (annual variation in %)	0.5	10.7	8.3	13.3	-4.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	3.2	4.8	4.9	3.4	0.2
Unemployment Rate	29.0	28.0	26.1	23.7	22.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-3.8	-4.2	-3.5	-2.7	-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)	40.3	45.8	46.6	48.5	47.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	0.2	7.2	7.6	6.1	4.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.8	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.75	3.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	44.67	50.61	56.55	58.50	51.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	46.54	46.42	55.43	55.69	54.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	61.40	61.22	61.41	61.52	61.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	61.81	61.57	61.50	61.61	61.60
Current Account (% of GDP)	-1.7	-0.6	-1.9	-2.8	-1.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.1	0.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.9	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)	2.4	2.7	3.0	3.5	4.0
Imports (EUR billion)	4.3	4.5	4.8	5.3	5.8
Exports (annual variation in %)	3.9	10.9	12.6	14.0	16.8
Imports (annual variation in %)	-1.0	3.8	7.7	8.6	10.5
International Reserves (EUR)	2.0	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.3
External Debt (% of GDP)	63.6	62.1	66.9	68.3	-

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North Macedonia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	54.46	-0.56 %	Jun 20
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jun 20

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