New Zealand Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019The latest national accounts data revealed that economic activity expanded at the slowest pace in nearly five years on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3 2018, dragged by weaker domestic demand and a downbeat external sector. Deteriorating fixed investment and government spending dampened growth as the Kaikoura earthquake repairs came to a conclusion, with construction activity consequently contracting in the third quarter. Furthermore, industrial production grew meagerly from the previous quarter, on a deterioration in manufacturing output. On a brighter note, private consumption supported growth in the third quarter, underpinned by low unemployment and faster wage growth. On the external front, exports decelerated from Q2’s peak, weighed on by slower-than-anticipated growth in China; falling imports, however, partly offset the slowdown. Year-end data, meanwhile, points towards a better fourth quarter, owing to a revival in business sentiment and increased tourist arrivals.
New Zealand Economic GrowthLooking ahead, growth is expected to maintain its momentum this year, on the back of healthy household spending as consumers benefit from subdued price pressures and tight labor market conditions. Low interest rates and a trailing fiscal surplus are also seen supporting economic activity in the short-term. Meanwhile, exports growth will be supported by the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which came into effect on 30 December and slashed tariffs for agricultural products in major markets. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
New Zealand Economy Data
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New Zealand Facts
|Bond Yield||2.35||1.20 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||0.69||-1.69 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||3,958||0.11 %||Jan 30|
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New Zealand Economic News
April 17, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in Q1 2019 over the previous quarter, matching Q4 2018’s uptick, according to Statistics New Zealand.
March 29, 2019
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator ticked up to 121.8 in March, from February’s 120.8.
March 28, 2019
The ANZ bank business outlook indicator started the year on weaker footing after recording a second consecutive drop in March, which pushed the index further down into pessimistic territory.
March 27, 2019
At its second meeting of the year, on 27 March, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at a record low of 1.75%, where it has been since November 2016.
March 19, 2019
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, the economy grew 0.6% in quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter of last year, up from Q3’s 0.3% outturn and in line with analysts’ expectations.