New Zealand Economic Outlook
August 20, 2019The economy seems to have remained on an even keel following the first quarter’s relatively soft outturn, when a cooling services sector offset solid expansions across the manufacturing and construction sectors. On the one hand, unemployment fell to a 11-year low in Q2, while average consumer confidence was slightly more upbeat and the kiwi was relatively strong in the same period. This suggests consumer demand was healthy in Q2, further reflected by robust electronic card transactions growth in the quarter. On the other hand, downbeat business sentiment, which remained deeply entrenched in pessimistic territory in Q2, boded ill for investment activity growth, while merchandise export growth slowed amid ongoing global trade spats. Turning to the second half of the year, the Central Bank’s aggressive rate cut in August should bolster growth ahead.
New Zealand Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to slow this year as feeble business confidence curbs investment activity and household spending growth continues to lose momentum. Nevertheless, a more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy should cushion the overall slowdown. Meanwhile, escalating global trade tensions and weaker growth in Australia and China cloud external sectors outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 2.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% again in 2020.
New Zealand Economy Data
5 years of New Zealand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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New Zealand Facts
|Bond Yield||1.47||1.20 %||Jul 31|
|Exchange Rate||0.66||-1.69 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||4,733||0.11 %||Jul 31|
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New Zealand Economic News
August 7, 2019
On 7 August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised market analysts by slashing the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to an all-time low of 1.00%.
August 6, 2019
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in Q2, down from 4.2% in Q1.
August 2, 2019
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator dropped to 116.4 in July (June: 122.6), moving closer to the 100-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism among consumers. Consumers were less optimistic about their current financial situation, and they also grew less confident about their future financial conditions.
July 31, 2019
The ANZ bank business outlook indicator fell by 6.2 points in July, with a net 44.3% of firms reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate this year.
July 16, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.6% in Q2 2019 over the previous quarter, up notably from Q1 0.1% uptick, according to Statistics New Zealand.