Macedonia Economic Outlook

July 30, 2019

Momentum likely waned somewhat in the second quarter after GDP hit an over two-year high in the first quarter. Tourism seems to have weakened in Q2 as overnight stays dropped sharply in May, more than offsetting April’s modest pick-up and was likely a key factor in the softer retail sales growth seen in Q2. Meanwhile, industrial production slowed in April and May on falling manufacturing output. That said, FDI inflows and sustained investment should have cushioned the slowdown. In politics, Parliament approved Prime Minister Zoran Zaev’s cabinet reshuffle in late June; the reshuffle was triggered in an effort to focus on economic reforms amid diminishing public support. This comes on the heels of the European Commission’s delayed a decision on opening accession talks—a key component of the party’s agenda—until no later than October.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

Economic growth should accelerate this year, driven by a solid recovery in investment. Moreover, a calmer political environment and progress on the reform agenda should improve the business climate and attract more FDI. A slowdown across Europe, which could dampen export demand and FDI inflows, represents the principal risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.

North Macedonia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
GDP per capita (USD)	5,220	5,493	4,869	5,150	5,440
GDP per capita (EUR)	3,930	4,142	4,388	4,655	4,824
GDP (USD bn)	10.8	11.4	10.1	10.7	11.3
GDP (EUR bn)	8.1	8.6	9.1	9.7	10.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.9	3.6	3.9	2.8	0.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	1.9	2.2	4.4	3.9	0.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	0.5	10.7	8.3	12.5	0.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	3.2	4.8	4.9	3.4	0.2
Unemployment Rate	29.0	28.0	26.1	23.7	22.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-3.8	-4.2	-3.5	-2.7	-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)	34.0	38.1	38.1	39.9	39.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	0.1	7.3	7.7	6.2	3.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.8	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.75	3.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	44.67	50.61	56.55	58.50	51.28
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	46.54	46.42	55.43	55.69	54.63
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	61.40	61.22	61.41	61.52	61.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	61.81	61.57	61.50	61.61	61.60
Current Account (% of GDP)	-1.6	-0.6	-1.9	-2.9	-0.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)	-0.1	0.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)	-1.9	-1.9	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)	2.4	2.8	3.0	3.5	4.1
Imports (EUR billion)	4.2	4.6	4.9	5.3	5.9
Exports (annual variation in %)	2.9	17.2	9.4	15.9	15.4
Imports (annual variation in %)	-1.8	9.5	5.0	9.7	9.7
International Reserves (EUR)	2.0	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.3
External Debt (% of GDP)	62.5	63.6	67.1	69.1	75.9

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North Macedonia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	55.24	-0.56 %	Jul 31
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jul 31

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Macedonia Economic Outlook

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