North Macedonia Economic Forecast

Macedonia Economic Outlook

September 7, 2021

Economic conditions seemingly improved in Q2, after GDP shrank at a somewhat sharper pace in Q1. Retail sales rose strongly year-on-year in the quarter, hinting at firming household spending, while a sharp bounce-back in industrial production points to healthier private sector activity. Meanwhile, merchandise exports and tourist arrivals also jumped compared to Q2 2020. That said, all indicators benefited from an extremely low base effect. The recovery in activity should have carried over into Q3, albeit at a more moderate pace, as suggested by softer but still-healthy growth in retail sales in July. Fiscal data for January-July, which shows the budget deficit narrowed considerably from 2020, is a further sign of recovery. Meanwhile, on 23 August S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s credit rating at BB-, highlighting the stability of its banking system.

North Macedonia Economic Growth

The economy should recover some of last year’s losses in 2021, benefiting from solid growth in household and capital spending. Moreover, strong foreign demand amid the easing of restrictions abroad is set to support the external sector. However, uncertainty over new variants of Covid-19 and the speed of the vaccine rollout clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in 2022.

North Macedonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,8895,1745,5046,0076,194
GDP per capita (EUR)4,3814,6564,8385,1515,459
GDP (USD bn)10.110.711.412.512.9
GDP (EUR bn)9.19.710.010.711.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.81.12.73.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.92.13.73.5
Investment (annual variation in %)8.312.5-2.2-7.36.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.93.30.25.43.7
Unemployment Rate26.123.722.420.717.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.7-2.7-1.8-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)38.139.939.440.640.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.76.23.811.89.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.21.41.40.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.753.252.502.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5558.5051.2853.8054.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)55.4355.6954.6352.1854.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)61.4161.5261.5361.7161.50
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)61.5061.6161.6061.5661.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-0.8-0.2-2.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.3-0.10.0-0.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.7-2.0
Exports (EUR billion)3.03.54.14.95.3
Imports (EUR billion)4.95.35.96.67.3
Exports (annual variation in %)9.415.815.519.89.1
Imports (annual variation in %)5.09.79.712.910.2
International Reserves (EUR)2.32.62.32.93.3
External Debt (% of GDP)66.870.074.870.1-  

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North Macedonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate54.86-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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