New Zealand Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018Available data indicates the economy went through a softer patch in Q3 compared to Q2, which saw GDP expand at the strongest quarterly pace in two years on the back of higher public and private expenditure. Growth of retail sales was essentially flat in Q3 as higher fuel prices weighed on household budgets, hinting that consumer spending lost stride in the quarter. Furthermore, although overall construction volume reached a new high in Q3, the pace at which it rose moderated from Q2 due to stagnant building activity in the non-residential sector, likely dragging on overall investment gains. Meanwhile, electronic card spending declined on a monthly basis, on average, in October–November which, coupled with lower consumer confidence in the same two-month period, are early signs that relatively soft dynamics persist in Q4. This is further supported by weak external sector metrics, in which the third largest ever monthly goods trade deficit was recorded in October, exceeded only by the previous two months.
New Zealand Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to remain strong next year, largely driven by robust private expenditure as household incomes benefit from a tight labor market, gradually increasing wages and rising housing prices. Low interest rates and ample fiscal space for increased stimulus are also set to support near-term growth prospects. Slower-than-anticipated growth in China, New Zealand’s most important trading partner, is a key downside risk to the outlook as it could hurt export activity. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
New Zealand Economy Data
5 years of New Zealand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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New Zealand Facts
|Bond Yield||2.51||1.20 %||Dec 12|
|Exchange Rate||0.69||-1.69 %||Dec 12|
|Stock Market||3,875||0.11 %||Dec 12|
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New Zealand Economic News
November 30, 2018
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator climbed to 118.6 in November from 115.4 in October, which had marked the lowest reading in three years.
November 29, 2018
The ANZ Bank Business Outlook indicator showed that a net 37.1% of surveyed firms were pessimistic over general business conditions in the year ahead in November, unchanged from October.
November 8, 2018
At its last meeting of the year held on 8 November, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at a record-low 1.75%, where it has been since November 2016.
November 7, 2018
New Zealand’s labor market tightened further in the third quarter of the year.
November 2, 2018
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence indicator slipped from 117.6 in September to 115.4 in October, landing below the historical average and marking the lowest reading in three years.